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PoliGAF 2014 |OT2| We need to be more like Disney World
- Thread starter Aaron Strife
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I think that was the point. One way to sit out of the midterms, am I right?
Do one on when we overthrew Iran's government, put in a dictator and it came back to bite us in the ass.
Oh man, if he really does cut loose it'll be something to see.
More truth bombs:
http://www.theatlantic.com/internat...s-israel-relations-is-officially-here/382031/
Word.
edit: God dammit why is New Hampshire so close.
http://www.theatlantic.com/internat...s-israel-relations-is-officially-here/382031/
Word.
edit: God dammit why is New Hampshire so close.
I half expected one of those quotes to end with "That man has no dick."
God, it looks like lame-duck gives-no-fucks-at-all Obama is going to be amazing.
The Suez war of 1956 is an often forgotten chapter in history that got everything - colonialism, nationalism, pan arabism, cold war drama, secret conspiracies, the whole nine yards.
Surely you can find an unusual angle to approach it.
WayneMorse
Banned
This would be a good idea, lots of material to write about, but I would be more interested in writing about Nasser and his ideological mixture of Arab nationalism and socialism, and his idealistic but noble goal of a United Arab Republic.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Guy Cecil (exec. director of the DSCC) was saying Landrieu is in the high 40s and has a shot at clearing 50, but that's a big hump to get over. There are now more registered African-Americans in Louisiana than there were before Katrina and the early vote is looking good.
Hoping Nunn can beat 50, I think she has the momentum. Perdue flubbed up at the best possible moment.
Come on. He has to say that. He is a D operative. How do we know he is not spinning this?
Romney revisionist history for D's this time?
Regardless, I hope he is right. Any good news is good news I suppose. Election Day cant and go soon enough. Too bad I'm stuck with it for another month with that dumb runoff. Sigh "I am Bill Cassidy and I approve this message because I am with you and I am fighting for you " cough against obama cough.
The scary thing is I think it could very well come down to these two races. AK is a lost cause, as well as KY, AR and sadly CO unless the latino vote for Udall is being severely undersampled (which as I said before is entirely possible). SD was never really in play, NM and (I hope) NC and NH should stay blue. But a lot of things could go wrong -- any way you look at it these two races could end up deciding who controls the Senate, which means we won't know until next year. That fucking sucks.
I really cannot understand why Obama's approval rating is so low. His economic record in particular is looking stellar (in light of where we were before especially) right now. If people are voting GOP because of ISIS and Ebola they're incredibly stupid.
I really cannot understand why Obama's approval rating is so low. His economic record in particular is looking stellar (in light of where we were before especially) right now. If people are voting GOP because of ISIS and Ebola they're incredibly stupid.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Obviously I'd expect him to be bullish, but the black registration rates and early vote are factual and positive for the Democrats.
In fact early voting numbers look decent to good for Democrats in just about every state with the exception of Nevada, which doesn't have a Senate race or competitive gubernatorial race so whatever.
Well I hope so. I sick of the ads out here. Cassidy is so boring and I cant believe Landrieu is going to possibly lose to him. We get him and Vitter next year possibly as Governor when Jindal has done enough damage to this state and NOW he wants to become President? and have 2 newbie members crushing our seniority to bits in the senate?
Oh boy! l x(
Well if that what you want residents of Louisiana for the next 2-6 years. Have at it. Just dont come crying when Vitter refuses to expand medicaid but closes another hospital or cuts education for the nth time or when Bill Cassidy votes against minimum wage but shuts down the government.
This is basically, I think, what we are looking at ASSUMING Kay and Shaheen don't lose.
This is our best case...I just hope the night ends quickly and we don't go through the agony of waiting until next year.
I still think Dems can pull it off but I had forgotten about the severity of a potential runoff and what it does to turnout for Dems (historically, anyway).
This is our best case...I just hope the night ends quickly and we don't go through the agony of waiting until next year.
I still think Dems can pull it off but I had forgotten about the severity of a potential runoff and what it does to turnout for Dems (historically, anyway).
Squirrel Killer
Member
I just got back from a meeting after which while talking with someone, they mentioned the Iowa GOP sexual harassment suit. I am definitely out of the political loop this cycle and hadn't heard about it, so I looked it up and read the complaint.
First off, calling this "Ernst' sexual harassment lawsuit" is flat out ludicrous and a complete distortion of the situation. The complaint mentions Ernst once as having been a witness to someone else's unspecified inappropriate comments and behavior. Ernst obviously denies being a witness, but that's sort of to be expected in her position.
Secondly, I'm actually kind of stunned how... appropriate the GOP's initial response was to the 12/30/2012 (Sunday) incident. On 1/2/2013, very likely the next business day, the victim was informed that the harasser's comments were unacceptable, the comments would be dealt with, that the leadership recognized the lack of formal harassment training or policies, and the victim was asked for further incidents. On 1/7/2013, someone from the GOP leadership met with the harasser and the harasser and "came back to the office upset," possibly indicating that he had just gotten his ass chewed out. On 1/10/2013, a staff meeting directly addressed the need for a safe work environment. Then it seems they drop the ball, although a revised policy was put before the GOP and D leadership in March, it appears no further movement was taken on it during the relevant time frame of this lawsuit.
The complaint mentions remarks made regarding the victim's clothing at several points. The examples given are vague so they could definitely be remarks of a harassing nature. However, as a House intern at the Iowa Capitol, my brand new blue blazer and freshly pressed khakis were verboten in the Senate. When my representative took me to a meeting with a senator, we had to take some bullshit Byzantine route through I think a kitchen to bypass the 50 foot walk across the Senate floor due to my shabby attire. Given that the victim had already been there 4 years, I suspect she already knew the stringent clothing expectations and that the remarks were of a harassing nature (despite the nature of the claims.)
After the 1/10/2013 staff meeting (so really, after the 12/30/2012 incident,) there are no obviously harassing behaviors mentioned (the complaint mentions another clothing remark, which may or may not be harassing, and some advice given to improve her work that the complaint paints in a harassing light but I doubt would be found to harassment on their own.) Instead, beginning on 1/24/2014 (two weeks after the staff meeting, over three weeks after the victim discussed and the leadership agreed that the behavior was harassing,) a new addition to the leadership staff was critical of the victim's work. While the leadership's improvement suggestions were vague to non-existent, if the victim's 5/17/2013 memo after her final warning to improve is representative (it's probably not,) I can kind of see their point. No apparent action has been taken against the other victim of sexual harassment.
I actually have a small bit of personal experience with some of the personalities in the case (and some impressions I need to keep to myself due to HR issues.) I'm a little surprised about the claim that Ernst and Sandra Greiner saw harassment and did nothing, not so much for Joni, but 20 years ago, you did not mess with Sandy (although at the time, I was only an intern, maybe leadership acted differently.) The Senator from DeWitt, that's a completely accurate portrayal of that arrogant egoist. As for Ed... he's a condescending, patronizing asshole, but he's also an efficient asshole you want on your side. I can personally attest that his grammar nazi tenancies are not unique to the victim. I would guess that any appropriate steps he took to combat the hostile workplace were taken to protect himself and the party, rather than any altruistic empathy for the victim.
Finally, the victim's lawyer is Michael Carroll. Hrm... that name sounds familiar... oh yeah, it's the guy the R governor fired earlier this year. No ulterior motives with the timing there.
TL;DR: This is not Ernst's sexual harassment lawsuit from any objective perspective.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I'd say our best case scenario (that's actually plausible) is having like 52 seats or so on election night. That would be if Shaheen, Hagan, Braley, Udall, Orman, Begich, and Nunn all win and Louisiana goes to a runoff. Landrieu would probably win in a runoff then, big oil would want to keep her as chairwoman and Republicans wouldn't be able to nationalize the race as easily if the Democrats have a majority anyway.This is basically, I think, what we are looking at ASSUMING Kay and Shaheen don't lose.
This is our best case...I just hope the night ends quickly and we don't go through the agony of waiting until next year.
I still think Dems can pull it off but I had forgotten about the severity of a potential runoff and what it does to turnout for Dems (historically, anyway).
You could add Arkansas and Kentucky to that which would allow Democrats to break even, but that's just getting greedy. But we are seeing presidential level turnout in blue counties... hm. Guess we'll see.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
538 has a 0.7% chance democrats break even or gain a seat. See, there's still a chance.
eBay Huckster
Member
...in a hilarious twist, this is actually a higher chance than Wang's model gives them.
Longer tails!
zero shift
Banned
I can see why "The Lord of the Rings" and "The Hobbit" appeal to the left. It focuses on a fellowship rather than a single individual. In many adventure stories there is often a single hero to focus on (Conan series for example), but in Tolkien's universe each character plays there part. Everybody depends on each other and works to accomplish their goals. Hell the entire series is a metaphor for "greed is bad" as "The Hobbit" shows how looking for treasure can turn out bad and "The Lord of the Rings" focuses on how power corrupts.
JesseEwiak
Member
If we somehow hold LA & AR, win GA & KY, but lose CO, I'll just laugh at the absurdity of it all.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
With less than a week to go, it's probably a good time to revisit Vox's compilation of senate predictions.
Ds keeping in the fight mostly thanks to GA, with CO falling like a rock. I'm just worried that those forecasters don't really have a great model in place to deal with runoffs, making GA more significant for Ds than it maybe really is.
Also, don't know what Washington Post is thinking. Their Kansas prediction is especially weird, with really weird wording about how they calculate it in the event that Orman is the deciding seat.
Ds keeping in the fight mostly thanks to GA, with CO falling like a rock. I'm just worried that those forecasters don't really have a great model in place to deal with runoffs, making GA more significant for Ds than it maybe really is.
Also, don't know what Washington Post is thinking. Their Kansas prediction is especially weird, with really weird wording about how they calculate it in the event that Orman is the deciding seat.
I'm already laughing at the fact that it's no longer completely implausible for McConnell to lose but Republicans to win the senate, now that CO and IA are somehow losable. All those "I would lose the senate to see McConnell lose" wishes which once seemed impossible may end up being true. He's certainly within the margins where polls have been wrong before.
I think it's mostly because hippies latched into its environmental themes in the 60s and the book has became associated with them and therefore liberals in general (though I feel the mainstream success of the movies are changing that).
As for focusing on how power corrupts, I don't know, it's talking about how this one specific poorly defined magical power corrupts by magical, poorly explained and non-relatable means.
And sheeeit, big part of the story is installing an absolute monarch on his birthright throne, I mean, I know he's "good"
At least insofar as it can ever be applied to anything in our own lives, I mean, if the lesson here is that magical ring that makes invisible and also do some other things that we can't really explain, but trust us it's like big and important and stuff, corrupt absolutely, then yeah, I can see that.
neurosisxeno
Member
I'm pretty sure he was onto something. Atlas Shrugged is loved by Conservatives because it advocates individualism and personal responsibility which are core beliefs of their movement.
speculawyer
Member
Fox News used to think that Obama's high gas prices were bad for the economy.
Fox News now thinks Obama's low gas prices are bad for the economy.
FFS.
Fox News now thinks Obama's low gas prices are bad for the economy.
FFS.
Hobbestetrician
Member
Nothing tops this piece of concern trolling from The Week
Obama's greatest failure: The rapidly falling deficit
That article is spot on, hardly a trolling of any kind. The title might be a tad sensationalist, but that's about it, I agree with it completely on the substance.
neurosisxeno
Member
Yea I see nothing wrong with it. The Stimulus package we got was a farcry from what we needed, and Obama making almost no effort to get more really hurt the economy through most of his first term.
And worse, you know that Democrats are going to parade this as some sort of achievement, furthering the narrative that we must at all times and at all cost lower the deficit.
This is Clinton all over again.
That's pretty much my attitude. I don't think voters here quite realize how powerful the Energy Chair position is. Mary really should've done a better job explaining this.
And as far as Senate predictions go, at this point I'm torn between 48 & 49 seats for Dems+Inds. The GOP will win enough to barely take the Senate: just enough to stop confirmations and serve as a great villain for the 2016 Dems - but not enough to make all of their rabid base's unrealistic legislative dreams come true. Should be fun to watch!
----
And I see that Ralph Nader is calling Hillary "a menace to the United States."
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/oct/29/ralph-nader-dubs-hillary-clinton-a-menace-to-the-u/
While I sympathize with the man on these and several other big issues, he can go {censored material} with the rustiest of chainsaws.
Shit, I just got a black eye from all that cognitive dissonance.
See? This is the kind of thing we might be enjoying over the next two years..
Conservatives ready to give leaders hell
And here's your FreeRepublic reaction thread, to give a glimpse into what their base is expecting:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3220824/posts
I particularly like the chicken pic..
Conservatives ready to give leaders hell
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/10/conservatives-ready-to-torment-gop-leaders-112270.html?hp=t2_3
And here's your FreeRepublic reaction thread, to give a glimpse into what their base is expecting:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3220824/posts
I particularly like the chicken pic..
Coriolanus
Banned
I don't particularly disagree with him on this issue. He and I are of one mind on many, many issues.
Still incredibly bitter about 2000, and can't say much about him that wouldn't get me banned.
Coriolanus
Banned
Well, that's the thing. Don't blame others for your failure. Especially when in 2004 Dems tried to go with fucking Kerry.
I don't in any way give him total blame, but pushing the whole "there's no difference" line when he damn well knew better was dishonest and scummy. He's right down there with Scalia in my book.
That's all I can really say. I'm biting my tongue here to the point where I taste blood.
Aaron Strife
Banned
You'd think a member of the Green Party would at the very least be able to tolerate having someone like Al Gore as president.
It's hard to imagine how different things would be if Gore won. Well, that is if SCOTUS said he won.
It's hard to imagine how different things would be if Gore won. Well, that is if SCOTUS said he won.
Bel Marduk
Banned
AK is not a lost cause. Begich has overwhelming support of Alaska natives who are far-flung in villages across the state. He has quite a few more campaign offices around and the state is incredibly hard to poll.
A Democrat running in Alaska is always facing an uphill battle but its not a lost cause.
I can't stand this nonsense. The liberal African Americans are not the ones voting against their interests.
"We don't want welfare!" Well what do you think happens if you take away the minimum wage?
Edit: After going to their website, I've concluded that 99% of the commenters are white and paid shills.
Hillary isn't a corporatist or militarist, she's a pragmatist. Almost all politicians are.
Coriolanus
Banned
Correct me if i'm wrong, but in the US, being a pragmatist involves being a corporatist and a militarist. Thus, potato potatoe.
Aaron Strife
Banned
The share of black voters in Louisiana's early vote keeps increasing. Black voters now make up 33% of the early vote.
At this point in 2010 it was 21%.
We're getting close to 2008 levels in some states.
At this point in 2010 it was 21%.
We're getting close to 2008 levels in some states.
And New Orleans' population has increased nicely over the past 6 years.
The 2008 census had us around 312k.
The 2013 census had us around 379k.
The city went >80% for Obama in 2012. Lots of lefties living here. Dad used to roll his eyes at this, but now he just laughs enthusiastically about all of the "liberal do-gooders" that have moved into the city from around the country.
Whoever put early voting signs all over the city's neutral grounds did an incredible job. They are everywhere. I've been wondering in the back of my mind how much New Orleans' (re)growth might help Mary.
thezerofire
Banned
can I just get some links please? that's all I want out of this
RustyNails
Member
His 2nd term has been off to a terrible start. We had VA scandal, secret service scandals and NSA scandal which all destroyed his image even though he had little to do with them. NSA in particular inflamed the liberals. Make any thread about Obama and you get a snarky post or two about him spying on your grandma every few posts. Iraq getting overrun, and Syria red line fiasco also affected his ratings. Economy is still not peachy when you analyze it by wages and hours worked.
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