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[NeoXChaos]

Hardly. Crab talks about the ratios, but in the end, after some 15 million people watched the first debate and learned about Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton's numbers shot up.

Ultimately all of us are armchair politicking anyway, Crab especially because he's not American. That's not to say he can't have reasoned arguments, but he also tends to downplay a lot of the conservative-ness of the USA, because it's unfathomable to him.

Besides, it's true that Hillary is easily the superior candidate in all the respects of capability and accomplishment, and her status as a woman makes her more exceptional than Bernie Sanders. Voters could be picking her for any of the above reasons, just as they could also be picking Bernie because they are economically in favor of the poor but like guns, don't think a woman should be president, or are racist.

Her campaign doesn't need to believe something to side with it. A campaign with Obama's machine plus Clinton connections? They probably have the data to prove it. We don't.

news to me. Figured anyone who was a die hard supporter of Bernie on GAF was American and able to vote in the respective Democratic Primary.

 

[BertramCooper]

news to me. Figured anyone who was a die hard supporter of Bernie on GAF was American and able to vote in the respective Democratic Primary.

I didn't know Crab wasn't American, but I've gotten in arguments with gutter trash over Sanders, who is not American.

 

[Veritigo_X]

What's the case for this?

And I'm saying even people who like Bernie more than Hilary (like me) are going with the common wisdom that there are more potential voters in the middle than to the left. You'll have to do the work if you want to change minds, not just assert things.

That's what worries me about a potential Sanders nomination. Republicans have barely even taken notice to Sanders. They don't really have to, plus they have their own problems to deal with. If they get their attack ads in full swing (Socialism! Honeymoon in the USSR!), I don't see how he can still appeal to those in the middle. They'll paint him as something he's not. With Clinton, they can't paint her as someone else since she's been on the national stage forever now. They'll use the same attacks that resonate with their voters that despise Clinton and her favorables will remain unchanged. I don't see that being the case after they get their attacks against Sanders going.

 

[Fenderputty]

People must not have spent any time in the Greece threads if they thought crab was American.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

People must not have spent any time in the Greece threads if they thought crab was American.

I live in Britain, although if anyone can guess my nationalities I'll be impressed.

 

[Veritigo_X]

I live in Britain, although if anyone can guess my nationalities I'll be impressed.

American Indian + Irish? Based on nothing besides being an unexpected combination.

 

[Makai]

I live in Britain, although if anyone can guess my nationalities I'll be impressed.

South African

 

[RustyNails]

I live in Britain, although if anyone can guess my nationalities I'll be impressed.

El-Aurian

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I'm not actually telling, that would spoil the mystery.

 

[Fenderputty]

I live in Britain, although if anyone can guess my nationalities I'll be impressed.

Spoiler

canadian? Lol

 

[Makai]

I just remembered you were a founding member of the Italian Mafia. You live in Britain as part of some sort of EU witness protection program. Case closed.

 

[Butts-a-plenty]

There are I think a number of people like my father who is a Republican. Voted Obama 08 Romney 12 and has openly told me he'll vote Hillary if the nominee is trump or Cruz. However, he's also openly stated if it's Trump Sanders he just isn't voting. Anecdotes and all but it doesn't seem that farfetched to me

 

[Armoured Priest]

I live in Britain, although if anyone can guess my nationalities I'll be impressed.

Italian and Estonian?

Just guessing

 

[Deleted member 231381]

On a different note, and before I forget...

http://www.iea.org.uk/blog/wealth-taxes-are-not-the-way-to-go

benji, is that you in the comments? or are there two anarcho-capitalist benjis on the internet (a very unlikely story)?

 

[Veritigo_X]

Paul Ryan putting in the work to make sure the republican base hates him.

"Normally, I do not comment on what's going on in the presidential election. I will take an exception today," Ryan said.

"This is not conservatism. What was proposed yesterday is not what this party stands for. And, more importantly, it's not what this country stands for," Ryan said today at a news conference on Capitol Hill. "Not only are there many Muslims serving in our armed forces dying for this country, there are Muslims serving right here in the House working every day to uphold and to defend the Constitution."

But don't worry, Ryan would still support Trump if he were the nominee. He's not THAT upset with his comments.

Asked whether he would support Trump as the GOP presidential nominee, Ryan said he would support "whoever the nominee is."

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/paul...-trump-plan-muslims-support/story?id=35645053

I'm not actually telling, that would spoil the mystery.

Changing my answer to Crab Person.

 

[noshten]

There are I think a number of people like my father who is a Republican. Voted Obama 08 Romney 12 and has openly told me he'll vote Hillary if the nominee is trump or Cruz. However, he's also openly stated if it's Trump Sanders he just isn't voting. Anecdotes and all but it doesn't seem that farfetched to me

It works the other way, Trump is the nominee - people aren't enthusiastic about Clinton. Polling show Clinton beating Trump with ease - people decide it's a foregone conclusion before a vote is cast. Suddenly election day low voter turnout leads to a close contest. This scenario also doesn't sound very farfetched

 

[Daniel B·]

To answer my own question, on where Bernie has found the energy to put on such an amazing campaign; in his youth, he was quite the athlete, and at James Madison High School, he was the captain of both the Track and Cross Country teams, as well as being Class President:

According to that bastion of truth, Wikipedia , earlier at his Brooklyn elementary school (P.S. 197), he "won a state championship on the basketball team" (unsourced). I'm taking even odds on a Sanders vs Obama one-on-one epic match-up, after Bernie secures the nom, of course (would also give him time to fully recover from his recent op), where Obama has just a one inch height advantage at 6′ 1″.

 

[Abinash117]

Crab's argument is pretty clear and you guys aren't really addressing it.

I don't think minorities will fall for Sanders even if he wins lowa. Sanders policies helps minorities, but so do Martin and Clinton. Many democrats already like Hilary immensely and is extremely well known, including minorities whom Hillary has a actual relations with. The reason for minorities to jump ship to Sanders - there is very little in the looking at it at a perspective. The argument I am seeing is that Obama did it, so so can Bernie or his policies are good for minorities so they will go to Bernie once they know him. That argument is dismissing many factors and is focused only on Bernie and minorities. Additionally, Bernie is still far behind Hillary in terms of popularity and support among democrats in nearly every single category this far in. After the debates, campaigning, speeches, rallies if he has not got the support that he needs now despite all that I doubt he can get it unless he takes it up to a 11. Lastly, Obama won states because I think he managed to court delegates. For example Hillary barely won the popular vote even if she didn't it would have been very close, but regardless he won because he got the delegates behind him Bernie does not have that yet.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

It works the other way, Trump is the nominee - people aren't enthusiastic about Clinton. Polling show Clinton beating Trump with ease - people decide it's a foregone conclusion before a vote is cast. Suddenly election day low voter turnout leads to a close contest. This scenario also doesn't sound very farfetched

This is ridiculous because no amount of last-minute voter apathy could throw off a national poll average showing a blowout.

 

[RastaMentality]

Let me also be 100% clear in that I will not only vote for Bernie if he becomes the nominee but will also actively campaign for him.

Yes, I definitely would also.

 

[noshten]

This is ridiculous because no amount of last-minute voter apathy could throw off a national poll average showing a blowout.

It's about as ridiculous as the post I was quoting.

 

[Manmademan]

It works the other way, Trump is the nominee - people aren't enthusiastic about Clinton. Polling show Clinton beating Trump with ease - people decide it's a foregone conclusion before a vote is cast. Suddenly election day low voter turnout leads to a close contest. This scenario also doesn't sound very farfetched

This doesn't really work. Trump isn't McCain or Romney. Democrats were mostly ambivalent about those two.

Trump has EXTREMELY HIGH negatives with democratic voters, which will drive turnout. Much like 08 when anti bush sentiment was at all time high you could run a potted plant against Trump and minorities and women would show up in record breaking numbers.

 

[Avon Barksdale]

Trump 33
Cruz 16
Carson 14
Rubio 14
Jeb! 5
Christie 4
Kasich 3

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...nc-islamophobia-helps-fuel-that-strength.html

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

It's about as ridiculous as the post I was quoting.

What is ridiculous about some number of previously split-voting Republicans voting for Hillary over Trump? Regardless of whether it would materially affect the final results?

 

[Retromelon]

I went to ps 197 for the 1st grade. Bernie and I have soemthing in common
Another great post, daniel b

 

[Yellowtail]

It works the other way, Trump is the nominee - people aren't enthusiastic about Clinton. Polling show Clinton beating Trump with ease - people decide it's a foregone conclusion before a vote is cast. Suddenly election day low voter turnout leads to a close contest. This scenario also doesn't sound very farfetched

Untrue. In new Monmouth Iowa poll:

No matter their final choice, 43 percent said they would be enthusiastic and 45 percent said they would be satisfied with Clinton as the Democratic nominee, while 30 percent and 45 percent would be the same for Sanders' potential nomination.

And this is a predominately white state that has had more exposure to Clinton and Sanders than just about anywhere else. Horserace numbers:

Clinton - 55%
Sanders - 33%
O'Malley - 6%

 

[Makai]

I would not have shown up if Jim Webb were the nominee.

 

[Jack Remington]

Liberals are a little too quick on the Trump outrage articles. He's already said crazy things. No need to slander him.

It would really be best if liberals would completely refrain from attacking Trump until at least after Super Tuesday. It bears repeating: we really want Trump to get the nomination.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I would not have shown up if Jim Webb were the nominee.

Are you telling me he didn't have you #AllWebbedUp? At the very least, you managed to #GetChafed, right?

 

[adamsappel]

That's what worries me about a potential Sanders nomination. Republicans have barely even taken notice to Sanders. They don't really have to, plus they have their own problems to deal with. If they get their attack ads in full swing (Socialism! Honeymoon in the USSR!), I don't see how he can still appeal to those in the middle. They'll paint him as something he's not. With Clinton, they can't paint her as someone else since she's been on the national stage forever now. They'll use the same attacks that resonate with their voters that despise Clinton and her favorables will remain unchanged. I don't see that being the case after they get their attacks against Sanders going.

This is when I realized Sanders is unelectable. The young voters, the foreign prognosticators, you just have no idea of the ads that will blanket the airwaves. It would make Daisy, Willie Horton, and 3AM look like models of restraint.

 

[Veritigo_X]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...nc-islamophobia-helps-fuel-that-strength.html

Head to heads aren't much different from what we see from other polls. Carson's collapse is even more apparent since he's even losing to Rubio here.

Jeb 30% v Trump 64%
Carson 37% v Cruz 49%
Carson 43% v Rubio 45%
Carson 41% v Trump 51%
Cruz 48% v Rubio 35%
Cruz 41% v Trump 48%
Rubio 42% v Trump 53%

The Islam and firearm questions (Q20-25) are interesting too, especially when you narrow it down to Trump supporters, though the polling shows these views aren't unique to his supporters.

-67% of his voters support a national database of Muslims in the United States, to only 14% opposed to it.
-62% believe his claims that thousands of Arabs cheered in New Jersey when the World Trade Center collapsed, to only 15% who don't believe that.
-51% want to see the Mosques in the country shut down, to only 16% against that.
-And only 24% of Trump supporters in the state even think Islam should be legal at all in the United States, to 44% who think it shouldn't be.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

It would really be best if liberals would completely refrain from attacking Trump until at least after Super Tuesday. It bears repeating: we really want Trump to get the nomination.

But liberal outrage makes Trump stronger? Ignore him and he might actually go away.

 

[Frank the Great]

Sanders is a terrible candidate. The only reason he is somewhat relevant is because Hilary has no other serious challengers. He's a chronic liar who promises things that sound nice to young lefties but that have 0% chance of ever becoming reality. He's done well to drag Hilary left on some issues and I would certainly vote for him in the general but I'm glad he will never be the nominee.

He's just not presidential material and I am confident that if the GE voters actually see him and learn about him, and the media starts going after him, they would be turned off. He would be an utter disaster of a candidate.

 

[User 406]

It would really be best if liberals would completely refrain from attacking Trump until at least after Super Tuesday. It bears repeating: we really want Trump to get the nomination.

Yeah, all the brown and black people who get harassed, assaulted, and killed over the course of the general election campaign by frenzied Trump fanatics will be thrilled when the election is called for Clinton.

 

[PantherLotus]

1. Paul Ryan only dropping that kinda stuff for 2020.

2. The Bernie Sanders electability argument, again, is nauseating, still.

3. Ted Cruz is nearly the gift to Dems as Trump would be.

4. The best and worst news for the Dems this cycle is that this certainly looks like a foreign policy election.

 

[Stinkles]

I'm not actually telling, that would spoil the mystery.

Greek Cypriot.

 

[Coriolanus]

He's a chronic liar who promises things that sound nice to young lefties but that have 0% chance of ever becoming reality.

If that is a concern to you, for your own sake, dont ever explore hillary's website.

 

[Daniel B·]

I went to ps 197 for the 1st grade. Bernie and I have something in common
Another great post, daniel b

Hey, thanks.

Cross country running was just about the only sport I was reasonably good at (not in Bernie's league), in Secondary School (in U.K.; equivalent of U.S. High School), as I was somewhat uncoordinated. I did have a mean tennis game though, and although hardly text book (swing wise), my golf game showed some promise (in adulthood, I could occasionally produce the goods, of off competition (long) tees and play to single figures (i.e. quite respectable), although my temperament wasn't the best...).

 

[noshten]

Untrue. In new Monmouth Iowa poll:


And this is a predominately white state that has had more exposure to Clinton and Sanders than just about anywhere else. Horserace numbers:

Clinton - 55%
Sanders - 33%
O'Malley - 6%

Yes, we know that 50+ year olds are very enthusiastic about Hillary

 

[NeoXChaos]

Yes, we know that 50+ year olds are very enthusiastic about Hillary

and they vote too unlike his supporters

 

[Jack Remington]

But liberal outrage makes Trump stronger? Ignore him and he might actually go away.

I might be completely wrong here. But people often internalize things they read, even if they won't admit it. I also don't think Trump can win a primary with only a 30% extremist base if he faces a unified establishment opponent. He needs at least some votes from Republicans who are a little less extreme. I'm concerned that if they hear over and over that Trump is an unelectable loon, they might just pull the lever for Rubio, which is the absolute worst thing that could happen.

 

[PhoenixDark]

I wouldn't expect Sanders to do well with minorities but it has little to do with trying. It's not surprising he's not doing well with low information voters, whereas Hillary is in large part due to name recognition/"next up" basis of her campaign. Sanders is not good at introducing himself to these types of voters - or any voters tbh. He rambles, he rants, but ultimately isn't a good candidate. Pedestrian debater, refuses to take true shots at Hillary, and above all is an old man. There's nothing new or exciting about him.

I think many of the exchanges I've had outside of this thread on Sanders really highlight the problem. A lot of black people who agree with him on nearly everything dismiss him or repeat various claims that are simply not true. And when you link them a video of Sanders discussing the impact of hyper policing on minorities from the 1990s they say "oh, I didn't know..." Part of the blame goes on the voter for not putting in any time to learn about candidates, but more blame goes on the candidate for being unable to articulate his positions or explain his credentials.

 

[B-Dubs]

I might be completely wrong here. But people often internalize things they read, even if they won't admit it. I also don't think Trump can win a primary with only a 30% extremist base if he faces a unified establishment opponent. He needs at least some votes from Republicans who are a little less extreme. I'm concerned that if they hear over and over that Trump is an unelectable loon, they might just pull the lever for Rubio, which is the absolute worst thing that could happen.

There's also the school of thought that says people become more steadfast in their beliefs when they are challenged, which we have some studies, kinda sorta, confirming. So all that might just make them dig their heels in and pull that lever for Trump. The fact is we have no idea which it will be until it actually happens.

 

[noshten]

and they vote too unlike his supporters

I was not referencing the fact that they vote/not vote, that's something which will only become apparent during the actual caucus.
I'm referencing the fact that the poll he was quoting had 69% of people over the age of 50. Which I don't believe to be anywhere near representative of what will actually happen in reality.

 

[Cybit]

I might be completely wrong here. But people often internalize things they read, even if they won't admit it. I also don't think Trump can win a primary with only a 30% extremist base if he faces a unified establishment opponent. He needs at least some votes from Republicans who are a little less extreme. I'm concerned that if they hear over and over that Trump is an unelectable loon, they might just pull the lever for Rubio, which is the absolute worst thing that could happen.

He's banking on the general historical fact that Republicans fall into line during the General Election, and will vote for the GOP candidate regardless of anything else. (The old political line about Democrats falling in love, Republicans falling in line). That said - it feels like there was a reversal this year, with Republicans falling in love with Trump, and Democrats falling in line w/ Clinton.

 

[thepotatoman]

It works the other way, Trump is the nominee - people aren't enthusiastic about Clinton. Polling show Clinton beating Trump with ease - people decide it's a foregone conclusion before a vote is cast. Suddenly election day low voter turnout leads to a close contest. This scenario also doesn't sound very farfetched

Typically, people that care enough to know the polling data are also people that care enough to vote.

 

[Daniel B·]

This is when I realized Sanders is unelectable. The young voters, the foreign prognosticators, you just have no idea of the ads that will blanket the airwaves. It would make Daisy, Willie Horton, and 3AM look like models of restraint.

Poppycock!

Bernie's level of popular support is growing stronger by the day (he had 28,000 fired up supporters attending his Portland, Ore rally), and that's despite the press blackout and negative TV coverage.

These supporters will likely dwarf those that will see this "blanket" of negative TV ads, and we are so ready for the challenge .

 

[Frank the Great]

I wouldn't expect Sanders to do well with minorities but it has little to do with trying. It's not surprising he's not doing well with low information voters, whereas Hillary is in large part due to name recognition/"next up" basis of her campaign. Sanders is not good at introducing himself to these types of voters - or any voters tbh. He rambles, he rants, but ultimately isn't a good candidate. Pedestrian debater, refuses to take true shots at Hillary, and above all is an old man. There's nothing new or exciting about him.

I think many of the exchanges I've had outside of this thread on Sanders really highlight the problem. A lot of black people who agree with him on nearly everything dismiss him or repeat various claims that are simply not true. And when you link them a video of Sanders discussing the impact of hyper policing on minorities from the 1990s they say "oh, I didn't know..." Part of the blame goes on the voter for not putting in any time to learn about candidates, but more blame goes on the candidate for being unable to articulate his positions or explain his credentials.

Truth bomb. Quoting for new page.

Sanders is just a terrible candidate.

 

[Basileus777]

Terrible is an exaggeration, a terrible candidate would never have even gotten as far as he has.

 

[Tamanon]

Terrible is an exaggeration, a terrible candidate would never have even gotten as far as he has.

He's gotten just as far as Martin O' Malley