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PoliGAF 2013 |OT2| Worth 77% of OT1

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Link

Link

The Autumn Wind
Jesus, CNN. They have the CEO of Starbucks on just to say both sides are at fault and they need to negotiate. This is why you're a joke of a network.
 
I

ido

Member
Link said:
Jesus, CNN. They have the CEO of Starbucks on just to say both sides are at fault and they need to negotiate. This is why you're a joke of a network.
Click to expand...

Why does CNN have to always try to sit on some fantastical fence, refusing to jump off in either direction, facts be damned?

edit: ^ Blitzer comment made me chuckle.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
I'm not saying, I'm just saying:

pec said:
Andrew Sullivan has collected some commentary that argues against my suggestion that the House could potentially flip in 2014. There were some good points made. However, it should be noted that some of these analysts’ comments have been OBE (Overtaken By Events) – the shutdown. The incredible numbers in yesterday’s NBC/WSJ poll pretty much demonstrate that point: approval of the Republican party is at an all-time low…and 60% of voters would vote out every single member of Congress at once including their own if given the chance.

All of the arguments on this subject can and should be quantified. It’s just like last year’s Presidential race: is any of this punditry data-based? Today I start to outline a true prediction. I give a “toy model,” i.e. step 1 toward something more realistic. The toy model relies on a prediction of popular vote only. At the end, I start to add a little bit of complication. I invite you to add more complication in comments.

Provisionally, it looks like the following: In a little over a week, the shutdown has increased the probability of a Democratic House takeover in 2014 from 13% to as high as 50%....

The correlation between polls now and eventual outcome is r=+0.89, which is pretty good. Basically, polls now are fairly predictive of Election Day, but Democrats are likely to lose ground by then**. The average movement is Delta=3.4% toward Republicans, with a standard deviation of 4.0%. To account for further uncertainty, I will bump that standard deviation up to 5.0% for prediction purposes....

Converting votes to seats. If shifts in opinion occur nationwide by the same amount in every district, the probability of a Democratic takeover is the probability that their popular margin will exceed D+7%, the threshold number in the 2012 election. Then the probability of Republican retention of the House is 78% post-shutdown, or odds of 4-1 in their favor. That is not so far from most analysts’ views. (To put this in perspective, applying this method in October 2009 would have predicted the 2010 GOP takeover with a probability of about 70%.)

However, the shutdown has upended things, and the shift is not equal across districts, as indicated by the MoveOn data. To repeat yesterday’s point, gerrymandered districts have swung by an average of 16 points against Republican incumbents. (Note, 10:47am: 12 new PPP polls reinforce the picture. Gerrymandered R’s have slipped an average of 15.6%, compared with 8.6% for non-gerrymandered R’s. It’s highly significant, p=0.01 [spreadsheet].).
Click to expand...

http://election.princeton.edu/2013/10/10/a-prediction-for-2014-house-elections-take-1/
 
I

ido

Member
pigeon said:
I'm not saying, I'm just saying:
Click to expand...

That is pretty damning for the GOP. With any luck, they will continue their streak of bad decisions for the next year to keep these numbers low.

Listening to Rush(I don't know, leave me alone), it's clear he sides with the Tea Party. That sweet, sweet divide.

Hopefully soon the GOP will fold in half.
 
D

Diablos

Member
It would be awesome if the GOP split in half. The Tea Party becomes the Libertarian/Freedom/Patriot Party or something. So delicious.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Link said:
Jesus, CNN. They have the CEO of Starbucks on just to say both sides are at fault and they need to negotiate. This is why you're a joke of a network.
Click to expand...
Did he think he was at the iPad 5 unveiling event or something?
 
B

bonercop

Member
APKmetsfan said:
Senate vs. House republicans



He's eerily obsessed with them. He disappears for long stretchs and then randomly pops up with ways to end the two most popular government programs. Its clear he REALLY wants to cut them, he's been wanting to since he got into office
Click to expand...

the entire beltway seems to have turned it into a holy crusade, tbh. whispering the same handful of disingenuous, awful platitudes to themselves,
"i'm very serious about entitlement reform"
"we gotta get these entitlements under control"

whenever i hear this, i immediately want to dropkick the person
 
R

ridethepiggy

Banned
Paul Ryan:
"The way I see it, our job is to preserve our values in the 21st century," the ranking member on the House Budget Committee said in a video address at Values Voter Summit. "We need to apply our principles to the challenges of today. And that means we need to completely rethink government's role in our lives.

"We need to completely rethink government's role in helping the most vulnerable," Ryan added. "We need to completely rethink government's role in health care. That means we can never give up on repealing and replacing Obamacare."
Click to expand...
 
V

Videoneon

Member
not sure if this has been covered in the "GOP is imploding" thread, but there have been recent Ted Cruz sightings in the wild. Exercise caution--Ted Cruz can be harmful.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/10/11/ted-cruz-faces-hecklers/

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.), the leading advocate of defunding the Affordable Care Act in the budget debate, faced hecklers multiple times Friday during his speech at the Values Voter Summit in Washington, in which he continued to rail against the health-care law.

"The nice thing is the left will always, always, always tell you who they fear," Cruz told the crowd after one of the interruptions. "And they fear you."

One of the hecklers Cruz faced called on him to support a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants.

At one point, chants of "USA! USA!" erupted from the audience, which sought to drown out the protesters.
Click to expand...

In his speech, Cruz credited supporters with triggering the national debate about the Affordable Care Act. He said he does not know how the fight will end, but called for House Republicans to stand firm.

"In my view, the House of Representatives needs to keep doing what [they're] doing, which is standing strong," Cruz said.
Click to expand...

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/oct/11/ted-cruz-heckled-during-his-impassioned-remarks-va/

“How scared is the president?” Mr. Cruz said. “Oh, they don’t want the truth to be heard. They definitely don’t want the truth to be heard.”
Click to expand...

The article notes that Cruz rejected plan that Rubio, his neoconservative compatriot, helped craft. The House GOP hasn't taken up the bill.

----

Bonus: Megyn Kelly of FOX News asks Ted Fucking Cruz: "What's it like to be the most hated man in America?
 
X

xnipx

Member
B-Dubs said:
His stupid politics don't take away from what he's accomplished. All we need to do is understand that none of our heroes are perfect, that's just the way the world works.



I love these numbers.
Click to expand...

I'm sorry but comparing obamacare to slavery crosses lines I can't tolerate as a black man. Especially coming from another black man
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
"Closer to the danger zone"

Does he think democrats need a +15 margin on the generic ballot or what

More polls from notorious Rasmussen equivalent, PPP


Same deal as the first batch, with push polling Dems also win MI-08, NJ-03, VA-10, for a total of 8 pickups. Coupled with the last round, that's 22 seats where Democrats are currently leading, and 29 where Democrats are leading after respondents are reminded that their representative is shutting down the government.

As long as OFA campaigns hard and Republicans keep finding ways to screw up going into the next election (which they always have), Democrats will pick up 30 seats.
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lol come on man

There's no guarantee that these numbers will carry over. It happened in 2006 but that was an entirely different situation: an unpopular incumbent and his war being rejected. Traditionally the second midterm election goes against the incumbent, or is a minimum gain.

Another thing: polls also show D margins decrease once actual names are used instead of "generic D."
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
pigeon said:
I'm not saying, I'm just saying:

http://election.princeton.edu/2013/10/10/a-prediction-for-2014-house-elections-take-1/
Click to expand...
It should be noted that Republicans did the same thing in 2000 that they did in 2010, and tried to gerrymander themselves into the majority. This came completely undone in 2006 and 2008, and it's where the term "dummymander" came from - specifically in Pennsylvania where Republicans stretched themselves so thin that it didn't take much movement towards the Democrats to sweep in many of them in districts previously thought to be safe.

You could probably say that the 2010 gerrymander has been more effective in the short term, but with this big of a swing, it'll just become undone even sooner.

PhoenixPause said:
lol come on man

There's no guarantee that these numbers will carry over. It happened in 2006 but that was an entirely different situation: an unpopular incumbent and his war being rejected. Traditionally the second midterm election goes against the incumbent, or is a minimum gain.
Click to expand...
You don't think Republicans aren't going to pull something like this again? It's not like the budget fight in 2011 where both parties suffered, the GOP is overwhelmingly taking the blame from voters. And if they pull something like this, it'll be the same story. The tea party faction is incredibly hard to predict, no one thought the government would actually shut down and that Boehner and Obama would reach some eleventh hour deal like always. But nope, here we are, full steam ahead.

Another thing: polls also show D margins decrease once actual names are used instead of "generic D."
Click to expand...
But this would also be a problem with congressional generic ballot polls, which have proven valuable in past elections.

Steve Israel said candidate recruitment has improved drastically since the shutdown. I wouldn't be surprised if these polls are pushing strong Democratic candidates in many districts. There's a Democrat in Lee Terry's district that the DCCC was desperately trying to recruit and he said no, but has now said he might change his mind based on Terry's actions (and probably his polling numbers).
 
D

Diablos

Member
PhoenixPause said:
lol come on man

There's no guarantee that these numbers will carry over. It happened in 2006 but that was an entirely different situation: an unpopular incumbent and his war being rejected. Traditionally the second midterm election goes against the incumbent, or is a minimum gain.

Another thing: polls also show D margins decrease once actual names are used instead of "generic D."
Click to expand...
So why not incremental gains in 2014 + Hilldawg pushing Dems over the top in 2016? I personally think that's the most likely scenario if we are to assume Dems can win back the House.

Yes, gerrymandering will offset a lot of Dem votes next year, but two years after that, Hillary at the top of the ticket will get Democrats out to vote, pushing them over the top.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
PhoenixPause said:
lol come on man

There's no guarantee that these numbers will carry over. It happened in 2006 but that was an entirely different situation: an unpopular incumbent and his war being rejected. Traditionally the second midterm election goes against the incumbent, or is a minimum gain.

Another thing: polls also show D margins decrease once actual names are used instead of "generic D."
Click to expand...

We've had wave elections the last two midterms though. Will be interesting to see what happens
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Diablos said:
So why not incremental gains in 2014 + Hilldawg pushing Dems over the top in 2016? I personally think that's the most likely scenario if we are to assume Dems can win back the House.

Yes, gerrymandering will offset a lot of Dem votes next year, but two years after that, Hillary at the top of the ticket will get Democrats out to vote, pushing them over the top.
Click to expand...

That's pretty much my hoped for scenario, and what I think is likely if things fall into place, which they seem to be.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Diablos said:
So why not incremental gains in 2014 + Hilldawg pushing Dems over the top in 2016? I personally think that's the most likely scenario if we are to assume Dems can win back the House.

Yes, gerrymandering will offset a lot of Dem votes next year, but two years after that, Hillary at the top of the ticket will get Democrats out to vote, pushing them over the top.
Click to expand...

I agree this is a likely scenario. Say democrats picked up 6-7 seats next year: that would position them to take the House in 2016 thanks to Hillary. But it's worth noting that there are many districts where Hillary would barely do better than Obama, due to gerrymandering.
 
C

Captain Pants

Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
Diablos said:
It would be awesome if the GOP split in half. The Tea Party becomes the Libertarian/Freedom/Patriot party or something. So delicious.
Click to expand...

I always wonder what happens if the GOP sheds the crazy wing. My first thought is that the Democrats dominate everything on a national level for a good decade or so while conservatives fight among themselves, but I wonder if the GOP could rebrand enough to be the party of middle America. I think things are going to swing left for a while, but I worry that a moderate Republican party starts to seem really sensible if you've got most of the crazies holed up in a third party.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
ridethepiggy said:
Paul Ryan:
Click to expand...
"We need to completely rethink government's role in helping the most vulnerable," Ryan added. "We need to completely rethink government's role in health care. That means we can never give up on repealing and replacing Obamacare."
Click to expand...

Wait, so is he arguing that government should NOT help the most vulnerable?

Because that reads exactly like, "Hey--we really need to help the needy, so we're going to take away the #1 thing that's going to help the needy."
 
G

Grakl

Member
if an actual party split happened in the GOP that would mean the democrats would always get what they want, so it aint happening

GOP is doing the right thing by already eschewing tea party members - watch the upcoming election ads and the GOP becoming more moderate in response to the tea party's antics this year

at least I hope so, haha
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
@ByronYork 38s

In WH meet with senators, Obama says he is angry about Obamacare exchange malfunctions; refuses to budge on individual mandate…
Click to expand...

Would love to get more of Obama's thoughts on the exchange fuck ups. He's lucky as hell that the shutdown has almost entirely hid the story, and that the NBC poll even showed some people blamed the shutdown for the malfunctions. I noticed they had added the ability to view estimates of premiums without being forced to sign up - that's good progress, and it actually works so far.

Surprised we haven't heard any reports of what Cruz did/said, if anything, in the WH. McCain noted that Obama was talking with all the members and being quite cordial.
 
D

Drakeon

Member
Captain Pants said:
I always wonder what happens if the GOP sheds the crazy wing. My first thought is that the Democrats dominate everything on a national level for a good decade or so while conservatives fight among themselves, but I wonder if the GOP could rebrand enough to be the party of middle America. I think things are going to swing left for a while, but I worry that a moderate Republican party starts to seem really sensible if you've got most of the crazies holed up in a third party.
Click to expand...

It'd be nice to have a sensible conservative party. Or, more sane anyways. I welcome the time where I feel as if I have a choice in voting in general elections, instead of voting Democrat, because im not fucking crazy.

Although, I'd prefer the moderate republicans to merge with the democrats and then a true leftist party (green + progressive wing of dems) rise. We really need to move the overton window left.
 
Link

Link

The Autumn Wind
Am I the only one who doesn't see the healthcare website issues as a big deal? People have months to sign up. I'm sure it'll be sorted out soon enough.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Drakeon said:
It'd be nice to have a sensible conservative party. Or, more sane anyways. I welcome the time where I feel as if I have a choice in voting in general elections, instead of voting Democrat, because im not fucking crazy.

Although, I'd prefer the moderate republicans to merge with the democrats and then a true leftist party (green + progressive wing of dems) rise. We really need to move the overton window left.
Click to expand...
I could see there being three parties in the future. A tea party that represents the fringe of the GOP that ends up coalescing with libertarians, an establishment party that represents the "middle," moderate on social issues and Clinton-esque fiscal conservatives, whose balls the media will wash in its formative years (all of the Lincoln Chafee, Susan Collins, Jon Huntsman, Chris Christie etc types will be a part of this along with conservative Democrats like Matheson) and the Democratic Party, which might essentially resemble a more pragmatic Green Party. I wouldn't wager many Democrats would actually jump ship, the splinter would mostly occur within the GOP, but it would bear out in future elections and especially in congressional elections.
 
M

Mike M

Nick N
Link said:
Am I the only one who doesn't see the healthcare website issues as a big deal? People have months to sign up. I'm sure it'll be sorted out soon enough.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I've been conditioned by years of launch window server issues for every AAA title with significant online components ever. I just flat out expected this.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Link said:
Am I the only one who doesn't see the healthcare website issues as a big deal? People have months to sign up. I'm sure it'll be sorted out soon enough.
Click to expand...
I JUST WANNA SEE MY ELIGIBILITY RESULTS -_-

Anyone else having this problem? Blank screen after you try to view your eligibility results?
 
S

smokeandmirrors

Banned
Link said:
Am I the only one who doesn't see the healthcare website issues as a big deal? People have months to sign up. I'm sure it'll be sorted out soon enough.
Click to expand...

Nope. Happens all the time with software development. You can test test test but until you know your full demand you can't really do much about it.
 
O

Owzers

Member
Plinko said:
Wait, so is he arguing that government should NOT help the most vulnerable?

Because that reads exactly like, "Hey--we really need to help the needy, so we're going to take away the #1 thing that's going to help the needy."
Click to expand...

We tried it and it didn't work.

Let's hunt poor people for sport instead. Or everyone rich person and "adopt" 5 people and have them work around the house for food and shelter.
 
D

Diablos

Member
PhoenixPause said:
Would love to get more of Obama's thoughts on the exchange fuck ups. He's lucky as hell that the shutdown has almost entirely hid the story, and that the NBC poll even showed some people blamed the shutdown for the malfunctions. I noticed they had added the ability to view estimates of premiums without being forced to sign up - that's good progress, and it actually works so far.

Surprised we haven't heard any reports of what Cruz did/said, if anything, in the WH. McCain noted that Obama was talking with all the members and being quite cordial.
Click to expand...
As would I.

I understand there is a LONG time to enroll -- my beef is that there have been three years to prepare for this. They had to know there would be overwhelming demand.
 
Link

Link

The Autumn Wind
Diablos said:
I JUST WANNA SEE MY ELIGIBILITY RESULTS -_-

Anyone else having this problem? Blank screen after you try to view your eligibility results?
Click to expand...
Admittedly, I have not tried going through the process since I have coverage through my job. I'm sure it's frustrating, though.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
‏smart take
@CarrieNBCNews 4m
Cruz disputes methodology of NBC/WSJ poll. "That's not reflective of where this country is." (via @kasie)
Click to expand...
‏@jaketapper 49s
President Romney agrees RT @CarrieNBCNews: Cruz disputes methodology of NBC/WSJ poll. "That's not reflective of where this country is."
Click to expand...
So good.gif

Edit:
@mpoindc: Cruz said that b/c 20% of NBC polls were govt employees, results nil. But our pollsters suggest that number is about par
Click to expand...
 
I

ido

Member
Link said:
Admittedly, I have not tried going through the process since I have coverage through my job. I'm sure it's frustrating, though.
Click to expand...

I'm lucky enough to have my family on my wife's insurance(she works at an insurance company, so her rates are unusually great)... My job offers really shitty insurance, though, but they pay the premium, at least.

Using healthcare.gov I have found works best with... internet explorer. I've at the very least created an account and answered a handful of questions.
 
X

xnipx

Member
Diablos said:
As would I.

I understand there is a LONG time to enroll -- my beef is that there have been three years to prepare for this. They had to know there would be overwhelming demand.
Click to expand...

And rock star should have known that gta 5 would sell like a billion copies and bought a server farm the size to Texas to compensate.
 
R

ridethepiggy

Banned
APKmetsfan said:
‏smart take
Click to expand...

dean-chambers.jpg
 
F

FLEABttn

Banned
RustyNails said:
That screed from Paul Ryan makes no sense. How does healthcare/hospitals work in libertopia anyway?
Click to expand...

Not too dissimilar from prior to Obamacare and the Emergency Medical Treatment and Active Labor Act, but that entirely depends on how "deep" you get into libertopia. In short though, people would get priced out of the market and anything that you can't afford would be provided by charity or likely nobody at all if charity fails to provide.
 
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