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PoliGAF 2013 |OT3| 1,000 Years of Darkness and Nuclear Fallout

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R

ridethepiggy

Banned
IAmRandom31 said:
Ohhh boy. Here we go trying to defend Dems on the economy now too. Heck the deficit is even declining now! Amazing how that number keeps skyrocketing and we were overbudget way back in May.

Laugh all the way to the dollar being non-existent in 10 years. With this mountain of debt we will NEVER get rid of, it is only a matter of time. Especially since all we are able to do these days is blame the other side while continue doing the same things that are incurring all the debt in the first place.

http://www.usfederalbudget.us/federal_budget_detail_fy13bs12014n_G0F0#usgs302

The deficit is dropping is now a good thing? How about no deficit at all? Man I really wish I could live life like the government. Just spend oblivious to how much you actually earn each year.

By 2017 even with a very healthy, growing economy ( which Obamacare could indeed halt a bit ) we are at 21T in debt and still growing it by more then half a TRILLION a year.

I dunno, its laughable at this point to even talk about this economy. Ran by a ton of people who could give a shit.



Exactly my point. Who gives a shit if we owe 140K or so per worker in this country. Who is going to stop us from incurring more debt? Haahahaha.

Laugh all the way to the bank ... until someone stops us at the door and stops letting us in.
Click to expand...

Mind explaining to me what 'we owe140k or so per worker'? I don't exactly understand what that means in real day to day terms.
 
I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
Black Mamba said:
Benghazi is old news. The new news is MemorialGate



Dude is a clown. We're having Memorial shutdown hearings over their own shutdown.

Issa is like that little kid who gets the claw toy and doesn't stop annoying you with it. forever.
Click to expand...

Issa is in a super-safe seat, and is himself the wealthiest member of Congress, so he can do whatever he wants. This means he gets to be the GOP official Scandal Trumper Upper, since he's immune to blowback.

He can float trial balloons and see if they take hold.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Fenderputty said:
I'm surprised pigeon put that much effort in. Though I appreciate it as I enjoyed the read and the article he posted.
Click to expand...

I just like arguing.


No, seriously, my personal take on PoliGAF is that I don't care how wacko a person is as long as they're willing to defend their position and provide sources, which means that you have to do those things to see what they do.

empty vessel said:
I'd consider that a compliment. Pigeon seems to like to play the Very Serious Person card from time to time.
Click to expand...

I'm an American socialist who opposes racism. I think there's a practical limit to how serious I can be.

I've learned a lot about economics from your posts, and you're obviously always willing to defend your position and provide sources. I just get bummed sometimes because when you and Sanky Panky are in the same thread it obliterates all other discussion in that thread.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Honestly starting to believe Obamacare is going to be a failure for enough people to threaten the law's longevity. Just basing that off the site being down with no end in sight, the GAF thread, and the nearly universal negativity I'm hearing from peers (none of whom are conservatives). I know people who greatly benefit from it, but I know far more who have been dropped from their employer plans and can't afford a similar one on the exchange.

The law is largely focused on those who don't have insurance, but the people losing coverage make too much money to qualify for subsidies.
 
R

ridethepiggy

Banned
PhoenixPause said:
Honestly starting to believe Obamacare is going to be a failure for enough people to threaten the law's longevity. Just basing that off the site being down with no end in sight, the GAF thread, and the nearly universal negativity I'm hearing from peers (none of whom are conservatives). I know people who greatly benefit from it, but I know far more who have been dropped from their employer plans and can't afford a similar one on the exchange.

The law is largely focused on those who don't have insurance, but the people losing coverage make too much money to qualify for subsidies.
Click to expand...

Let's give it more than 2.5 weeks before we spell DOOOOOOOOOMED. We're not going to know anything significant about how the law is working out until after 2015 IMO. At that time I suspect many people who don't get coverage and pay the fee will rethink their choice for 2015 open enrollment.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
ridethepiggy said:
Let's give it more than 2.5 weeks before we spell DOOOOOOOOOMED. We're not going to know anything significant about how the law is working out until after 2015 IMO. At that time I suspect many people who don't get coverage and pay the fee will rethink their choice for 2015 open enrollment.
Click to expand...
You're talking to the guy who couldn't even give Elizabeth Warren's campaign a day before declaring Scott Brown's victory a lock.

Funny considering he's said the same thing about Kay Hagan numerous times now.
 
I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
Baraka in the White House said:
ZWJowlOl.jpg
Click to expand...

Other than that title, I don's see anything but a smart political advisor.

After 5 years ob obstruction on even minor appointments, hell yes don't budge an inch and let them hang themselves.

Still the GOPs fault. They could have ended this any time. it's not like they were getting mixed messages that Obama was about to cave.
 
T

TacticalFox88

Banned
PhoenixPause said:
Honestly starting to believe Obamacare is going to be a failure for enough people to threaten the law's longevity. Just basing that off the site being down with no end in sight, the GAF thread, and the nearly universal negativity I'm hearing from peers (none of whom are conservatives). I know people who greatly benefit from it, but I know far more who have been dropped from their employer plans and can't afford a similar one on the exchange.

The law is largely focused on those who don't have insurance, but the people losing coverage make too much money to qualify for subsidies.
Click to expand...
This operates under the assumption that subsequent Democratic Presidents won't try to improve the law. There is ZERO chance that they don't at least try.
 
A

Avon Barksdale

Member
UH-OH! (Carl Lewis voice)

PPP’s newest Kentucky poll finds voters in the state extremely unhappy about the government shutdown, and taking it out on Mitch McConnell. The Republican Senator Minority Leader now trails Alison Lundergan Grimes 45/43 for reelection.

60% of Kentucky voters opposed the shutdown, compared to only 32% who supported it. Those numbers are in line with what we’ve found in other red states- it doesn’t matter if a place went for Obama by 20 points or Romney by 20 points last fall, the shutdown is a huge problem for Republican politicians everywhere.

48% of voters in the state say they’re less likely to support McConnell for reelection next year because he supported the shutdown, compared to only 34% who say they’re now more likely to support him.

The shutdown gives Grimes an opening to win over more moderate Republican voters. Even among GOP partisans 43% in Kentucky opposed the shutdown and Grimes is taking 18% of the Republican vote head to head with McConnell, a strong amount of crossover support for a Democrat in the state.

This race was already looking like a toss up even before the government shutdown, but unhappiness with McConnell over that just further reinforces this being a winnable race for Grimes.
Click to expand...

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/10/grimes-leads-mcconnell-by-2.html
 
empty vessel

empty vessel

Member
pigeon said:
I just get bummed sometimes because when you and Sanky Panky are in the same thread it obliterates all other discussion in that thread.
Click to expand...

I'll just say a couple of things about this.

(1) I think Sanky and I have only gotten into extended exchanges in two or three threads. And in those threads my posts generally consume somewhere between 2 to 3 posts per page at most (team 50 ppp here), and not every page by any means. I think your perceptions of this might be a bit skewed. Maybe that is because you actually read the posts and don't skip over them as some probably do, so they become tiring to you (which is understandable). But for every person who may be bummed by it like you, there are people who are not. Witness: "I'd just like to take a minute and point out that the conversation thus far is one of the reasons I like GAF so much. Reasoned discussion between two (or more!) members that strongly disagree with each other. Neither vantage point falls along the traditional D-R axis, either." Nevertheless, I think in general I show a lot of restraint in those threads. In fact, I never responded to Sanky's last post in the shutdown thread. But I do firmly believe that deep, substantive discussions are far better and more fun to have than a series of trite observations or exclamations.

(2) Repetition may be the only effective means to correct false information given our generally defective human brains. Or, at least, it's the best thing we've got:

We present facts and evidence, and it often does nothing to change people’s minds. In fact, it can make people dig in even more. Humans also engage in motivated reasoning, a tendency to let emotions “set us on a course of thinking that’s highly biased, especially on topics we care a great deal about”.

These two important cognitive effects can have a significant impact on society and debates in the public sphere. ...

So perhaps a single, credible refutation within a news article isn’t likely to convince people to change their views. But other research suggests that a constant flow of these kind of corrections could help combat misinformation. The theory is that the more frequently someone is exposed to information that goes against their incorrect beliefs, the more likely it is that they will change their views.

“It’s possible there is something to be said for persistence,” Reifler said. “At some point the cost of always being wrong or always getting information that runs counter to what you believe is likely to outweigh the cost of having to change your mind about something. We need to figure out what is the magic breaking or tipping point, or what leads people to get to that tipping point. I think we’re just scratching the surface.”

He pointed to a 2010 paper in Political Psychology by David P. Redlawsk and others, “The Affective Tipping Point: Do Motivated Reasoners Ever ‘Get It’?”

The researchers sought to determine if a tipping point exists that could cause voters to abandon motivated reasoning and view facts in a more rational way.

“We show experimental evidence that such an affective tipping point does in fact exist,” they write. “… The existence of a tipping point suggests that voters are not immune to disconfirming information after all, even when initially acting as motivated reasoners.”

This tipping point is far from being identified, but it’s encouraging to think that repeated efforts to debunk misinformation, or to simply to spread the truth, may have an effect.​

http://www.cjr.org/behind_the_news/the_backfire_effect.php

I think quite possibly the greatest threat facing the country right now is deficit and debt hawkishness, so that being the case I will naturally tend to prioritize responding to misconceptions about the monetary system and macroeconomics.
 
S

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
Fox318 said:
Man Obama moves his head left to right alot.
Click to expand...
Head fake. Head fake like you are going to cave on the debt ceiling than embarrass them with a three pointer.

Why do you think he plays so much basketball?

It is unfortunate it took him 5 years to apply it :p
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
I enjoy EV's contributions. Especially so against Sanky. I would however like an Econ OT of some sorts where discussion can happen regardless of the political climate. I don't know how successful an Econ OT would be, but I would be reading for sure.
 
R

rodvik

Member
speculawyer said:
I still don't understand this weird obsession with this person. OK . . . so what if she did any of that (as if 'hostage' wasn't obvious and we all used it).

I guess it is because she is Iranian and thus 'Mooslim' conspiracy theories?
Click to expand...

Bingo. Oh and she is a woman with power, they hate that as well.
 
B

bonercop

Member
beating up on sanky might get old for some, but one of those episodes on this forum is actually what significantly changed my views on fiscal policy. having sanky post really dumb stuff and seeing it get destroyed by people on this site made me start questioning a lot of the assumptions I had about fiscal policy.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
empty vessel said:
I'll just say a couple of things about this.

(1) I think Sanky and I have only gotten into extended exchanges in two or three threads. And in those threads my posts generally consume somewhere between 2 to 3 posts per page at most (team 50 ppp here), and not every page by any means. I think your perceptions of this might be a bit skewed. Maybe that is because you actually read the posts and don't skip over them as some probably do, so they become tiring to you (which is understandable). But for every person who may be bummed by it like you, there are people who are not. Witness: "I'd just like to take a minute and point out that the conversation thus far is one of the reasons I like GAF so much. Reasoned discussion between two (or more!) members that strongly disagree with each other. Neither vantage point falls along the traditional D-R axis, either." Nevertheless, I think in general I show a lot of restraint in those threads. In fact, I never responded to Sanky's last post in the shutdown thread. But I do firmly believe that deep, substantive discussions are far better and more fun to have than a series of trite observations or exclamations.

(2) Repetition may be the only effective means to correct false information given our generally defective human brains. Or, at least, it's the best thing we've got:

We present facts and evidence, and it often does nothing to change people’s minds. In fact, it can make people dig in even more. Humans also engage in motivated reasoning, a tendency to let emotions “set us on a course of thinking that’s highly biased, especially on topics we care a great deal about”.

These two important cognitive effects can have a significant impact on society and debates in the public sphere. ...

So perhaps a single, credible refutation within a news article isn’t likely to convince people to change their views. But other research suggests that a constant flow of these kind of corrections could help combat misinformation. The theory is that the more frequently someone is exposed to information that goes against their incorrect beliefs, the more likely it is that they will change their views.

“It’s possible there is something to be said for persistence,” Reifler said. “At some point the cost of always being wrong or always getting information that runs counter to what you believe is likely to outweigh the cost of having to change your mind about something. We need to figure out what is the magic breaking or tipping point, or what leads people to get to that tipping point. I think we’re just scratching the surface.”

He pointed to a 2010 paper in Political Psychology by David P. Redlawsk and others, “The Affective Tipping Point: Do Motivated Reasoners Ever ‘Get It’?”

The researchers sought to determine if a tipping point exists that could cause voters to abandon motivated reasoning and view facts in a more rational way.

“We show experimental evidence that such an affective tipping point does in fact exist,” they write. “… The existence of a tipping point suggests that voters are not immune to disconfirming information after all, even when initially acting as motivated reasoners.”

This tipping point is far from being identified, but it’s encouraging to think that repeated efforts to debunk misinformation, or to simply to spread the truth, may have an effect.​

http://www.cjr.org/behind_the_news/the_backfire_effect.php

I think quite possibly the greatest threat facing the country right now is deficit and debt hawkishness, so that being the case I will naturally tend to prioritize responding to misconceptions about the monetary system and macroeconomics.
Click to expand...
lt will be great if you can create MMT OT
 
C

ClassyPenguin

Banned
The problem with Sanky is that he's totally conspiratorial. Look what happened with his Syria threads and posts.

An MMT OT would be great. Get all the good information out there.
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
bonercop said:
beating up on sanky might get old for some, but one of those episodes on this forum is actually what significantly changed my views on fiscal policy. having sanky posts really dumb stuff and seeing it get destroyed by people on this site made me start questioning a lot of the assumptions I had about fiscal policy.
Click to expand...

And this is why I appreciate his contributions. People might pass over an Econ OT, but a ton of people were paying attention to the recent debt ceiling crisis.
 
P

Piecake

Member
I like Ezra Klein's strategy for the upcoming budget battle. Instead of demanding revenue increases, the democrats should demand infrastructure, teacher, pre-k, whatever spending. Basically, paint themselves as the party of investment and growth instead of increase taxes.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-16/democrats-should-surrender-on-taxes.html

As for what they have to give up, well, hopefully its very little on entitlement programs. More like a small token bone. The real issue that is driving long term debt is health care costs. We need to solve that to do anything.

All entitlement reform is is a cost shift to individual Americans. That, I think would have very little impact on the deficit because it means less growth and less taxes since Americans will have less discretionary money to buy stuff. They will have to save more for retirement and spend more on health care. Its really quite stupid. All it will lead to is increased inequality and expanding health care costs because we didnt do a damn thing to solve it
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Piecake said:
I like Ezra Klein's strategy for the upcoming budget battle. Instead of demanding revenue increases, the democrats should demand infrastructure, teacher, pre-k, whatever spending. Basically, paint themselves as the party of investment and growth instead of increase taxes.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-16/democrats-should-surrender-on-taxes.html

As for what they have to give up, well, hopefully its very little on entitlement programs. More like a small token bone. The real issue that is driving long term debt is health care costs. We need to solve that to do anything.

All entitlement reform is is a cost shift to individual Americans. That, I think would have very little impact on the deficit because it means less growth and less taxes since Americans will have less discretionary money to buy stuff. They will have to save more for retirement and spend more on health care. Its really quite stupid. All it will lead to is increased inequality and expanding health care costs because we didnt do a damn thing to solve it
Click to expand...

I'd support this. Revenue strikes me as irrelevant right now: the focus should be jobs, not taxes. Then the question becomes: would you trade entitlement cuts for stimulus/sequestration end/pre-k? I wouldn't...

TLDR: nothing will pass unless Obama is willing to cut entitlements without revenue.
 
C

Crisco

Banned
Could basically eliminate the need for revenue and offset entitlement cuts by allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices.
 
X

xnipx

Member
Why do entitlements need to be cut exactly?? Are they wasting money? Fraud? Abuse? What exactly is the motivating factor that entitlement cuts are something necessary for a healthy budget conversation?
 
I

Invisible_Insane

Member
Piecake said:
I like Ezra Klein's strategy for the upcoming budget battle. Instead of demanding revenue increases, the democrats should demand infrastructure, teacher, pre-k, whatever spending. Basically, paint themselves as the party of investment and growth instead of increase taxes.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-16/democrats-should-surrender-on-taxes.html

As for what they have to give up, well, hopefully its very little on entitlement programs. More like a small token bone. The real issue that is driving long term debt is health care costs. We need to solve that to do anything.

All entitlement reform is is a cost shift to individual Americans. That, I think would have very little impact on the deficit because it means less growth and less taxes since Americans will have less discretionary money to buy stuff. They will have to save more for retirement and spend more on health care. Its really quite stupid. All it will lead to is increased inequality and expanding health care costs because we didnt do a damn thing to solve it
Click to expand...
Attempting to expand the number of dimensions of the policy space is a good idea, but I don't see it paying any short-run dividends.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
xnipx said:
Why do entitlements need to be cut exactly?? Are they wasting money? Fraud? Abuse? What exactly is the motivating factor that entitlement cuts are something necessary for a healthy budget conversation?
Click to expand...

Debt. Medicare and SS is going to increase the debt a lot in the future.

Of course, it's based on a misguided belief in how the debt affects our economy. Though, health care costs coming down should be something they focus on (but not just by slashing medicare but on the real aspects of prices).
 
C

cooljeanius

Member
bananas said:
Just got this email:

EBPMhoz.jpg


The race is on.
Click to expand...
Speaking of swing districts, is there any map out there yet of which districts look like they're going to be close yet next election? Even better would be a website that calculates a proportion for each district between how competitive its race is and how far away it is geographically from you, so that you could know where to campaign...
 
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