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[pigeon]

Why? I have yet to see anything to suggest Boehner will destroy the world economy over 30-40 house members giving him shit. The government shutdown is small ball compared to that, and he knows it. And as I have said a million times, he already told his golf buddies on Wall Street that he won't allow a default.

Right, but that assumes he has his eye on the ball. As I already noted, going to conference casts some doubt on that for me, because there's no tactical benefit to doing so. So I already have a little bit of concern about Boehner's ability to plan and execute a strategy.

Bringing Paul Ryan into the mix also affects things in a couple of ways. Most notably, of course, there's the issue that Paul Ryan is insane -- what Ted Cruz is to Obamacare, Paul Ryan is to every other government program, remember? But apparently the House leadership don't perceive this. Ryan believes that Obama will cave on the debt ceiling and thus that the GOP should combine the two issues.

If Ryan rolls the debt ceiling and the shutdown into one and takes point on negotiating them, this jams Boehner yet again. For Boehner to pass a clean debt ceiling increase at the last minute, he'll have to visibly sell out Ryan's negotiating strategy. He'll also face the difficulty of separating the commingled issues of the debt ceiling and the shutdown in order to justify a vote on just one, after having spent a week (at the point this would happen) messaging that they should be considered together. I presume that Reid would take a clean ceiling increase even if the government were still shut down, although he's claiming he won't...but it's not crazy to observe that the situation will get significantly more complicated to navigate if Ryan gets his way. Given Boehner's existing challenges at bringing up basic, everyday government-running bills, the combination of the two makes me concerned that, even if everybody wants to raise the debt ceiling, somebody's just going to miscalculate. I mean, we're not dealing with geniuses here.

I'm not saying Obama should immediately go on the offensive. I'm just saying I don't want him taping another speech about what happens now that we've breached the debt ceiling. At the point that it would be necessary, using executive measures to avoid the economy collapsing would be the adult thing to do. I just hope he's on the same page about that.

 

[Baraka in the White House]

At my old job, there was this guy that I worked with that used play nothing but AM talk radio.

It often reminded me why I'll never vote Republican.

I finally started listening to our local AM news station yesterday on the way home from work out of boredom with hearing Mumford and Son on FM stations every other song. Holy fucking shit dude, this one guy makes anyone from Fox News sound nuanced and sane.

It's incredible. It's nothing but a constant IV drip of conservative persecution affirmation, government slander and barely-disguised dog whistling. He'll say something like, "I better be careful what I say or some LIBRUL might call me racist!" And then proceeds to say shit that's unabashedly racist.

And then he takes a call from Foghorn Leghorn.

 

[Diablos]

The minority party could use a Motion to Recommit today, based on the votes the House will be doing. Democrats could put a clean CR on the floor.

Democrats in the House? How?

 

[pigeon]

Democrats in the House? How?

It's literally in the post you're responding to!

Under regular order, the minority party can make a motion to recommit with instructions. This is essentially an amendment to the bill. (For procedural reasons, what it does is send the bill back to the committee, which incorporates the instructions into the bill and immediately reports it back, which then immediately comes up for a vote in the House, but since all those steps are automatic, it's just an amendment.) Motions to Recommit are always recognized first from members of the opposing party. So it's essentially a guaranteed chance for House Democrats to propose a clean CR as an amendment to one of these bills. Maybe all of them.

 

[Diablos]

It's literally in the post you're responding to!

Under regular order, the minority party can make a motion to recommit with instructions. This is essentially an amendment to the bill. (For procedural reasons, what it does is send the bill back to the committee, which incorporates the instructions into the bill and immediately reports it back, which then immediately comes up for a vote in the House, but since all those steps are automatic, it's just an amendment.) Motions to Recommit are always recognized first from members of the opposing party. So it's essentially a guaranteed chance for House Democrats to propose a clean CR as an amendment to one of these bills. Maybe all of them.

Whoa. Yeah I knew that is what allowed for it, just wondered how.

 

[The Librarian]

Obama invited hill leaders Wednesday to discuss raising debt limit: http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/obama-invites-hill-leaders-to-talk-debt-limit

 

[Y2Kev]

Oh great. Meetings! Bring your game boy.

 

[pigeon]

The coin thing will never happen, as was explained in detail with the last go-round of this. Yes, they have the authority to mint the coin, but there's a whole rigamarole dealing with the design of the coin's face needing senate approval or something. Plus the time it takes to design and manufacture the die, etc.

It's 14th amendment or bust.

Do you have any links to this? I remember some commentary about the design of the coin's face, but mostly what I remember reading is that more or less all the actual legal expects agreed that it was certainly legal and might arguably be mandated. (Except Obama, of course, but that's because he wanted to force some sort of resolution.)

I suspect that, if it came down to it, Obama would prefer the 14th Amendment, not because it's more legal, but because it looks less ridiculous. But I haven't yet seen the insurmountable obstacles to minting the coin. If the worst thing that happens is that the die is pretty shitty and the coin looks ugly and doesn't have nice milled edges, I think we can stick together as a country anyway.

 

[Mike M]

Do you have any links to this? I remember some commentary about the design of the coin's face, but mostly what I remember reading is that more or less all the actual legal expects agreed that it was certainly legal and might arguably be mandated. (Except Obama, of course, but that's because he wanted to force some sort of resolution.)

I suspect that, if it came down to it, Obama would prefer the 14th Amendment, not because it's more legal, but because it looks less ridiculous. But I haven't yet seen the insurmountable obstacles to minting the coin. If the worst thing that happens is that the die is pretty shitty and the coin looks ugly and doesn't have nice milled edges, I think we can stick together as a country anyway.

Well yeah, the argument was never that it wasn't legal, just prohibitively impractical (especially if the senate was involved in any way).

I'll see what I can't find about it, I may just be misremembering.

 

[Diablos]

Do you have any links to this? I remember some commentary about the design of the coin's face, but mostly what I remember reading is that more or less all the actual legal expects agreed that it was certainly legal and might arguably be mandated. (Except Obama, of course, but that's because he wanted to force some sort of resolution.)

I suspect that, if it came down to it, Obama would prefer the 14th Amendment, not because it's more legal, but because it looks less ridiculous. But I haven't yet seen the insurmountable obstacles to minting the coin. If the worst thing that happens is that the die is pretty shitty and the coin looks ugly and doesn't have nice milled edges, I think we can stick together as a country anyway.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trillion_dollar_coin

The trillion dollar coin is a concept that emerged during the United States debt-ceiling crisis in 2011, as a proposed way to bypass any necessity for the United States Congress to raise the country's borrowing limit, through the minting of very high value platinum coins. The concept gained more mainstream attention by late 2012 during the debates over the United States fiscal cliff negotiations and renewed debt-ceiling discussions. After reaching the headlines during the week of January 7, 2013, use of the trillion dollar coin concept was ultimately rejected by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury.[1] Five days later, Senate Minority Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas) announced that Senate Republicans would end their threat to block an increase in the debt ceiling.[2]

Welp.

Either way I think the 14th is a more desirable way to go. Minting a trillon dollar coin just sounds shady, even if in practice it is ultimately no different.

 

[pigeon]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trillion_dollar_coin

Welp.

Seriously?

Do you have any links to this? I remember some commentary about the design of the coin's face, but mostly what I remember reading is that more or less all the actual legal expects agreed that it was certainly legal and might arguably be mandated. (Except Obama, of course, but that's because he wanted to force some sort of resolution.)

(Except Obama, of course, but that's because he wanted to force some sort of resolution.)

 

[PhoenixDark]

House and Senate leaders going to WH for meeting at 5:30PM. Can't say I have a good feeling about it.

Right, but that assumes he has his eye on the ball. As I already noted, going to conference casts some doubt on that for me, because there's no tactical benefit to doing so. So I already have a little bit of concern about Boehner's ability to plan and execute a strategy.

Bringing Paul Ryan into the mix also affects things in a couple of ways. Most notably, of course, there's the issue that Paul Ryan is insane -- what Ted Cruz is to Obamacare, Paul Ryan is to every other government program, remember? But apparently the House leadership don't perceive this. Ryan believes that Obama will cave on the debt ceiling and thus that the GOP should combine the two issues.

If Ryan rolls the debt ceiling and the shutdown into one and takes point on negotiating them, this jams Boehner yet again. For Boehner to pass a clean debt ceiling increase at the last minute, he'll have to visibly sell out Ryan's negotiating strategy. He'll also face the difficulty of separating the commingled issues of the debt ceiling and the shutdown in order to justify a vote on just one, after having spent a week (at the point this would happen) messaging that they should be considered together. I presume that Reid would take a clean ceiling increase even if the government were still shut down, although he's claiming he won't...but it's not crazy to observe that the situation will get significantly more complicated to navigate if Ryan gets his way. Given Boehner's existing challenges at bringing up basic, everyday government-running bills, the combination of the two makes me concerned that, even if everybody wants to raise the debt ceiling, somebody's just going to miscalculate. I mean, we're not dealing with geniuses here.

I'm not saying Obama should immediately go on the offensive. I'm just saying I don't want him taping another speech about what happens now that we've breached the debt ceiling. At the point that it would be necessary, using executive measures to avoid the economy collapsing would be the adult thing to do. I just hope he's on the same page about that.

I guess we place different weight on the conference decision. To me it was nothing more than a PR tactic to metaphorically cross the t on democrats not negotiating; hence that very Cantor-esque decision to take a picture of all the republican conf members at the table, working hard (tm), with no democrats in sight. It was also a tactic to waste time.

I look at Boehner as a not particularly competent actor, but a generally rational actor when it's time to act rationally. And therefore I simply cannot believe that by say, October 10th it won't become clear Boehner is about to cave on the debt ceiling. We might get a few days closer to the 17th, but as the markets begin to make noise I think Boehner will announce a vote. Again, I don't think him being bad at strategy has anything to do with it, considering the market will literally panic and he'll have plenty of time to call a vote.

 

[Diablos]

Seriously?

Yes seriously; do you really think it was solely Obama who advocated for not using that? I know he wanted a resolution, but I find it hard to believe he was the singular voice who said "we're not minting a coin".

14th Amendment seems the more preferred option here, why mint a coin when you can just cite a part of the constitution that clearly states when the Government is in disarray, this is a viable action?

What looks worse: "Obama mints trillon dollar coin to end debt ceiling drama" or "Obama uses constitutional option for ending debt ceiling dilemma"? Everything is hyper-political right now, I think from an optics standpoint alone the 14th Amendment is a much better idea. Minting a trillion dollar coin just looks and sounds shady as hell. Quoting the constitution and calling out the tea party as the rebellion against a Congressional responsibility to pass a short-term budget with no other factors would be nothing short of epic.

 

[pigeon]

I don't really see the benefit in this debt ceiling meeting, given that I thought we had a pretty firm "we're not negotiating about the debt ceiling" position.

TPM has a pretty interesting story about corporations pushing back against the Tea Party. I was waiting for somebody else to pick it up before quoting it, but here's the link:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/w...ng-big-business-leaders-take-sides-with-obama

Of course, having the Chamber of Commerce support Democrats is a mixed blessing.

 

[Clevinger]

Why? I have yet to see anything to suggest Boehner will destroy the world economy over 30-40 house members giving him shit. The government shutdown is small ball compared to that, and he knows it. And as I have said a million times, he already told his golf buddies on Wall Street that he won't allow a default.

I wouldn't trust the last minute actions of a drunk Boener.

 

[jamesinclair]

Can we get a GAF vote on what you all think will happen?


1) Government opens with clean CR before debt crisis
2) Government opens with democrat cave
3) Government opens on debt crisis deal
4) Government continues closed past debt crisis

 

[pigeon]

Yes

You responding to my posts repeating things I said in my posts is only marginally better than you responding to my posts repeating things I specifically commented on in my posts.

 

[Chichikov]

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/02/opinion/friedman-our-democracy-is-at-stake.html?hp





This is why Obama will not negotiate

Those clowns in the house made me agree with Thomas Freedman.
Fuck everything.

 

[kmag]

They should mint the coin and put GWB's head on it. Or Reagan's that would be amusing.

 

[Hitokage]

You are very annoying.

Freaking out all over a thread is one thing, but refusing to acknowledge what you've been doing, even after the fact, is worse.

 

[Averon]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304176904579111091033132998.html?mod=djemalertNEWS

However, White House officials signaled that Mr. Obama would negotiate with Republicans on their broader budget concerns and possibly some tweaks to the health-care law if Congress approved a temporary extension of government funding and a debt-limit increase to give officials time for talks. Details of how such an agreement would work were unclear.

One official said the White House would like, in particular, to address broad budget cuts known as the sequester but also said there are some tax issues on which Mr. Obama and Republicans could reach a compromise.

No No No No No!!!!! If Obama reward such behavior again, he's an idiot.

 

[JCizzle]

The minority party could use a Motion to Recommit today, based on the votes the House will be doing. Democrats could put a clean CR on the floor.

This sounds interesting

 

[PhoenixDark]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304176904579111091033132998.html?mod=djemalertNEWS



No No No No No!!!!! If Obama reward such behavior again, he's an idiot.

Called this last night. It's what he does.

 

[Clevinger]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304176904579111091033132998.html?mod=djemalertNEWS



No No No No No!!!!! If Obama reward such behavior again, he's an idiot.

It took 24 hours for spineless Obama to show up.

What a pathetic president. Jesus.

 

[thefro]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304176904579111091033132998.html?mod=djemalertNEWS



No No No No No!!!!! If Obama reward such behavior again, he's an idiot.

It's 11th-dimensional chess... that's basically been Obama's position all along that he wants (grand bargain) but if Republicans think he caved then it'll resolve the issue.

 

[The Librarian]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304176904579111091033132998.html?mod=djemalertNEWS



No No No No No!!!!! If Obama reward such behavior again, he's an idiot.

Uh, did you skip over this part?

Mr. Obama will use the meeting—the first with congressional leaders since the shutdown began Tuesday—to press leaders to reopen the government and reiterate his position that he won't negotiate on the debt limit or under the threat of a continued shutdown, the official said.

 

[zero_suit]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304176904579111091033132998.html?mod=djemalertNEWS



No No No No No!!!!! If Obama reward such behavior again, he's an idiot.

Seriously? Come on, Obama.

 

[The Librarian]

Called this last night. It's what he does.

It took 24 hours for spineless Obama to show up.

What a pathetic president. Jesus.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304176904579111091033132998.html?mod=djemalertNEWS



No No No No No!!!!! If Obama reward such behavior again, he's an idiot.

Seriously? Come on, Obama.

Did you guys read the article? He's not going to negotiate over the shutdown or the debt ceiling, but he's willing to negotiate through normal channels. His insistence to do tax reform, make tweaks to the healthcare law (not necessarily a bad thing!), and get rid of the sequester has been stuff he has been wanting to do. He has been open to this stuff! Through normal channels of legislating.

 

[East Lake]

Obama's meeting with Wall street execs right now and they're not too pleased with the debt ceiling crisis. Boehner and and his terrorist cohorts prob need to know the details later today.

 

[pigeon]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304176904579111091033132998.html?mod=djemalertNEWS



No No No No No!!!!! If Obama reward such behavior again, he's an idiot.

Hmm. This is a very trickily worded article.

As I read this, Obama's position is that, if the Republicans will agree to raise the debt ceiling and pass the CR, he will agree to...enter into negotiations about the budget. If they don't do those things first he won't negotiate.

That's not bad at all. Committing to negotiations does not mean committing to concessions.

 

[The Librarian]

Hmm. This is a very trickily worded article.

As I read this, Obama's position is that, if the Republicans will agree to raise the debt ceiling and pass the CR, he will agree to...enter into negotiations about the budget. If they don't do those things first he won't negotiate.

That's not bad at all. Committing to negotiations does not mean committing to concessions.

Exactly. Learn to read, PoliGAF!

 

[pigeon]

I just got retweeted by Jonathan Bernstein. Do I take a victory lap around PD now?

 

[The Librarian]

I just got retweeted by Jonathan Bernstein. Do I take a victory lap around PD now?

Are you liamburke?

 

[pigeon]

Are you liamburke?

liamlburke.

 

[PhoenixDark]

But what does temporary extension of government funding mean? Is that just a CR...or a week long CR. If it's the latter no thanks.

If you guys are reading the article correctly, it sounds like the meeting is little more than a PR stunt (as Costa is saying house aides believe it is). Which I'm fine with, obviously.

 

[The Librarian]

liamlburke.

Silly! Why didn't you tell me? Sheesh. I'll follow you.

 

[pigeon]

Silly! Why didn't you tell me? Sheesh. I'll follow you.

I was on the D/L. I was worried that if everybody on GAF knew who I was it would be harder to call them racists.

 

[pigeon]

Reid says he'll appoint conferees to a budget conference if Boehner passes the CR.

I'm enjoying the strategy of announcing you will do the negotiating you've been trying to get done for the last year if the Republicans will proceed with the normal operations of government.

 

[The Librarian]

I was on the D/L. I was worried that if everybody on GAF knew who I was it would be harder to call them racists.

An advantage! Also, I didn't know you were Filipino.

 

[teiresias]

Hmm. This is a very trickily worded article.

As I read this, Obama's position is that, if the Republicans will agree to raise the debt ceiling and pass the CR, he will agree to...enter into negotiations about the budget. If they don't do those things first he won't negotiate.

That's not bad at all. Committing to negotiations does not mean committing to concessions.

Sooooo, Obama is telling the Republicans to pass a clean CR and give them the committee that the Senate has been wanting on an actual budget too. That doesn't really sound like concession to me, almost like piling an actual demand on it since the Republicans have been denying a committee over the budget for months.

 

[teiresias]

Reid says he'll appoint conferees to a budget conference if Boehner passes the CR.

I'm enjoying the strategy of announcing you will do the negotiating you've been trying to get done for the last year if the Republicans will proceed with the normal operations of government.

It's funny that the Republicans themselves opened this line of attack by doing the whole committee shenanigans yesterday (or the day before, can't remember now). It's also good that Reid and Obama are apparently making it clear they want to negotiate over an actual budget and not the CR, saying that Boehner has to pass the clean CR first.

 

[RDreamer]

Christ people are fucking dumb. Someone in the lunch room just says " I don't get where he can say you have to have healthcare. What is he King Obama or something?" Fuuuuuuck..

 

[The Librarian]

Reid's letter to Boehner:

http://democrats.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/lettertoboehnershutdown.pdf

 

[teiresias]

Reid's letter to Boehner:

http://democrats.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/lettertoboehnershutdown.pdf

I find this fairly awesome. Basically, "pass the clean CR AND give us the conference we've been wanting for months and save your damn self."

 

[Baraka in the White House]

Loggerheads.

 

[Fenderputty]

Could this provide the GOP with an out? I mean their constituents think the dems are just being stubborn poppy faces anyway. Passing a clean CR and raising the debt ceiling to go to budget negotiations to find some sort of compromise could end up with some dem consessions. Could it be messaged that this was a success, that dems caved and are finally negotiating?

Am I being too optimistic?

 

[The Librarian]

Could this provide the GOP with an out? I mean their constituents think the dems are just being stubborn poppy faces anyway. Passing a clean CR and raising the debt ceiling to go to budget negotiations to find some sort of compromise could end up with some dem consessions. Could it be messaged that this was a success, that dems caved and are finally negotiating?

Am I being too optimistic?

Probably. The Republicans are going to have to start feeling the heat politically before they consider backing down.

 

[Thatonemoor]

So a few people I know think this shutdown is necessary because the government is siding with Russia, Syria, and China. I stopped arguing with these guys when they said this.

 

[B-Dubs]

Probably. The Republicans are going to have to start feeling the heat politically before they consider backing down.

Agreed, in the mean time Reid should continue offering Boehner public outs, which will only increase the pressure.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Could this provide the GOP with an out? I mean their constituents think the dems are just being stubborn poppy faces anyway. Passing a clean CR and raising the debt ceiling to go to budget negotiations to find some sort of compromise could end up with some dem consessions. Could it be messaged that this was a success, that dems caved and are finally negotiating?

Am I being too optimistic?

What's most amusing about Reid's letter is, the Senate has been trying to come to conference with the House about a budget all year. The House GOP has been refusing, unless the Senate agreed to certain preconditions (which is not the normal process). The preconditions basically were, give the House GOP their budget. The Senate wanted a clean conference, and so we are stuck with CR's until they have one.

So Reid is just offering to return to normal governance, with no pre-concessions.

Boehner has put himself in such a corner that Reid is now exerting leverage of his own to force a normal conference - and a return to normal governance as a compromise. Boehner comes to the conference already weakened from this fiasco, and Reid is seeking to remove the added leverage Boehner has been after all year. I love it.