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[Diablos]

Since we're so close to the elections, I'm going to greatly hedge my Senate predictions by saying

NC and NH are holds
One of Braley or Udall will win
Nunn wins
Orman wins and caucuses with the Democrats

50-50 split

Agreed.
Plus Landrieu best case scenario.

I do think Orman wins no matter what.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Agreed.
Plus Landrieu best case scenario.

I do think Orman wins no matter what.

x) what about me.....

Udall & Braley share the same fate. I give both a win.
Orman wins. Shaheen defeats the carpetbagger Brown ending his political career.
Hagan overperforms polls.

GA and LA go to a runoff. Pryor cant survive the wave. AK is too close to call. Welcome Sen Daines, Capito and Rounds.

 

[Oblivion]

Man, I knew Reagan was a dick, but still:

We were told four years ago that 17 million people went to bed hungry each night. Well that was probably true. They were all on a diet.

 

[DarthWoo]

Having been subjected to Tom Corbett's increasingly desperate commercials (the latest being some stupid horror movie parody) I decided to look around and found this:

African American woman Photoshopped into Pennsylvania governor's campaign picture as he tries to claw back 15-point deficit

Always amusing to see the GOP inclusiveness Photoshop hijinks.

 

[zero shift]

Man, I knew Reagan was a dick, but still:

Link?

 

[Aaron Strife]

I think Pryor and Begich could still win - I'm not expecting it, I just wouldn't count them out yet.

Like I'd say Pryor has about the same chance at winning as Grimes, and Begich is a little better off.

Democrats in both states have been mass registering minorities (African-Americans in Arkansas, Native Alaskans), and Begich's campaign in particular is running a pretty good GOTV program.

Oh and wouldn't you know it, another Alaskan-based pollster with a big lead for Begich:

How curious.

They also have the Democrat leading in the House race which makes this very suspicious, but who knows. Maybe all it took for Young to finally lose was to tell the families of suicide victims that it was their fault

 

[Oblivion]

Link?

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2014/10/watch-reagan-throw-shade-at-hungry-people.html

 

[RustyNails]

Unless Pryor got that Slick Willy bump, I'd say he's toast.

 

[ivysaur12]

hahahaahahahahaahahahaah


haaaaaaaa

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/dc-sports-bog/wp/2014/10/27/ed-gillespie-uses-redskins-name-issue-in-political-ad-against-sen-mark-warner/

The Redskins name issue finally worked its way into political ads Monday night. Specifically, the topic was broached by Republican Ed Gillespie, in his campaign to unseat Virginia Senator Mark Warner.

“Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has a bill to force the Redskins to change their name,” the narrator says in the ad for Gillespie, which ran during the first half of the Redskins-Cowboys Monday Night Football broadcast. “Mark Warner refused to answer if he supports the bill or not. Why won’t Warner fight the anti-Redskins bill? Why won’t he answer the question?”

“I’ll answer the question,” Gillespie then said with a chuckle. “I’ll oppose the anti-Redskins bill. Let’s focus on creating jobs, raising take-home pay and making our nation safer, and let the Redskins handle what to call their team.”

 

[neurosisxeno]

I'd say Pryor has a better chance than Grimes but not by much. He's actually run a solid campaign.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Would be interesting if black voters essentially save the senate for democrats in NC and Arkansas. Apparently the campaign to register black voters in Arkansas has been amazing. I still expect Pryor to lose given the polls but perhaps it'll be close.

Man if republicans fuck this up they'll never hear the end of it. And unlike 2012 it won't be due to insane candidates. This is anecdotal but I noticed Terri Lynn Land's ads are almost never about Michigan issues. Her current ad buy is focused on ISIS, securing the borders, repealing Obamacare, and equal pay for women. Nothing about local issues. It's basically a national GOP campaign divorced from the state. No wonder she's getting destroyed. But apparently Ernst is doing the same in Iowa but it's working, and Cotton is doing it in Arkansas to good effect.

 

[Ecotic]

Perdue is also running an oddly national campaign. Literally every single response in Sunday's debate was linked to Obama or Harry Reid. When asked in a previous debate what he was running on he said 'absolutely a protest vote against Obama and Reid' (paraphrasing).

The guy has a superiority complex like petty local issues and non-worthy opponents are beneath him.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Would be interesting if black voters essentially save the senate for democrats in NC and Arkansas. Apparently the campaign to register black voters in Arkansas has been amazing. I still expect Pryor to lose given the polls but perhaps it'll be close.

Man if republicans fuck this up they'll never hear the end of it. And unlike 2012 it won't be due to insane candidates. This is anecdotal but I noticed Terri Lynn Land's ads are almost never about Michigan issues. Her current ad buy is focused on ISIS, securing the borders, repealing Obamacare, and equal pay for women. Nothing about local issues. It's basically a national GOP campaign divorced from the state. No wonder she's getting destroyed. But apparently Ernst is doing the same in Iowa but it's working, and Cotton is doing it in Arkansas to good effect.

Given everything the DSCC has been saying about their registration/GOTV efforts, I think if Pryor, Landrieu, and Begich lose, it's no fault of theirs.

You could argue that Braley and Udall blew it if they lose though.

 

[neurosisxeno]

Would be interesting if black voters essentially save the senate for democrats in NC and Arkansas. Apparently the campaign to register black voters in Arkansas has been amazing. I still expect Pryor to lose given the polls but perhaps it'll be close.

Man if republicans fuck this up they'll never hear the end of it. And unlike 2012 it won't be due to insane candidates. This is anecdotal but I noticed Terri Lynn Land's ads are almost never about Michigan issues. Her current ad buy is focused on ISIS, securing the borders, repealing Obamacare, and equal pay for women. Nothing about local issues. It's basically a national GOP campaign divorced from the state. No wonder she's getting destroyed. But apparently Ernst is doing the same in Iowa but it's working, and Cotton is doing it in Arkansas to good effect.

Ernst has been on a huge kick the past week promoting doing this the "Iowa way". Cotton is just running a stupid "Pryor is Obama!" campaign and somehow winning. In their last debate I think I saw he mentioned Obama 60+ times including 13 times in 1 response.

 

[Jooney]

It always bothers me when people say to me "Oh, you should pray to God that he lets you find a job" or "It's thanks to God that I have a job now."

No, I either have a job or don't have a job based on my skills compared to other applicants. There's no "divine" intervention about it.

Kinda both insecure and selfish at the same time.

Clearly people are out of work because they are not pious enough. You've got to pray harder than the next guy in this economy.

 

[B-Dubs]

It always bothers me when people say to me "Oh, you should pray to God that he lets you find a job" or "It's thanks to God that I have a job now."

No, I either have a job or don't have a job based on my skills and connections compared to other applicants. There's no "divine" intervention about it.

Kinda both insecure and selfish at the same time.

I corrected that a bit for you. You can have all the skills you want but without the right connections that don't mean shit.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

The australia travel ban led me to this

Tony Abbott is way more OG tea party than pretty much any GOPer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qudBB6haJw

 

[thepotatoman]

I'd say Pryor has a better chance than Grimes but not by much. He's actually run a solid campaign.

I don't know about that. It seems to me he's done the same stumbling around the Obama connection while differentiating himself from the republican even less than Grimes is.

Him and Landreau are both poster childs for how you can't beat a republican at being a republican, and that's especially true when you have a voting record that proves you're not a republican.

That might have worked if republicans voted in a nutjob during the primaries, but really only Hagan was so lucky to get a freebie like that (And Braley too, I guess, but who knows what is happening there).

The australia travel ban led me to this

Tony Abbott is way more OG tea party than pretty much any GOPer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qudBB6haJw

Yeah, it's pretty much like that all over the world right now. I'm no expert in other country's politics, but it seems to me in a lot of ways our left and right really aren't that different from the left and rights of other nations right now, the only difference is that other countries got themselves more left leaning programs in place before the right wing revolution hit them, so the right has a bit more stuff they have to pretend to want to protect.

 

[HylianTom]

Gender dystopia update: the 5th Circuit of Appeals' website is listing the week of January 5, 2015 as the time frame for when they will be hearing oral arguments for the Texas & Louisiana cases.

So they say they'll expedite, but then they drag their feet all the way until next year. Shocker.

If the 6th Circuit rules in favor of same-sex marriage advocates and SCOTUS denies appeal, this would likely push back any major SCOTUS involvement in the 5th Circuit's cases until 2016, right? Fun timing.. right around the GOP's primary season.

 

[ivysaur12]

Gender dystopia update: the 5th Circuit of Appeals' website is listing the week of January 5, 2015 as the time frame for when they will be hearing oral arguments for the Texas & Louisiana cases.

So they say they'll expedite, but then they drag their feet all the way until next year. Shocker.

If the 6th Circuit rules in favor of same-sex marriage advocates and SCOTUS denies appeal, this would likely push back any major SCOTUS involvement in the 5th Circuit's cases until 2016, right? Fun timing.. right around the GOP's primary season.

My guess was that Sutton waited to see what the SCOTUS would do with the appeals that it had from the 10th, 4th, and 7th. He's looking specifically at 2 issues:

1 -- If Baker is still relevant.
2 -- If gay marriage is better left to play in the "democratic process."

It's pretty clear that the doctrinal developments since Baker have left is completely irrelevant, and, if the SCOTUS really felt that it was still binding precedent, they would've taken these 7 cases that went in the face of Baker. They didn't, because, duh.

The second is more interesting and plays more towards Sutton's conservative leanings. That being said, a lot has changed since the oral arguments at the 6th Circuit. The amount of states with marriage equality has more than doubled and without a real peep from anyone. It's not an election issue. No one's really talking about it besides the occasional angry family member on Facebook. If Sutton is truly worried about the dignity of gay people winning their struggle through democratic means as a more noble path, that doesn't really seem to be a nuance people seem to care about. (Also, who the fuck cares if these bans are clearly discriminatory, but that's a digression).

My guess is that Sutton was leaning towards upholding this bans but either has changed his mind or isn't really sure what to do just yet. Given the developments recently, I would think they'd strike down the gay marriage bans.

We'll have to see what happens at the 5th Circuit, but the odds there aren't great. Which is fine, because I'd actually prefer to see a Circuit split (after an affirmative ruling of equality from the 6th) to put this to bed for good.

Spoiler

And if the issue has to spill into the 2016 election and trip up so called "moderate" Republicans, fine.

 

[benjipwns]

I've been thinking, do you think in this information age, that Obama could've did something similar to what FDR did when he went on the radio to explain how banks works to the american people back in '33?

Clear, concise, factual, no blaming of the GOP, just clear to get the message out.

He gives a weekly address. Reagan started it on Saturdays, Bush Admin started providing it as a podcast, Obama Admin now also does it visually on YouTube.

There's just one problem. FDR didn't have much conflicting programming.

Yeah, it's pretty much like that all over the world right now. I'm no expert in other country's politics, but it seems to me in a lot of ways our left and right really aren't that different from the left and rights of other nations right now, the only difference is that other countries got themselves more left leaning programs in place before the right wing revolution hit them, so the right has a bit more stuff they have to pretend to want to protect.

Massive stereotyping and generalizing about multiple varied and distinct nations below:

It starts farther back. The US was vastly more liberal than any other country for over a century and never suffered the shocks of the World Wars. America's rapidly moved closer to other countries politics in the wake than the other way around.

The victories of the "right" around the globe recently are if connected in anyway mainly in part due to:
1. "The left" being in power during the economic downturn. (And general anti-incumbency.)
2. Globalization. (Mainly as related to Immigration.)

The "left" piggy-backed on war socialism to get their "social democracy" that staved off Communism, the "right" had its come back when the second generation "left" was both bureaucratically incompetent and "going too far." "The left" had gotten its mojo back with Iraq and used that to springboard itself back as what seemed like a legitimate political force, but that's collapsed. And since the "right" parties are all merely reactionaries to the "left" when the "left" has no ideas the "right" has none either.

The result in countries with more PR than here you're seeing Greens and parties like the UKIP, Sweden Democrats, Podemos, etc. pick up on popular dislike of the long standing "left" and "right" parties with their "Third-Fourth-Fifth Ways." The question with those is whether they're legitimate new replacement parties or merely temporary Perot-like displacements mucking up the "proper order" for everybody.

Sadly almost nobody wants liberalism, but what can you do?

 

[benjipwns]

Holy shit, I have 50+ Brazilian friends on Facebook and theyre all in meltdown mode right now.

So many salty tears.







Edit: Surprisingly good translations by BING(tm)

lol jesus christ, I forgot how many valid parties in Brazil have combinations of like two or more of "Social", "Socialist", "Democratic", "Republican" and "Labour" in their name.

Going to move there and start the "Social Labour Democratic Socialist Republican Workers Communist Renewal Party of Progressive Republican Brazil." It'll be in favor of bringing back Spain ruling over it as a colony.

Spoiler

Because fuck Portugal, and that ol’ South America way.

EDIT: Oh, and abolishing Toronto.

 

[neurosisxeno]

This might hurt him.

“I just don’t believe that it’s one party or the other. I think it has to be both sides coming together,” Nunn said. “I think that we do have a very clear contrast in terms of how we see breaking through that dysfunction. I don’t think it’s about prosecuting the other party; I think it’s about problem-solving.”

“I disagree; I think it is,” Perdue answered. “When you have a failed presidency, you have to prosecute it," he said.

"We deserve better than we’re getting right now," he added. “When we look at the direction of this country, we’ve got to make a hard right-hand turn. The direction of this country is failing.”

 

[slit]

So I guess it's looking increasingly likely that the GOP will take the senate. I think in some ways if that happens it might actually work in Dems favor for 2016. As much as the deck is stacked against the Dems this year, it really stacked against the GOP in 2016. If the GOP has control of both houses, they're probably going to take more of the blame when nothing continues to get done. They can't compromise without angering their constituents. In either case nothing gets done anyway so maybe the public will begin to see why that truly is.

 

[Diablos]

Democrats will hold the Senate. I wouldn't be surprised if polls are undersampling minority turnout in light of recent registration efforts. I'm not trying to "unskew" anything because I'm not in denial, but I do think these races are so close by default that we won't see the full picture one way or another until election night.

 

[neurosisxeno]

Democrats will hold the Senate. I wouldn't be surprised if polls are undersampling minority turnout in light of recent registration efforts. I'm not trying to "unskew" anything because I'm not in denial, but I do think these races are so close by default that we won't see the full picture one way or another until election night.

They have consistently failed at polling Colorado. I wouldn't be surprised if that carried over to places such as Georgia and Kentucky as well.

 

[Diablos]

Kentucky is a lost cause no matter what, namely due to the Grimes campaign throwing up and shitting itself more than an Ebola patient.

 

[Bel Marduk]

I think Nunn has the momentum and the early vote is looking good enough she might actually just clear 50 on election day. We'll see.

I'm not optimistic about most of the races, but I really think Nunn's got this. She seems to be running a very competent campaign.. I believe outsourcing is the perfect issue for Democrats to use to appeal to right-leaning electorates. She's the right candidate and Perdue is the worst sort of candidate for a state with the highest unemployment rate in the country.

 

[jamesinclair]

If Democrats keep the Senate.....thanks Obama!

If Democrats lost the senate....thanks, Obama.

 

[gcubed]

One of the best parts of being 50/50 or 51/49 will be the utter dismay of the GOP

 

[NYCmetsfan]

https://www.aei.org/publication/peter-thiel-gold-standard/

WTF is this dude smoking.

I can't make heads or tails of the justification for the gold standard in this. Its like Matthew McConaughey got high and started writing about monetary policy

Where we’ve had progress in the world of bits but not in the world of atoms, and this world of bits, we’ve had progress in computers, Internet, mobile Internet. Technology just means information technology. It’s all about bits, but the world of atoms, space travel, energy like nuclear power, biotech, new medical devices, that’s been much slower, and there’s been much less progress in those areas in the last forty years. …

One’s been regulated, the other has not, but we’ve had this sort of dualistic world where the virtual world of bits has been growing very fast, but the real world of atoms has been kind of stagnant. And I think there’s a strange counterpoint where the same thing happened with our currency, where the real value of money became separate from the virtual in August of ’71 when we went off the gold standard. And so, you know, whatever you think of the gold standard, it had the virtue of connecting the real with the virtual.

So I think there’s nothing wrong with cyberspace or computers or anything, but it’s when it becomes separated from the real that it’s bad. And these successful companies have actually been the ones that somehow connected it. Facebook succeeded because it was about real people having a presence on the Internet. There were all these other social networking sites people had, but they were all about fictional people. One of my friends started a company in 1997, seven years before Facebook, called SocialNet. And they had all these ideas, and you could be like a cat, and I’d be a dog on the Internet, and we’d have this virtual reality, and we would just not be ourselves. That didn’t work because reality always works better than any fake version of it.

 

[benjipwns]

Probably because it's not a justification of the gold standard, it's him and Beck talking about the disconnect between things that are seemingly tangible and things that are seemingly virtual and how that drives anti-science and anti-technology views. And Thiel includes it as an example, where our modern money is really just bits, whereas gold is a physical object you can hold. I have no idea why Pethokoutkis (a NRO regular) took that of all things out of the interview with Beck since I'm pretty sure Thiel doesn't support a gold standard and could probably write a much better explanation if he did.

Peter: Yeah, well there’s definitely some sense in which I can’t…there are no perspectives on left of center in the U.S., anywhere left of center, mildly, far left of center, that I think are anything but conventional at this point. I definitely agree that it feels that way. You know, I think, to take sort of a nonpolitical cut at this, I think one of the…you know, the countercultural in the 60s was the hippies. You know, we landed on the moon in July of 1969. Woodstock started three weeks later, and with the benefit of hindsight, that’s when progress ended, and the hippies took over the country.

Today the counterculture is to believe in science and technology. You know, our society, the dominant culture doesn’t like science. It doesn’t like technology. You just look at the science fiction movies that come out of Hollywood—Terminator, Matrix, Avatar, Elysium. I watched the Gravity movie the other day. It’s like you would never want to go into outer space. You would just want to be back on some muddy island. And so I think we’re in a world where actually believing that a better future is possible that you can have agency and work towards a better future, that is actually radically countercultural.

Glenn: Could I offer this to that, that it’s not that we’re anti-science. I think you make a good point in the movies, but I don’t think we’re necessarily anti-science or anti-technology as much as we are becoming more and more fatigued on virtual everything. We want something real. Nothing in our society is real. Our money isn’t real. Our word doesn’t matter anymore. Our communication isn’t real. Nothing is real.

Peter: Well, you know, I’ve often said there’s been this technological slowdown for the last 40 years, and there is probably some strange connection—

Glenn: Explain that, because I don’t think that makes—

Peter: Where we’ve had progress in the world of bits but not in the world of atoms, and this world of bits, we’ve had progress in computers, Internet, mobile Internet. Technology just means information technology. It’s all about bits, but the world of atoms, space travel, energy like nuclear power, biotech, new medical devices, that’s been much slower, and there’s been much less progress in those areas in the last forty years.

Glenn: Because of regulation?

Peter: One’s been regulated, the other has not, but we’ve had this sort of dualistic world where the virtual world of bits has been growing very fast, but the real world of atoms has been kind of stagnant. And I think there’s a strange counterpoint where the same thing happened with our currency, where the real value of money became separate from the virtual in August of ’71 when we went off the gold standard. And so, you know, whatever you think of the gold standard, it had the virtue of connecting the real with the virtual.

Glenn: Meaning something, right.

Peter: They were somehow connected, and so when you separate the two, then you have problems. So I think there’s nothing wrong with cyberspace or computers or anything, but it’s when it becomes separated from the real that it’s bad. And these successful companies have actually been the ones that somehow connected it. Facebook succeeded because it was about real people having a presence on the Internet. There were all these other social networking sites people had, but they were all about fictional people. One of my friends started a company in 1997, seven years before Facebook, called SocialNet. And they had all these ideas, and you could be like a cat, and I’d be a dog on the Internet, and we’d have this virtual reality, and we would just not be ourselves. That didn’t work because reality always works better than any fake version of it.

 

[theprodigy]

Democrats will hold the Senate. I wouldn't be surprised if polls are undersampling minority turnout in light of recent registration efforts. I'm not trying to "unskew" anything because I'm not in denial, but I do think these races are so close by default that we won't see the full picture one way or another until election night.

This isn't the Diablos I know!

 

[Aaron Strife]

One of the best parts of being 50/50 or 51/49 will be the utter dismay of the GOP

Yeah, like if Democrats do any better than that there will be more of a sense of confusion to get over first. Being so close to a majority and knowing that Republicans realistically won't have a chance at reclaiming it until 2018 at the earliest will be the ultimate schadenfreude.

Final Loras poll of Iowa: Braley 45-44

DSCC launching multi-million dollar ad buy in Arkansas. Like I said - not expecting Pryor to win at this point, but he could still pull it out.

 

[HylianTom]

Hillary and Mary are coming to town this Saturday. Free public rally. I can't miss this.

It's been over a decade since my last campaign rally (Howard Dean, Austin, 2003). Hopefully the candidates will visit here plenty over the next two years.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Jefferson Co Clerk predicts 65% voter turnout. (2010: 52.5% 2012: 64.5%). Appears good for Grimes who's strong in Louisville. #KySen

hopium

 

[Coriolanus]

“I’ll answer the question,” Gillespie then said with a chuckle. “I’ll oppose the anti-Redskins bill. Let’s focus on creating jobs, raising take-home pay and making our nation safer, and let the Redskins handle what to call their team.”

No idea why he went with two standard slogans, then decided to use a different one to say "fuck no, i wont raise wages".

 

[NYCmetsfan]

lol

 

[zero shift]

lol

The only things that surprise me are how liberal The Lord of the Rings fans are and how moderate Atlas Shrugged readers are.

 

[benjipwns]

Got another one of those voter report cards today, shame they only went back two general elections since there were two more I skipped before that:

 

[B-Dubs]

The only things that surprise me are how liberal The Lord of the Rings fans are and how moderate Atlas Shrugged readers are.

They are about even on the thing, Hobbit fans are super liberal though.

 

[benjipwns]

Though at least these guys are apparently helping pay for it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3mw49mk_x0

EDIT: lol just noticed they misspelled Washington at the end of the video

 

[East Lake]

https://www.aei.org/publication/peter-thiel-gold-standard/

WTF is this dude smoking.

I can't make heads or tails of the justification for the gold standard in this. Its like Matthew McConaughey got high and started writing about monetary policy

Facebook connected the real with the virtual and they were successful, and gold connects the real with the "virtual" concept of money so it will be successful.

A fancy way to forget that software has low r&d costs compared to nuclear fusion technology.

 

[B-Dubs]

Though at least these guys are apparently helping pay for it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3mw49mk_x0

EDIT: lol just noticed they misspelled Washington at the end of the video

I gotta admit I laughed. That was good.

 

[Retro]

lol

"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs. " - John Rogers

 

[benjipwns]

16 of the 19 mailers I've gotten in the last two weeks have been from the Democrats. One from a local Republican running unopposed. And two of those VOTER REPORT CARDS I posted above.

I wonder how the Republicans know I'm a lost cause but the Democrats are still hoping I'll vote for them.

Meanwhile I have to learn about this awesome dude all by myself: http://www.jamesweeksii.com/

That's two, count 'em two, neckbeards on my ballot this year:
http://www.jimfulner.com/

I might bother to vote!

Spoiler

#GamersGate #NachoShield #NotAllAnarchists

 

[Tamanon]

I'm shocked how many people seem to actually get Gatsby's message.

LOL at Heaven is for Real.

 

[pigeon]

16 of the 19 mailers I've gotten in the last two weeks have been from the Democrats. One from a local Republican running unopposed. And two of those VOTER REPORT CARDS I posted above.

The report cards are almost certainly Democratic GOTV operations. Telling people that their neighbors will be informed whether or not they voted makes people vote more.

 

[benjipwns]

The report cards are almost certainly Democratic GOTV operations. Telling people that their neighbors will be informed whether or not they voted makes people vote more.

Yeah, AFSCME and League of Conservation Voters made that pretty clear, but they aren't about candidates so I set them aside with ballot measures. (Of which I've gotten none, and of which nobody in the state seems to be able to say what Yes/No mean on either of them since they're about the same topic.)

 

[RustyNails]

1 more week left till we see PD's new avatar.