Support NeoGAF

[RustyNails]

Yeah I'm gonna fess up and say I got my predictions wrong which completely hinged on an electorate that was able to pull a win out of Braley's moist, moist ass. Such an electorate would have pulled Hagan and Udall out.

But I like pretty much everyone got totally blindsided by the amount of bloodlust the conservative electorate had for dems this year.

 

[Black Mamba]

Yeah I'm gonna fess up and say I got my predictions wrong which completely hinged on an electorate that was able to pull a win out of Braley's moist, moist ass. Such an electorate would have pulled Hagan and Udall out.

But I like pretty much everyone got totally blindsided by the amount of bloodlust the conservative electorate had for dems this year.

The bloodlust was lower than in 2010. It was the Democrat apathy that lost.

As I keep repeating, whites under 45 years old didn't vote and that cost the Democrats.

 

[ivysaur12]

Any word on Sanders?

Nothing yet. I'm starting to get worried tbh.

 

[bonercop]

The last two minutes of this are hilarious. Highly recommended for butthurt/despairing democrats.

 

[Cat]

Nothing yet. I'm starting to get worried tbh.

He posted on his Twitter a link to what he'd already said before:
http://www.sanders.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/what-will-bernie-sanders-do

 

[RustyNails]

The bloodlust was lower than in 2010. It was the Democrat apathy that lost.

As I keep repeating, whites under 45 years old didn't vote and that cost the Democrats.

But white males who are democratic/liberal leaning usually have slightly higher turnout than college crowd in midterms, which doesn't make it any better.

 

[ivysaur12]

He posted on his Twitter a link to what he'd already said before:
http://www.sanders.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/what-will-bernie-sanders-do

(I know, I was joking)

 

[thepotatoman]

I feel like the 13% turnout levels among young people deserves a separate thread; that sort of shit is fucking disgraceful...

(I am the 13% btw)

It's 13% percent of the overall vote share, not 13% of young people overall.

New York Times compiles a pretty good history of the House vote exit polls to maybe get a sense of how things trend election to election, bouncing between 12% and 19% midterm to presidential election.

What's troubling is not just the turnout, but the margin as well. Young republicans seem to stick around a lot better than young democrats.

 

[Black Mamba]

But white males who are democratic/liberal leaning usually have slightly higher turnout than college crowd in midterms, which doesn't make it any better.

not sure how this doesn't make my point for me...?

 

[Oblivion]

Obama done real good with his press conference. He didn't have that wienie, defeatist attitude he did in 2010.

Hopefully he follows through with what he says, and doesn't go with some idiotic triangulation strategy.

 

[Wilsongt]

It's 13% percent of the overall vote share, not 13% of young people overall.

New York Times compiles a pretty good history of the House vote exit polls to maybe get a sense of how things trend election to election, bouncing between 12% and 19% midterm to presidential election.

What's troubling is not just the turnout, but the margin as well. Young republicans seem to stick around a lot better than young democrats.

Young Republicans have zealous parents most likely and it makes them zealous, too. Plus, they look like old people.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Obama done real good with his press conference. He didn't have that wienie, defeatist attitude he did in 2010.

Hopefully he follows through with what he says, and doesn't go with some idiotic triangulation strategy.

Eh, McConnell already said he talked to Obama about fast tracking TPP and cutting corporate taxes. Obama put repatriation on the table. Whether you call it triangulation or something else, the corporatist colors are gonna be quite visible in the coming months.

 

[Oblivion]

Eh, McConnell already said he talked to Obama about fast tracking TPP and cutting corporate taxes. Obama put repatriation on the table. Whether you call it triangulation or something else, the corporatist colors are gonna be quite visible in the coming months.

Well, I guess we'll see if some posters here are right and see if Reid shitcans everything with the filibuster.

 

[RustyNails]

not sure how this doesn't make my point for me...?

What I'm saying is off-year a low turnout for white males is expected, which all the polling took into account.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Eh, McConnell already said he talked to Obama about fast tracking TPP and cutting corporate taxes. Obama put repatriation on the table. Whether you call it triangulation or something else, the corporatist colors are gonna be quite visible in the coming months.

none of those sound overly horrible for the average american. they're unfair and let businesses off the hook, but I care about him caving on SS, income tax reform, estate tax reform, food stamp cuts, etc.

fast tracking doesn't pass and trade law, it just gives the president the authority to bypass the republican congress just forcing a yes or no vote.

If democrats aren't in control in any chamber what's the issue?

 

[WayneMorse]

On a positive note, it looks like the jobs report on Friday is gonna be good.

We could have unemployment below 5% by the end of 2015, but wages will still be shit though.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

On a positive note, it looks like the jobs report on Friday is gonna be good.

We could have unemployment below 5% by the end of 2015, but wages will still be shit though.

Republican senate recovery?

 

[WayneMorse]

Also maybe we could actually get some slightly progressive legislation through Congress, Orrin Hatch and Elizabeth Warren are working on a bill that would increase funding for science and medicine by $2 billion.

 

[Grexeno]

Also maybe we could actually get some slightly progressive legislation through Congress, Orrin Hatch and Elizabeth Warren are working on a bill that would increase funding for science and medicine by $2 billion.

Spoiler alert: it will die in the House.

 

[WayneMorse]

Spoiler alert: it will die in the House.

Maybe not. Now that they control both Houses the GOP may want to pass some compromised bills to show they can govern.

It's unlikely, but possible.

 

[KingK]

Maybe not. Now that they control both Houses the GOP may want to pass some compromised bills to show they can govern.

It's unlikely, but possible.

Boehner has been trying to pass some compromised bills to show that they can govern for the last 4 years. Certainly for the last 2. The problem is that he has no control over the crazy fucks in the House, so what he and McConnell and the other leadership want may not end up being relevant.

 

[RustyNails]

I wonder what the fate of immigration reform be, after Obama enacts some orders in the coming weeks?

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Boehner has been trying to pass some compromised bills to show that they can govern for the last 4 years. Certainly for the last 2. The problem is that he has no control over the crazy fucks in the House, so what he and McConnell and the other leadership want may not end up being relevant.

They have a more comfortable margin

 

[NYCmetsfan]

I wonder what the fate of immigration reform be, after Obama enacts some orders in the coming weeks?

some anger, lawsuit, and attempts to pass laws that reverse it and then nothing.

the new obamacare

One good thing about it, since its Executive action it will be easy to run adds in places like nevada and other latino hotspots saying if you stay home and a republican becomes president your friends and family could/would be deported.

 

[benjipwns]

Women’s health activist Sandra Fluke lost her bid for a seat in the California state Senate.

Fluke, a Democrat who rose to prominence after conservative radio host Rush Limbaugh called her a “slut” for asking that religious institutions cover birth control and abortions, lost to Democrat Ben Allen in California’s 26th District.

Allen won the primary in June to take the state Senate seat left behind by Democrat Ted Lieu. According to LA Weekly, the Santa Monica-Malibu school board member held a 22-point lead over Fluke after more than half of the votes were in.

Both candidates, who faced off Tuesday after finishing as the top two in the June primary, raised over $1 million for their campaigns.

Meanwhile, three weeks ago: http://edition.cnn.com/2014/10/16/opinion/kohn-democrats-midterms/index.html

The midterm elections are less than three weeks away, but by several measures, Democrats have already won.

oops

 

[thepotatoman]

The bloodlust was lower than in 2010. It was the Democrat apathy that lost.

As I keep repeating, whites under 45 years old didn't vote and that cost the Democrats.

Just to make sure, you do know whites under 30/45 have gone to republicans in 2010, 2012, and now 2014, right? And they did it by by 7 points in the house in 2010, and 7 points again in the presidency of 2012 (I know it's not apples to apples but it's all I could find quickly).

Seems to me the only time democrats had young white people was when they had George Bush to run against.

They have a more comfortable margin

Enough that he doesn't have to break the hastert rule? The margin itself was never the problem.

 

[Angry Fork]

87% of my generation stayed home. I'm going to fucking blame them, because they're morons.

Young people are mobilized by passionate big ideas that effect them, not pragmatism. The democratic party is all pragmatism and constantly being on the defensive. There is no talk in the dem party about free public tuition for college (or abolishing debt), there is no talk about at least 15$ minimum wage (now, not to be rolled out in 10 years where 15 will no longer be enough) or a basic income. There's no widespread talk of ending the drug war full stop, there's no talk of ending the surveillance state. Whether or not any of this passes congress is irrelevant, it's about being for something new and interesting if you want people to get out of the house and vote.

Young people care about this stuff and would vote for it if a charismatic, interesting, courageous party/people were willing to defend these ideas and challenge the right wing. Dems are unwilling to do this.

Until dems are wiling to go back to ideology, economic populism, and pro-civil liberties, young people will continue to be apathetic towards establishment democrats. To say republicans would be worse is simply not enough. This is not a problem on the right wing, where ideology dominates everything they're doing, and it's working. They don't have the young vote but they're capturing older working class people who should be dems, if dems had the balls to be anti-establishment.

If you want to gauge where liberal young people are at, it's someone like Russell Brand. Dems aren't talking like Brand except Bernie Sanders. Anyone who says only a center-right moderate dem party can get elected has a lot to prove after these results.

 

[Oblivion]

How many senate seats are up in 2016? The Reps control 54, and Jon Chait seems to think it'll be a tall order getting control back.

 

[ivysaur12]

How many senate seats are up in 2016? The Reps control 54, and Jon Chait seems to think it'll be a tall order getting control back.

Currently, Democrats are expected to have 10 seats up for election, and Republicans are expected to have 24 seats up for election.

4.1 Alabama
4.2 Alaska
4.3 Arizona
4.4 Arkansas
4.5 California
4.6 Colorado
4.7 Connecticut
4.8 Florida
4.9 Georgia
4.10 Hawaii
4.11 Idaho
4.12 Illinois
4.13 Indiana
4.14 Iowa
4.15 Kansas
4.16 Kentucky
4.17 Louisiana
4.18 Maryland
4.19 Missouri
4.20 Nevada
4.21 New Hampshire
4.22 New York
4.23 North Carolina
4.24 North Dakota
4.25 Ohio
4.26 Oklahoma
4.27 Oregon
4.28 Pennsylvania
4.29 South Carolina
4.30 South Dakota
4.31 Utah
4.32 Vermont
4.33 Washington
4.34 Wisconsin

It'll be a tough year for them. They can't lose 4 seats.

 

[RustyNails]

How many senate seats are up in 2016? The Reps control 54, and Jon Chait seems to think it'll be a tall order getting control back.

SENATORS UP FOR REELECTION IN 2016

DEMOCRATS

Michael Bennet (Colorado)
Richard Blumenthal (Connecticut)
Barbara Boxer (California)
Patrick Leahy (Vermont)
Barbara Mikulski (Maryland)
Patty Murray (Washington)
Harry Reid (Nevada)
Charles Schumer (New York)
Ron Wyden (Oregon)

REPUBLICANS

Kelly Ayotte (New Hampshire)
Roy Blunt (Missouri)
John Boozman (Arkansas)
Richard Burr (North Carolina)
Dan Coats (Indiana)
Tom Coburn (Oklahoma) – Retiring in 2014. Seat TBD in 2014 special election.
Mike Crapo (Idaho)
Chuck Grassley (Iowa)
John Hoeven (North Dakota)
Johnny Isakson (Georgia)
Ron Johnson (Wisconsin)
Mark Kirk (Illinois)
Mike Lee (Utah)
John McCain (Arizona)
Jerry Moran (Kansas)
Lisa Murkowski (Alaska)
Rand Paul (Kentucky)
Rob Portman (Ohio)
Marco Rubio (Florida)
Richard Shelby (Alabama)
John Thune (South Dakota)
Pat Toomey (Pennsylvania)
David Vitter (Louisiana)

Hawaii, Oklahoma and South Carolina each have one Senate seat TBD in 2014 Special Election. Winner of 2014 special election will be up for re-election in 2016.

link

 

[benjipwns]

Here's the map and incumbents btw:

South Carolina and Oklahoma are now Red, Hawai'i is Blue.

Beaten like the Democratic Party in 2014.

 

[ivysaur12]

Here's the map and incumbents btw:

Toomey, Ayotte, and Kirk are the easy targets. Especially since Kathleen Kane is going to run in PA. Lisa Madigan is an obvious choice for Kirk's seat, though that'll probably be tougher than most would expect. Maggie Hassan could run for Ayotte's seat -- that would be interesting.

Then it comes down to recruiting. Also, I'm sure someone will retire from here on out.

 

[RustyNails]

Not sure if Ayotte is easy pickings. Kirk and Toomey should be sweating.

 

[KingK]

After reflecting on the results a bit more, losing the Senate doesn't hurt too badly. Most of the senators that lost were Blue Dogs anyway, so good riddance. The only one that really stings is Udall losing, because he had a really good voting record if you're a liberal.

Losing all of those Governors' races is really depressing though. That's where I had been a little more optimistic.

 

[Oblivion]

It'll be a tough year for them. They can't lose 4 seats.

link

Thanks. If they have 24 seats up, then yeah I don't see how the keep the majority.

 

[RustyNails]

Thanks. If they have 24 seats up, then yeah I don't see how the keep the majority.

Simple majority means nothing...It will be just like Obama's middle 4 years.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Don't forget Ron Johnson (R-WI). He's not too popular as far as I can tell.

Democrats would need to swing five seats to win the Senate, four if they hold the presidency. Other than Johnson and the three ivysaur mentioned, there's also Grassley (would be competitive if he retired), Portman (probably safe) and Rubio (could be competitive) from Obama states.

 

[benjipwns]

http://www.salon.com/2014/11/05/we_...emocracy_and_the_democrats_sorry_dereliction/

The American republic didn’t end this week because conservative Republicans captured the Senate. Conservative Republicans captured the Senate because the republic has been ending, as liberal Democrats and libertarian Republicans surf four predatory new asymmetries in our national life – in security, in speech, in investment and in consumer marketing. These immense imbalances of power are submerging the elections, delegitimizing the liberal capitalist republic that promised to give security, speech, investment and marketing deeply different meanings and consequences than the ones they’ve acquired.

Nothing less than a transformation of American citizenship worthy of Nathan Hale, Mahatma Gandhi, Martin Luther King Jr. (who learned a lot from Gandhi), Vaclav Havel and, yes, Edward Snowden can free us from yet another spectacle of politicians who look like pinheads dancing on pins’ heads.

Well, okay, then.

 

[ivysaur12]

Don't forget Ron Johnson (R-WI). He's not too popular as far as I can tell.

Democrats would need to swing five seats to win the Senate, four if they hold the presidency. Other than Johnson and the three ivysaur mentioned, there's also Grassley (would be competitive if he retired), Portman (probably safe) and Rubio (could be competitive) from Obama states.

Grassley says he's running, but he's also 81. On the other hand, I also think he's smart enough to know exactly when to retire, which is not 2016.

Portman is safe. Rubio needs the right candidate to run against him (and I'm not familiar with Florida politics to know who that could be).

Not sure if Ayotte is easy pickings. Kirk and Toomey should be sweating.

Depends on who they run. That's another one -- like Florida -- where the Dems need to do better on their recruiting. Thankfully, their bench is very good in NH.

 

[Oblivion]

Simple majority means nothing...It will be just like Obama's middle 4 years.

McConnell will nuke the remaining filibuster, so we won't need 60 seats next time.

Don't forget Ron Johnson (R-WI). He's not too popular as far as I can tell.

Democrats would need to swing five seats to win the Senate, four if they hold the presidency. Other than Johnson and the three ivysaur mentioned, there's also Grassley (would be competitive if he retired), Portman (probably safe) and Rubio (could be competitive) from Obama states.

You again?!

 

[thepotatoman]

Thanks. If they have 24 seats up, then yeah I don't see how the keep the majority.

+3 should be pretty easy at the very least, but if Republicans get the presidency, Democrats would need +5, and it's unlikely they'll get +5 if the nation is going republican for president .

So, it basically makes the presidency a 100% must win now.

 

[benjipwns]

Here's one thing to remember about Florida politics, there's always someone worse and the Democrats seem intent on finding them.

Watch them run Wasserman-Schulz against Rubio.

 

[ivysaur12]

Ayotte:

Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kelly
Ayotte’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 49%
Disapprove...................................................... 32%
Not sure .......................................................... 18%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/11/tight-races-across-the-board-in-nc-ga-nh-ia-ks.html#more

Johnson:

Looking forward to the 2016 Senate election, Democrats at least for now are pretty well positioned to put Ron Johnson out of office after just one term. Johnson has only a 34% approval rating to 36% of voters who disapprove of him, and even after more than 3 years in the Senate 30% don't know enough about him to have formed an opinion.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/04/walker-leads-burke-by-3-points.html#more

Toomey:

Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Pat
Toomey’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 31%
Disapprove...................................................... 34%
Not Sure.......................................................... 35%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/06/wolf-with-hefty-lead-in-governors-race.html#more

Krik:

Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark
Kirk’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 38%
Disapprove...................................................... 28%
Not sure .......................................................... 34%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/11/fl-mi-il-gov-races-all-too-close-to-call.html#more

Rubio:

Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Marco Rubio’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 40%
Disapprove...................................................... 41%
Not sure .......................................................... 19%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/11/fl-mi-il-gov-races-all-too-close-to-call.html

Here's one thing to remember about Florida politics, there's always someone worse and the Democrats seem intent on finding them.

Watch them run Wasserman-Schulz against Rubio.

Pretty much. They'll fuck it up somehow, even though his disapproval 2 years out is not great.

EDIT: Also, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin will almost certainly run in 2016, and Thune almost lost in 2004. Sandlin could potentially perform better.

 

[Triplicates]

Reid is toast if Sandoval goes for him.

 

[thepotatoman]

Should I bring up the fact that Kentucky has a democrat house and probably will make Rand Paul leave his seat to run for president, or have we 100% given up on the south?

 

[ivysaur12]

Reid is toast if Sandoval goes for him.

That too. And Bennett was elected by the skin of his teeth last time, though the election makeup will be much more favorable to both of them than in 2010. Sandoval is no Sharron Angle.

Should I bring up the fact that Kentucky has a democrat house and probably will make Rand Paul leave his seat to run for president, or have we 100% given up on the south?

They can't give up the South -- the South has to be in play, so I assume they'll do more recruiting there. Grimes could run again, but, eh. They need someone who is unabashedly pro-coal (Grimes often seemed fake about her coal enthusiasm), as much as they might be against my particular policies.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Toomey, Ayotte, and Kirk are the easy targets. Especially since Kathleen Kane is going to run in PA. Lisa Madigan is an obvious choice for Kirk's seat, though that'll probably be tougher than most would expect. Maggie Hassan could run for Ayotte's seat -- that would be interesting.

Then it comes down to recruiting. Also, I'm sure someone will retire from here on out.

Back to counting chickens being they hatch. Sigh.

Everything boils down to the economy. If the economy is better in two years, democrats might pull it off. If not, they probably won't. And if Hillary doesn't run...

 

[ivysaur12]

Back to counting chickens being they hatch. Sigh.

Everything boils down to the economy. If the economy is better in two years, democrats might pull it off. If not, they probably won't. And if Hillary doesn't run...

It's none of that. It's not really that early to start speculating about Senate candidate in 2016, especially since they'll be on much friendlier soil (and a much friendlier electorate) than in 2014.

And of course Hillary is running. I know that's your thing, but she's very, very, very clearly running.

 

[benjipwns]

Arkansas and Arizona are potential D pickups depending on the candidates.

If Rand Paul lands on the GOP Presidential ticket he can't run for Senate unless they change the law.

If Feingold wanted his seat back, he'd probably get it.

 

[ivysaur12]

Arkansas and Arizona are potential D pickups depending on the candidates.

If Rand Paul lands on the GOP Presidential ticket he can't run for Senate unless they change the law.

If Feingold wanted his seat back, he'd probably get it.

I assume that if Gabby Giffords wants to run (as she's sort of kind of hinted at), that would be a very tough fight for McCain. Though, I guess anyone could beat him:

Raleigh, N.C. -- PPP's newest Arizona poll finds that John McCain is unpopular with Republicans, Democrats, and independents alike and has now become the least popular Senator in the country. Only 30% of Arizonans approve of the job McCain is doing to 54% who disapprove. There isn't much variability in his numbers by party- he's at 35/55 with Republicans, 29/53 with Democrats, and 25/55 with independents.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/03/mccain-has-worst-poll-numbers-in-the-country.html

Obviously though Republican numbers would shore up and those Democrat numbers would depress, but not great. And as we've seen from this election, moderate Democrats can play very well in Arizona -- They have 4 of 9 of the House AZ seats (and almost had 5, and those were all very competitive races (minus 1).

And Kentucky's House is still Democratic. They've blocked the law thus far. He's got to retire.