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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Yep, Trump attacking him at all tonight was surprising, that's how quiet Republicans have been.

I think the only reason Trump hit him is because Trump can't stand sharing a headline. Seriously, I think that's what happened. He's that kind of dude.
 

GnawtyDog

Banned
I don't know the MSNBC commentators names but one of the guys just said Sanders has run the best campaign of any candidate running this year. I'm not sure I entirely agree but I do think sanders nailed his messaging better than anyone (save maybe trump).

Hard to say Trump had one consistent message with all the disparaging things he says but he's the best by far. Dude has beat the GOP establishment with rhetoric far crazier than "normal". We just saw how a slip up from Rubio cost him BIG. Trump? Dude is almost invincible vs. any backlash for the stupid things he says.
 
Hmm, that's a somewhat interesting point.
What does Sanders do to help down-ballot, were he to become the nominee?
Presumably he makes nice with the DNC. Does he stop calling them establishment?
Does he get a SuperPAC? Does he raise money for the DCCC and DSCC - and from whom? Wall St and other industries remain a no-go?
Does he campaign with down-ballot candidates? Does he stop calling them establishment? Do they even want him to campaign with them?
Does he condone negative campaigning?

Making negative ads against Trump wouldnt be morally reprehensible at least, lol.

I think all these tactical glitches tell you what Sanders intentions were when he decided to run. He wanted to push a more leftish narrative into the spotlight, not so much the presidency.

But, hey, arent most social and political movements spontaneous? :p
 
You really don't think he's gonna pivot and get his fans to support downballot dems? He's said many times that he alone will not be enough.

But right now, he's up against Clinton and he's got to prove himself able to secure the nomination.

Those same fans who are on here talking about primarying Claire McCaskill with a true progressive?
 
Trump would roll over everyone else no problem, he needs Jeb or he'd get bored at the debates. Jeb's the only one left with the balls to take a swing at Trump these days. Man's gotta stay at his fighting weight somehow.
Well the only people that have taken on Ted are Trump and Rubio. I hope that changes this weekend.
 

Tubie

Member
I can't believe how incredibly well the GOP side went tonight.

Tonight showed Rubio really took a nuke full blast from Christie last week, that shit was savage.

At this point I have no idea what's going to happen, but as a liberal I would love either Trump or Cruz as their candidate.
 

Allard

Member
Hmm, that's a somewhat interesting point.
What does Sanders do to help down-ballot, were he to become the nominee?
Presumably he makes nice with the DNC. Does he stop calling them establishment?
Does he get a SuperPAC? Does he raise money for the DCCC and DSCC - and from whom? Wall St and other industries remain a no-go?
Does he campaign with down-ballot candidates? Does he stop calling them establishment? Do they even want him to campaign with them?
Does he condone negative campaigning?

The whole down-vote ballet issue is actually my primary, #1, reason for voting Hilary and vouching for her. This whole revolution Bernie wants cannot possibly happen in the White House. The president doesn't start or push policy, Congress does, white house is the roadblock setup to funnel whether a bill can make the final pass through the siphon (veto proof etc.) he has no actual control over policy that's worth a damn while in the white house, at least not control as far as the route it takes. The revolution he wants to enact is done in the house and senate and if he attacks the dem leadership or his presence at the top of the ticket hurts down ticket house and senate seats either from lack of help or from pure rejection from the overall electorate. He will be lame duck president for his entire tenure should he somehow get elected. I'd rather have a full democratic, veto proof majority in house and senate, then a democrat in the White house it means that much. But considering what the presidents ACTUAL duties are, nominating executive/judicial members, foreign policy and military, the idea of a republican president also scares me shitless at this point. So basically I want a president I feel comfortable performing his actual duties, and I want a president who can actually help get people into congress who I believe are more likely to enact legislation I want.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
I can't believe how incredibly well the GOP side went tonight.

Tonight showed Rubio really took a nuke full blast from Christie last week, that shit was savage.

At this point I have no idea what's going to happen, but as a liberal I would love either Trump or Cruz as their candidate.

Trump could not have asked for a better night. His decisive win gives him that last bit of legitimacy. Long-time republicans have to be freaking the fuck out tonight, especially the neocons.

Frankly, the best day of the year so far for me. Neocons can go fuck themselves.

The polling after the next couple of candidate drop outs will basically show the ending of this race on the GOP side. In particular, what % from Carson and Cruz, and Carly go to Trump. Trump has been careful not to piss off those supporters, and I see the majority going to him. If that is how it plays out, he will be the nominee.
 
In particular, what % from Carson and Cruz, and Carly go to Trump. Trump has been careful not to piss off those supporters, and I see the majority going to him. If that is how it plays out, he will be the nominee.

Cruz isn't dropping out for a few months at least. He might take it to the convention.
 
On a related note, from a quick look 8 of the 18 Democratic gubernatorial seats are up, with three of them currently forecast to flip or as toss ups. So by this time next year they may only control 15 governor's mansions...
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Cruz isn't dropping out for a few months at least.

Yeah, I don't think so now that you mention it.
In such case, the question is what % goes from Carson and Carly to Cruz and Trump.

It was more wishful thinking on my part.
 
Sanders has made some Super Tuesday ad buys in Minnesota, Colorado, Massachusetts, and Oklahoma; basically, the states with the lowest minority populations besides Vermont.

Now that NH is over the remaining Democratic primary electorate is just under half minority voters.

Campaign assumption still seems to be that minorities don't know him, but once they do they'll be for him.

The strategy is banking on winning heavily white states to soften the blow in March and hope that the Clinton campaign stumbles . I also guess he will attempt to be somewhat competitive to minorities .

Seems like a risky and divisive strategy concerning on one hand; the white Americans most likely won't be as liberal as IW and NH.
 

Brinbe

Member
I wouldn't put much in this. Hillary's a tough candidate and the polling nailed it in both races. Let's see how he does in NV and SC which are more diverse/conservative and not right next to his home fucking state lol
 
I can't believe there's been no polling in SC since January 21st, what the fuck, people.

Polling has been horrible this season. There were like 8 polls out of NH and IA every other day, but we haven't had a good picture of Nevada since October, and SC has had like 3 since October as well--with the last one being 3 weeks ago as you said. No idea what's really going on in Super Tuesday states as well.
 
You know, I really thought that if we got a popular neofascist candidate in the United States, it would be at a time of strife.... we're at 4.9% unemployment and are at our lowest crime rate ever.
 
Polling has been horrible this season. There were like 8 polls out of NH and IA every other day, but we haven't had a good picture of Nevada since October, and SC has had like 3 since October as well--with the last one being 3 weeks ago as you said. No idea what's really going on in Super Tuesday states as well.

I can't believe how badly they botched NH. I was hoping for a 12% win for Bernie.
 
No reason for Christie to stay. Tonight was either going to end his campaign or Kasich's; both camped out in NH for months. Crazy that not long ago Christie seemed like The Man. Now he's nothing.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
No reason for Christie to stay. Tonight was either going to end his campaign or Kasich's; both camped out in NH for months. Crazy that not long ago Christie seemed like The Man. Now he's nothing.

Don't worry, he'll either be Trump's VP pick or his AG pick. They've got a deal going.


I saw this on her show the other night, it is one of the best things to come out of the campaign so far.
 
My grandmother's boyfriend can't afford the pills for his cancer treatment and he's just too young for Medicare... :/

It's Lymph node cancer so he's thinking he's dead soon... Never been close at all to him, but this blows.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
My grandmother's boyfriend can't afford the pills for his cancer treatment and he's just too young for Medicare... :/

It's Lymph node cancer so he's thinking he's dead soon... Never been close at all to him, but this blows.

Can he get on Medicaid?

Maybe the company offers some kind of subsidy? I know the company that makes the meds I take will help pay for the deductible if you don't make enough. Well, they do for me anyway since I'm poor.
 
Trump about to get way more delegates from SC while the other candidates get none.

If anyone gets over 50% in Texas, they get 155 delegates... Too bad that's not going to happen, but fun to imagine.
 

Maledict

Member
I didn't realise that Kasichs campaign manager was John Weaver. On one hand that gives me confidence he's going to fail, but on the other hand Weaver is a true piece of shit whom politics would be better off without.

And looks like I was right to say it would be a win if Clinton kept Bernie below a 20% lead. She won't get the same margin in South Carolina I'm afraid.

I have a horrible feeling Democrats are about to do. Jeremy Corbyn to themselves. Whilst obviously Sander's is not as left wing as he is, every aspect of this seems to be the same including his voting coalition, and that constantly surprised people by how active and how energised it was (and how big his margin of victory was).
 

Allard

Member
Bernie got 15 or 13 delegates? Dave Wasserman says he will get 15, NY times has it at 13?
Hillary got 9 + 6 super = 15?

I think there are 'at large' super delegates appropriated to the majority winner so long as one or more candidates breaks the 15% mark. In this case Sanders would earn two additional delegates in addition the ones based on percentage.
 

Jay-Hova

Banned
Even if Hilary wins I don't see how anyone could call her a strong candidate after she's legitimately being challenged by a 74 year old Jewish non traditionally religious socialist white senator from Vermont.
 
Even if Hilary wins I don't see how anyone could call her a strong candidate after she's legitimately being challenged by a 74 year old Jewish non traditionally religious socialist white senator from Vermont.

Democrats keep finding a way to not select Hillary Clinton. Maybe the group knows something together that we don't know individually. Maybe the world has something else in mind for Hillary Clinton.

She's an effective operator, if not an especially gifted campaigner.
 
Well, both the race and the narrative would probably be quite different if SC was the first primary and NV the first caucus. Trump and his Trumpeters would still keep Trumpeting though, because he's a winner and wins everywhere.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Bernie got 15 or 13 delegates? Dave Wasserman says he will get 15, NY times has it at 13?
Hillary got 9 + 6 super = 15?

I think it is 15. He won the state 5/8 and both districts by the same margin. Clinton has 9 plus however many superdelegates.
 
NH non whites (7%):

Clinton 50%
Sanders 49%

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D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Also, in general the NH polling was ass, but a) I beat 538 again and b) Marist has been knocking out of the park, they did almost as well as Selzer in Iowa and were within the margin of error for NH. Impressive performance, hope they do Nevada or SC soon.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Daaaaamn. Among voters who want a trustworthy candidate, Sanders won 94-5. That's just brutal, that's a disgustingly large lead for an issue that central to most voters.
 
For this weeks debates, Clinton going in on Sanders tomorrow no doubt.

And this week's GOP debate will most likely only have 6 people :

Trump
Cruz
Rubio
Ben
Bush
Kasich

Rubio probably will have flashbacks after the last debate
 
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