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PoliGAF 2014 |OT2| We need to be more like Disney World

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A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Since we're so close to the elections, I'm going to greatly hedge my Senate predictions by saying

NC and NH are holds
One of Braley or Udall will win
Nunn wins
Orman wins and caucuses with the Democrats

50-50 split
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
APKmetsfan said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g1WGNSh4oY

lol the GOP is so scummy.
Click to expand...

Wait, I'm confused. Are they trying to use Haugh as a spoiler in NC by using an insultingly patronizing ad? That's kinda crazy.

Aaron Strife said:
Since we're so close to the elections, I'm going to greatly hedge my Senate predictions by saying

NC and NH are holds
One of Braley or Udall will win
Nunn wins
Orman wins and caucuses with the Democrats

50-50 split
Click to expand...

Did you change your mind about Nunn losing the runoff in the event it's the deciding race? Or do you just think she's going to avoid the runoff?
 
W

WayneMorse

Banned
As long as the Dems hold the majority we'll be fine, we'll get more seats in 2016 and then we can filibuster reform our way to a functional congress.

To be honest I would much rather prefer this congress over a Republican controlled one. For example, Reid and Pelosi are leading a quiet mutiny against the White House over TPP, while McConnell and the GOP caucus support giving Obama fast track authority.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
NeoXChaos said:
I cant believe you guys dont think Jeb Bush is a threat. The Republicans have won with a Bush & Nixon on a presidential ticket going back to 52.
Click to expand...

...what, did 1960 and 1992 just retroactively not happen?

Aaron Strife said:
Since we're so close to the elections, I'm going to greatly hedge my Senate predictions by saying

NC and NH are holds
One of Braley or Udall will win
Nunn wins
Orman wins and caucuses with the Democrats

50-50 split
Click to expand...

Right now I have it at 48+3-49 with basically the same predictions but with both Braley and Udall hanging on.

We'll see whose hedges look better.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
I think Nunn has the momentum and the early vote is looking good enough she might actually just clear 50 on election day. We'll see.

eBay Huckster said:
Right now I have it at 48+3-49 with basically the same predictions but with both Braley and Udall hanging on.

We'll see whose hedges look better.
Click to expand...
hedge_1431836c.jpg


I'm only saying one of Udall or Braley will win because the polling averages have both of them down. Certainly there have been past elections where the averages have gotten the winner wrong, I'll just play it safe and assume it'll only be one this time (as opposed to 2 each in 2010 and 2012). Iowa's early vote is looking good, Colorado has the same problems as usual.

I recently sent Diablos a PM making the same prediction as you, 51-49 Dem Senate. On the other hand I do think Landrieu will win if Democrats already have a majority so there is that.
 
A

Averon

Member
Conservative has really been hyping a possible GOP senate take over for a while now. How will they react if they fall just short?
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
G

Giant Panda

Member
zero shift said:
I wouldn't call this "pretty stable".The party took power right around when the second big drop occurred.

Compared to other countries It is only surpassed by Argentina (who had a major economic crisis), Venezuela (lol), and Peru (developing country).

It certainly is surpassing other Latin American countries in poverty and educational investment (keep in mind the data I posted had Brazil cutoff by four years or so). Keep in mind that Brazil is one of the most developed countries in Latin America. It's much easier to bring down poverty in an undeveloped country like Peru than it is in a developed country like Brazil. Similarly how it's much easier to bring down poverty in Thailand as oppose to America. The fact that Brazil still surpasses almost every country on that measure is astonishing.
Click to expand...

So just because Dilma's party was good in the past, makes her the best candidate now? That seems like pretty faulty reasoning, especially as Brazil is heading for recession.
 
V

VanMardigan

has calmed down a bit.
Someone asked me and I couldn't really respond intelligently: what are the practical differences between a slim democrat majority and a slim republican majority in the senate?
 
T

thcsquad

Member
VanMardigan said:
Someone asked me and I couldn't really respond intelligently: what are the practical differences between a slim democrat majority and a slim republican majority in the senate?
Click to expand...

Probably not much, filibuster goes both ways. Maybe judicial appointments will be harder?
 
J

jamesinclair

Banned
VanMardigan said:
Someone asked me and I couldn't really respond intelligently: what are the practical differences between a slim democrat majority and a slim republican majority in the senate?
Click to expand...

Appointments need 51 democrats

The senate leader decides what goes to vote and what doesnt see the light of day

"Oh, this has the support pf 58? TABLED"

Also, they can vote to repeal obamacare 57 times
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
VanMardigan said:
Someone asked me and I couldn't really respond intelligently: what are the practical differences between a slim democrat majority and a slim republican majority in the senate?
Click to expand...
Judicial appointments would be the biggie. The Senate Majority Leader can block any nominations from going through.

Legislation as well, but we all know not much of that is going to get passed under Reid or McConnell.
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
Giant Panda said:
So just because Dilma's party was good in the past, makes her the best candidate now? That seems like pretty faulty reasoning, especially as Brazil is heading for recession.
Click to expand...

Consider what "lets boot the kinda-sorta-maybe good guy that is currently doing a crap job" did to Australia.

Yes, Neves is Abbott. Good fucking Riddance to that sorta noise.

Why do you think Brazil is headed for a recession, btw?
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
I wouldn't really care about the Dems losing the senate if it weren't for the fact that a Democratic senate can still (without the help of the House) do something actually useful: confirming judges.

It doesn't get talked about much, but I'd argue that Obama packing the federal judiciary with liberal nominees will be his most significant legacy (yes, even moreso than Obamacare. Or at the very least, on par). The irony of Republicans attempting to stymie Obama all the time, and forcing Reid to nuke the filibuster and thus accelerating a massive shift to the left in the judiciary will never cease to be hilarious.

APKmetsfan said:
new GOP strategy?


WSHH videos

http://www.worldstarhiphop.com/videos/video.php?v=wshh1720BKYanAm5Zf5v
Click to expand...

Wait, so this dude who's speaking seems to acknowledge in the beginning that Walker hasn't done shit to help black people, but thinks that we shouldn't vote for the Democrat because they might be lying about wanting to help black people, so...we should just stick with Walker because at least he's honest about not wanting to help black people?

Good god, it's like those shitty libertarian arguments about how both sides are evil but make no effort to hide that they'll be picking the Republican regardless.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
It always bothers me when people say to me "Oh, you should pray to God that he lets you find a job" or "It's thanks to God that I have a job now."

No, I either have a job or don't have a job based on my skills compared to other applicants. There's no "divine" intervention about it.

Kinda both insecure and selfish at the same time.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
Those damn Demoncrats and their voter fraud.

ATTN: APK, it's ThinkProgress, so please ignore.

http://thinkprogress.org/election/2...r-registrations-could-sway-georgia-elections/

ATLANTA, GEORGIA—A court could decide any day now whether tens of thousands of Georgia voters can cast a ballot this November, a choice that could sway the outcome of the state’s neck-and-neck races for Governor and Senator.

Earlier this year, organizers fanned out across nearly every one of Georgia’s 159 counties and registered nearly 90 thousand people who have never voted in their lives, most of them people of color, many of them under 25 years old. But when the groups checked back in late August, comparing their registration database to the state’s public one, they noticed about 50,000 of the registrations had vanished, nearly all of them belonging to people of color in the Democratic-leaning regions around Atlanta, Savannah and Columbus.

Georgia’s state minority leader Stacy Abrams (D), whose group The New Georgia Project led the massive registration drive in March and April, told ThinkProgress what happened next was “deeply disturbing.”

“We asked the Secretary of State to meet with us. We wanted to understand if we were doing something wrong, or if there was another database we didn’t have access to. But he refused to meet with us,” she said.

Joined by the Lawyers Committee for Civil Rights Under Law and the Georgia NAACP, the organizers asked twice more for a meeting about the missing registrations. When early voting began across the state and they still had not heard from the Secretary of State, the New Georgia Project took them to court. In arguments on Friday, Francys Johnson, president of the Georgia NAACP, asked Fulton County Superior Court Judge Christopher Brasher to compel the state to process every valid registration.
Click to expand...

Amidst this chaos, the Secretary of State publicly accused the New Georgia Project in September of submitting fraudulent registration forms. A subsequent investigation found just 25 confirmed forgeries out of more than 85,000 forms—a fraud rate of about 3/100ths of 1 percent.

Abrams explained to ThinkProgress that all other third party registration groups must submit every form they get no matter if it’s incomplete or forged. She characterized the subpoena and accusations as an attempt to intimidate and discredit her efforts.

“If you accuse people of fraud, the public will believe there is fraud, just like if you yell ‘fire,’ people run,” she said. “The problem is, if there is no fire, you’re causing damage, and if there is no fraud, you’ve damaged reputations.”

Dr. Francys Johnson agreed, but ThinkProgress the accusations have not worked as the state may have intended.

“If they thought it would have a chilling effect on voter registration efforts, they were mistaken. It has emboldened our efforts. It has awakened the consciousness of people that the right to vote is still precariously endangered.”

The legal battle comes at a pivotal time for the state of Georgia. The state’s African-American, Latino, Asian and Native American populations have grown extensively, as has their share of the electorate. The growth is dramatic enough that many political analysts predict the state’s political identity could swing from red to blue over the next few years.

At the same time these changes were taking place, the state enacted measures courts have found to disproportionately impact voters of color. In 2006, Georgia enacted a “strict” voter ID law. Five years later the state cut the number of days of early voting. In 2012, the Secretary of State purged thousands of voters from the rolls a few months before the presidential election. Just last month, the same Secretary of State lamented before an audience of Republican activists that the registration of more voters of color would mean a win for Democrats.

Abrams told ThinkProgress she launched the registration effort to make sure the officials in local, state and national office actually represented the people of the state.

“We are facing a new Georgia: demographically, politically, economically, and socially,” she said. “We should all be engaged in a process to bring them into the civic conversation. It is dangerous, no matter your party, to have large swaths of your population disengaged and disaffected.”
Click to expand...

ACORN is at it again.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Weiland: DSCC ads are hurting my campaign

SIOUX FALLS, S.D. — South Dakota Democratic Senate nominee Rick Weiland (WHY-land) says ads by national Democrats are too negative and actually designed to boost an independent in the race.

Rick Weiland says he wants Senate Democrats’ campaign arm to run positive ads. Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee ads have attacked the Republican nominee, former Gov. Mike Rounds.

Weiland says those ads have hurt his chances. He says they’ve helped Larry Pressler, a former Republican senator running as an independent.

Despite a rocky relationship, the DSCC has endorsed Weiland and the committee’s executive director said last week that the money it’s investing in the race is designed to boost Weiland, not Pressler.

Rounds led comfortably in two new polls this week.
Click to expand...
That's exactly what I was worried about.

Pressler fell apart once he got the slightest bit of attention, with stories of him having Washington DC as his primary residence and him sitting on the board of investors of Sky Capital as the company was committing fraud. He also didn't have near the structure and financing needed to actually run a real campaign.

If the DSCC was trying to secretly back the independent, thinking him more likely to win, they clearly picked the wrong horse in that race.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Oblivion said:
I wouldn't really care about the Dems losing the senate if it weren't for the fact that a Democratic senate can still (without the help of the House) do something actually useful: confirming judges.

It doesn't get talked about much, but I'd argue that Obama packing the federal judiciary with liberal nominees will be his most significant legacy (yes, even moreso than Obamacare. Or at the very least, on par). The irony of Republicans attempting to stymie Obama all the time, and forcing Reid to nuke the filibuster and thus accelerating a massive shift to the left in the judiciary will never cease to be hilarious.
Click to expand...

You're on my favorite issue here. Obama will be gone soon, and the judges he's put in place (now approximately 1/3rd of ALL federal judges) will still be hanging around issuing decisions. Decades.

There's no doubt in my mind that this will eventually be recognized as his biggest legacy.

And imagine Hillary (or pretty much any other Dem) tilting the courts even further and further. It could take decades for judicial conservatives to ever dig out of this kind of hole, if ever. The social conservative movement could essentially be killed in November 2016. The thought gives me chills.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
motherofgod.jpg

Bet Matheson would regret retiring.

Btw they nailed UT-4 two years ago. Called it a tie and Matheson only eked it out by .3%.

I'm not saying anything about Mormons but I'll just point out that Mia Love is a black woman running in a heavily Mormon district/state. No, I'm totally saying something about Mormons.
Click to expand...

Yea...I dunno what's going on. Is she too extreme for the district? I assumed she'd roll to victory.
 
C

Crisco

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
motherofgod.jpg

Bet Matheson would regret retiring.

Btw they nailed UT-4 two years ago. Called it a tie and Matheson only eked it out by .3%.

I'm not saying anything about Mormons but I'll just point out that Mia Love is a black woman running in a heavily Mormon district/state. No, I'm totally saying something about Mormons.
Click to expand...

Oh she'll lose, I live in this district and it's definitely not all crazy mormons. It's the highest per household income district in Utah, lots of university degrees, not crazy religious bible thumpers. All the people that work in research park and the tech companies around the valley live here.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
I'm really starting to dislike Cuomo:

"I disagree with the CDC. And at the end of the day I'm the governor of the state of New York." -@NYGovCuomo
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He's gonna make the worst VP ever. :(
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Oblivion said:
I'm really starting to dislike Cuomo:



He's gonna make the worst VP ever. :(
Click to expand...

He's running for reelection, what do you expect from a guy like him? He'll use any opportunity to gain some support.

Also don't joke like that, Diamond Joe is gonna be VP forever.
 
W

WayneMorse

Banned
http://www.pressherald.com/2014/10/25/poll-shows-lepage-has-a-new-lead/

Republican Gov. Paul LePage has opened a lead over Democratic U.S. Rep. Mike Michaud in the closing weeks of the gubernatorial campaign, according to a Maine Sunday Telegram/Portland Press Herald poll. The findings mark a significant shift from previous polls showing both candidates running in a virtual dead heat.

LePage leads Michaud 45 percent to 35 percent, with independent Eliot Cutler at 16 percent and 4 percent undecided, according to the poll of 639 likely voters conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The landline and cellphone poll has a 3.8 percent margin of error and was conducted from Oct. 15 to 21, a period that coincided with three televised debates, leaving questions about whether the forums affected the results.
Click to expand...

lol
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
The media wants a Bush & Clinton matchup.
Bush 41 & 43 want Jeb to run

Poligaf: Does America want a 3rd Bush term? Is America ready for a 3rd Bush?
Will America if it comes to pass elect a 3rd Bush over the 1st woman who happens to be a Clinton?
 
A

Avon Barksdale

Member
NeoXChaos said:
The media wants a Bush & Clinton matchup.
Bush 41 & 43 want Jeb to run

Poligaf: Does America want a 3rd Bush term? Is America ready for a 3rd Bush?
Will America if it comes to pass elect a 3rd Bush over the 1st woman who happens to be a Clinton?
Click to expand...

The media wanted Rudy Guiliani vs. Hillary Clinton but that didn't happen either.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
NeoXChaos said:
The media wants a Bush & Clinton matchup.
Bush 41 & 43 want Jeb to run

Poligaf: Does America want a 3rd Bush term? Is America ready for a 3rd Bush?
Will America if it comes to pass elect a 3rd Bush over the 1st woman who happens to be a Clinton?
Click to expand...
4th Bush term. 6th if you include HW as VP.
 
N

neurosisxeno

Member
NeoXChaos said:
Poligaf: Does America want a 3rd Bush term? Is America ready for a 3rd Bush?
Will America if it comes to pass elect a 3rd Bush over the 1st woman who happens to be a Clinton?
Click to expand...

Well lets consider that situation a proxy election (since it basically would be), you're voting for George W and George H.W. or Bill motherfucking Clinton. You have to consider the associations people will make when you consider the two. GWB has a very negative legacy, Bill Clinton on the other hand is one of the most fondly remembered presidents of the past century. I see no situation in which Jeb Bush beats--or even competes--with Hillary Clinton.
 
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