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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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When are we gonna see more drop outs? Webb and Chafee already bailed out of the Dem side.

Is this some kind of macho bullshit between everyone and Trump? Not wanting to look like a loser to him?
 

Konka

Banned
House Republicans will meet in closed session Monday night, as congressional negotiators and the White House near a two-year budget deal that would boost defense and domestic spending by tens of billions of dollars, and lift the debt ceiling until March 2017.

The ambitious accord, which is being negotiated by top House, Senate and White House officials, would boost defense and nondefense spending by $50 billion next year, and $30 billion the year after, split evenly between defense and nondefense programs. Negotiations are fluid, however, and specifics might change before legislation is filed.

A cap on premium hikes for Medicare Part B beneficiaries — sought by House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) but initially rejected by the White House — would also be included. Medicare Part B covers doctors’ services, outpatient hospital services, and some home health care. The deal under discussion is also expected to address Social Security disability insurance, according to multiple sources.

The new spending would be offset by extending existing measures to contain Medicare and hospital costs, the sources said.


A bill could be filed by Monday night, which could set up a midweek vote.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/congress-budget-deal-white-house-215163#ixzz3phqPnqNO
 

ivysaur12

Banned
PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
Trump's at 31% in our new NC poll, the highest we've found him yet. His 'slump' seems to be confined to Iowa at this point

PublicPolicyPolling
Hillary right around 70% on the first night of our North Carolina poll. Was at 55% on our last Biden-less poll

Wow.
 
When are we gonna see more drop outs? Webb and Chafee already bailed out of the Dem side.

Is this some kind of macho bullshit between everyone and Trump? Not wanting to look like a loser to him?
A lot of republicans I think are still convinced that trump and Carson will flame out and not get the nomination, and that one lucky establishment candidate will be pushed towards the top in the aftermath.. I think many believe it's worth the chance waiting it out to see if they are that candidate
 

ivysaur12

Banned
A lot of republicans I think are still convinced that trump and Carson will flame out and not get the nomination, and that one lucky establishment candidate will be pushed towards the top in the aftermath.. I think many believe it's worth the chance waiting it out to see if they are that candidate

Exactly. They're all convincing themselves they'll be the ones on the rise after the flame out.
 

Crocodile

Member
We literally moved as fast as we could as a country on gay rights, which is unbelievable given how long it took this country to move on civil rights. The speed at which gay rights took hold in America is unprecedented.

The "your son/daughter/other relative/best friend just came out as gay, are you really going to stop loving them?" conundrum probably helped speed things up. Your white child/relative/best friend isn't suddenly going to turn out to be Black, Hispanic, etc. Essentially, it's about how easy it is to identify the "other". That's my hypothesis anyway.
 

HylianTom

Banned
The Bush folks are definitely trying to put a happy face onto their gathering this weekend; maybe I'm off in how I've read this, but the tone of this article seems oddly positive?

Jeb Bush Donors Gather to Hit Reset Button On Campaign

The room erupting into cheers? From how dour things have been portrayed, I just don't see it..

====

And the sheriffs' association just endorsed Edwards today. That's a pretty huge Get for this state's politics.

In addition to this, Angelle and Dardenne's staffers have been endorsing Edwards today as well. Speaks volumes.


===

And Dick Morris thinks that "Hillary would eat Carson alive.". It feels weird to agree with him.
 

pigeon

Banned
The Bush folks are definitely trying to put a happy face onto their gathering this weekend; maybe I'm off in how I've read this, but the tone of this article seems oddly positive?

Jeb Bush Donors Gather to Hit Reset Button On Campaign

The room erupting into cheers? From how dour things have been portrayed, I just don't see it..

Well, they applauded when !Jeb walked in. Showing up is just about the last guaranteed applause moment for a candidate.

They're spinning hard because this is their last chance. If they can get the donors to keep giving they'll stay in it. If they stop donating then Jeb is gone. So they have to make it sound good. But the fact that they have to hold a full-court press to get money indicates how fucked they are right now.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Well, they applauded when !Jeb walked in. Showing up is just about the last guaranteed applause moment for a candidate.

They're spinning hard because this is their last chance. If they can get the donors to keep giving they'll stay in it. If they stop donating then Jeb is gone. So they have to make it sound good. But the fact that they have to hold a full-court press to get money indicates how fucked they are right now.

How much of that has to do with Jeb sucking as a candidate, the current field and the totality of the Republican Party as it stands today compared to when his brother and father ran? Could this Jeb be the nominee in 2000? 2012?
 
The "your son/daughter/other relative/best friend just came out as gay, are you really going to stop loving them?" conundrum probably helped speed things up. Your white child/relative/best friend isn't suddenly going to turn out to be Black, Hispanic, etc. Essentially, it's about how easy it is to identify the "other". That's my hypothesis anyway.

I think that there was a bit of snowball in that more people have come out*, and more and more people know somebody who is openly gay than they might have before. A cycle of more acceptance > more visibly gay people > more acceptance.

* Factoid pulled straight out of my ass, but I'd bet it's true.
 

Makai

Member
As a Catholic I am sympathetic to the feeling that there are a bunch of threads about stuff you conceivably care about that you really just can't post in because there are a lot of people not interested in productive conversation. It's frustrating! But at the same time, like, I understand that the brand is tarnished and I try to engage in conversations about the values rather than the stuff that's just going to end up in conflict.
The brand seems to have completely recovered thanks to the Pope. Virtually every thread about him is full of people saying stuff like, "love this guy." Give it a shot!

I was going to post in that thread, before it got locked, that it's important to talk about policies rather than labels, since "conservative" and "liberal" are pretty different outside of the US. I remember a conversation a while back where somebody claimed to be a libertarian and wanted to shrink government to the minimum necessary agencies. I said "well, what about people needing food to eat tho." It became clear that he was from Australia and when he said minimum necessary agencies he was including a welfare state significantly stronger than the one America currently has. You might put this on me for assuming that a libertarian would be against welfare but frankly it sounds like a vocabulary problem to me.
I have to wonder if party families are real. Does David Cameron have more in common with Obama or Romney? On a policy level he's more similar to Obama, but his views are anchored by the political realities of his country. I bet if the Australian libertarian got naturalized in America, he'd sooner vote for Ron Paul than Obama.
 
Well, they applauded when !Jeb walked in. Showing up is just about the last guaranteed applause moment for a candidate.

They're spinning hard because this is their last chance. If they can get the donors to keep giving they'll stay in it. If they stop donating then Jeb is gone. So they have to make it sound good. But the fact that they have to hold a full-court press to get money indicates how fucked they are right now.

Often these events serve as means to raise expectations. Interestingly the next debate is in a couple days so I'm sure his staff spent time convincing potential donors that it will be a turning point for the campaign. So if he doesn't deliver...

Actually, when he doesn't deliver. You already know he's going to spend most of his time talking about being a conservative governor from Florida. Clearly no one is moved by that experience; nearly everyone on stage is a conservative governor or senator from somewhere. My question: will he attack Rubio and Kasich? His donors probably want him to go after Trump but that's not a good idea.

Prediction: Bush bombs again while the usual suspects (Fiorina, Rubio, Christie, Trump) shine from an entertainment or delivery perspective. Bush stays in the race, loses Iowa and NH, doesn't make it to the March contests.
 

dabig2

Member
Reading through some of the responses here, I have 1 question: Knowing what we do now from the whole southern strategy and how that helped propelled the GOP to power, would it have been a better idea to ignore the civil rights era and not try to enact legislation? Maybe wouldn't have helped McGovern against Nixon in '72 as Nixon was riding that China/"peace with honor" Vietnam leave, but it probably would have stemmed the complete abandonment of the party by its racist members.

Cause, imo, all the bullshit springs from that period. Americans sure loved their medicare, medicaid, social security, <insert socialist agenda here>etc. when it was exclusive to the white majority. So, was the civil rights era worth it? Did progressives aiming for equality damn us for decades?
 

Makai

Member
The other problem is that dogpiles are just the inherent nature of an unbalanced forum, there doesn't even need to be bad intentions for it to happen. Someone posts a minority opinion. The majority of posters disagree with said opinion and that means the majority of people want to make their feelings known even if it's not constructive. You don't need fifty people responding to every single post from the alternative side, it just muddles the thread and makes it impossible for the other person to feel like they can have a real dialogue. But it's hard to argue and even harder to internalize (guilty as charged here) that, "hey I know everyone wants a say in this, but if we limit ourselves to just 2-3 people responding, we'll probably get a more mature and structured dialogue out of this." Nobody wants to think their contribution is irrelevant or unhelpful.
I don't think it's a problem at all. What did you think about our collective rebuke of brainchild? I thought it was wholly justified. I'm glad he brought it up and stuck with it despite failing to persuade anyone. Lots of people explained the nitty gritty details beyond "that's Jim Crow." Even though it appeared to be a one-sided discussion, there were a variety of viewpoints leading to the same conclusion. I'm more certain than ever that I'm on the right side of that issue because of it.
 
Conway still up, 45/40:

http://wkussrc.blogspot.com/2015/10/v-behaviorurldefaultvmlo.html

Man, it's going to be weird when the Democrats have the governor's mansions in Louisiana and Kentucky while the Republicans have Maine and Massachusetts.
Dont get your hopes up...Brownback was losing to his democrat rival at this point too. There will be lot of fear mongering and Obama hating to bring out the faithful GOP voters to elect a god fearing, straight, christian man in charge.
 
How much of that has to do with Jeb sucking as a candidate, the current field and the totality of the Republican Party as it stands today compared to when his brother and father ran? Could this Jeb be the nominee in 2000? 2012?
I'm starting to sympathize with Poppy's tears at Jeb's 1994 gubernatorial defeat. There's no way the Bush family's Plan A could have beaten McCain and Gore.

Thinking of 2000 only makes Jeb's strategy of saving his campaign through winning New Hampshire even more insane. His brother lost by 18 points there, it was the only state to go blue in 2004, and his father nearly get beaten there in 1992 by Buchanan as a sitting president. The state is not Bush Country.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/658687255599521795'
If Bernie's going to beat Clinton it's bc people don't want a 3rd Obama term.' -- Sanders strategist Tad Devine
Hmmmm. I doubt Bernie's new pollster will be happy to hear this.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Reading through some of the responses here, I have 1 question: Knowing what we do now from the whole southern strategy and how that helped propelled the GOP to power, would it have been a better idea to ignore the civil rights era and not try to enact legislation? Maybe wouldn't have helped McGovern against Nixon in '72 as Nixon was riding that China/"peace with honor" Vietnam leave, but it probably would have stemmed the complete abandonment of the party by its racist members.

Cause, imo, all the bullshit springs from that period. Americans sure loved their medicare, medicaid, social security, <insert socialist agenda here>etc. when it was exclusive to the white majority. So, was the civil rights era worth it? Did progressives aiming for equality damn us for decades?

This is a shitty analogy and you should feel bad for offering it as a suggestion.

DOMA as the less bad option that potentially stopped something much worse =! the culmination of years of civil rights work and Southern Strategy.

Dont get your hopes up...Brownback was losing to his democrat rival at this point too. There will be lot of fear mongering and Obama hating to bring out the faithful GOP voters to elect a god fearing, straight, christian man in charge.

I'm ready to Ring In The Bel (Edwards)
 
Reading through some of the responses here, I have 1 question: Knowing what we do now from the whole southern strategy and how that helped propelled the GOP to power, would it have been a better idea to ignore the civil rights era and not try to enact legislation? Maybe wouldn't have helped McGovern against Nixon in '72 as Nixon was riding that China/"peace with honor" Vietnam leave, but it probably would have stemmed the complete abandonment of the party by its racist members.

Cause, imo, all the bullshit springs from that period. Americans sure loved their medicare, medicaid, social security, <insert socialist agenda here>etc. when it was exclusive to the white majority. So, was the civil rights era worth it? Did progressives aiming for equality damn us for decades?

It was worth it.

1) I cannot conceive of the state of things with out Civil Rights laws.

2) What you are suggesting would just kick the can down the road. Racism is a generations-long problem that will take generations more to address. In the meantime, stuff like the Southern Strategy is bound to happen. And it's already starting to fall apart, with the social conservatives and the economic conservatives fighting in the House.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Also, the irony of the Southern Strategy is that it put the Republicans in a potential demographic death spiral that could eventually lead to a Democratic take over of key Southern states.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Also, the irony of the Southern Strategy is that it put the Republicans in a potential demographic death spiral that could eventually lead to a Democratic take over of key Southern states.

It's a pretty good metaphor for the boomers in general, traded the future away due to short sighted greed.
 
I don't think it's a problem at all. What did you think about our collective rebuke of brainchild? I thought it was wholly justified. I'm glad he brought it up and stuck with it despite failing to persuade anyone. Lots of people explained the nitty gritty details beyond "that's Jim Crow." Even though it appeared to be a one-sided discussion, there were a variety of viewpoints leading to the same conclusion. I'm more certain than ever that I'm on the right side of that issue because of it.

I think in more specialized communities like this it's easier for that kind of discussion to happen without being detrimental. We don't move as fast and people understand that they don't have to reply to everyone or that their comment will be replied to.
 
Dont get your hopes up...Brownback was losing to his democrat rival at this point too. There will be lot of fear mongering and Obama hating to bring out the faithful GOP voters to elect a god fearing, straight, christian man in charge.
I think the situation's a little different in Kentucky. They already have a Dem governor and the state party still does very well in local elections.
 

teiresias

Member

I almost would want Biden in the race now, just to see him have try and defend this bullshit to the Democratic primary electorate. I swear, Obama is freaking worthless

[EDIT] Actually, am I reading it wrong or does the article posted by Konka not day anything about entitlement cuts? I'm confused now, the deal in Konkas post doesn't really sound bad, but I'm not reading the details too closely yet.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
I think the situation's a little different in Kentucky. They already have a Dem governor and the state party still does very well in local elections.

Look how well Kim Davis did in 2014.

It's funny how similar the timeline is as well. Can't make this shit up.

Mississippi slowly becoming a swing state would truly be one of my favorite things. Its white population is dropping about ~2-3% every ten years. It's one of the six states where Obama's vote share went up from 2008 to 2012 with no campaigning. It's going to happen.
 

pigeon

Banned
I almost would want Biden in the race now, just to see him have try and defend this bullshit to the Democratic primary electorate. I swear, Obama is freaking worthless

[EDIT] Actually, am I reading it wrong or does the article posted by Konka not day anything about entitlement cuts? I'm confused now, the deal in Konkas post doesn't really sound bad, but I'm not reading the details too closely yet.

The TPM report and the Politico report differ in vital respects. I'm waiting for another report to hopefully verify the details one way or the other.
 

User 406

Banned
Reading through some of the responses here, I have 1 question: Knowing what we do now from the whole southern strategy and how that helped propelled the GOP to power, would it have been a better idea to ignore the civil rights era and not try to enact legislation? Maybe wouldn't have helped McGovern against Nixon in '72 as Nixon was riding that China/"peace with honor" Vietnam leave, but it probably would have stemmed the complete abandonment of the party by its racist members.

Cause, imo, all the bullshit springs from that period. Americans sure loved their medicare, medicaid, social security, <insert socialist agenda here>etc. when it was exclusive to the white majority. So, was the civil rights era worth it? Did progressives aiming for equality damn us for decades?

The analogy really doesn't hold, because the CRA wasn't a measure to placate the persecutors like DOMA was. Either way, if we hadn't passed the CRA, there would have been increasing levels of racial violence, and most likely an eventual apartheid state that would eclipse South Africa's.

And yeah, pretty much all the gains of the New Deal and progressivism that have been eroded since then is due to racist whites being convinced to vote against their interests because black people would start sharing in them.

It was totally worth it.
 
“We’d be very happy to have a straight-out debate on issues that matter to people and confine it to that,” Devine said. “But if they’re going to have a campaign that attacks Bernie on gun safety and implies he engages in sexism, that’s unacceptable. We’re not going to stand for that. We’re not going to sit here and let her attack him. We’re going to have to talk about other things if they do that. If they’re going to engage in this kind of attack, they need to understand we’re not going to stand there and take it.”


Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/...ary-clinton-attacks-2016-215167#ixzz3piTdmwqo

Uh-oh, his fee-fees got hurt.

Sanders walked into that whole "shouting" line with his mouth and foot wide open. That was a really bad exchange from him in the debate. The idea that people won't exploit his foibles is something that his campaign needs to get over.

Also, isn't it interesting that the only thing we're not allowed to shout about is guns? We can shout about the banks. We can shout about Citizens United? We can shout about the billionaires and the millionaires.....but not guns. Never guns.
 
Uh-oh, his fee-fees got hurt.

Sanders walked into that whole "shouting" line with his mouth and foot wide open. That was a really bad exchange from him in the debate. The idea that people won't exploit his foibles is something that his campaign needs to get over.

Also, isn't it interesting that the only thing we're not allowed to shout about is guns? We can shout about the banks. We can shout about Citizens United? We can shout about the billionaires and the millionaires.....but not guns. Never guns.

I read that more as, "don't dish out what you can't take". In other words, "if you wanna go that route, we will, too".

Either way, he should've done that when he had the chance to make a strong first impression. Not after the fact.
 
Sanders' campaign is horrible. Go back and watch Obama's Jefferson Jackson speech in 2007. Obama lit Clinton up on multiple fronts, without mentioning her name. Yet in debates he had no problem confronting her. Sanders reminds me of Tim Pawlenty, too timid to take on the big boss. Maybe his people are concerned about Hillary's nonstop gender card playing (see: shouting accusations). Even still, if Sanders wants to win he's going to have to take her on.

Does anyone honestly think Obama would have defended Clinton the way Sanders did at the debate, with respect to the emails? Obama would have used it to attack the "same old politics of the past," note that people are tired of nonstop scandals that harken back to the 90s, etc etc.
 

Konka

Banned
Sanders' campaign is horrible. Go back and watch Obama's Jefferson Jackson speech in 2007. Obama lit Clinton up on multiple fronts, without mentioning her name. Yet in debates he had no problem confronting her. Sanders reminds me of Tim Pawlenty, too timid to take on the big boss. Maybe his people are concerned about Hillary's nonstop gender card playing (see: shouting accusations). Even still, if Sanders wants to win he's going to have to take her on.

Does anyone honestly think Obama would have defended Clinton the way Sanders did at the debate, with respect to the emails? Obama would have used it to attack the "same old politics of the past," note that people are tired of nonstop scandals that harken back to the 90s, etc etc.

I think it's very debatable whether Obama would have used the same tactics if he was running following 8 years of a Democratic President vs running after Bush.
 
I read that more as, "don't dish out what you can't take". In other words, "if you wanna go that route, we will, too".

Either way, he should've done that when he had the chance to make a strong first impression. Not after the fact.

True. I just question the wisdom of assuming Hillary can't take it. She's taken far worse than Sanders could hope to deliver in her last 26 years.

The issue is I don't really know what Sanders should do here. This is a two person race. He can't hope that someone drops out and he can pick up their support. Hillary is the overwhelming front runner. Attacking her directly is probably not going to work well for him. Running away from Obama is not going to work well for him. On the reverse, if he wants supporters he has to get them from Clinton. There aren't enough undecided voters to make a damn bit of difference. (The curse and blessing of Clinton being so well known). He's making no inroads with people of color, and distancing himself from Obama isn't going to help him at all.

I'm not sure that either makes a huge amount of difference with Biden not getting into the race, but what does he do? Does he go after Clinton, appear negative, tarnish his "Above it all" reputation and still lose? Or, does he take the loss, keep the high ground, and go back to the Senate as a beloved son?
 
Sanders' campaign is horrible. Go back and watch Obama's Jefferson Jackson speech in 2007. Obama lit Clinton up on multiple fronts, without mentioning her name. Yet in debates he had no problem confronting her. Sanders reminds me of Tim Pawlenty, too timid to take on the big boss. Maybe his people are concerned about Hillary's nonstop gender card playing (see: shouting accusations). Even still, if Sanders wants to win he's going to have to take her on.

Does anyone honestly think Obama would have defended Clinton the way Sanders did at the debate, with respect to the emails? Obama would have used it to attack the "same old politics of the past," note that people are tired of nonstop scandals that harken back to the 90s, etc etc.

Frankly, Sanders seems kind of surprised by his own success and now doesn't really know what the hell he's doing.

I think he originally ran just to push Hillary to the left, but then he clearly surpassed his own expectations and started buying (at least to some degree) into the hype suddenly surrounding him. Then I think he lost his nerve during the first debate and is now once again trying to figure out where he goes from here.
 
I think it's very debatable whether Obama would have used the same tactics if he was running following 8 years of a Democratic President vs running after Bush.

Not too much. To beat Hillary he'd have to attack her past of partisanship/scandal/1990s drama/etc. A lot of people simply don't think she's honest. Attacking her solely on her corporate views doesn't make sense.
 
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