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Predictions, eh?

2014: Benghazi finally sticks.

2014: Drones, Groans, Scones

2014: GOPcoin crypto currency debuts, it's just gold

2014 2: Electric Boogaloo is dropped from Netflix

2014: 2013 Harder

2014: GOP introduces new front in battle against Obama care. Repeal. And. Replace.

 

[Sibylus]

NYT vote to allow Snowden back on the island: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/02/opinion/edward-snowden-whistle-blower.html?_r=0

 

[Salazar]

-FDR comes back from the dead and saves the world.

Chris Bachelder's US! A Novel features a hectoring zombie Upton Sinclair. Grips the lectern with dead-leather hands, speaks with grave-dirt under his tongue. It's kind of good.

 

[theprodigy]

Just for that, I'm not changing the title.

Cyan had the most recent mod post

Spoiler

yes reverse psychology totally worked!

 

[zero shift]

- Democrats win the House with a commanding 220-215 majority.

I was under the impression that the Democrats could not hold a majority due to gerrymandering, unless there is a big shift toward the Democrats.

 

[Aaron Strife]

I was under the impression that the Democrats could not hold a majority due to gerrymandering, unless there is a big shift toward the Democrats.

It's a pretty lofty expectation but I think the tea party will blow something up again and send the GOP's numbers back down again.

 

[TacticalFox88]

It's a pretty lofty expectation but I think the tea party will blow something up again and send the GOP's numbers back down again.

It's an election year.

I can't even fathom the amount of dumbshit newstories that are going to be coming out this year.

 

[Oblivion]

If y'all got an hour or so to kill, listen to this debate between Sam Seder and some libertarian dude, particularly when they start talking about the minimum wage.

 

[Chichikov]

Chris Bachelder's US! A Novel features a hectoring zombie Upton Sinclair. Grips the lectern with dead-leather hands, speaks with grave-dirt under his tongue. It's kind of good.

You had me at zombie Upton Sinclair.

 

[Mort]

If y'all got an hour or so to kill, listen to this debate between Sam Seder and some libertarian dude, particularly when they start talking about the minimum wage.

You didn't link anything. Did you mean this one with Matt DiGeronimo ?

 

[RustyNails]

Since some of GAF's stock slueths reside on GAF, I have this question on the recent pot legalization in Colorado

Ok so pot is going to sell out in Colorado and people are expecting more demand than supply. Any publicly traded IPOs stockgaf has in mind to get on the reefer madness?

Any tips?

 

[thepotatoman]

Why was it petty? I've read through the comments she and the panel made, and I honestly don't see how she was insulting the kid. Mittens? Yes, but not the kid.

I still think implying an adopted kid doesn't belong in his or her adopted family because of race is one of the meanest things you could possibly ever say.

 

[ivysaur12]

It's a pretty lofty expectation but I think the tea party will blow something up again and send the GOP's numbers back down again.

Of course they will. But will they send them down enough? No. My guess is the House will end up as wash.

 

[Zona]

You had me at zombie Upton Sinclair.

I aimed for their hear, I hit their stomachs, now I'll just settle for their BRAINSSS...

Spoiler

So very, Very Sorry.

 

[PhoenixDark]

It's a pretty lofty expectation but I think the tea party will blow something up again and send the GOP's numbers back down again.

Blow what up? They can't shut down the government for a couple years now, and the debt ceiling remains a line leadership will never cross. They play politics with it, demand concessions...then fold.

There's no indication that democrats can take the house. Generic ballot looks bad and gerrymandering ensures dems need at least a 8 point lead to win the house. That's not going to happen.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Blow what up? They can't shut down the government for a couple years now, and the debt ceiling remains a line leadership will never cross. They play politics with it, demand concessions...then fold.

There's no indication that democrats can take the house. Generic ballot looks bad and gerrymandering ensures dems need at least a 8 point lead to win the house. That's not going to happen.

Leadership also insisted that the government wouldn't shut down.

I don't take anything Boehner or McConnell say at their word.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Leadership also insisted that the government wouldn't shut down.

I don't take anything Boehner or McConnell say at their word.

The government can't be shut down for two years. Republicans won't have a shot at it.

With respect to the debt limit, the last three years have proven they won't cross that line. Boehner told Wall Street he wouldn't let the US default, weeks before the deadline. It should be obvious this is a game of obstruction meant to hurt the economy and play politics, nothing more. They aren't willing to shoot the hostage/bring down the global economy.

Democrats wasted their last opportunity. If not for the website fuck up, we'd still be talking about republicans being on the defensive.

 

[Aaron Strife]

If not for the website fuck up, we'd still be talking about republicans being on the defensive.

 

[Oblivion]

You didn't link anything. Did you mean this one with Matt DiGeronimo ?

Haha, yeah that's the one. Sorry about that. In my defense, it was really late...

I still think implying an adopted kid doesn't belong in his or her adopted family because of race is one of the meanest things you could possibly ever say.

Well, sure. But was that the actual implication?

 

[KingK]

It's a pretty lofty expectation but I think the tea party will blow something up again and send the GOP's numbers back down again.

I don't know about this. The media has been working pretty damn hard to separate the nebulous Tea Party, solely represented by Ted Cruz, from "actual moderate Republicans (meaning anyone who doesn't 100% align with Cruz) who love their country and are just being bullied by Cruz and a couple of his friends. Poor old John Boehner is trying to do the right thing, and deserves all of our sympathy and support."

I think any future damage to the Republican party from their shenanigans will be significantly mitigated by a lot of people thinking "it's not the Republican's fault, it's just the Tea Party," as if they are two separate entities. It's the media's brilliant move to maintain their false equivalency regardless of how batshit the party gets by constantly implying that you can't actually blame Republicans for how they vote, it's all Ted Cruz's fault. Republicans could vote unanimously to kill puppies in front of orphans and the media would be bending over backwards to claim it's not actually the party's fault and members aren't actually responsible for their own votes, it's all on Ted Cruz and the Tea Party. Also, Democrats are just as bad because reasons.

edit: In case you couldn't tell, I'm not quite so optimistic about Dem chances in 2014 lol

 

[Aaron Strife]

I don't know about this. The media has been working pretty damn hard to separate the nebulous Tea Party, solely represented by Ted Cruz, from "actual moderate Republicans (meaning anyone who doesn't 100% align with Cruz) who love their country and are just being bullied by Cruz and a couple of his friends. Poor old John Boehner is trying to do the right thing, and deserves all of our sympathy and support."

I think any future damage to the Republican party from their shenanigans will be significantly mitigated by a lot of people thinking "it's not the Republican's fault, it's just the Tea Party," as if they are two separate entities. It's the media's brilliant move to maintain their false equivalency regardless of how batshit the party gets by constantly implying that you can't actually blame Republicans for how they vote, it's all Ted Cruz's fault. Republicans could vote unanimously to kill puppies in front of orphans and the media would be bending over backwards to claim it's not actually the party's fault and members aren't actually responsible for their own votes, it's all on Ted Cruz and the Tea Party. Also, Democrats are just as bad because reasons.

edit: In case you couldn't tell, I'm not quite so optimistic about Dem chances in 2014 lol

And that's fair. You're right that the media has been pretty complicit in the GOP's attempts to distance itself from the tea party. Their fetish for "moderate" Republicans is what's allowed the party itself to turn so hard right in recent years.

There is already a race that can get Democrats one seat closer to winning the House - FL-13, where Alex Sink has raised over one million dollars (and has about that much cash-on-hand). Her closest GOP opponent raised 170,000 by comparison. Sink has only recently jumped into the race officially, too.

Realistically, I think there is at least a small Dem wave building that will allow them to gain seats in the House and hold down the Senate.

 

[B-Dubs]

I don't know about this. The media has been working pretty damn hard to separate the nebulous Tea Party, solely represented by Ted Cruz, from "actual moderate Republicans (meaning anyone who doesn't 100% align with Cruz) who love their country and are just being bullied by Cruz and a couple of his friends. Poor old John Boehner is trying to do the right thing, and deserves all of our sympathy and support."

I think any future damage to the Republican party from their shenanigans will be significantly mitigated by a lot of people thinking "it's not the Republican's fault, it's just the Tea Party," as if they are two separate entities. It's the media's brilliant move to maintain their false equivalency regardless of how batshit the party gets by constantly implying that you can't actually blame Republicans for how they vote, it's all Ted Cruz's fault. Republicans could vote unanimously to kill puppies in front of orphans and the media would be bending over backwards to claim it's not actually the party's fault and members aren't actually responsible for their own votes, it's all on Ted Cruz and the Tea Party. Also, Democrats are just as bad because reasons.

edit: In case you couldn't tell, I'm not quite so optimistic about Dem chances in 2014 lol

That's fair, but when all the Tea Party candidates are running as Republicans you can only expect so much success with that strategy. Especially if the GOP proper won't denounce their crazy shit (because they secretly support it).

 

[thepotatoman]

Well, sure. But was that the actual implication?

Well just the idea of bringing up the photo with a context of race in a joking matter implies that they thought such a thing was a weird enough thing to point out and make fun of, chuckling before even any jokes were told and laughing simply at "one of these things is not like the other".

And I guess I just think making fun of someone simply for being weird is just another way of saying that someone doesn't belong. The other comments doesn't bother me but the "one of these things is not like the other" really did get under my skin.

But like I said, the apology makes up for it.

 

[KingK]

That's fair, but when all the Tea Party candidates are running as Republicans you can only expect so much success with that strategy. Especially if the GOP proper won't denounce their crazy shit (because they secretly support it).

The GOP doesn't have to denounce their crazy shit though, because the media is too busy doing their damage control for them. They can simultaneously avoid pissing off the crazies as much as possible by not formally denouncing Tea Party crazy, and rely on the media to keep telling moderate R voters and Independents that that's not actually what the GOP thinks, just a couple extremists. Democrats have extremists too!

I'm honestly not sure if that strategy will play out, either, but recent polls seem to indicate that shit works better than I'd hope.

And that's fair. You're right that the media has been pretty complicit in the GOP's attempts to distance itself from the tea party. Their fetish for "moderate" Republicans is what's allowed the party itself to turn so hard right in recent years.

There is already a race that can get Democrats one seat closer to winning the House - FL-13, where Alex Sink has raised over one million dollars (and has about that much cash-on-hand). Her closest GOP opponent raised 170,000 by comparison. Sink has only recently jumped into the race officially, too.

Realistically, I think there is at least a small Dem wave building that will allow them to gain seats in the House and hold down the Senate.

I do think the Dems should be able to keep the senate and make gains in the House without too much difficulty, but I have next to no hope of them getting a majority.

 

[East Lake]

Since some of GAF's stock slueths reside on GAF, I have this question on the recent pot legalization in Colorado

Any tips?

Gaffers aren't likely to know this, even ones in the stock thread.

 

[B-Dubs]

The GOP doesn't have to denounce their crazy shit though, because the media is too busy doing their damage control for them. They can simultaneously avoid pissing off the crazies as much as possible by not formally denouncing Tea Party crazy, and rely on the media to keep telling moderate R voters and Independents that that's not actually what the GOP thinks, just a couple extremists. Democrats have extremists too!

I'm honestly not sure if that strategy will play out, either, but recent polls seem to indicate that shit works better than I'd hope.

I think it's a little early for saying it works. No one is running right now and has a primary opponent from the right. Once the elections roll around and they start going off about legitimate rape again then we'll know if it works or not.

I don't think the media alone will be enough to distance the GOP from the Tea Party because then the obvious question will come out. "If they disagree with what he's saying then why don't they just say so?" There's only so much damage control an outside source can do if they aren't willing to do any. Once that question gets asked, there's no un-asking it.

 

[RustyNails]

I doubt anyone big enough to be listed on a stock exchange is going to be selling pot anytime soon.

That made me lol.

I thought pharma would be all over this.

 

[ClassyPenguin]

I thought pharma would be all over this.

In due time, I guess.
Imagine the patents on new strains and the pharmaceutical evergreening. And the TV commercials.

 

[B-Dubs]

That made me lol.

I thought pharma would be all over this.

Odds are they won't jump on until it's legal across the US. No reason to invest in this when it's only one state and it could change back.

 

[PhoenixDark]

And that's fair. You're right that the media has been pretty complicit in the GOP's attempts to distance itself from the tea party. Their fetish for "moderate" Republicans is what's allowed the party itself to turn so hard right in recent years.

There is already a race that can get Democrats one seat closer to winning the House - FL-13, where Alex Sink has raised over one million dollars (and has about that much cash-on-hand). Her closest GOP opponent raised 170,000 by comparison. Sink has only recently jumped into the race officially, too.

Realistically, I think there is at least a small Dem wave building that will allow them to gain seats in the House and hold down the Senate.

Again, there is no evidence to support this claim. None.

Sink ran for governor, she has name recognition and national money - of course she's going to win. Ultimately dems will win 5-6 seats and lose about that much as well.

 

[eBay Huckster]

And as always, just remember:

Kay Hagan is doomed.

 

[gcubed]

And as always, just remember:

Kay Hagan is doomed.

Poor PD

 

[PhoenixDark]

You may laugh now, but as more NC residents lose their healthcare plan, with no Medicaid expansion to fall back on, they'll collectively shake their heads and wonder "why, Hagan, why."

 

[GhaleonEB]

Since some of GAF's stock slueths reside on GAF, I have this question on the recent pot legalization in Colorado

Any tips?

Yglesias had a great post on this earlier today.

With Colorado becoming the first state to offer full legal marijuana purchases starting this month, a few people have asked me if I think getting in on the marijuana business is going to be a smart play. After all, public opinion trends seem to make the spread of legalization all but inevitable.

And, indeed, the bet that pot will be much more widely available through legal channels by 2025 seems very safe to me. But I sort of doubt that marijuana will ever be a lucrative industry. Take away the unique issues caused with illegality and you're talking about a commodity agriculture business. Except unlike corn, you're not going to be able to get congress to subsidize your pot farming operation. Beyond that, everything becomes about tax and regulatory policy. You could easily imagine states opting for a framework in which only licensed specialty marijuana shops can sell the stuff and where licenses are fairly hard to come by. In that scenario, retailing might be very lucrative. Or else the licensing fees might claw back the vast majority of the profits.

Or maybe not. The point is that the actual political forecast you have to make to figure out where the money will end up is much more complicated than "more legal pot." You have to know how the regulatory system will work.

The smart play is really to invest in complementary goods. Things that people are likely to want more of if it becomes cheaper and easier to get marijuana. Doritos, in other words. I'd say marijuana legalization is very bullish for Pepsico (owners of Frito-Lay) and moderately so for Yum Brands (home of the Doritos Locos Taco). But of course before you invest on that advice, keep in mind that the appeal of a marijuana-Doritos pairing isn't exactly a highly guarded secret. Nor is the polling in favor of marijuana legalization. So the coming surge in Doritos purchases is probably already priced into the market.

 

[Oblivion]

Surprised this wasn't posted yet. The GOP's been claiming that 5 million people lost their health insurance cause of Obamacare. This, like most GOP statistics is a number that they pulled out of their asses and haven't ever bothered to substantiate. So Henry Waxman in the house commissioned an actual legitimate study to show what the real numbers are. So how far off were the Republican claims? Oh, just by a minicule factor of five hundred:

* According to the report, half of the 4.7 million will have the option to renew their 2013 plans, thanks to an administrative fix this year.

* Of the remaining 2.35 million individuals, 1.4 million should be eligible for tax credits through the marketplaces or Medicaid, according to the report.

* Of the remaining 950,000 individuals, fewer than 10,000 people in 18 counties will lack access to an affordable catastrophic plan.

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/waxman-challenges-gop-cancellations

Definitely good to hear.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Again, there is no evidence to support this claim. None.

Sink ran for governor, she has name recognition and national money - of course she's going to win. Ultimately dems will win 5-6 seats and lose about that much as well.

Well PD you are the expert in making bullshit predictions without anything to back it up, so maybe I should just defer to you on this one.

 

[RustyNails]

Yglesias had a great post on this earlier today.

So the coming surge in Doritos purchases is probably already priced into the market.

Dammit. Brownies it is then.

 

[RustyNails]

Surprised this wasn't posted yet. The GOP's been claiming that 5 million people lost their health insurance cause of Obamacare. This, like most GOP statistics is a number that they pulled out of their asses and haven't ever bothered to substantiate. So Henry Waxman in the house commissioned an actual legitimate study to show what the real numbers are. So how far off were the Republican claims? Oh, just by a minicule factor of five hundred:



http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/waxman-challenges-gop-cancellations

Definitely good to hear.

Why is it that the reality and truth is always late to the party? They are never on time.

 

[Wilsongt]

Surprised this wasn't posted yet. The GOP's been claiming that 5 million people lost their health insurance cause of Obamacare. This, like most GOP statistics is a number that they pulled out of their asses and haven't ever bothered to substantiate. So Henry Waxman in the house commissioned an actual legitimate study to show what the real numbers are. So how far off were the Republican claims? Oh, just by a minicule factor of five hundred:



http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/waxman-challenges-gop-cancellations

I expect a GOP debunk and spin in about 15 minutes ago.

 

[Shosai]

Surprised this wasn't posted yet. The GOP's been claiming that 5 million people lost their health insurance cause of Obamacare. This, like most GOP statistics is a number that they pulled out of their asses and haven't ever bothered to substantiate. So Henry Waxman in the house commissioned an actual legitimate study to show what the real numbers are. So how far off were the Republican claims? Oh, just by a minicule factor of five hundred:



http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/waxman-challenges-gop-cancellations

Definitely good to hear.

In fairness, most of the "5 million people lost their health insurance" claims were stammered before the new exemptions were made

 

[Oblivion]

Possibly dumb question, but does the Pope speak English? The latest excuse I'm hearing from the wingnuts about his new found Marxism is that all the stuff he said was a mistranslation and that he loves the free market just fine.

 

[thefro]

Possibly dumb question, but does the Pope speak English? The latest excuse I'm hearing from the wingnuts about his new found Marxism is that all the stuff he said was a mistranslation and that he loves the free market just fine.

Doesn't speak it fluently but understands some English.

The original comments bashing trickle-down economics are from his EVANGELII GAUDIUM which was translated by the Vatican themselves into English. I think his other comments were in interviews to Jesuit magazines that were translated into English.

 

[TacticalFox88]

Florida’s Gov. Rick Scott’s 2014 is not off to a great start. Fewer than one in four residents in his state think he’s doing a good job, and now one of his signature campaign issues has been shot down by a federal judge.

This week a federal judge ruled that Florida’s 2011 law requiring welfare applicants to submit to drug testing was unconstitutional. U.S. District Judge Mary Scriven ruled that the urine tests violate the Fourth Amendment’s protections against unreasonable searches and seizures by the government.

“The court finds there is no set of circumstances under which the warrantless, suspicionless drug testing at issue in this case could be constitutionally applied,” Scriven said in Tuesday’s ruling.

Scott plans to appeal the decision.

“Any illegal drug use in a family is harmful and even abusive to a child. We should have a zero tolerance policy for illegal drug use in families — especially those families who struggle to make ends meet and need welfare assistance to provide for their children,” Scott said in a statement according to the Miami Herald. ”We will continue to fight for Florida children who deserve to live in drug-free homes by appealing this judge’s decision to the U.S. Court of Appeals.

State lawmakers enacted the 2011 law requiring applicants to the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program to take drug tests after Scott campaigned on it during his 2010 election. Applicants who didn’t test positive were reimbursed the $35 cost of the test by the state.

When he pushed the plan, Scott argued that studies showed that people on welfare used drugs at higher rates than those not on welfare. After Florida’s law was implemented, 2.6% of applicants tested positive. According to the National Institute on Drug Abuse, about 8% of the general population over the age of 12 uses illegal drugs in a given month.

Between the reimbursement costs and the low rate of positive results, the program ended up costing the state an extra $45,000, rather than saving money.

Florida is the first and probably last to enact this kind of policy, bar some GOP governor going full retard...again.

Either way, I'll take what I can get.

 

[bananas]

Florida is the first and probably last to enact this kind of policy, bar some GOP governor going full retard...again.

Either way, I'll take what I can get.

Haha.

Fuck you, Rick Scott, you living piece of shit.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Surprised this wasn't posted yet. The GOP's been claiming that 5 million people lost their health insurance cause of Obamacare. This, like most GOP statistics is a number that they pulled out of their asses and haven't ever bothered to substantiate. So Henry Waxman in the house commissioned an actual legitimate study to show what the real numbers are. So how far off were the Republican claims? Oh, just by a minicule factor of five hundred:



http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/waxman-challenges-gop-cancellations

Definitely good to hear.

I wonder how many of those eligible for Medicaid help live in states that haven't expanded the program...

 

[RustyNails]

Wait, Rick Scott's lasting legacy in florida is a pee test? I don't think there's been a worse governor in recent times.

 

[TacticalFox88]

Wait, Rick Scott's lasting legacy in florida is a pee test? I don't think there's been a worse governor in recent times.

IDK...Rick Perry seems to want to give him a run for his money.

 

[Particle Physicist]

Florida is the first and probably last to enact this kind of policy, bar some GOP governor going full retard...again.

Either way, I'll take what I can get.

That policy was all about putting more money in Rick Scott's pocket. Doesn't his wife own the majority of the drug testing labs in the state?

 

[Dr. Pangloss]

Blow what up? They can't shut down the government for a couple years now, and the debt ceiling remains a line leadership will never cross. They play politics with it, demand concessions...then fold.

There is plenty to blow up. The budget agreement just set spending levels and left appropriations to the committees. Why do you think they are still talking about the farm build? What's to stop a HELP committee member from doing an amendment to defund ACA? They will be arguing over appropriations for awhile and ACA repeal is what the GOP will be running on once again. They are not going to just quietly walk away now.

I wonder how many of those eligible for Medicaid help live in states that haven't expanded the program...

And they can begin to wonder why their elected officials have not done so. Medicaid is a federal state partnership and if a certain state wants better service then they need to exercise their state rights and not attack federal officials. That is what the next three years will be about: the difference in health care systems in states like California and states like South Carolina. People will finally get to see what their votes for state representatives mean for them.

 

[AntoneM]

Florida is the first and probably last to enact this kind of policy, bar some GOP governor going full retard...again.

Either way, I'll take what I can get.

So you're really saying that it's inevitable.