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[Aaron Strife]

IAlso, Quinnipiac has a new poll out that shows the Democrats up by nine on the congressional generic ballot:

They're going to win the House. gg PD

 

[Tamanon]

I think Obama and Democrats have really screwed themselves over with young people due to the NSA, because that's apparently all a lot of them can think about. There's going to be even more apathy than usual going forward.

I think you overestimate how many people care about the NSA.

 

[Crisco]

I think Obama and Democrats have really screwed themselves over with young people due to the NSA, because that's apparently all a lot of them can think about. There's going to be even more apathy than usual going forward.

Yes, the generation of people who literally post up to the minute updates of their daily lives for all the world to see care about the government peaking into their email. It was a nice story during the summer when the only other thing to pay attention to was baseball. No one cares anymore.

 

[PhoenixDark]

And by young people you mean libertarians?

Chuck Todd said the WH believes the NSA hurt them more than anything this summer; it sounds like internal polling was mixed on the IRS nonsense but pretty stark on NSA. Personally it's a case of chickens coming home to roost. The administration has been horrible on civil liberties since the beginning, worse than Bush, but a lot of people were oblivious until Snowden. I really believe that ended Obama's long lasting appeal amongst many young people. There has also been a noticeable change in Jon Stewart's tone on the WH since then.

I've said it before but democrats are lucky as fuck that the other party is insane. A solid, non crazy/bigot could have given Obama a run for his money last year.

 

[JesseEwiak]

I think you overestimate how many people care about the NSA.

Yup. Remember, you're on a heavily trafficked niche website about electronics. Throw in the white male lean of gamers in general and you have a recipe of over representation.

A large number of those people, especially those under 30 don't know the history of actual civil rights violations in the US. The government reading your email is a litttlllleeee different than say, what is happening to various non-white males even today in the US The truth is, most people don't care about the NSA at all and many of those opposed on the conservative side would shut the hell up once a President Christie is on office.

Actual polling shows Obama as extremely popular within the younger generation and that generation is still by far the most liberal group among the population.

 

[Tamanon]

Chuck Todd said the WH believes the NSA hurt them more than anything this summer; it sounds like internal polling was mixed on the IRS nonsense but pretty stark on NSA. Personally it's a case of chickens coming home to roost. The administration has been horrible on civil liberties since the beginning, worse than Bush, but a lot of people were oblivious until Snowden. I really believe that ended Obama's long lasting appeal amongst many young people. There has also been a noticeable change in Jon Stewart's tone on the WH since then.

I've said it before but democrats are lucky as fuck that the other party is insane. A solid, non crazy/bigot could have given Obama a run for his money last year.

Hm? In what world is Romney a crazy or a bigot?

 

[gcubed]

I wonder if the GOP realizes that by doing all this nonsense and getting absolutely nowhere they are doing more to raise public awareness about the exchanges then Obama ever could have dreamed of doing.

All the money the GOP held back in states trying to kill the exchanges or at least awareness of the exchanges is all for naught, as the boys in DC just lit up a huge billboard telling everyone about the exchanges.

 

[Clevinger]

No one cares anymore.

*shrug*

It's anecdotal, but pretty much the only time I see young people talking about politics it's to lament about the NSA. I'm not saying they really truly care about it, but it's just another big reason to not pay attention to politics, to not vote for Democrats, and to not give Democrats the benefit of the doubt.

It's not going to create some mass exodus of young people from the party; it's just going to make a not insignificant chunk of them even more apathetic to other important things. And I can't really blame them that much either.

 

[Fox318]

I woke up today and it was sunny outside with the Government shutdown. Proof we don't need government.

#Bohnerwasright #ImwithRonPaul #howaboutnobama

 

[PhoenixDark]

Hm? In what world is Romney a crazy or a bigot?

Romney ran on a more extreme foreign policy than George Bush, advocated deep Medicare cuts, and supported SS privatization. If that's not "crazy" I don't know what is.

Bigot may be too strong of a word but the fact remains that his ignorant positions on gay marriage and immigration lowered his potential voter base. Obama has a lot of support simply due to being the only candidate who isn't questioning the rights of gay and brown people.

I don't want to re-litigate the past but Obama was quite vunerable last year. The problem is that republicans didn't have a candidate who could take advantage of it. Huntsman maybe, perhaps Christie. But even Christie is opposed to gay marriage, at least politically; I bet he privatelydoesn't care who gets married.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

Steve Israel is probably the happiest person in Washington right now.

 

[JesseEwiak]

Romney ran on a more extreme foreign policy than George Bush, advocated deep Medicare cuts, and supported SS privatization. If that's not "crazy" I don't know what is.

Bigot may be too strong of a word but the fact remains that his ignorant positions on gay marriage and immigration lowered his potential voter base. Obama has a lot of support simply due to being the only candidate who isn't questioning the rights of gay and brown people.

I don't want to re-litigate the past but Obama was quite vunerable last year. The problem is that republicans didn't have a candidate who could take advantage of it. Huntsman maybe, perhaps Christie. But even Christie is opposed to gay marriage, at least politically; I bet he privatelydoesn't care who gets married.

I think Obama's vulnearability was overhyped. Even at his worst, he was still in the mid-40's for an apporval rating. The last three incumbents who didn't actually get reelected were all hovering the 30's (Carter, HW Bush, LBJ) in the year before the election.

In theory, there was a Republican who could beat Obama. But, much to the gnashing of teeth of liberals, Obama took centrist positions on national security and the debt, thus forcing the GOP to the right on those issues. A reasonable Republican could've actually threataned Obama if he had actually tried to massively cut the defense budget and not care about the debt at all. However, since he essentially took Clintonian-Reaganite position on those issues, the GOP had no where to go.

 

[TacticalFox88]

The foreign press greeted news of the first U.S. government shutdown in 17 years with dismay and bemusement, but little surprise. From Russia to India to England, newspapers zeroed in on partisan polarization as the root of the budget impasse, citing possible impacts on world markets, security, and tourism.

Asian markets held steady at the news of the shutdown on Tuesday, as global investors were already anticipating the Congressional stalemate. However, world commentators are beginning to worry Congressional gridlock will bring down other fragile economic recoveries with them.

India: The Indian press had strong feelings about the shutdown. “World holds breath as US government shutdown imminent,” The Times of India reported. Its business paper, The Economic Times, took a different tack: “US faces shutdown, ‘fiscal cliff’: It’s advantage India?” But don’t forget the home front: “Forget US shutdown, India might be on the verge of a shutdown,” fretted Shishir Asthana in the Business Standard. Indian business executives also told the Voice of America they could not understand how a developed country like the U.S. could shut down its government because of a legislative impasse.

China: China’s state-run Xinhua news agency warned tourists heading to America that popular destinations, such as national parks and monuments in Washington, D.C., might be closed. The Voice of America, noting that “the news of the shutdown was covered extensively by domestic media throughout Asia on Tuesday,” collated Chinese reactions that ranged from worried to almost comically optimistic. VoA interviewed Professor Chen Qi at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy in Beijing, who “opined that if this had happened in another country, it might be more problematic, but he trusts that the maturity of the U.S. government and American politicians will ‘have the wisdom to come to a consensus and solve this issue smoothly,’ especially since they have been down this road numerous times previously.”

The United Kingdom: The British press, known for its arch reactions to crises, didn’t disappoint. “America shuts down,” blared The Daily Mail, Britain’s most notorious tabloid. “David Cameron warns on world growth as US government shuts down,” The Independent reported. “It is a risk to the world economy if the US can’t properly sort out its spending plans,” Cameron told BBC Radio 4 on Tuesday.
But perhaps the harshest coverage came from the stolid BBC. In a piece titled “US shutdown has other nations confused and concerned,” Anthony Zurcher wrote, “For most of the world, a government shutdown is very bad news – the result of revolution, invasion or disaster. Even in the middle of its ongoing civil war, the Syrian government has continued to pay its bills and workers’ wages. That leaders of one of the most powerful nations on earth willingly provoked a crisis that suspends public services and decreases economic growth is astonishing to many…Now, as the latest shutdown crisis plays out, policymakers in other nations are left to ponder the worldwide impact of the impasse.”

Russia: The state-run media, naturally, had a field day. The Moscow Times, an independent paper, summarized the reaction: “The budgetary battle made headlines in Russian media on Monday. “The ‘Elephants’ Are Robbing the U.S. Government,” read a headline in the government-run Rossiiskaya Gazeta, referring to the symbol for the Republican Party. The state television broadcaster Vesti cautioned, “The U.S. government may be left penniless on Tuesday.” The Times itself worried about the effect of “federal government without money” on “the issuance of U.S. visas to Russians or support to cosmonauts on the International Space Station.”

Germany: The German press erupted in criticism for American politicians on Tuesday. Der Spiegel Online proclaimed, “A superpower has paralyzed itself,” while The Welt predicted “fatal consequences” that could damage the U.S. recovery. The Zeit newspaper blamed a “handful of radicals,” stating, “A small group of uncompromising Republican ideologues in the House of Representatives are principally responsive for this disaster. They are not only taking their own party to the brink, but the whole country. Unfortunately the leadership of this party has neither had the courage nor the backbone to put them in their place.”

France: France’s Le Monde called the shutdown “grotesque” and noted that American cemeteries in France will be closed. On the editorial page, Le Monde dramatically lamented, “Jefferson, wake up, they’ve gone crazy!”

Italy: Italy, mired in its own financial and political crisis, warned against the U.S. shutdown’s serious economic consequences. The newspaper Corriere della Sera called the shutdown a huge blow to U.S. and global economic recovery, noting that sequestration has already done significant damage to Washington in particular.

South Korea: Seoul paper Chosun Ilbo ran a story assuring Koreans that the U.S. will not reduce its military presence in South Korea despite budgetary upheaval at home. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, who is on a four day trip to South Korea, acknowledged that the Pentagon was under pressure to cut spending, but would maintain the 28,500 troops in South Korea regardless.

Global media may be less than shocked at this shutdown after watching Congress push the nation to the brink of economic collapse during the 2011 debt ceiling negotiations. At the time, foreign editorial pages lit up with criticism, denigrating Congress as “dangerously irresponsible” and “a laughing stock.” We can be thankful for one thing: not one of these papers covered the government shutdown as brutally as the American press would have if it were happening in another country.

In other words, we're a goddamn laughing stock.

Ugh.

 

[Sirpopopop]

Most of the "undecided voter" chatter I've heard continues to confirm my belief that Aaron's comic skewering them was on target.

Essentially they are relying on the standby of, "A pox on both of your houses," even though the fault here is clearly on the House Republicans. Holding funding as hostage to trying to overturning democratically passed legislation by both houses signed into a law by a President who ran on health insurance reform is inexcusable.

Yet, the undecideds only see it as, "Obama and Republicans are both incompetent!!!!!!!1111111!!!!"

 

[PhoenixDark]

Remember that time when republicans had a conversation about bad polling and deceptive consultants purposely misleading conservatives to increase fundraising?

Internal polling conducted by New Jersey senatorial candidate Steve Lonegan’s campaign and obtained by National Review Online shows Newark mayor Cory Booker’s lead slipping to six points, 48 to 42. A Quinnipiac poll released last week showed Booker leading Lonegan by 12 points, and even that poll was considered a positive sign for the former Bogota mayor, as the earliest tallies showed Booker ahead by over 20 points.

The latest internal numbers for Lonegan also show Booker’s negatives inching up. “Booker is 37-27 net favorable, a major shift from the 42-18 numbers he held two weeks ago,” a memo from pollsters to the campaign reads. Nonetheless, the pollsters find significant advantages for the celebrity mayor, who, they note, is “still getting a significant share of the suburban and Republican vote.”

Regardless, it is clear that Booker — who was expected to waltz to victory in this race — now has a real competition on his hands.

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/360040/bookers-lead-slips-six-points-alec-torres

Currently being RT'd by Bryan Fisher and other far right luminaries.

 

[Aaron Strife]

PPP Dems + 5 on generic ballot

Thanks for the majority, Boehner.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Obama is perfectly taking advantage of his speech to pimp the healthcare law.

Too bad the site isn't working and isn't as concise as I assumed it would be. You shouldn't have to sign up just to see actual prices in your state.

 

[Crisco]

Yeah, the shutdown is the best PR opportunity for Obamacare ever.

 

[Wilsongt]

While Republicans in the House are looking awful right now, we have to remember that midterm elections are over a year away, people who tend to vote democrat usually don't show up in large numbers during midterms, and the average American voter as the memory of a goldfish.

I highly doubt many of the Republicans are going anywhere for a while...

 

[Black Republican]

Boom.

thats alot of welfare queens

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

It's beside the point, but LBJ didn't run in 68.

 

[The Librarian]

Obama is pissed.

 

[Wilsongt]

Obama is pissed.

As well he should be. He truly needs to go angry half-black man.

Also, one of Yahoo!'s new stories deals with the shutdown, and for their picture for the article it has the capitol building and a statue with a woman facepalming. It's hilarious.

Dear God Eric Cantor is a shady bitch.

https://twitter.com/GOPLeader/status/385075215157317632/photo/1

Eric Cantor ‏@GOPLeader 1h

We sit ready to negotiate with the Senate. #FairnessForAll pic.twitter.com/WVZ8ZY00Es

 

[The Librarian]

Seems House Rs are mulling program-specific CRs.

 

[Mike M]

Man, I would love for this to translate to taking back the House, but between gerrymandering and midterm voting demographics... Ehhhh...

Though it would come to naught w/out reforming the filibuster anyway : /

 

[thefro]

PPP Dems + 5 on generic ballot

Thanks for the majority, Boehner.

It needs to be about +10 unfortunately for them to pick up the Hosue.

+5 will just get them a few seats with how things are gerrymandered right now.

 

[Aaron Strife]

While Republicans in the House are looking awful right now, we have to remember that midterm elections are over a year away, people who tend to vote democrat usually don't show up in large numbers during midterms, and the average American voter as the memory of a goldfish.

I highly doubt many of the Republicans are going anywhere for a while...

2006

Democrats had 202 seats before the 06 elections. One seat more than they have now.

It needs to be about +10 unfortunately for them to pick up the Hosue.

+5 will just get them a few seats with how things are gerrymandered right now.

Democrats won the popular vote by 1 in 2012.

Give all the Dem candidates an extra 4 points and they're up to 212 seats.

An extra 4 points (for the Qunnipiac poll) and they're up to 224 seats.

By this measure, the Democrats would need about a 7 point lead to win the majority, which is what they got in 2006.

Of course, the swing wouldn't be uniform. Smart targeting of the districts would reduce that number (wouldn't want to waste those swing votes in ultra-safe blue or red districts).

 

[pigeon]

Seems House Rs are mulling program-specific CRs.

Those are called appropriations bills. They already tried to pass those! They couldn't get any through the House!

 

[kingkitty]

There's some good spinning on Fox News, maybe a government shutdown isn't such a big deal, more like government yawndown.

 

[codhand]

The Department of Treasury will be halting most operations, including brewery permitting and label approval.

Thanks Obama.

 

[Black Mamba]

Thanks Obama.

If this doesn't get people to the streets, nothing will!

 

[The Librarian]

Those are called appropriations bills. They already tried to pass those! They couldn't get any through the House!

Er, no, these are like memorials, parks, veteran services, and so on. Not entire agencies.

 

[KingK]

And by young people you mean libertarians?

It's not even close to just being libertarians. I can only speak from anecdotal experience, but I have a shit ton of friends here at college who were pretty damn enthusiastic about Obama before who have said they will not vote Democrat in future elections and regret voting for Obama strictly because of the NSA (Drones play a big part for a lot of them too). It's not like they are going to vote R, they just say they'll vote third party or, more likely, not vote (since the only third party that is ever on the ballot in Indiana is the Libertarian party). At least half of the people my age that I know voted for Obama have pledged to not vote Democrat again.

I'm sure a lot of them will change their tune in the next presidential election when directly confronted with the possibility of a batshit Republican getting the White House, but a lot won't. And, while young voters are notorious for not showing up in midterms, I expect apathy among my age group to be even worse this midterm specifically because of the NSA. I wouldn't underestimate the damage it's done for the Democratic party's reputation among young voters.

 

[Sirpopopop]

Label Approval hurts my business.

 

[Crisco]

Seems House Rs are mulling program-specific CRs.

No. Don't say yes to anything other than a full CR. They are cracking and will break eventually.

 

[bonercop]

It needs to be about +10 unfortunately for them to pick up the Hosue.

+5 will just get them a few seats with how things are gerrymandered right now.

you don't think that number will grow in the coming months as it turns out that Obamacare doesn't herald the apocalypse and Republicans get the opportunity to talk about vaginas and rape again? Shit, I'm starting to think Pigeon was right with his predictions after all.

 

[slit]

Obama is pissed.

.....and that doesn't happen very often.

 

[pigeon]

Er, no, these are like memorials, parks, veteran services, and so on. Not entire agencies.

That would still be an appropriations bill, just, like, for the Parks Services only.

 

[B-Dubs]

Obama is pissed.

I guess Luther is out of a job.

Er, no, these are like memorials, parks, veteran services, and so on. Not entire agencies.

That's going to be a non-starter in the Senate. Reid and Obama have no reason to agree to that.

EDIT: I just heard Turtle Soup speak on the shut down and he sounds like a damn fool.

 

[theprodigy]

all this piece by piece stuff?

Senate should take each bill they get from the house, amend it into a clean CR, and return it.

 

[The Librarian]

That would still be an appropriations bill, just, like, for the Parks Services only.

Everything is an appropriations bill!

 

[Black Mamba]

I guess Luther is out of a job.



That's going to be a non-starter in the Senate. Reid and Obama have no reason to agree to that.

Yup it would only serve to give the GOP some leverage.

 

[BSsBrolly]

I was thinking about this government shut down and on the plus side, this will bring a lot of awareness to the individual exchanges opening up today.

 

[PhoenixDark]

@KellyO 5m

Senate Democrats say at this point they would not accept House GOP plan to fund Vets, National Parks. Full govt funding only.

Holding firm. Still, I really don't know what's going to happen. I kinda think Boehner will allow another vote to fail, maybe two, before going for a clean CR. But it almost seems like he's non-existent right now.

There was a report about him having a (civil) argument with Goehmert during the GOP meeting about this strategy. A strategy Cruz came up with, I might point out.

 

[B-Dubs]

I thought you guys would get a kick out of today's NY Daily News front page. I died.

Hopefully this goes up before GAF goes down again.

 

[Clevinger]

It's not even close to just being libertarians. I can only speak from anecdotal experience, but I have a shit ton of friends here at college who were pretty damn enthusiastic about Obama before who have said they will not vote Democrat in future elections and regret voting for Obama strictly because of the NSA (Drones play a big part for a lot of them too). It's not like they are going to vote R, they just say they'll vote third party or, more likely, not vote (since the only third party that is ever on the ballot in Indiana is the Libertarian party). At least half of the people my age that I know voted for Obama have pledged to not vote Democrat again.

I'm sure a lot of them will change their tune in the next presidential election when directly confronted with the possibility of a batshit Republican getting the White House, but a lot won't. And, while young voters are notorious for not showing up in midterms, I expect apathy among my age group to be even worse this midterm specifically because of the NSA. I wouldn't underestimate the damage it's done for the Democratic party's reputation among young voters.

Right, drones too. I forgot to mention that.

 

[Black Mamba]

Oh God, Esquire put out an amazing article today. Must Read:

The Reign Of Morons Is Here
By Charles P. Pierce

Only the truly child-like can have expected anything else.

In the year of our Lord 2010, the voters of the United States elected the worst Congress in the history of the Republic. There have been Congresses more dilatory. There have been Congresses more irresponsible, though not many of them. There have been lazier Congresses, more vicious Congresses, and Congresses less capable of seeing forests for trees. But there has never been in a single Congress -- or, more precisely, in a single House of the Congress -- a more lethal combination of political ambition, political stupidity, and political vainglory than exists in this one, which has arranged to shut down the federal government because it disapproves of a law passed by a previous Congress, signed by the president, and upheld by the Supreme Court, a law that does nothing more than extend the possibility of health insurance to the millions of Americans who do not presently have it, a law based on a proposal from a conservative think-tank and taken out on the test track in Massachusetts by a Republican governor who also happens to have been the party's 2012 nominee for president of the United States. That is why the government of the United States is, in large measure, closed this morning.

We have elected the people sitting on hold, waiting for their moment on an evening drive-time radio talk show.

We have elected an ungovernable collection of snake-handlers, Bible-bangers, ignorami, bagmen and outright frauds, a collection so ungovernable that it insists the nation be ungovernable, too. We have elected people to govern us who do not believe in government.

We have elected a national legislature in which Louie Gohmert and Michele Bachmann have more power than does the Speaker of the House of Representatives, who has been made a piteous spectacle in the eyes of the country and doesn't seem to mind that at all. We have elected a national legislature in which the true power resides in a cabal of vandals, a nihilistic brigade that believes that its opposition to a bill directing millions of new customers to the nation's insurance companies is the equivalent of standing up the the Nazis in 1938, to the bravery of the passengers on Flight 93 on September 11, 2001, and to Mel Gibson's account of the Scottish Wars of Independence in the 13th Century. We have elected a national legislature that looks into the mirror and sees itself already cast in marble.

We did this. We looked at our great legacy of self-government and we handed ourselves over to the reign of morons.

This is what they came to Washington to do -- to break the government of the United States. It doesn't matter any more whether they're doing it out of pure crackpot ideology, or at the behest of the various sugar daddies that back their campaigns, or at the instigation of their party's mouthbreathing base. It may be any one of those reasons. It may be all of them. The government of the United States, in the first three words of its founding charter, belongs to all of us, and these people have broken it deliberately. The true hell of it, though, is that you could see this coming down through the years, all the way from Ronald Reagan's First Inaugural Address in which government "was" the problem, through Bill Clinton's ameliorative nonsense about the era of big government being "over," through the attempts to make a charlatan like Newt Gingrich into a scholar and an ambitious hack like Paul Ryan into a budget genius, and through all the endless attempts to find "common ground" and a "Third Way." Ultimately, as we all wrapped ourselves in good intentions, a prion disease was eating away at the country's higher functions. One of the ways you can acquire a prion disease is to eat right out of its skull the brains of an infected monkey. We are now seeing the country reeling and jabbering from the effects of the prion disease, but it was during the time of Reagan that the country ate the monkey brains.

What is there to be done? The first and most important thing is to recognize how we came to this pass. Both sides did not do this. Both sides are not to blame. There is no compromise to be had here that will leave the current structure of the government intact. There can be no reward for this behavior. I am less sanguine than are many people that this whole thing will redound to the credit of the Democratic party. For that to happen, the country would have to make a nuanced judgment over who is to blame that, I believe, will be discouraged by the courtier press of the Beltway and that, in any case, the country has not shown itself capable of making. For that to happen, the Democratic party would have to be demonstrably ruthless enough to risk its own political standing to make the point, which the Democratic party never has shown itself capable of doing. With the vandals tucked away in safe, gerrymandered districts, and their control over state governments probably unshaken by events in Washington, there will be no great wave election that sweeps them out of power. I do not see profound political consequences for enough of them to change the character of a Congress gone delusional. The only real consequences will be felt by the millions of people affected by what this Congress has forced upon the nation, which was the whole point all along.

Among other things, the Library Of Congress is closed as a result of what the vandals have done. Padlock study and intellect. Wander aimlessly down the mall among the shuttered monuments to self-government. Find yourself a food truck that serves monkey brains. Eat your fking fill.

http://www.esquire.com/blogs/politics/Shutdown_Blues

 

[PhoenixDark]

@russellberman 6m

In House GOP meeting, Gohmert pushed for military pay bill in conf. committee; Boehner replied: 'Louie, that bill has already been signed'

Clown shoes.

 

[The Librarian]

Great interview with Klein and Costa.

Ezra Klein: Walk me through the math of the House GOP a bit. Most people seem to think Boehner has around 100 members who largely back him and don't want a shutdown, and it’s a much smaller group, a few dozen or so, who want to take this to the brink. So why doesn’t Boehner, after trying to do it the conservative’s way as he has been in recent weeks, just say, we're voting on a clean CR now, as that’s what the majority of the House Republican majority wants?

Robert Costa: Ever since Plan B failed on the fiscal cliff in January and you saw Boehner in near tears in front of his conference, he’s been crippled. He’s been facing the consequences of that throughout the year. Everything from [the Violence Against Women Act] to the farm bill to the shutdown. The Boehner coup was unsuccessful but there were two dozen members talking about getting rid of him. That’s enough to cause problems. Boehner’s got the veterans and the committee chairs behind him, but the class of 2010 and 2012 doesn’t have much allegiance to him.

The thing that makes Boehner interesting is he’s very aware of his limited hand. Boehner doesn’t live in an imaginary world where he thinks he’s Tip O’Neill and he can bring people into his office and corral them into a certain vote. So he treads carefully, maybe too carefully. But he knows a clean CR has never been an option for him.

EK: But why isn’t it an option? A few dozen unhappy members is an annoyance, but how is it a threat? Wouldn't Boehner be better off just facing them down and then moving on with his speakership?

RC: So there are 30 to 40 true hardliners. But there’s another group of maybe 50 to 60 members who are very much pressured by the hardliners. So he may have the votes on paper. But he'd create chaos. It'd be like fiscal cliff level chaos. You could make the argument that if he brought a clean CR to the floor he might have 1000-plus with him on the idea. But could they stand firm when pressured by the 30 or 40 hardliners and the outside groups?

EK: How much of this is a Boehner problem and how much of this is a House Republicans problem? Which is to say, if Boehner decided to retire tomorrow, is there another House Republican who has enough trust and allegiance in the conference that he or she could manage the institution more effectively?

RC: What we're seeing is the collapse of institutional Republican power. It’s not so much about Boehner. It’s things like the end of earmarks. They move away from Tom DeLay and they think they're improving the House, but now they have nothing to offer their members. The outside groups don't always move votes directly but they create an atmosphere of fear among the members. And so many of these members now live in the conservative world of talk radio and tea party conventions and Fox News invitations. And so the conservative strategy of the moment, no matter how unrealistic it might be, catches fire. The members begin to believe they can achieve things in divided government that most objective observers would believe is impossible. Leaders are dealing with these expectations that wouldn't exist in a normal environment.​

More at link.

 

[Sibylus]

Clown shoes.

Lmao. Gohmert must think the executive is as dim as he is, trying to pay the troops after the government shuts down.