Did wolf blitzer ejaculate when the CEO said that?Jesus, CNN. They have the CEO of Starbucks on just to say both sides are at fault and they need to negotiate. This is why you're a joke of a network.
Jesus, CNN. They have the CEO of Starbucks on just to say both sides are at fault and they need to negotiate. This is why you're a joke of a network.
Did wolf blitzer ejaculate when the CEO said that?
pec said:Andrew Sullivan has collected some commentary that argues against my suggestion that the House could potentially flip in 2014. There were some good points made. However, it should be noted that some of these analysts comments have been OBE (Overtaken By Events) the shutdown. The incredible numbers in yesterdays NBC/WSJ poll pretty much demonstrate that point: approval of the Republican party is at an all-time low and 60% of voters would vote out every single member of Congress at once including their own if given the chance.
All of the arguments on this subject can and should be quantified. Its just like last years Presidential race: is any of this punditry data-based? Today I start to outline a true prediction. I give a toy model, i.e. step 1 toward something more realistic. The toy model relies on a prediction of popular vote only. At the end, I start to add a little bit of complication. I invite you to add more complication in comments.
Provisionally, it looks like the following: In a little over a week, the shutdown has increased the probability of a Democratic House takeover in 2014 from 13% to as high as 50%....
The correlation between polls now and eventual outcome is r=+0.89, which is pretty good. Basically, polls now are fairly predictive of Election Day, but Democrats are likely to lose ground by then**. The average movement is Delta=3.4% toward Republicans, with a standard deviation of 4.0%. To account for further uncertainty, I will bump that standard deviation up to 5.0% for prediction purposes....
Converting votes to seats. If shifts in opinion occur nationwide by the same amount in every district, the probability of a Democratic takeover is the probability that their popular margin will exceed D+7%, the threshold number in the 2012 election. Then the probability of Republican retention of the House is 78% post-shutdown, or odds of 4-1 in their favor. That is not so far from most analysts views. (To put this in perspective, applying this method in October 2009 would have predicted the 2010 GOP takeover with a probability of about 70%.)
However, the shutdown has upended things, and the shift is not equal across districts, as indicated by the MoveOn data. To repeat yesterdays point, gerrymandered districts have swung by an average of 16 points against Republican incumbents. (Note, 10:47am: 12 new PPP polls reinforce the picture. Gerrymandered Rs have slipped an average of 15.6%, compared with 8.6% for non-gerrymandered Rs. Its highly significant, p=0.01 [spreadsheet].).
I'm not saying, I'm just saying:
"Closer to the danger zone"
Does he think democrats need a +15 margin on the generic ballot or what
Did he think he was at the iPad 5 unveiling event or something?Jesus, CNN. They have the CEO of Starbucks on just to say both sides are at fault and they need to negotiate. This is why you're a joke of a network.
Holy fuck at the Joe the Plumber piece. Wowzers.
In other news, my newsfeed is doling out the stupid:
Senate vs. House republicans
He's eerily obsessed with them. He disappears for long stretchs and then randomly pops up with ways to end the two most popular government programs. Its clear he REALLY wants to cut them, he's been wanting to since he got into office
"The way I see it, our job is to preserve our values in the 21st century," the ranking member on the House Budget Committee said in a video address at Values Voter Summit. "We need to apply our principles to the challenges of today. And that means we need to completely rethink government's role in our lives.
"We need to completely rethink government's role in helping the most vulnerable," Ryan added. "We need to completely rethink government's role in health care. That means we can never give up on repealing and replacing Obamacare."
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.), the leading advocate of defunding the Affordable Care Act in the budget debate, faced hecklers multiple times Friday during his speech at the Values Voter Summit in Washington, in which he continued to rail against the health-care law.
"The nice thing is the left will always, always, always tell you who they fear," Cruz told the crowd after one of the interruptions. "And they fear you."
One of the hecklers Cruz faced called on him to support a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants.
At one point, chants of "USA! USA!" erupted from the audience, which sought to drown out the protesters.
In his speech, Cruz credited supporters with triggering the national debate about the Affordable Care Act. He said he does not know how the fight will end, but called for House Republicans to stand firm.
"In my view, the House of Representatives needs to keep doing what [they're] doing, which is standing strong," Cruz said.
How scared is the president? Mr. Cruz said. Oh, they dont want the truth to be heard. They definitely dont want the truth to be heard.
Paul Ryan:
His stupid politics don't take away from what he's accomplished. All we need to do is understand that none of our heroes are perfect, that's just the way the world works.
I love these numbers.
"Closer to the danger zone"
Does he think democrats need a +15 margin on the generic ballot or what
More polls from notorious Rasmussen equivalent, PPP
Same deal as the first batch, with push polling Dems also win MI-08, NJ-03, VA-10, for a total of 8 pickups. Coupled with the last round, that's 22 seats where Democrats are currently leading, and 29 where Democrats are leading after respondents are reminded that their representative is shutting down the government.
As long as OFA campaigns hard and Republicans keep finding ways to screw up going into the next election (which they always have), Democrats will pick up 30 seats.
I feel this is appropriate.I'm sorry but comparing obamacare to slavery crosses lines I can't tolerate as a black man. Especially coming from another black man
It should be noted that Republicans did the same thing in 2000 that they did in 2010, and tried to gerrymander themselves into the majority. This came completely undone in 2006 and 2008, and it's where the term "dummymander" came from - specifically in Pennsylvania where Republicans stretched themselves so thin that it didn't take much movement towards the Democrats to sweep in many of them in districts previously thought to be safe.I'm not saying, I'm just saying:
http://election.princeton.edu/2013/10/10/a-prediction-for-2014-house-elections-take-1/
You don't think Republicans aren't going to pull something like this again? It's not like the budget fight in 2011 where both parties suffered, the GOP is overwhelmingly taking the blame from voters. And if they pull something like this, it'll be the same story. The tea party faction is incredibly hard to predict, no one thought the government would actually shut down and that Boehner and Obama would reach some eleventh hour deal like always. But nope, here we are, full steam ahead.PhoenixPause said:lol come on man
There's no guarantee that these numbers will carry over. It happened in 2006 but that was an entirely different situation: an unpopular incumbent and his war being rejected. Traditionally the second midterm election goes against the incumbent, or is a minimum gain.
But this would also be a problem with congressional generic ballot polls, which have proven valuable in past elections.Another thing: polls also show D margins decrease once actual names are used instead of "generic D."
So why not incremental gains in 2014 + Hilldawg pushing Dems over the top in 2016? I personally think that's the most likely scenario if we are to assume Dems can win back the House.lol come on man
There's no guarantee that these numbers will carry over. It happened in 2006 but that was an entirely different situation: an unpopular incumbent and his war being rejected. Traditionally the second midterm election goes against the incumbent, or is a minimum gain.
Another thing: polls also show D margins decrease once actual names are used instead of "generic D."
Paul Ryan:
lol come on man
There's no guarantee that these numbers will carry over. It happened in 2006 but that was an entirely different situation: an unpopular incumbent and his war being rejected. Traditionally the second midterm election goes against the incumbent, or is a minimum gain.
Another thing: polls also show D margins decrease once actual names are used instead of "generic D."
So why not incremental gains in 2014 + Hilldawg pushing Dems over the top in 2016? I personally think that's the most likely scenario if we are to assume Dems can win back the House.
Yes, gerrymandering will offset a lot of Dem votes next year, but two years after that, Hillary at the top of the ticket will get Democrats out to vote, pushing them over the top.
So why not incremental gains in 2014 + Hilldawg pushing Dems over the top in 2016? I personally think that's the most likely scenario if we are to assume Dems can win back the House.
Yes, gerrymandering will offset a lot of Dem votes next year, but two years after that, Hillary at the top of the ticket will get Democrats out to vote, pushing them over the top.
Also, if Democrats make gains in 2014, that'll be 3 of the past 5 midterm elections where the president's party wins seats. So much for the rule.We've had wave elections the last two midterms though. Will be interesting to see what happens
It would be awesome if the GOP split in half. The Tea Party becomes the Libertarian/Freedom/Patriot party or something. So delicious.
Paul Ryan:
"We need to completely rethink government's role in helping the most vulnerable," Ryan added. "We need to completely rethink government's role in health care. That means we can never give up on repealing and replacing Obamacare."
I'm sorry but comparing obamacare to slavery crosses lines I can't tolerate as a black man. Especially coming from another black man
Paul Ryan:
@ByronYork 38s
In WH meet with senators, Obama says he is angry about Obamacare exchange malfunctions; refuses to budge on individual mandate
I always wonder what happens if the GOP sheds the crazy wing. My first thought is that the Democrats dominate everything on a national level for a good decade or so while conservatives fight among themselves, but I wonder if the GOP could rebrand enough to be the party of middle America. I think things are going to swing left for a while, but I worry that a moderate Republican party starts to seem really sensible if you've got most of the crazies holed up in a third party.
I could see there being three parties in the future. A tea party that represents the fringe of the GOP that ends up coalescing with libertarians, an establishment party that represents the "middle," moderate on social issues and Clinton-esque fiscal conservatives, whose balls the media will wash in its formative years (all of the Lincoln Chafee, Susan Collins, Jon Huntsman, Chris Christie etc types will be a part of this along with conservative Democrats like Matheson) and the Democratic Party, which might essentially resemble a more pragmatic Green Party. I wouldn't wager many Democrats would actually jump ship, the splinter would mostly occur within the GOP, but it would bear out in future elections and especially in congressional elections.It'd be nice to have a sensible conservative party. Or, more sane anyways. I welcome the time where I feel as if I have a choice in voting in general elections, instead of voting Democrat, because im not fucking crazy.
Although, I'd prefer the moderate republicans to merge with the democrats and then a true leftist party (green + progressive wing of dems) rise. We really need to move the overton window left.
Yeah, I've been conditioned by years of launch window server issues for every AAA title with significant online components ever. I just flat out expected this.Am I the only one who doesn't see the healthcare website issues as a big deal? People have months to sign up. I'm sure it'll be sorted out soon enough.
I JUST WANNA SEE MY ELIGIBILITY RESULTS -_-Am I the only one who doesn't see the healthcare website issues as a big deal? People have months to sign up. I'm sure it'll be sorted out soon enough.
This deserves its own thread. I can't breathe.
Am I the only one who doesn't see the healthcare website issues as a big deal? People have months to sign up. I'm sure it'll be sorted out soon enough.
Wait, so is he arguing that government should NOT help the most vulnerable?
Because that reads exactly like, "Hey--we really need to help the needy, so we're going to take away the #1 thing that's going to help the needy."
As would I.Would love to get more of Obama's thoughts on the exchange fuck ups. He's lucky as hell that the shutdown has almost entirely hid the story, and that the NBC poll even showed some people blamed the shutdown for the malfunctions. I noticed they had added the ability to view estimates of premiums without being forced to sign up - that's good progress, and it actually works so far.
Surprised we haven't heard any reports of what Cruz did/said, if anything, in the WH. McCain noted that Obama was talking with all the members and being quite cordial.
Admittedly, I have not tried going through the process since I have coverage through my job. I'm sure it's frustrating, though.I JUST WANNA SEE MY ELIGIBILITY RESULTS -_-
Anyone else having this problem? Blank screen after you try to view your eligibility results?
@CarrieNBCNews 4m
Cruz disputes methodology of NBC/WSJ poll. "That's not reflective of where this country is." (via @kasie)
So good.gif‏@jaketapper 49s
President Romney agrees RT @CarrieNBCNews: Cruz disputes methodology of NBC/WSJ poll. "That's not reflective of where this country is."
@mpoindc: Cruz said that b/c 20% of NBC polls were govt employees, results nil. But our pollsters suggest that number is about par
Admittedly, I have not tried going through the process since I have coverage through my job. I'm sure it's frustrating, though.
As would I.
I understand there is a LONG time to enroll -- my beef is that there have been three years to prepare for this. They had to know there would be overwhelming demand.
That screed from Paul Ryan makes no sense. How does healthcare/hospitals work in libertopia anyway?
‏smart take