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[benjipwns]

Please tell me that's an actual e-mail.

Guess the first sentence of this one from last week was true after all.

Wait, was that New Rules segment on Bill Maher yesterday really accurate about Kansas dem candidate (Paul Davis)? He's losing now because of a visit to a strip club back when he was in his mid-twenties? There's gotta be more to the story. I'd like to think that no way people can be so easily distracted, but then again, it's Kansas

Spoiler

sorry, metamorphingman.

.

When polling suddenly swung against Bush in 2000 after the drunk driving reveal in the last week, a number of political scientists have theorized that it's more of an effect of swing voters looking for any reason to swing away from a non-incumbent candidate they're leery of. The hard part is figuring out what story in someones past will actually contribute this effect and not backfire.

They work best when they run counter to the narrative the candidate is presenting, notably with the Bush example he was spending much of the campaign talking about bringing honor back into the White House.

IMost third parties simply try and nominate someone famous for their presidential ticket and hope the cult of personality alone will raise awareness. The problem is that people didn't vote for Ralph Nader (for example) because they supported the Green Party, they voted for him because he was the lessest (?) of three evils.

It's because of the costs to participating in the system that third parties focus on the Presidency.

Ballot status is usually determined by the % of vote you got for the top ballot position, if you don't get it automatically, you have to petition, which costs a lot of money.

Third party/independent candidates also have problems fundraising because the two parties DO remember that sort of thing, thus why self-financiers (or people with former power (Weicker/King/Chafee/Crist/etc.) or some other quirk like Jesse Ventura) do the best.

You can't run any kind of national coordinated third party campaign at the House and Senate level because the costs are staggering compared to the returns. For President and Governors, a minimal campaign will often be enough to retain ballot status.

You often don't get media coverage, rarely get invited to debates/functions/etc., so you don't get all the media and state-supported campaign funding for candidate awareness.

And then lastly you run into the "throwing your vote away" wall of idiocy. The massive advantage Orman and Walker have is that the major party candidate ditched. To go back a year to Virginia, if for whatever reason the Cooch or the Bagman had dropped out, Sarvis would have seen his poll numbers become immediately competitive with whoever was the other major candidate left.

Alaska, Vermont, NH and Maine tend to be the exceptions to all of this as major independent bids are much easier to mount. (And there's something to the culture.) Plus they and CT like to have four way races more often than just three-way for some reason.

 

[GaimeGuy]

Augh.

http://thinkprogress.org/election/2014/10/23/3583548/minnesota-ad-eric-dean/

The ads this midterm have been REALLY dirty here in MN.

I don't remember any election being so negative.

 

[benjipwns]

New York interestingly is a fertile ground for a major independent candidate IF you could get the Working Families and Conservative Party (and related down ballot parties) to nominate candidates strong enough who weren't on ballot as D and R's respectively. (Primarily the former.)

James Buckley got elected to the U.S. Senate as a Goldwater Conservative in NY because the Republican candidate won the Liberal Party nomination which effectively killed both those ballot lines but still got them enough votes to strip from the Democratic line.

Bloomberg helped himself in both 2001 and 2005 by snagging the Independence line (which was coming off the boost by Tom Golisanao) along with the Republican line. (And in 2005 by also getting the Liberal line.)

Though this was probably more feasible a decade ago. It would have been interesting to see Treachout getting the WFP ballot line this year. Just as a hypothetical if you had Cuomo (D), Astorino (R), Treachout (WFP), Hawkins (G) and Bloomberg (I) both Astorino and Bloomberg's chances would increase by quite a bit compared to if Cuomo had the ballot lines he does now which make him unbeatable.

 

[NeoXChaos]

NBC Marist Poll

CO: 46-45 Gardner
IA: 49-46 Ernst
KS: 45-44 Orman
AR: 45-43 Cotton
NC: 43-43 Hagan
SD: 43-29 Rounds

Udall leads Gardner 48-44 in Hispanics? LOL

CBS/YouGov

Peters +8
Shaheen +5
Hagan +3
Udall +1
Braley/Ernst tie
Perdue +3
Cassidy +4
Roberts +4
Sullivan +4
Cotton +5
McConnell +6
Rounds +13

 

[Aaron Strife]

Early voting is looking good in North Carolina. Registered Democrats are at 91% of their total early votes cast in 2010. Republicans are at 67% by comparison.

Kind of wish my bet with PD was only about Hagan, oh well haha

Black turnout in Louisiana is through the roof. Currently a higher portion of the electorate than the actual black population in the state.

 

[Oblivion]

Hillary Clinton: Businesses Don’t Create Jobs

That's like the most non-corporatist thing she's ever said in her life.

 

[Wilsongt]

Gasp! Fox News lied about nonexistant voter fraud! I am SHOCKED!!

 

[ivysaur12]

I just need this election to be over for my anxiety.

 

[Retro]

I just need this election to be over for my anxiety.

But as soon as this one ends, the next one begins, and the stakes are much higher for 2016.

 

[NeoXChaos]

But as soon as this one ends, the next one begins, and the stakes are much higher for 2016.

Clinton vs Bush: The dynasty redux of 1992.

 

[Wilsongt]

But as soon as this one ends, the next one begins, and the stakes are much higher for 2016.

If the GOP wins the senAte time to avoid all news and go into a drunken stupor for two years.

 

[Ecotic]

Hillary Clinton: Businesses Don’t Create Jobs

That's like the most non-corporatist thing she's ever said in her life.

I don't even get what she was trying to say. I guess she was going for the "It's the American middle class wealth that creates consumer demand that creates jobs" route, but that's the kind of situation you really need to elaborate while you're saying it, rather than clarifying later after the soundbite has already been used against you.

 

[ivysaur12]

But as soon as this one ends, the next one begins, and the stakes are much higher for 2016.

staaaaaaaahp

I'm sort of glad I didn't go into elections like I almost did. The anxiety is real from the sidelines.

 

[Wilsongt]

staaaaaaaahp

I'm sort of glad I didn't go into elections like I almost did. The anxiety is real from the sidelines.

And sweeps week isn't as nerve wrecking?

 

[jamesinclair]

Holy shit, I have 50+ Brazilian friends on Facebook and theyre all in meltdown mode right now.

So many salty tears.

Se o Brasil adotasse o sistema eleitoral usado nos EUA, queria só ver se a mafia conseguiria ganhar.....Ridiculo, o povo que sustenta este país não consegue nem eleger o próprio presidente!
If the Brazil adopt the electoral system used in the us, I just wanted to see if the mafia could win .....Ridiculous, the people that sustains this country can't even elect a President!

Espero que estejam felizes com a escolha de vocês, pois se eu ver um que votou na Dilma reclamar que no governo só tem ladrão vou rir da sua cara.
I hope you're happy with your choice, because if I see one that voted for Dilma complain that the Government has only thief will laugh in your face.

Stain está feliz. Vamos continuar financiando obras em países comunistas.
Stain is happy. We will continue funding works in Communist countries.

Edit: Surprisingly good translations by BING(tm)

 

[NYCmetsfan]

new GOP strategy?


WSHH videos

http://www.worldstarhiphop.com/videos/video.php?v=wshh1720BKYanAm5Zf5v

 

[Jack Remington]

But as soon as this one ends, the next one begins, and the stakes are much higher for 2016.

There's very little to fear in 2016, IMO.

 

[B-Dubs]

new GOP strategy?


WSHH videos

http://www.worldstarhiphop.com/videos/video.php?v=wshh1720BKYanAm5Zf5v

If Scott Walker was serious about going for the WSHH demo then he would have filmed that ad vertically, leaving two really big blacks bars on the right and left of the video.

 

[ivysaur12]

And sweeps week isn't as nerve wrecking?

I'm a glutton for punishment.

 

[Avon Barksdale]

new GOP strategy?


WSHH videos

http://www.worldstarhiphop.com/videos/video.php?v=wshh1720BKYanAm5Zf5v

It seems Citizens for Urban Justice is a GOP-backed group.

http://urbanmilwaukee.com/2014/08/19/murphys-law-the-remarkable-clout-of-sheriff-clarke/

But an anonymously funded group called Citizens for Urban Justice, probably with Republican ties, (Republican Craig Peterson of Zigman, Joseph, Stephenson Inc made the ad buy) ran some slippery ads.

 

[B-Dubs]

It seems Citizens for Urban Justice is a GOP-backed group.

http://urbanmilwaukee.com/2014/08/19/murphys-law-the-remarkable-clout-of-sheriff-clarke/

Shocking, I for one am shocked. It even sounds like a GOP backed group.

 

[Retro]

There's very little to fear in 2016, IMO.

I was thinking more along the lines of how election coverage runs 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year from every form of media. We get like a .5 second pause when the upcoming election ends in which to catch our breath before everyone starts focusing on the next one.

 

[Chichikov]

I don't even get what she was trying to say. I guess she was going for the "It's the American middle class wealth that creates consumer demand that creates jobs" route, but that's the kind of situation you really need to elaborate while you're saying it, rather than clarifying later after the soundbite has already been used against you.

She right, and she is indeed talking about demand side economics (which used to be called "economics" once upon a time, but then we had an oil shortage in the 70s which totally proved wrong for some reason) and it's about time the Democrats started taking a strong stance on that, it's not smart to engage Republican in a "job creators" narrative, a narrative that was invented by the way because it's hard to win elections by pandering to rich people.
Her approach is not only true, but good politics.

 

[Aaron Strife]

I was thinking more along the lines of how election coverage runs 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year from every form of media. We get like a .5 second pause when the upcoming election ends in which to catch our breath before everyone starts focusing on the next one.

Worst part is it's a presidential election so people were already talking about it in like 2009

 

[NeoXChaos]

Worst part is it's a presidential election so people were already talking about it in like 2009

Yup. 2016 begins Nov 5th.

 

[RustyNails]

2016 begins when Hildabeast says it does.

 

[speculawyer]

Worst part is it's a presidential election so people were already talking about it in like 2009

Props to the Rachel Maddow Show for having a policy of NOT talking about 2016.

Endless talks about politics instead of policy is toxic. Nothing gets done, it is just an endless fight over the next elections.

 

[neurosisxeno]

Clinton vs Bush: The dynasty redux of 1992.

I would not be shocked if Rand Paul snags the nomination.

 

[B-Dubs]

I would not be shocked if Rand Paul snags the nomination.

I would be. He's not the right brand of crazy for the base and if he does clench it then he'd get demolished in the general.

 

[NeoXChaos]

I would not be shocked if Rand Paul snags the nomination.

He wont. The R establishment will annihilate him.

 

[thepotatoman]

I would be. He's not the right brand of crazy for the base and if he does clench it then he'd get demolished in the general.

Who's better though?

I still think Rand Paul will get it. He'd appeal more to moderates than a Cruz or a Huckabee, and doesn't seem to have the same baggage Christie or Bush would have. Honestly, he's the most Romney-like candidate they have right now.

Scott Walker's the one wildcard, but he has a race to win and charges to be cleared of first.

He wont. The R establishment will annihilate him.

I think he's more R establishment than you think.

 

[neurosisxeno]

I would be. He's not the right brand of crazy for the base and if he does clench it then he'd get demolished in the general.

Pandering to the "crazy...base" caused Mitt Romney to convincingly lose an election. I honestly don't think a Republican out there can win against Hillary who's certain to get the Dem's nomination. Rand Paul has toned down his crazy from the first couple years he spent in the Senate, and has recently attacked even the Republicans, at least for their views on foreign policy. He seems to realize catering to that every shrinking fringe won't win a general election.

He wont. The R establishment will annihilate him.

Except none of them stand a chance. Who's going to really hold up on the national stage? Chris Christie? He's a joke who will be seen as "that asshole from Jersey: if he acts like his usual self. Ted Cruz? Clearly a bit insane and out of touch with the general population--plus an easy shot that will be taken is his just recently denounced Canadian citizenship. Scott Walker? Between the lawsuits, over reaches, recalls, and overall bad publicity (and policy) that won't happen. The Republican field for 2016 is in shambles, and even if Mitt Romney came back and did run again, he would get crushed by Hillary.

 

[B-Dubs]

Pandering to the "crazy...base" caused Mitt Romney to convincingly lose an election. I honestly don't think a Republican out there can win against Hillary who's certain to get the Dem's nomination. Rand Paul has toned down his crazy from the first couple years he spent in the Senate, and has recently attacked even the Republicans, at least for their views on foreign policy. He seems to realize catering to that every shrinking fringe won't win a general election.



Except none of them stand a chance. Who's going to really hold up on the national stage? Chris Christie? He's a joke who will be seen as "that asshole from Jersey: if he acts like his usual self. Ted Cruz? Clearly a bit insane and out of touch with the general population--plus an easy shot that will be taken is his just recently denounced Canadian citizenship. Scott Walker? Between the lawsuits, over reaches, recalls, and overall bad publicity (and policy) that won't happen. The Republican field for 2016 is in shambles, and even if Mitt Romney came back and did run again, he would get crushed by Hillary.

Rand Paul's got a long way to go before he'd make a respectable candidate. Sure he'll attack the GOP when it's politically convenient, but more often than not he goes with the herd.

 

[kess]

Paul would sure take the GOP to weird places. I mean, how do you possibly balance a ticket like that? Chris Christie?

 

[East Lake]

Rand Paul would be great.

 

[speculawyer]

Rand Paul would be great.

He'll never win. And the fact that he went on that paranoid conspiracy broadcast shows how loony he is.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Paul would sure take the GOP to weird places. I mean, how do you possibly balance a ticket like that? Chris Christie?

It sure would be a heavy lift.

 

[Avon Barksdale]

It sure would be a heavy lift.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CdVTCDdEwI

 

[NeoXChaos]

I cant believe you guys dont think Jeb Bush is a threat. The Republicans have won with a Bush & Nixon on a presidential ticket going back to 52. Jeb Bush will have a floor of 45-47%. It will be 2000 all over again if he gets the nomination.

These polls will mean nothing two years from now.

 

[AndyD]

I cant believe you guys dont think Jeb Bush is a threat. The Republicans have won with a Bush & Nixon on a presidential ticket going back to 52. Jeb Bush will have a floor of 45-47%. It will be 2000 all over again if he gets the nomination.

These polls will mean nothing two years from now.

I don't think people are ready for another Bush in the white house. Too soon. If we had gone through a long period of "boom" a la late 90s dot com improvements, then people would be in a more receptive mood, but so far, I am not seeing it.

 

[RustyNails]

Jeb is married to a latina. His campaign will be sniped to death by conservatives.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

"@morningmoneyben: Incredibly strange when people at profit-seeking companies, hired by entrepreneurs argue that companies don't create jobs."

Politicos chief economics reporter.

This is what happens when dems ceed economics to the rightwing. We need presidents and senators informing, if only the base that these ideas are real and that budgets the government run are different. Demand creates supply.

Its a long process and isn't going to have immediate gains but the GOP and business started this and infiltrating schools and think tanks in the 60s and 40 years later they're the "responsible and realistic ones".

 

[TacticalFox88]

I've been thinking, do you think in this information age, that Obama could've did something similar to what FDR did when he went on the radio to explain how banks works to the american people back in '33?

Clear, concise, factual, no blaming of the GOP, just clear to get the message out.

 

[zero shift]

Holy shit, I have 50+ Brazilian friends on Facebook and theyre all in meltdown mode right now.

So many salty tears.

Yeah fuck those people. Brazil is undergoing one of the most radical changes in poverty and income distribution in the world without sacrificing precious GDP. Corruption is down, school funding is up. The country made the right choice.

I've been thinking, do you think in this information age, that Obama could've did something similar to what FDR did when he went on the radio to explain how banks works to the american people back in '33?

Clear, concise, factual, no blaming of the GOP, just clear to get the message out.

The problem is that, unlike the 30s, people won't just ignore it and find the near endless supply of looney media giving the REAL truth out.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Yeah fuck those people. Brazil is undergoing one of the most radical changes in poverty and income distribution in the world without sacrificing precious GDP. Corruption is down, school funding is up. The country made the right choice.

The levels of inequality (geni coefficient) is pretty stable.

I doubt the election would have radically changed the course brazil finds itself on. its a well positioned country that finally seems to have a pretty stable political system

it seems to be matching other latin american countries not doing anything special.
http://data.worldbank.org/country/brazil

 

[NYCmetsfan]

I've been thinking, do you think in this information age, that Obama could've did something similar to what FDR did when he went on the radio to explain how banks works to the american people back in '33?

Clear, concise, factual, no blaming of the GOP, just clear to get the message out.

not to as wide of an audience but he could have better communicated to dems and challenged orthodoxy which eventually can lead to people overtime accepting that.

The major problem is in the universities and public schools where the economics taught its written by rightwing economists and concerns about debt are put above jobs and employment, not to mention labor.

There's also no discussing of why we should care about certain numbers going up or down

 

[NYCmetsfan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g1WGNSh4oY

lol the GOP is so scummy.

Hillary Clinton: Businesses Don’t Create Jobs

That's like the most non-corporatist thing she's ever said in her life.

This is a product of the base pushing her. Its how politics works.

I've shat on it and an still don't like a lot of aspects but this is occupy and warren's movement that is pushing the Ds to take the positions. Its awesome news. It rings true for the voters we need. This is why I've always disliked people really focusing on politicians past actions.You can get any politician to do a 180, its a good thing. It means that the respond to pressure and elections aren't he only thing that matter.

 

[zero shift]

The levels of inequality (geni coefficient) is pretty stable.

I doubt the election would have radically changed the course brazil finds itself on. its a well positioned country that finally seems to have a pretty stable political system

it seems to be matching other latin american countries not doing anything special.
http://data.worldbank.org/country/brazil

I wouldn't call this "pretty stable".

The party took power right around when the second big drop occurred.

Compared to other countries

It is only surpassed by Argentina (who had a major economic crisis), Venezuela (lol), and Peru (developing country).

It certainly is surpassing other Latin American countries in poverty and educational investment (keep in mind the data I posted had Brazil cutoff by four years or so). Keep in mind that Brazil is one of the most developed countries in Latin America. It's much easier to bring down poverty in an undeveloped country like Peru than it is in a developed country like Brazil. Similarly how it's much easier to bring down poverty in Thailand as oppose to America. The fact that Brazil still surpasses almost every country on that measure is astonishing.

 

[Wilsongt]

One more week of the Dems controlling the Senate. Then in Jan the GOP gets in and the Keystone Pipeline is passed, the ACA is repealed, Medicare is privatized, fracking happens in all 50 states, gay marriage gets a constitutional ban, Voter IDs all around, and abortion is made illegal.

Enjoy 2015 - 2017, folks!

 

[NYCmetsfan]

One more week of the Dems controlling the Senate. Then in Jan the GOP gets in and the Keystone Pipeline is passed, the ACA is repealed, Medicare is privatized, fracking happens in all 50 states, gay marriage gets a constitutional ban, Voter IDs all around, and abortion is made illegal.

Enjoy 2015 - 2017, folks!

lame duck dude