Officerrob
Banned
The Hillary national numbers in that poll are insane
Found benji's favorite subreddit
https://www.reddit.com/r/NAP/
You really think they're going to moderate?
My point is the acceptability of violence and open racism is now a thing. The Rubicon has been crossed. These people always wanted it but they never got it because politicians never were so blatent. Now they are and its what they will demand.
This existential angest about a changing america isn't dying.
I just don't think you guys understood it was to have a lead on the openness of much of this feeling.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reactance_(psychology)Aren't there studies that show that trying to persuade someone out of a position usually backfires and only makes them more entrenched in their beliefs? Which of course, this study group perfectly demonstrates.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxnBSb4OKeU
You guys laugh, but I really think Undecided has a chance to win this whole thing. We'll have to see a head to head match up against Hillary first.
I know the candidate pool is like the menu from the Cheesecake Factory
I think I'm not as worried about it because minorities and vulnerable groups have now recognized that they have to fight back, are better organized and, in some cases, actually can get meaningful changes. It's largely the result of demographic changes but it's having a really big impact in the cultural wars.Found benji's favorite subreddit
https://www.reddit.com/r/NAP/
You really think they're going to moderate?
My point is the acceptability of violence and open racism is now a thing. The Rubicon has been crossed. These people always wanted it but they never got it because politicians never were so blatent. Now they are and its what they will demand.
This existential angest about a changing america isn't dying.
I just don't think you guys understood it was to have a lead on the openness of much of this feeling.
muh bad if old
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxnBSb4OKeU
Anarchism : Market Anarchism ::
Dead Kennedys : This shit
Worst anarchism is worst.
*distilledchutzpah*
A shining endorsement for Marco Rubio from Michigan state senator Ken Horn.
https://twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/674821585589690369
A general analysis of what Obama might be thinking with regards to ISIS.The leading GOP presidential candidates reject that. They believe defeating the Islamic State requires some dramatic, if vaguely defined, new military and ideological exertion. Obama, by contrast, thinks America simply needs to not screw up. That means not being “drawn once more” into an effort to “occupy foreign lands,” thus allowing the Islamic State to use “our presence to draw new recruits.”
Obama is a kind of Fukuyamian. Like Francis Fukuyama, the author of the famed 1989 essay “The End of History,” he believes that powerful, structural forces will lead liberal democracies to triumph over their foes—so long as these democracies don’t do stupid things like persecuting Muslims at home or invading Muslim lands abroad. His Republican opponents, by contrast, believe that powerful and sinister enemies are overwhelming America, either overseas (the Rubio version) or domestically (the Trump version).
More polls!
CBS/NYT National Poll (12/4-12/8)
Trump 35 (+13)
Cruz 16 (+12)
Carson 13 (-13)
Rubio 9 (+1)
Paul 4 (+0)
Bush 3 (-4)
Clinton 52 (+0)
Sanders 32 (-1)
Fox News South Carolina Poll (12/5-12/8)
Donald Trump 35 (without Carson 39)
Ben Carson 15 (without Trump 23)
Ted Cruz 14 (without Trump 24, without Carson 16)
Marco Rubio 14 (without Trump 17, without Carson 16)
Jeb Bush 5 (without Trump 10, without Carson 7)
Chris Christie 2 (without Trump 3, without Carson 2)
Clinton 65
Sanders 21
No One (25 percent):
My most likely scenario is still that no one wins a sufficient number of delegates to claim the nomination. As Nate Silver lays it out, this comes in three different flavors:
(1) No one wins, but someone is close enough that the writing is on the wall;
(2) no one wins, but things get sorted out at the convention;
(3) no one wins, and it is fought out on the convention floor.
I agree with Silver that these are presented in decreasing order of likelihood, and actually put the overall percentages lower than he did (and lower than I did last winter).
The media are powerless.
More polls!
CBS/NYT National Poll (12/4-12/8)
Trump 35 (+13)
Cruz 16 (+12)
Carson 13 (-13)
Rubio 9 (+1)
Paul 4 (+0)
Bush 3 (-4)
Clinton 52 (+0)
Sanders 32 (-1)
Fox News South Carolina Poll (12/5-12/8)
Donald Trump 35 (without Carson 39)
Ben Carson 15 (without Trump 23)
Ted Cruz 14 (without Trump 24, without Carson 16)
Marco Rubio 14 (without Trump 17, without Carson 16)
Jeb Bush 5 (without Trump 10, without Carson 7)
Chris Christie 2 (without Trump 3, without Carson 2)
Clinton 65
Sanders 21
Trump's going to collapse like a soufflé.. any.. moment.. now..
(And I want to watch a SpongeBob marathon now.)
===
Laying Odds on the GOP Presidential Race (RCP)
Jeb 5%
Christie 10%
Cruz 15%
Rubio 16%
Trump 20%
Everyone else is below 5%, save for one other possible outcome, outlined in my favorite passage:
A brokered convention in our lifetime? I'm still skeptical.. but damn, that'd be fun.
Agree with you on Christie. And I think a brokered outcome is quite overvalued while Trump at this point is waaaay undervalued.to the bolded: completely insane. Christie doesn't have anywhere near 10% chance to win the nomination. his polling is negligible everywhere sans new hampshire, where he's somewhere around 5th or 6th place.
And brokered convention being more likely than any single nominee is idiocy, come on now.
Agree with you on Christie. And I think a brokered outcome is quite overvalued while Trump at this point is waaaay undervalued.
If this were any other candidate with Trump's numbers, his probabilities would be sky-high. The media and the party would already be shifting to General Election Mode.
We need a new Trump OT.
Donald Trump |OT| The Man Who Sold the World
There isn't a single Trump thread in OT right now. I guess people got over him.
It started cooling off after new Trump threads started getting locked.There isn't a single Trump thread in OT right now. I guess people got over him.
I keep reading that the establishment think that once the lower polling candidates like kasich and Christie drop out, that either Jeb! or Rubio will consolidate support and pull out wins.
How are they coming to this conclusion? It defies math. If you add up the support for Trump, Cruz and Carson it is well over a majority of voters often clearing in the 60s.
This looks over, especially when Carson drops out.
We'll have one for President-elect Trump on the day after Election Day 2016. I wonder how many OTs we'll get for him through January 2025..We need a new Trump OT.
Donald Trump |OT| The Man Who Sold the World
At this point they're probably hoping the voter screens are a mess. Which is possible. But maybe a fool's hope, too.
oh please oh please go 3rd party Donald!Did somebody say POLLS
From St Leo's:
Florida
National
As a side note, St. Leo's reports to the decimal number. I do not. Everything is rounded up or down (.0-.4 goes down, .5-.9 goes up).
Trump beating the GOP nominee in the three-way contests will never cease being hilarious.
I must admit I've missed these gaudy Clinton leads. Seems like things have been working in her favor lately after a rocky couple of months there.
This needs more discussion. I'm waiting for NH results but this is really bad news for Jeb. His Right to Rise PAC has spent $30m in ads in the early primary places, especially NH which is more than any other PAC. They are furiously trying to take down his competition so it becomes a clear choice between Trump and Jeb....and he loses 4 points nationally and is polling just outside margin of error at 3%? Its not working. He's done.More polls!
CBS/NYT National Poll (12/4-12/8)
Bush 3 (-4)
Fox News South Carolina Poll (12/5-12/8)
Jeb Bush 5 (without Trump 10, without Carson 7)
Lol at the copyright.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxnBSb4OKeU
Anarchism : Market Anarchism ::
Dead Kennedys : This shit
Worst anarchism is worst.
Oh god this is the perfect description of the Republican field.
This needs more discussion. I'm waiting for NH results but this is really bad news for Jeb. His Right to Rise PAC has spent $30m in ads in the early primary places, especially NH which is more than any other PAC. They are furiously trying to take down his competition so it becomes a clear choice between Trump and Jeb....and he loses 4 points nationally and is polling just outside margin of error at 3%? Its not working. He's done.
Jeb's ego won't let him quit.
Dude is entitled as fuck.
53 days until Iowa and five possibilities
Indeed, it increasingly looks like there are five possibilities about how the Republican race shakes out:
Possibility #1: Trump wins one or both of Iowa and New Hampshire, and runs through all of the establishment GOP efforts to stop him on his way to the Republican nomination.
Possibility #2: Cruz wins Iowa, is set for South Carolina, and racks up wins through the March 1 states - and he emerges as the odds-on favorite to be the GOP nominee.
Possibility #3: Despite whoever wins Iowa or New Hampshire, the establishment/acceptable Republican who comes closest in those two states -- Marco Rubio? -- is set up to coalesce the Republicans who are against Trump or Cruz in a winnowed race.
Possibility #4: Rubio wins Iowa and is positioned to put away the GOP race early.
Possibility #5: Cruz wins Iowa, Trump wins New Hampshire, and Rubio (or someone else) stays alive for a three-way grudge match until GOP convention in Cleveland
I dunno. That ego can be a fickle bitch. Remember when he said "Elect Trump. I got better things to do"? I'm sure his ego is bruised enough as it is. Question is how long will he keep lying to his donors.Jeb's ego won't let him quit.
Dude is entitled as fuck.