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PoliGAF 2013 |OT2| Worth 77% of OT1

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Averon

Member
I am 100% convinced that Cruz never believed Boehner would do what he's doing now and just wanted to show himself to be anti-establishment and the true face of the anti-obamacare movement.

Cruz's antics worked so well that Boehner got hamstrung and was forced to comply.

Now, Cruz doesn't know what to do. He's been exposed.




I guess. I have no idea what Obama will do in the final hours before default. No one does.

I wonder how much Boehner hates Cruz for getting him in this mess.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Too many people don't understand the debt ceiling, which makes me nervous that Republicans could use it politically. Seeing three-toothed morons say, "THINK OF OUR CHILDREN!!!" in the context of the debt ceiling gets old fast.
 
Too many people don't understand the debt ceiling, which makes me nervous that Republicans could use it politically. Seeing three-toothed morons say, "THINK OF OUR CHILDREN!!!" in the context of the debt ceiling gets old fast.

But I'm showing fiscal responsibility by not paying my credit card bill!
 
I


I guess. I have no idea what Obama will do in the final hours before default. No one does.

Why do you think we'll get to that point? You realize that mere days before the 17th, the market will begin to implode and it'll become very clear Something Bad is about to happen unless the ceiling is raised. Boehner has assured Wall Street there won't be a default. In order to ensure it, all he has to do is call a vote. That's it.

He's chasing a republican grand bargain that his own party will most likely reject unless it's so far right wing that it becomes a PR nightmare. When that fails, he's pretty much out of options on that end.
 

Chichikov

Member
Fuckers get Citizen United-ed.
I wish I could say you reap what you sow, but we all reaping that shit.

History repeats itself, this is just like the Nazis.
No, wait, I'm not comparing the tea party to Nazis, I really really am not, just bear with me for one minute here.
What I am comparing is rich short-sighted industrialists in Germany who because they were afraid that the communists were coming for their stuff, decided to support and finance the Nazi party so they can take care of communists. They thought they can use crazy and then control or discard it, but they couldn't.
Also, I would like to stress that I'm not overly afraid of the GOP crazy caucus, I think the demographics of the US will make them disappear pretty damn soon, I'm just commenting on how time after time (and there other examples), rich people try to use crazy to advance their economic interests, and it almost always blow in everyone's faces.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Jesus fucking christ chill out. There's literally no fucking way Boehner sits back and lets the global economy blow up because he's afraid of 30 junior/sophomore tea party congressmen.

I'm starting to think the government might be closed for weeks, but I'm not concerned at all about a default. Remember back in 2011 when the markets started panicking, and shortly thereafter an agreement was reached/Obama caved? That's going to happen here...except this time, presumably, Obama won't cave. Literally all Boehner needs to do is schedule the vote. To believe we'll default is to believe one man will refuse to allow a vote on whether the global economy should blow up or not.
Prior to the shutdown, I held this view. I still think it's unlikely. But I'm not so sure now.

I am 100% convinced that Cruz never believed Boehner would do what he's doing now and just wanted to show himself to be anti-establishment and the true face of the anti-obamacare movement.

Cruz's antics worked so well that Boehner got hamstrung and was forced to comply.

Now, Cruz doesn't know what to do. He's been exposed.
Cruz clearly had no end game. He was making things up procedurally as he went, and this was the natural end state: government shut down, GOP is blamed, Obamacare carries on. He's in way over his head, and managed to pull an entire body of Congress with him. Lemmings.

Boehner should hate himself for his own stupidity.
Yup. He's got no one to blame but himself. He's just gotta schedule a vote. But nope, gotta dig in. He's a coward.
 

pigeon

Banned
Why do you think we'll get to that point? You realize that mere days before the 17th, the market will begin to implode and it'll become very clear Something Bad is about to happen unless the ceiling is raised. Boehner has assured Wall Street there won't be a default. In order to ensure it, all he has to do is call a vote. That's it.

He's chasing a republican grand bargain that his own party will most likely reject unless it's so far right wing that it becomes a PR nightmare. When that fails, he's pretty much out of options on that end.

Just for the record, in your model, what happens to Boehner if he fails to deliver on his promises to Wall Street?
 

Cloudy

Banned
Dems should just keep challenging Boehner to put a clean CR on the House floor every time a media idiot tries to do false equivalency
 
Why do you think we'll get to that point? You realize that mere days before the 17th, the market will begin to implode and it'll become very clear Something Bad is about to happen unless the ceiling is raised. Boehner has assured Wall Street there won't be a default. In order to ensure it, all he has to do is call a vote. That's it.

He's chasing a republican grand bargain that his own party will most likely reject unless it's so far right wing that it becomes a PR nightmare. When that fails, he's pretty much out of options on that end.

I agree which is why I think he'll do it.

But again, when you deal with the irrational, sometimes things go very badly.

Boehner also stated that a shutdown wouldn't happen.
 
Dems should just keep challenging Boehner to put a clean CR on the House floor every time a media idiot tries to do false equivalency

(1) A clean CR - which would pass both houses of Congress. (2) A debt ceiling hike, which is necessary to avoid catastrophe. (3) And finally: a conference on an actual, full year budget, which is something the Senate has been requesting for several months now.

That's all. Crisis over. These are not policy demands; these are the requirements for a functioning government. Boehner could get this started tonight if he wanted to. They need to hammer that point home.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
I'm most worried that Boehner is 100% convinced Obama will cave like he has before, and Obama is 100% set against setting a new hostage taking precedent.

If that's the case I don't know how that situation could be changed before catastrophe hits. But I guess none of us know exactly what Boehner and the people who influence Boehner are really thinking.

Maybe by waiting until the time frame between when we officially become in danger of hitting the debt ceiling but before the ceiling actually gets hit? Maybe less than an hour after the debt ceiling gets hit?

What happens if the debt limit gets hit anyhow? Does it instantly take effect or is there a fuzzy time frame when it gets hit but we don't know it's been hit?

If overconfidence is the problem, what happens in the last of the last minutes is the only thing that's important.
 

pigeon

Banned
They're not serious.

From everything I've been reading, I think this is Boehner's weakness -- remember, the 2011 Grand Bargain went exactly this way. Boehner told the House GOP all the awesome things they'd be getting. Forgot to mention they'd have to vote for a tax increase. I suspect he tends to sell the benefits and hope the costs will just sneak by, which is not, in my experience, a good way to accomplish his kinds of goals.

So Monday the strategy was ping-pong. Tuesday the strategy was the conference. Today the strategy is a grand bargain. I'm curious to see what tomorrow's strategy is.
 
Just for the record, in your model, what happens to Boehner if he fails to deliver on his promises to Wall Street?

Wall Street goes on the dark internet to hire a hitman for bitcoins, obviously.

No, he loses his investments, destroys the economy, is forever disgraced, etc. Again, we're talking about a complete global meltdown, I don't keep bringing up the Wall Street comment because I believe they're going to directly punish him if he doesn't keep his word. The point is that Boehner is an old school corporatist republican. He's going to retire to a life of golf with lobbyists and K/Wall Street barons. Unless we default, at which point he would have fucked all those people over and ruined the country...
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Wall Street goes on the dark internet to hire a hitman for bitcoins, obviously.

No, he loses his investments, destroys the economy, is forever disgraced, etc. Again, we're talking about a complete global meltdown, I don't keep bringing up the Wall Street comment because I believe they're going to directly punish him if he doesn't keep his word. The point is that Boehner is an old school corporatist republican. He's going to retire to a life of golf with lobbyists and K/Wall Street barons. Unless we default, at which point he would have fucked all those people over and ruined the country...

In which case he'd probably retire in disgrace and to a life of golf with lobbyists and K/Wall Street barons.
 

Cloudy

Banned
http://washingtonexaminer.com/gop-s...ll-link-to-debt-ceiling-fight/article/2536750

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LMAO WTF
 

zargle

Member

Not that I wasn't already a little bit, but he makes me fucking ashamed to have interned in that district office when Souder was there.

Of course, it could be worse, my lady-friend interned with Boehner when in 09.

We both regret these decisions now, fyi.
 

Hawkian

The Cryptarch's Bane
So the idea is to just hold the executive branch hostage until you get what you want. It's not very original, but I will concede that it takes giant brass balls.

By the time this is all over, we'll see exactly how much political capital President Barack Obama has spent.
To be honest I never even knew we had a debt ceiling, because it's never an issue to raise it. :jnc
The problem is essentially fabricated; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIbkoop4AYE
 

Chichikov

Member
I didn't even know Australia has a debt ceiling.
Anyone know when they enacted that stupidity?
Couldn't find any info online.

Edit: oh and Greatest Country In World Unable To Keep William H. Gross Stamp Gallery Open
WASHINGTON—Following Congress’ inability to hammer out a last-minute budget agreement, the federal government earlier today entered into a partial shutdown under which the greatest country on the planet—that shining example to all other nations in the world—will be unable to keep the William H. Gross Stamp Gallery open, sources confirmed.

Owing to widespread pay freezes and the furloughs of various federal government workers brought on by the shutdown, directors at the Gross Gallery confirmed that the world’s towering bastion of wealth, cultural might, and democratic ideals will be incapable of maintaining the 12,000-square-foot gallery devoted to the history and exhibition of postage stamps.

more at the link.
 

teiresias

Member
This was my take on it as well, but with every day that passes I'm less and less sure of that.

To be fair, we're just wrapping up the second full day of shutdown. Back in '96 the thing went on for three weeks, and my coworkers tell me stories about it (well, so much as stories come out of that sort of thing since everyone is home), so to act as if this is some unprecedented length of time is being rather reactionary. Granted, I don't like being furloughed, and I was too young and unengaed to remember how the politics played out in '96, but it's not like we've been going months so far.
 

gcubed

Member

teh_pwn

"Saturated fat causes heart disease as much as Brawndo is what plants crave."
100% approval government deferral for Jesus's crusade against godless, freeloading healthcare hippies.
0% approve government shutdown that impairs national security
 
Anyone watching CNN right now? The GOP is about to break. Devin Nunes is on defending himself and trashing his caucus

And yet he won't grow a pair and actually challenge his party on the floor.

You'd think a bunch of representatives from Virginia would have revolted by now, given the implications shut down has on their economy.
 
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