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[NeoXChaos]

"The national Democratic Party has fully embraced and even defined itself in terms of cultural liberalism — on gun control, gay rights, immigration, abortion, environmental policy and other issues. Generational and demographic change are likely to push the Democrats further in this direction, if anything, because younger and minority voters are strongly liberal on cultural issues.

Those voters have helped the Democrats win the popular vote in five of the last six presidential elections. But without a broader base of support that lets Democrats win more votes in the South, it will be very hard for them to win back the House, and it may even be hard for them to win back the Senate."

x(

 

[Avon Barksdale]

Angus King will remain caucused with the Dems

He believes in climate change, so of course he wasn't going to actually caucus with the party that denies science.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

87% of my generation stayed home. I'm going to fucking blame them, because they're morons.

Blame should be on the Democratic Party for not mobilizing them, if you want to blame anyone

Voting in general is costly. It makes sense to not vote for a lot of people, particularly young people.

 

[Black Mamba]

Blame should be on the Democratic Party for not mobilizing them, if you want to blame anyone

Voting in general is costly. It makes sense to not vote for a lot of people.

The youth never vote in midterms, though. It's not like it's unique to Obama.

For all the panicking here, the truth is not enough people under 40 vote in the midterms and so long that is the case, it won't be fixed. And I have no fucking clue how to fix that without mandatory voting. No one does. But it's not an issue in Presidential elections where the under 45 or 40 (I forgot) makes up 50% of the electorate and the GOP is screwed.

There are two reasons why the Dems lost.

1. Not turning out under 40 vote, which is always the issue

2. swing voters are morons and seem to ride the party not in power or with perceived momentum because they want to vote for the eventual winner.

The only way to win #2 when you're in power is to be very strong or the other party makes a colossal fuckup. Which is why the gov't shutdown happening last year ending up not mattering since it didn't happen this year.

This is just how it is. And it boils down to 1 specific issue. Our electorate is mostly filled with uninformed voters. This is why in Illinois they will vote for a min wage increase and vote in the guy who opposes it. I've had this argument on poli-gaf years ago with someone and I feel even stronger today when I argued our electorate is fucking stupid. How much more evidence is needed?



edit: We've essentially created a system where Presidential elections will go one way and midterms the other every time unless a party does a gigantic fuckup or something big happens (ie 9/11)

 

[PhoenixDark]

Obama sounds so idiotic on the Keystone pipeline. Approve it or don't. I don't care either way but it's baffling why this still going on.

 

[bonercop]

The youth never vote in midterms, though. It's not like it's unique to Obama.

the youth vote is almost half of what it was in 2010. That's pretty significant.

 

[Black Mamba]

the youth vote is almost half of what it was in 2010. That's pretty significant.

Where are you getting that? 13% now...12% in 2010 is what I recall.

 

[Rhomega Beta]

Here's Arizona's results in case anyone's interested: http://nocache.azcentral.com/elections/election_app/

 

[bonercop]

Where are you getting that? 13% now...12% in 2010 is what I recall.

EDIT:I guess I should add a source

 

[Jooney]

He believes in climate change, so of course he wasn't going to actually caucus with the party that denies science.

Best part about the GOP takeover: Inhofe will now likely chair the Environment and Public Works committee.

Nothing like a climate change denier to oversee the EPA!

 

[ivysaur12]

Here's Arizona's results in case anyone's interested: http://nocache.azcentral.com/elections/election_app/

Kirsten Sinema going the distance is so great.

 

[Black Mamba]

EDIT:I guess I should add a source

That's turnout percentage, not percentage of the electorate.

12% of the electorate was the youth vote in 2010, 13% today. Was like 20% in 2012.

In 2012, almost 45% of the youth turned out to vote. I'm sure in 2014, it was the same 25% you cite here.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Obama not backing down on the immigration executive order. Good...but at the same time, should have done that months ago.

Probably.

The delay was to help Democratic Senators in the South. Turns out it didn't do shit for them.

Pryor losing by 17 points are you kidding me

 

[Chumly]

So Nebraska successfully threw out the GOP incumbent from the 2nd congressional and elected brad ashford a democrat. Are we the only district to successfully flip from GOP to democrat??

 

[Avon Barksdale]

So Nebraska successfully threw out the GOP incumbent from the 2nd congressional and elected brad ashford a democrat. Are we the only district to successfully flip from GOP to democrat??

In a red ass state, nonetheless.

 

[bonercop]

That's turnout percentage, not percentage of the electorate.

12% of the electorate was the youth vote in 2010, 13% today. Was like 20% in 2012.

In 2012, almost 45% of the youth turned out to vote. I'm sure in 2014, it was the same 25% you cite here.

Oh.

Well I got owned! Someone made the same mistake I did in the other thread and posted there and I decided to look it up. Didn't look too closely at the numbers because it fit the narrative I had built in my head, I guess. My apologies

 

[Black Mamba]

Which goes to show you it's not minorities. It's that the white vote is comprised of mostly the older white people who are very conservative.

The white youth doesn't turn out in midterms. They're the specific group to blame. Under 45 whites (and a small extent hispanic youths)

Look at it this way. 65+ whites go from 73% turnout in presidential years to roughly 63%. That's less than a 15% drop. Among 18-29 whites it goes from 45% to 25%, approaching 45% drop! The 30-44 range see a 33% drop.

The gains the Dems made this year in turnout numbers (they were better than 2010 despite the losses) were among blacks and hispanics coming out, but not the white youth!

Oh.

Well I got owned! Someone made the same mistake I did in the other thread and posted there and I decided to look it up. Didn't look too closely at the numbers because it fit the narrative I had built in my head, I guess. My apologies

That's okay. I wish you were right because that would mean this was a one time blip, something easily remedied I'd imagine. But it's not. It's a systemic problem.

eldery whites vote in midterms. Obama even got blacks to vote in midterms. But the under 45 blue collar white person isn't voting. And we don't know how to fix it.


edit: one more thing. Regardless of education, this drop-off is true. Now, the more educated, the higher the baseline. College grads under 45 vote in Presidential elections at 65% turnout but it drops to 35% in midterm years. That means the white educated person is voting for President at a high rate but still not voting in midterms. post-graduate too! It's consistently a near 50% drop regardless of education attainment under 45.

 

[Aaron Strife]

So Nebraska successfully threw out the GOP incumbent from the 2nd congressional and elected brad ashford a democrat. Are we the only district to successfully flip from GOP to democrat??

FL-2 flipped from Steve Southerland to Gwen Graham

CA-31 isn't done counting yet but the Democrat (Pete Aguilar) has declared victory, this was an open seat left by a Republican

 

[ivysaur12]

Hey, whenever you feel down, just remember that Joni Ernst is one of the voting members of the United States Senate.

 

[dabig2]

Hey, whenever you feel down, just remember that Joni Ernst is one of the voting members of the United States Senate.

Thank you, Iowa, for unleashing your batshit on us. At least the next 6 years will be entertaining I guess.

Spoiler

Corn Fuckers.

 

[Wilsongt]

Hey, whenever you feel down, just remember that Joni Ernst is one of the voting members of the United States Senate.

And that an 18 year old girl who is pro gun was elected in WV.

 

[Black Mamba]

Those thinking this was a wave, not so much:

http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/republicans-conquer-obamaland

National elections, this was pretty straight-forward red-blue divide with little crossover.

It was a map and white youths not voting. Fix the latter, map issue is minimized.

 

[theapg]

So has VA been settled yet? As a Virginian, I still have no idea.

 

[ivysaur12]

And that an 18 year old girl who is pro gun was elected in WV.

I forgot about that. Good lord.

Also, I'm officially calling last night The Red Wedding. Feel free to join.

 

[Wilsongt]

Those thinking this was a wave, not so much:

http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/republicans-conquer-obamaland

National elections, this was pretty straight-forward red-blue divide with little crossover.

It was a map and white youths not voting. Fix the latter, map issue is minimized.

And very little will get accomplished is so true. Simply for the fact that you have a party hellbent on blocking anything beneficial for Obama and continuously bringing up shit legislation.

 

[speculawyer]

He believes in climate change, so of course he wasn't going to actually caucus with the party that denies science.

Saw him on Maher's show. Seems like a stand up guy.

 

[Black Mamba]

e radical anti-LGBT religious activist Gordon “Dr. Chaps” Klingenschmitt won a seat in the Colorado House of Representatives with almost 70 percent of the vote, the Colorado Springs Gazette reports.

The former Navy chaplain’s victory was not surprising, as Republicans outnumber Democrats by a 2-to-1 margin in the El Paso County district Klingenschmitt now represents.

The notoriously anti-LGBT Klingenschmitt came to national attention last year, when he attempted to exorcise a “demonic spirit” from President Barack Obama.

“We pray against the domestic enemies of the Constitution,” Klingenschmitt said, his eyes tightly closed, “against this demon of tyranny who is using the White House occupant. That demonic spirit is oppressing us.”

On his Pray in Jesus Name radio show, Klingenschmitt regularly criticizes LGBT individuals. Last May, he responded to a Maine Supreme Court ruling allowing a transgender girl to use the bathroom of the gender with which she identified by saying, “little girls should not be exposed to little boy parts! Talk about mental health problems!”

Since this transgender girl had an identical twin brother, he said, “for one of them to suddenly start dressing like a girl, it’s not just a choice, but it’s a demonic spirit. It’s easy to say that one of those two boys is possessed by a demon. And really what the parents ought to do is take that boy to an exorcist, take that boy to a minister. Or at least, discipline the boy. Maybe give him a spanking.”

LOL. Our country.

 

[Jooney]

I forgot about that. Good lord.

Also, I'm officially calling last night The Red Wedding. Feel free to join.

PoliGAF 2014 |OT2| The Landrieu's Send Their Regards

 

[speculawyer]

Obama sounds so idiotic on the Keystone pipeline. Approve it or don't. I don't care either way but it's baffling why this still going on.

I think his approach as worked quite well. It is clear that many in his administration don't want to approve it but they all worry about the political consequences of rejecting it .. . so they just endlessly delay making a decision.

And do we even need it now? Oil prices have been crashing.

 

[NeoXChaos]

"There's a lot to disagree with here, but the Democrats can't just write off the South. There are too many House seats, Senate seats, and people living in these areas to just give up on the "bubba". Besides, the South is the region that "needs" us the most. They have the highest poverty rates, the highest obesity rates, the lowest health care coverage rates, and so on. If there's one place in the country Democrats should be able to make their pitch, the South is it. Doubling down on the Northeast/West Coast will just exacerbate this ugly tendency among some Democrats towards arrogance and over-reliance on social wedge issues."



34 of the 50 governors' mansions. Control 24 legislatures to the D's 6 x(. The rest a split decision.

"controls the governor's mansion in the following "blue states": Nevada, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Florida, Maryland, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Maine. Not to mention very, very close calls in Colorado, Vermont, Connecticut, Rhode Island and New Hampshire.

 

[ivysaur12]

PoliGAF 2014 |OT2| The Landrieu's Send Their Regards

Works better if you imagine that Shaheen is Arya Stark

 

[Coriolanus]

In other news:

Amazon screens employees for possible theft.
This takes time.
Time in which they don't pay the employee.

Somehow this made it all the way to the supreme court. I'll refrain from commenting on how grotesquely fucked your labour laws are.

Anyway, here comes the US presenting an amicus curiae in favor of amazon.

Meta, have a look. I hate the way lawyers in your country write stuff.

 

[benjipwns]

LOL. Our country.

I just discovered Dr. Chaps a few weeks ago, he's awesome:

If a gay gets to your son first, it's 50/50: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkpYlX9afwQ
Homosexuality takes 20-30 years off your life: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZz4UFH-HYg
Pravda asks Dr. Chaps about his scientific research on the homosexual: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0VISoNKCUQ

EDIT: Oh wait, this isn't Dr. Chaps, the other guy in the first video is.

The conservatives on gaf who aren't benji and Mustang are going to be insufferable over the next few weeks, aren't they?

Hey! I'm not a conservative and I'm always insufferable!

 

[KingK]

"There's a lot to disagree with here, but the Democrats can't just write off the South. There are too many House seats, Senate seats, and people living in these areas to just give up on the "bubba". Besides, the South is the region that "needs" us the most. They have the highest poverty rates, the highest obesity rates, the lowest health care coverage rates, and so on. If there's one place in the country Democrats should be able to make their pitch, the South is it. Doubling down on the Northeast/West Coast will just exacerbate this ugly tendency among some Democrats towards arrogance and over-reliance on social wedge issues."



34 of the 50 governors' mansions. Control 24 legislatures to the D's 6 x(. The rest a split decision.

"controls the governor's mansion in the following "blue states": Nevada, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Florida, Maryland, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Maine. Not to mention very, very close calls in Colorado, Vermont, Connecticut, Rhode Island and New Hampshire.

Yeah, Democrats really need to work on their economic/social justice message. They've pretty much won the culture war in the national population overall, but they're still playing by the Republican rules on how they frame economic issues. They've completely ceded the narrative here for no reason. There really should be a lot of room for Democrats to grow in the South (and everywhere poor people exist, for that matter) pushing a social justice/income inequality message, and that message has resonated in the South in the past (the region was critical to FDR's New Deal).

I realize that the South splits from the rest of the country on the social issues that Democrats have been beating them on in the Northeast/West coast in the last few elections, but even Southern Republicans have become more muted in their resistance to gay marriage and pot. Abortion is the only big one still, and that will probably always be pretty evenly split.

 

[KingK]

Works better if you imagine that Shaheen is Arya Stark

Does that make Scott Brown the Tickler?

 

[CygnusXS]

LOL. Our country.

But what are his thoughts on fiscal policy?

 

[thepotatoman]

FL-2 flipped from Steve Southerland to Gwen Graham

CA-31 isn't done counting yet but the Democrat (Pete Aguilar) has declared victory, this was an open seat left by a Republican

Ah, that's good to hear. I guess Southerland will now get the time to host all the no-women allowed parties he wants.

 

[Metaphoreus]

Meta, have a look. I hate the way lawyers in your country write stuff.

Dude, employment law is booooring. I'm gonna pass this off to SCOTUSblog. (Keep an eye open for any "In Plain English" articles from them on this case.)

 

[NobleXenon]

Im sure that shouting at them is just the thing that will get them to come out and vote.

Like I said before, let's just bring back the draft. ISIS is apparently in the top five concerns for Americans. Screw the Millennials who would be the first to be drafted. They'll then learn that voting matters and start sending absentee ballots from overseas.

I mean, I still voted even though it was patch day in GW2. I even got my fiancee; who has never voted in any election the past 14 years of eligibility, to vote and essentially doubled my voting preferences.

I don't want to hear about the Millennial's college debt problems, under/un-employment, and/or voter suppression issues.

 

[Coriolanus]

I don't want to hear about the Millennial's college debt problems, under/un-employment, and/or voter suppression issues.

Which is a good thing, since most democrats running never do anything about those topics.

 

[Wilsongt]

We have some of the worst roads in the nation, and one of our counties voted against an extra penny tax to fund road repairs.

Lol. Fucking idiots. It's a fucking penny.

 

[Black Mamba]

Drew Linzer's model outperformed 538 (it did so also in 2012 I believe) as well as Upshot and PEC.

He's the real standard bearer!

 

[ivysaur12]

Cross post from Election thread:

Alaska update:

http://www.buzzfeed.com/tomnamako/senate-seat-in-alaska-begich-sullivan?utm_term=4ldqpia&bftw=pol

Republican Dan Sullivan holds an 8,100-vote lead over Democratic U.S. Sen. Mark Begich in Alaska — but the incumbent doesn’t seem ready to concede.

Every precinct has reported its votes — Sullivan has held a consistent lead — but thousands of absentee and other ballots have yet to be counted.

Alaskans for Begich Campaign Manager Susanne Fleek-Green referenced those outstanding ballots in a statement released Wednesday afternoon.

“Inspired by stories of village elders being lifted onto four wheelers to go vote and Alaskans traveling up and down river to cast their ballots, Alaskans for Begich is anxious for a final count of all of Alaskans’ ballots and respects the procedures, process and timetable of the Alaska Division of Elections,” she said.

Begich, the former mayor of Anchorage, was the junior senator since 2009, and has been held to one term. Sullivan was the state’s attorney general under former Gov. Sara Palin and was most recently the commissioner of natural resources.

Begich is no stranger to last-minute victories. As the Associated Press reported:

He trailed Republican icon, Senator Ted Stevens, by about 3,000 votes after the 2008 general election only to come behind and win by nearly 4,000 votes when absentee ballots were counted.

Would be funny/weird/sad if Begich was the only one who made it out of this.

 

[Wilsongt]

Time to ignore the news until 2016.

 

[Oblivion]

There's one thing that makes me really fearful for 2016. As I've mentioned before, I have a special level of contempt for Joni Ernst because she was arguably the most openly batshit Republican candidate in the election. She should have been 2014's Christine O'Donnnell or Sharon Angle, and by all rights should have gotten obliterated, but didn't because she managed to trick people (and the media) into thinking she was a normal, functioning human being. Her victory is a sign that the Overton Window has once again shifted and that means Republicans can put out even crazier fucking candidates who will make the slightly less crazy candidates appear more appealing to the average voter.

Combine that with the fact that Hillary will most likely be the Dem frontrunner, and the fact that she's kind of a nimrod (I expect her to say a LOT of stupid things throughout the campaign), and Republican chances of taking over the White House seem much higher than they were before.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

its also time for liberals to start going local and getting successes there.

 

[Wilsongt]

There's one thing that makes me really fearful for 2016. As I've mentioned before, I have a special level of contempt for Joni Ernst because she was arguably the most openly batshit Republican candidate in the election. She should have been 2014's Christine O'Donnnell or Sharon Angle, and by all rights should have gotten obliterated, but didn't because she managed to trick people (and the media) into thinking she was a normal, functioning human being. Her victory is a sign that the Overton Window has once again shifted and that means Republicans can put out even crazier fucking candidates who will make the slightly less crazy candidates appear more appealing to the average voter.

Combine that with the fact that Hillary will most likely be the Dem frontrunner, and the fact that she's kind of a nimrod (I expect her to say a LOT of stupid things throughout the campaign), and Republican chances of taking over the White House seem much higher than they were before.

Old, senile people like a woman who says crazy things that rile up their base. Young people are too busy on their iPhones or playing CoD to care about voting. More news at 11.

 

[cooljeanius]

I feel like the 13% turnout levels among young people deserves a separate thread; that sort of shit is fucking disgraceful...

(I am the 13% btw)

 

[benjipwns]

Angus King will remain caucused with the Dems

Any word on Sanders?

 

[Black Mamba]

I feel like the 13% turnout levels among young people deserves a separate thread; that sort of shit is fucking disgraceful...

(I am the 13% btw)

13% of the electorate, not turnout.

It's actually higher than 2012 and 2006 which was 12%.