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PoliGAF 2014 |OT2| We need to be more like Disney World

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N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
Democrats had largely presided over a crumbling status quo of painful economies and promises that go nowhere, especially in states like Michigan and Ohio. Every two or four years some democrat runs on "ending tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas" and other things that don't mean anything. The thing I hope democrats take from 2014 is that people elect you to get things done. Kaish, Walker, and Brownback pushed their agenda through no holds barred, and bet on the economy improving enough for voters not to focus on the extremism. And it worked. Democrats pushed through ACA on the national level sure, but it's becoming more and more clear they should have shitcanned the filibuster and gone no holds barred. If it works it works, if not...you tried.

What we're left with is a large group of people who think "nothing" has gotten accomplished since 2009. And while they're wrong, they aren't wrong by much. Democrats had nothing to run on in 2014, just as they had nothing to run on in 2010. That's a problem that Walker didn't have. Scott didn't have it in Florida, or Snyder in Michigan. When Kaish couldn't get the Medicaid expansion passed he went around congress and got it done. They have actual records to run on, not "vote for me or x will ban abortion!"

2009 and 2010 should have been nonstop ramming through shit. Yes there were blue dogs and Lincoln Blanche types, but not enough was done to handle that. They passed the stimulus and decided that was enough, from an economic standpoint. And now here we are.
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This is my biggest problem with dems.

They don't run on policy they run screaming about how radical the GOP is so "vote for us" but has its been shown people love giving the benefit of the doubt to politicians (this also works for dems in 2012, voters didn't by the Obama hates business and wants socialism stuff). There needs to be a reason to vote for them.

Run on their platform.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
In addendum to all of that, I will say that the Dems had some really shit recruiting this year which could've softened the blow elsewhere. But they also fumbled on their message. And this is what we got.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
BertramCooper said:
I'd say the bigger issue with the media in this election is that they basically called the race a year in advance and have been hammering about the inevitability of a Republican takeover ever since.

At what point does it become a self-fulfilling prophecy? I don't think it's a stretch to assume that the prevailing media narrative of a GOP wave had an impact on voter turnout.
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This is part of why I don't mind folks repeating the whole "electoral college lock" prophecy. If forced to guess, I'd bet that this is a very real factor. This year, it worked for the other side of the aisle: turnout for Dems went down, turnout for the GOP went up.

Come 2016, if it looks like the Dems' blue wall will hold and the GOP won't be able to crack it, I honestly wonder how much GOP turnout will be affected. (Unless they come-up with some new novel version of poll-unskewing..)
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
HylianTom said:
This is part of why I don't mind folks repeating the whole "electoral college lock" prophecy. If forced to guess, I'd bet that this is a very real factor. This year, it worked for the other side of the aisle: turnout for Dems went down, turnout for the GOP went up.

Come 2016, if it looks like the Dems' blue wall will hold and the GOP won't be able to crack it, I honestly wonder how much GOP turnout will be affected. (Unless they come-up with some new novel version of poll-unskewing..)
Click to expand...

Can Clinton galvanize as much hate as Obama does? Even at worst I'd say probably not. Obama is a once in a life time GOP motivator. I suppose if he was gay or openly atheist he could push it to the theoretical max.

However on the flip side can Clinton inspire minority voters like Obama did? I may be remembering wrong but she did well with hispanics in 2008.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
BertramCooper said:
I'd say the bigger issue with the media in this election is that they basically called the race a year in advance and have been hammering about the inevitability of a Republican takeover ever since.

At what point does it become a self-fulfilling prophecy? I don't think it's a stretch to assume that the prevailing media narrative of a GOP wave had an impact on voter turnout.
Click to expand...

The two are related. Ernst got coddled by the media because the media called it for Ernst early. They had a story they wanted to tell and they weren't going to let reality change that narrative. Maybe not in a malicious manner, but in a lazy reporting manner.
 
G

Gruco

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
Democrats had largely presided over a crumbling status quo of painful economies and promises that go nowhere, especially in states like Michigan and Ohio. Every two or four years some democrat runs on "ending tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas" and other things that don't mean anything. The thing I hope democrats take from 2014 is that people elect you to get things done. Kaish, Walker, and Brownback pushed their agenda through no holds barred, and bet on the economy improving enough for voters not to focus on the extremism. And it worked. Democrats pushed through ACA on the national level sure, but it's becoming more and more clear they should have shitcanned the filibuster and gone no holds barred. If it works it works, if not...you tried.
Click to expand...

I generally agree with the sentiment, but don't think Brownback is a good example. He went from 63% of the vote in 2010 to barely 50 last night and became massively unpopular in the meantime. If anything he's a good story about the risks of pushing to hard. In a state other than Kansas or an environment other than a republican wave, he'd be done.

Democrats are terrible at demonstrating their support for popular issues and using the theatre of politics. I mean, I am glad they care about quiet stuff like appointments and appropriations, but republicans voted on repealing health care 5,000 times. You know what they're about.

Remember "pass this jobs bill?" At least got people to pay attention. Obama really never lived up to campaigning for policy while in office, and Congressional Dems certainly never saw any use for it either. At some point I hope they just say fuck it and start going crazy on support for immigration, min wage, etc.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Bam Bam Baklava said:
Can Clinton galvanize as much hate as Obama does? Even at worst I'd say probably not. Obama is a once in a life time GOP motivator. I suppose if he was gay or openly atheist he could push it to the theoretical max.

However on the flip side can Clinton inspire minority voters like Obama did? I may be remembering wrong but she did well with hispanics in 2008.
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I honestly forget how she did with Hispanics in '08. And while there was vitriol for Bill in the 1990s (he killed Vince Foster, y'know!), there now seems to be a strange retrospective respect for Bill that contrasts with how Obama is viewed. Or maybe the right hates Obama so much that their treatment of Bill just looks like respect in comparison? Either way, there's now a nice-sized reel of video footage of Republicans praising the Clintons that I'm positive we'll see over the next two years.

I'd bet good money that she'll easily outperform Obama among working class white voters, which would bode really well for winning/keeping midwestern states.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Our buddy Aaron hasnt shown up since last night. Where are you???

I hope you can give us your candid thoughts on the drubbing on yesterday.

x(
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Bam Bam Baklava said:
Can Clinton galvanize as much hate as Obama does? Even at worst I'd say probably not. Obama is a once in a life time GOP motivator. I suppose if he was gay or openly atheist he could push it to the theoretical max.

However on the flip side can Clinton inspire minority voters like Obama did? I may be remembering wrong but she did well with hispanics in 2008.
Click to expand...
Are you saying she'll fix the turnout problem of minorities and young democrats in the midterms, or that she'll finally get old white people to vote for democrats in the midterms?

Neither seems incredibly likely to me, unless she somehow turns into a 100 times better leader than she is a campaigner.

NeoXChaos said:
Our buddy Aaron hasnt shown up since last night. Where are you???

I hope you can give us your candid thoughts on the drubbing on yesterday.

x(
Click to expand...
He's posted a bunch on this very page. You're probably just confused by his spiffy new avatar.
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
thepotatoman said:
Are you saying she'll fix the turnout problem of minorities and young democrats in the midterms, or that she'll finally get old white people to vote for democrats in the midterms?

Neither seems incredibly likely to me, unless she somehow turns into a 100 times better leader than she is a campaigner.
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I'm saying she has positives and negatives going for her. Obviously it would be hard to get black voters to turnout in record numbers like they did for Obama. However she was pretty good with hispanics back in 2008 and white voters.

Ultimately it comes down to her ability to run a proper campaign because the map for her is wide open. Like people talk about 2014 Dems would have had to run the table to maintain the Senate that's true of the electoral map in 2016 for Republicans.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
Bam Bam Baklava said:
I'm saying she has positives and negatives going for her. Obviously it would be hard to get black voters to turnout in record numbers like they did for Obama. However she was pretty good with hispanics back in 2008 and white voters.

Ultimately it comes down to her ability to run a proper campaign because the map for her is wide open. Like people talk about 2014 Dems would have had to run the table to maintain the Senate that's true of the electoral map in 2016 for Republicans.
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She's married to the first black president though
 
T

Trey

Member
Near record low turnout in New York State. Cuomo won reelection with less than 2 million votes, first time that happened since FDR. Of course, Republicans picked up several state senate seats, and their caucus is now at its most powerful in decades.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
How did we get slaughtered twice?

2010 & 2014.......

Things dont look good for 2018. Mid-West & Rocky Mountains.

Dead in the deep south and rural middle america like SD, ND, UT etc

Manchin running in 2016 for Gov.

x(. The D's have to fix this and idk how they can.
 
T

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
TacticalFox88 said:
So apparently only 13% of millennial voted yesterday

I don't even...
Click to expand...

This is what a culture of disillusionment does. And while I'm not going to directly blame conservative forces (beyond just the formal idea of "Republicans") for all of it, I think they had a pretty big fucking hand.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Bam Bam Baklava said:
I'm saying she has positives and negatives going for her. Obviously it would be hard to get black voters to turnout in record numbers like they did for Obama. However she was pretty good with hispanics back in 2008 and white voters.

Ultimately it comes down to her ability to run a proper campaign because the map for her is wide open. Like people talk about 2014 Dems would have had to run the table to maintain the Senate that's true of the electoral map in 2016 for Republicans.
Click to expand...

Yup.

I also don't envy them in that they'll have to contend with Bill being out there, hopping from state to state. Obama might've tripped him up in the primaries, but his ability to sell the Dems in contrast against the GOP is still pretty solid. In 2012, he gave what might be considered the best nominating convention speech we've seen in at least a decade.
 
K

kingkitty

Member
The Virginia race is still up in the air lol

I was doubted for my fears, and I thought I was overreacting as well but here we are. Dana Perino was a fucking prophet. All hail Dana Perino.

I still think Warner will be able to pull through...but...smh
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
kingkitty said:
The Virginia is still up in the air lol

I was doubted for my fears, and I thought I was overreacting as well but here we are. Dana Perino was a fucking prophet. All hail Dana Perino.

I still think Warner will be able to pull through...but...smh
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It's not -- it's a .6% difference, but it's 99% reporting and the two outstanding precincts lean Warner and lean Gillepse by the same amount. He'll get reelected. But it shouldn't have been this close.
 
K

kingkitty

Member
ivysaur12 said:
It's not -- it's a .6% difference, but it's 99% reporting and the two outstanding precincts lean Warner and lean Gillepse by the same amount. He'll get reelected. But it shouldn't have been this close.
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Yeah I know but I meant it hasn't been officially called. Ridiculous how close this was.

Democrats really got shooked this year. I'm still tender.
 
T

Tamanon

Banned
Akainu said:
I registered to vote in high school and voted in every election I was able to.

I've gotten two of those voter report card things and my score is perfect.
How is this info available.
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Voter records are publicly available(just that you voted and what you're registered as) for GOTV efforts by campaigns.
 
A

Averon

Member
Why did the Dems repeat the 2010 strategy of running away from Obama, playing defense, and not talk up the party's accomplishments? All that does is make your own voters depressed and less likely to vote.

It proved to be a horrible strategy in 2010. I don't understand why they thought it would work again in 2014. I really hope someone writes a comprehensive article about that.
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
Averon said:
Why did the Dems repeat the 2010 strategy of running away from Obama, playing defense, and not talk up the party's accomplishments? All that does is make your own voters depressed and less likely to vote.

It proved to be a horrible strategy in 2010. I don't understand why they thought it would work again in 2014. I really hope someone writes a comprehensive article about that.
Click to expand...

11th dimension chess. You see, the plan is to let the reps take over now so that they can fail at everything, then democrats can take everything in '16.

Heck, you've people in this very thread that a coupla months ago were suggesting that people run on bashing obama and oh gods please let immigration reform for after the election, otherwise it might hurt dem seats.

Welp.

GaimeGuy said:
13%.

You.

Fucking.

Dumbasses.
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Don't do that. That's the equivalent of blaming 2000 on nader.
 
T

TacticalFox88

Banned
Obama "I truly believe we are more than collection of red and blue states."

I don't believe you believe this in 2004, I sure as hell don't think you believe it now.
 
G

GaimeGuy

Volunteer Deputy Campaign Director, Obama for America '16
Coriolanus said:
11th dimension chess. You see, the plan is to let the reps take over now so that they can fail at everything, then democrats can take everything in '16.

Heck, you've people in this very thread that a coupla months ago were suggesting that people run on bashing obama and oh gods please let immigration reform for after the election, otherwise it might hurt dem seats.

Welp.



Don't do that. That's the equivalent of blaming 2000 on nader.
Click to expand...

87% of my generation stayed home. I'm going to fucking blame them, because they're morons.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Warner's lead has now increased to 17k, and that'll probably continue to grow if they start to count provisional ballots. Phew.
 
B

bonercop

Member
Obama: "we'll agree on making sure we're boosting American exports"

i'm sure the average person's best interests will be the central focus here, just like with the TPP.
 
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