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[eBay Huckster]

There will not be a shut down in 2014, write that down. McConnell is on record opposed to one, and there is nothing Boehner can gain from instigating another. The republican strategy should be to just wait and let Obamacare implode. Personally I do not think it will implode, the point is that it's the best option for republicans right now. Then if they win the senate (unlikely) they'll be able to dictate terms during the next budget battle.

friendly reminder that neither of these things stopped them last month

 

[Wilsongt]

It's like right after the first debate in here.

I'm just being realistic (and cynical!) =D

 

[Incognito]

Who knows what the dominating news story will be in October 2014.

another failed open enrollement rollout?

 

[ivysaur12]

@LukeRussert 1m
Growing anger among House Ds towards WH over "u got it, u like it, u keep it" lie. 1 tells me, "WH doesn't have our back."

@LukeRussert 48s
House D tells me: "there's a growing revolt among Ds, WH broke their word. We have to vote by Friday on a fix & they have no plan b."

Oy.

 

[Aaron Strife]

friendly reminder that neither of these things stopped them last month

seriously. boehner and mcconnell insisted many times that there'd be no shutdown and some midnight deal would save them yet again.

 

[Wilsongt]

Oy.

Thanks, Obama. You had one job, and you fucked it up.

 

[Incognito]

if the White House's mouthpiece is saying this...

Obamacare is in much more trouble than it was one week ago

then it's time to man some lifeboats.

10. The biggest problem for Obamacare is that HealthCare.gov remains a mess. If HealthCare.gov was working smoothly, a lot of the people getting insurance cancellations would be learning that they'll have better, cheaper insurance under the law. And at the same time, a lot of people who couldn't get insurance at all would be learning that they were going to get affordable coverage. "The number of winners will vastly outweigh the number of losers but no one knows that yet because of this Web site," says Gruber.

11. The biggest problem for the Obama administration in protecting the law is that they're losing credibility with congressional Democrats -- and, frankly, everyone else. They passed the law based in part on promises they couldn't keep. They botched the implementation terribly. And now it looks like they may not have HealthCare.gov fixed by the deadline they set for themselves. Congressional Democrats feel burned by them -- but even worse than that, they don't feel able to trust them. And Democrats looking toward 2014 are going to be made very nervous by this chart, first posted by our friends at The Fix:

 

[ivysaur12]

Thanks, Obama. You had one job, and you fucked it up.

This is awful. Thank god the midterms are still a year away, but still. A total clusterfuck.

 

[Incognito]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs.../?Post+generic=?tid=sm_twitter_washingtonpost

A new poll shows New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) in a virtual tie with former secretary of state Hillary Clinton in a potential 2016 matchup.

The Quinnipiac University poll shows Christie at 43 percent and Clinton at 42 percent.

It comes as Christie's landslide win in his reelection campaign last week has led to increased speculation about his 2016 prospects. An NBC News poll last week showed Christie trailing Clinton 44-34 but doing well among several key demographics, including Latinos and young people. (NBC's sample was among all adults while Quinnipiac's poll is among registered voters.)

The Quinnipiac poll also shows Christie doing well among Latinos, trailing Clinton just 46-38. GOP nominee Mitt Romney in 2012 took just 27 percent of the Hispanic vote.

 

[Diablos]

What's really crazy is, despite all Obama/Dems fought for, despite the law being upheld by its very passage, the SCOTUS, and a crazy re-election year, the ACA's greatest blow thus far is a self-inflicted wound.

The fact we even need legislation that wouldn't be necessary had the website been working as anticipated is really depressing. I mean, just last month Dems were in lockstep about this thing. Now they're starting to bail, the website isn't necessarily going to be fixed in time, we're going to get legislation that will potentially create a huge exploit in that insurance companies will be able to continue selling garbage plans to people because they simply can't see what is available to them on a dysfunctional website.

if the White House's mouthpiece is saying this...

then it's time to man some lifeboats.

I was thinking Bill Clinton is a good indicator too:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/11/12/bill-clinton-health-care_n_4260184.html

Former President Bill Clinton said Tuesday that the health care law should be changed if necessary to allow people to keep their health care plans that have been canceled as a result of the implementation of Obamacare.

"I personally believe, even if it takes changing the law, the president should honor the commitment the federal government made to those people and let them keep what they got," Clinton told OZY TV.

 

[ivysaur12]

What's really crazy is, despite all Obama/Dems fought for, despite the law being upheld by its very passage, the SCOTUS, and a crazy re-election year, the ACA's greatest blow thus far is a self-inflicted wound.

The fact we even need legislation that wouldn't be necessary had the website been working as anticipated is really depressing. I mean, just last month Dems were in lockstep about this thing. Now they're starting to bail, the website isn't necessarily going to be fixed in time, we're going to get legislation that will potentially create a huge exploit in that insurance companies will be able to continue selling garbage plans to people because they simply can't see what is available to them on a dysfunctional website.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/11/12/bill-clinton-health-care_n_4260184.html

I don't know -- the plans would still be canceled if the website was working or not. The difference is that it would be easier for people to find a comparatively cheaper plan.

 

[Diablos]

I don't know -- the plans would still be canceled if the website was working or not. The difference is that it would be easier for people to find a comparatively cheaper plan.

I know, I said as much. But we wouldn't need legislation that allows insurance companies to peddle garbage plans onto people for at least another year if the fucking website would work as it was expected to. The whole purpose of this legislation is to capitalize on the fact that people cannot figure out where they go next in terms of coverage despite having a plan that was canceled. It's a legislative answer to a problem that lies mainly with code for a website. If that problem did not exist, people would be able to see they can still get coverage that is in fact better than what they had (if not almost the same save some marginal improvements). They can't, so this legislation addresses it by creating a time paradox of sorts where insurance companies can continue to sell HORRIBLE plans to people even though we have sweeping reforms in place that would permit them to get something respectable if the fucking website would just work after three years of time that should have been spent ensuring it did at launch.

Frankly, no matter how unanticipated the revolt against this law from GOP Governors was, they drew their line in the sand right after the law was passed three years ago. That gave the people who designed healthcare.gov and the WH plenty of time to plan for that.

Having separate federal sites for individual states would be a great way to go, for one.

Of all the things that would have challenged this law at the onset, I didn't think it would be something like this. It's just sad, and as a Democrat, embarrassing. I just got a call from an old co-worker who is on the verge of going completely bankrupt and she's having problems signing up. It's hard for me to defend the website when you see how someone like that would benefit from it working as designed. There's really no excuse.

I'm not Diablosing, I'm pissed.

Fuck the House, I just hope we hold the Senate and this doesn't hurt Hillary in 2016.

 

[empty vessel]

This is a situation in which directing ire towards Obama would best be directed towards those claiming that Obama's "lie" and the website problems are meaningful issues. That includes whining House Democrats. Attacking Obama from the right--and giving credence to ultimately trivial complaints--is totally counterproductive.

I don't care if insurance companies cancelled weak plans that people had; nor should most people. And the website's problems, while annoying, are hardly meaningful. It might require some alteration to avoid penalizing people who because of those problems could not obtain coverage in time, and some other alternative measures to sign people up, but it is not a meaningful problem in real terms. Allowing the right to capitalize on these things is a mistake. House Democrats can afford to whine (and are sometimes politically compelled to whine) because people like us are insufficiently vigilant in calling out and standing up to the right's bullshit. It is up to us to create the circumstances in which Democratic whining is politically unfeasible.

If you live in a district with a whining House Democrat, call them up and tell them to can it.

 

[Avon Barksdale]

Nobody's going to care about Healthcare.gov in three years.

 

[The Librarian]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs.../?Post+generic=?tid=sm_twitter_washingtonpost

2016 polls are meaningless this far out. You know that.

 

[jWILL253]

WikiLeaks strikes again: http://www.theguardian.com/media/2013/nov/13/wikileaks-trans-pacific-partnership-chapter-secret
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2013/11/fast-track-authority-obama-trans-pacific-partnership
http://www.theverge.com/2013/11/13/5099774/the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-in-the-leaked-tpp-treaty

Obama needs to fall back, for real...

Fixed the links...

 

[Diablos]

WikiLeaks strikes again: http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...t-on-democracy

Obama needs to fall back, for real...

Damn, he managed to get your link 404'd. THANKS OBAMA

 

[cartoon_soldier]

It's ridiculous how badly the rollout has been managed.

The most important thing for the law has been completely fucking mismanaged.

 

[empty vessel]

Yes, I think there's a lot more room for personal responsibility in America.

It's definitely the case that people sometimes say "Well, they just need more personal responsibility" as a way to write-off challenges by other (often poor, often black/Hispanic) people without removing the plank in their own eye. (See Just World Hypothesis.)

But it's our moral responsibility to help people make good decisions just as much as it is our job to keep them from going broke. I definitely used to be a believer that we just need more taxes on the wealthy to erase all the inequality in society. But after getting out in the world and seeing friends from rougher backgrounds make terrible financial decisions or get into drug problems, I realize how hard it is do well in the world when you're not surrounded by a culture/environment that supports good decision-making.

Don't get me wrong, I fully support things like progressive taxation and unemployment insurance. But government policies don't and can't go everywhere, so we need to make our society equips our citizens with the ability to make good decisions when they encounter a situation that doesn't have a specific government regulation applying to it. When we don't teach people these things, the result is that only people who grow up in stable, well-educated families have access to financial or medical decision-making skills, and that's another form of inequality.

If we can teach French history in school, surely we could make sure students get a course on personal finance--why don't we? If we want the wealthy to pay their fair share instead of moving money into tax shelters, we need to make duty to society/government an American value again--how about we get rid of Howard Zinn and bring back the Pledge of Allegiance? If we're worried about sexually-transmitted diseases and kids growing up in single-parent homes, why are allowing so much smut on the radio and TV instead of emphasizing romantic/sexual commitment?

Our focus on individualism and instant gratification is really a problem at all our levels of society. There's a direct relation between telling to "be themselves" at the expense of everyone else and hedge fund managers risking our entire economy to advance their personal wealth, between schools only teaching everything bad about American history and government and libertarian nutjobs who won't let the government vaccinate their kids.

I don't really have anything to say about most of this, but I will say that if your school taught "everything bad about American history," you did not go to a mainstream American school. And I don't think making kids recite a pledge in cult-like fashion is probably the best means to inculcate them with a sense of social responsibility.

 

[speculawyer]

10. The biggest problem for Obamacare is that HealthCare.gov remains a mess. If HealthCare.gov was working smoothly, a lot of the people getting insurance cancellations would be learning that they'll have better, cheaper insurance under the law. And at the same time, a lot of people who couldn't get insurance at all would be learning that they were going to get affordable coverage. "The number of winners will vastly outweigh the number of losers but no one knows that yet because of this Web site," says Gruber.

If that is accurate then everyone is just Diablosing. The website will get fixed eventually, people will get good coverage, and it will all be forgotten.

But the question is whether that is really true or not. The web site mess doesn't bother me . . . that will get fixed eventually. The real issue is the cost of the insurance, getting enough young people to sign up, etc. It is the actuarial stuff that I worry about.


Re: Christie v. Clinton. Christie's needs to survive the GOP primary. The big question is will be whether the GOP goes the "We were not conservative enough!" route or moderates. Christie may end up doing what Romney did . . . go too far right to win the primary but then end up looking like a hard-right jerk in the general.

 

[Diablos]

If Christie wins the primary he's gonna make for a formidable candidate. Even if he models himself after Romney's campaign, he's not Romney, and will be able to save face much better than Romney ever could. Christie also has a quality Romney never really did: Coming off as being a human being who understands what people are going through, not some heartless CEO who actually says shit such as "I like firing people" and "corporations are people, my friend!"

Remains to be seen how well Hillary's campaign will be this time around. If she goes with idiots like Mark Penn it's over before it started. I really hope she learned from 2008. One thing is for sure, it'll be surprising if she can get to OFA levels of campaign prowess.

 

[PhoenixDark]

I don't know -- the plans would still be canceled if the website was working or not. The difference is that it would be easier for people to find a comparatively cheaper plan.

That's what Ezra Klein argued today. There would simply be less of a story, and less panic, if the website allowed people to quickly prepare for January 1st. Instead many are left in the dark, while others will certainly be forced into more expensive, high deductible plans.

 

[Mario]

What's really crazy is, despite all Obama/Dems fought for, despite the law being upheld by its very passage, the SCOTUS, and a crazy re-election year, the ACA's greatest blow thus far is a self-inflicted wound.

I would argue that if the Republicans had actually worked with Democrats in a bipartisan manner to address their "real" concerns and ensure proper oversight as opposed to their wasteful repeal it 100% or nothing efforts then both public support and the rollout would likely be in better shape.

The greatest blow to the ACA was and still is Republicans trying to poison the law and public opinion.

The website rollout is a huge screwup, but Obama and the Democrats are operating in an environment that was already hostile and waiting for a chink in the armour.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Oy.

It was only a matter of time before the WH's indifference towards House (and senate) democrats bit them in the ass. Obama really reminds me of W Bush in terms of not really giving a shit about back patting his own party. That isolation just doesn't work once you reach the second term and things start falling apart (which happens with nearly every two term president).

The WH should be out there giving specific guidelines on this, because a bad bill can fuck the law. Republicans want to pass something that allows shitty healthcare plans to still be issued. Anything that does not JUST grandfather existing bad plans should be rejected.

 

[Black Mamba]

This thread is starting to get unbearable. None of this matters today in terms of elections so stop talking about it.

 

[Diablos]

I would argue that if the Republicans had actually worked with Democrats in a bipartisan manner to address their "real" concerns and ensure proper oversight as opposed to their wasteful repeal it 100% or nothing efforts then both public support and the rollout would likely be in better shape.

The greatest blow to the ACA was and still is Republicans trying to poison the law and public opinion.

The website rollout is a huge screwup, but Obama and the Democrats are operating in an environment that was already hostile and waiting for a chink in the armour.

Bullocks. Obama is quite politically aware. He knows how badly the GOP wants this law to crash and burn. He knows they would not do him any favors if outside factors and his lack of addressing them in time would happen to doom the rollout of this website/law. So this is completely on him. No excuses this time. There are none, and that's what really sucks. All this time we had high hopes for the ACA, fearing the GOP would sabotage it -- they did not, no matter how hard they tried. The only thing that has sabotaged the ACA are things that happened under the direction of people responsible for implementing it. That's a fucking tragedy.

 

[The Librarian]

This thread is starting to get unbearable. None of this matters today in terms of elections so stop talking about it.

@samsteinhp: OCARE DATA: 106,185 state + fed enrollees; 396,261 eligible for Medicaid; 975,407 applied/determined eligible but haven't selected a plan

Doom

 

[Diablos]

@samsteinhp: OCARE DATA: 106,185 state + fed enrollees; 396,261 eligible for Medicaid; 975,407 applied/determined eligible but haven't selected a plan

Doom

Of those 975,407, how many of them are people like me who are covered through 2014 and just genuinely curious as to what they could get?

All the more reason why letting people see what they were eligible for before having to go through the entire registration process would have been much more ideal.

 

[bananas]

When did everyone in politics who wasn't a batshit insane tea partier lose their goddamn balls?

If Democrats in Congress try to change the law this far out from the midterms, they fucking deserve to lose the Senate.

Unfortunately I think the Tea Party Republicans deserve it even less, so it's a real shit show of a choice right now.

 

[PhoenixDark]

This thread is starting to get unbearable. None of this matters today in terms of elections so stop talking about it.

This is why this thread is unbearable in fact: the constant focus on politics and elections over policy, and never ending spin.

The website is fucked/won't be ready by December 15th, millions are losing their healthcare, and House democrats sound like they're about to pass a bad republican bill.

Waving around Medicaid sign ups is like celebrating free steak sales. Of course giving people free healthcare is a success. The issue is sign ups for the exchange.

 

[WayneMorse]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/...djustment-regarding-the-Fix-at-Healthcare-gov

I'll give you my perspective on Healthcare.gov post-launch tech surge -- but, first, I'd like to repeat what you already know: The mad-dog political hysteria going on in congressional hearings and derp-news are nothing more than a continuation of the attempt to kill the PPACA. It is noise.

The Surge Team will meet and perhaps even beat the deadline, as Healthcare.gov improves hourly. There is absolutely no need to fret over this.

 

[WayneMorse]

Also I'm pretty sure Chris Christie will burn out with a sputtering wet fart by the time New Hampshire rolls around in 2016. He's got too much baggage from his time as US Attorney, and I have had the misfortune of listening to far right talk radio like Glenn Beck and he's been going hard against Christie these past couple of days.

 

[Link]

This is why this thread is unbearable in fact: the constant focus on politics and elections over policy, and never ending spin.

The website is fucked/won't be ready by December 15th, millions are losing their healthcare, and House democrats sound like they're about to pass a bad republican bill.

Did you really just type these two paragraphs back-to-back? Jesus Christ, you're such a joke. You'd be the first person on my ignore list if you weren't constantly posting shit so stupid that everyone else just quotes it anyway.

 

[Diablos]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/...djustment-regarding-the-Fix-at-Healthcare-gov

Meet or perhaps beat deadlines?

I'll believe it when I see it, but that gave me some hope.

 

[TacticalFox88]

Damn, shit's getting hostile in here.

:/

 

[Aaron Strife]

Did you really just type these two paragraphs back-to-back? Jesus Christ, you're such a joke. You'd be the first person on my ignore list if you weren't constantly posting shit so stupid that everyone else just quotes it anyway.

Have you met PD?

He's GAF's own Dick Morris.

 

[B-Dubs]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/...djustment-regarding-the-Fix-at-Healthcare-gov

I will be surprised if they don't meet the deadline.

Also I'm pretty sure Chris Christie will burn out with a sputtering wet fart by the time New Hampshire rolls around in 2016. He's got too much baggage from his time as US Attorney, and I have had the misfortune of listening to far right talk radio like Glenn Beck and he's been going hard against Christie these past couple of days.

Even if he doesn't flame out, he will stab himself in the face during the primary. I will guarantee this. If it doesn't happen bring up this post and I'll eat my crow.

 

[Averon]

Jesus Christ. PoliGAF is going through a mini meltdown.

Calm down, people.

 

[Link]

Damn, shit's getting hostile in here.

:/

I'll kill you!

 

[Aaron Strife]

I'll kill you!

I'll kill all of you!

Especially those of you on the jury!

 

[ivysaur12]

EVERYONE CALM DOWN GAY MARRIAGE IS LEGAL IN HAWAII LET'S ALL HUG

EDIT: LOOK AT THE MAP IT'S CHANGED AND IT'S GOING TO CHANGE AGAIN ON THE 20TH

 

[cartoon_soldier]

I don't care about the enrollment numbers right now, they don't matter if the site isn't working flawlessly.

I am sure a bunch of people are not even trying because of the site issues.

 

[Incognito]

With the ps4 and xbox one rolling out, i really dont see how the administration is going to compel the so called 'young invincibles' to sign up by the time open enrollment ends..

 

[PhoenixDark]

Did you really just type these two paragraphs back-to-back? Jesus Christ, you're such a joke. You'd be the first person on my ignore list if you weren't constantly posting shit so stupid that everyone else just quotes it anyway.

Nothing I said wasn't accurate, deal with it.

I support the law and am beyond frustrated by what has turned into nearly two months of glitches, incompetence, and uncertainty. And I cannot stand this mindset that somehow if we all tell each other to calm down and hold the line, things will be fine. Liberals should be on the forefront of demanding this thing be fixed and offering solutions. Ridiculous spin and outright dismissal is not helping.

 

[Diablos]

With the ps4 and xbox one rolling out, i really dont see how the administration is going to compel the so called 'young invincibles' to sign up by the time open enrollment ends..

Healthcare.gov only runs at 720p on Xbone!

 

[Cloudy]

I don't care about the enrollment numbers right now, they don't matter if the site isn't working flawlessly.

I am sure a bunch of people are not even trying because of the site issues.

The numbers aren't even that bad IMO. I expected much less and they have almost a million who haven't picked a plan yet (Cos most people don't commit to new insurance that early)

Also, everyone ignores the medicaid #s (400k) as if only private insurance = healthcare...

 

[Aaron Strife]

EVERYONE CALM DOWN GAY MARRIAGE IS LEGAL IN HAWAII LET'S ALL HUG

EDIT: LOOK AT THE MAP IT'S CHANGED AND IT'S GOING TO CHANGE AGAIN ON THE 20TH

7 states in 2013, not bad, although things are likely to slow down a bit as everything will have to be through the courts. New Mexico's probably next after a court ruling (it's currently legal in 56% of the state as it's been decided on a county-by-county basis) and Oregon will vote on it in 2014. Colorado would be the next state to deal with it legislatively, I suppose, as Nevada can't put it on the ballot until 2016 at the earliest. Michigan has a trial set for February.

The focus in 2014 should be on winning the gubernatorial elections in Wisconsin (Mary Burke), Florida (Charlie Crist), Ohio (Ed FitzGerald), Pennsylvania (Allyson Schwartz) and Michigan (Mark Schauer). For one, they're battleground states and would speak volumes for national politics to legalize it, and if these states had Democratic administrations who refused to defend anti-marriage laws in court, that would effectively nullify them as we saw from the Supreme Court ruling on California. This is also why it was important for Democrats to sweep the Virginia races, which they did, so holla.

Speaking of governors, Jason Carter (grandson of Jimmy) is running in Georgia, apparently prodded by a Democrat-commissioned poll that had Gov. Nathan Deal only up by 8 points (44-36). Good recruit, and running alongside Michelle Nunn should help.

 

[Rhomega Beta]

EVERYONE CALM DOWN GAY MARRIAGE IS LEGAL IN HAWAII LET'S ALL HUG

EDIT: LOOK AT THE MAP IT'S CHANGED AND IT'S GOING TO CHANGE AGAIN ON THE 20TH

Didn't Illinois completely legalize SSM?

 

[PhoenixDark]

The numbers aren't even that bad IMO. I expected much less and they have almost a million who haven't picked a plan yet (Cos most people don't commit to new insurance that early)

Also, everyone ignores the medicaid #s (400k) as if only private insurance = healthcare...

That's not the point. People like free things, they were always going to take advantage of the Medicaid expansion. It's hard to get excited about an inevitability.

Private insurance is what will determine whether Obamacare works or fails.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Didn't Illinois completely legalize SSM?

It's not being signed until the 20th, hence his comment about the map changing.