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[benjipwns]

Eh, not quite. End of the day he isn't a racist

Black people HATE him.

See this one weird trick to ignore their issues.

 

[Elaugaufein]

I don't think the 439 does include the 168? http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R-Alloc.phtml says it doesn't, and they've got full citations for the full Republican Party Constitution you can read. Every state and territory gets 3 delegates per congressional district, 10 for the state itself, and then a top-up of bonus delegates for each state depending on certain criteria. Those bonus delegates are won in the same way as the state delegates. Only the party delegates (the 168) have a free vote, so they're 6.8% of the delegates. For the Democrats, that's 15.0%, so it seems to me like the Democrats are less democratic in that respect.

I meant on infoplease where it specifically says that of the 437 , 168 are RNC members. I think you're right about it being borked though. Assuming a misunderstanding of bonus delegates and that the 168 are included may explain it (given some different assumptions about Alaska's Senator and the GOP loss of a gubernatorial race recently).

 

[Coriolanus]

I'm just saying that there's a huge gulf between what they're doing now and how hard they fought Obama, for example. There's room for them to raise their level a few times before they got that rough.

Ah, i see your point. Do you recollect, however, how negative bams went on hills? That might explain why they handling it with care?

(i dont recall, btw. Is why i'm asking)

See this one weird trick to ignore their issues.

does the trick involve a saxophone? that would explain so much.

 

[benjipwns]

I meant on infoplease where it specifically says that of the 437 , 168 are RNC members. I think you're right about it being borked though. Assuming a misunderstanding of bonus delegates and that the 168 are included may explain it (given some different assumptions about Alaska's Senator and the GOP loss of a gubernatorial race recently).

The Green Papers is a far better source than infoplease.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I meant on infoplease where it specifically says that of the 437 , 168 are RNC members. I think you're right about it being balked though. Assuming a misunderstanding of bonus delegates and that the 168 are included may explain it (given some different assumptions about Alaska's Senator and the GOP loss of a gubernatorial race recently).

Yeah, I'm 99% sure infoplease is wrong then.

In general, though, the American political system is opaque as fuck. It shouldn't be this difficult to find out how your own democracy works. :/

 

[NeoXChaos]

I'm just saying that there's a huge gulf between what they're doing now and how hard they fought Obama, for example. There's room for them to raise their level a few times before they got that rough.

I'd rather neither campaign go there but I do know Hillary is going to be hugging Obama tightly around herself between now and SC.

 

[RustyNails]

Any website with "info" in it belongs to Alex Jones.

Spoiler

in my mind

 

[RastaMentality]

Obama bringing up the smear campaigns people set upon Jefferson and other early presidents to show how the American political game isn't really a new thing. Same with corruption and politicians being beholden to public interests.

Legacy-focused Obama is great Obama.

 

[Elaugaufein]

The Green Papers is a far better source than infoplease.

At this stage I could be convinced my fevered daydreams are a better source than infoplease.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Man, the more I look at the Republican side the more convinced I am Trump has this in the bag. All the states favourable to the Republican establishment are proportional, all the Trump-favourable ones are winner-take-all. The party elite really fucked things up, what were they thinking when they designed this!?

 

[B-Dubs]

Ah, i see your point. Do you recollect, however, how negative bams went on hills? That might explain why they handling it with care?

(i dont recall, btw. Is why i'm asking).

They went pretty HAM on each other at the debates from what I remember. When people look at the debates and say Hillary's been holding back, they're remembering those knockdown, drag-out fights she had against Obama.

I'd rather neither campaign go there but I do know Hillary is going to be hugging Obama tightly around herself between now and SC.

So would I and I do agree with the latter half of your post.

Man, the more I look at the Republican side the more convinced I am Trump has this in the bag. All the states favourable to the Republican establishment are proportional, all the Trump-favourable ones are winner-take-all. The party elite really fucked things up, what were they thinking when they designed this!?

They wanted to make it easier for the establishment to pick their guy. They never saw Trump coming.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

The problem is if they start doing that then it's a signal that the Clintons can take the gloves off and start unloading, and they've got bigger guns. They'll start with Bernie calling for Obama to be primaried in 2012 and go from there.

It's a fight, you're going to get punched in the face eventually. That shouldn't stop you from punching first. That Michelle Alexander article provides a pretty good way for Sanders to contrast himself with Clinton.

I don't think Sanders will win but perhaps he could win a decent amount of black support there.

 

[PBY]

"We’ve had how many—8 debates? In 7.95 of those debates I did very well. I had a bad incident at the beginning of this debate. And it clouded everything else we talked about," he said. "It’s on me. So we’re going to make sure it doesn't happen again."

http://www.politico.com/blogs/south...ubio-debate-performances-219093#ixzz3znNh0d3j

 

[ivysaur12]

Man, the more I look at the Republican side the more convinced I am Trump has this in the bag. All the states favourable to the Republican establishment are proportional, all the Trump-favourable ones are winner-take-all. The party elite really fucked things up, what were they thinking when they designed this!?

Josh Barro is right:

Josh Barro ‏@jbarro
Let's be real.

-Trump more than doubled Kasich's vote.
-Up 16 in SC.
-Up 8 nationally before Rubio implodes.

He's going to be the nominee.

 

[Basileus777]

Man, the more I look at the Republican side the more convinced I am Trump has this in the bag. All the states favourable to the Republican establishment are proportional, all the Trump-favourable ones are winner-take-all. The party elite really fucked things up, what were they thinking when they designed this!?

They tweaked the process to block Cruz type evangelical backed conservatives, not Trump. And it's hard to blame them for failing to foresee him being a threat.

 

[Brinbe]

Can Bernie beat Trump? I think so.

And watching this speech by Obama from Illinois, I'm really gonna miss him. Sad to think what could have been accomplished with a reasonable GOP house/senate.

 

[B-Dubs]

It's a fight, you're going to get punched in the face eventually. That shouldn't stop you from punching first. That Michelle Alexander article provides a pretty good way for Sanders to contrast himself with Clinton.

I don't think Sanders will win but perhaps he could win a decent amount of black support there.

Part of his appeal has been refraining from getting into the sort of fight Clinton and Obama did 8 years ago. If he starts throwing big punches he risks alienating those supporters who liked him because of how he ran his campaign without doing that.

Having said that, I agree and am of the opinion that he should have started actually throwing punches earlier. I feel like it might be too late for it to have any effect, especially against someone who is so used to being hit.

 

[Maledict]

As some people pointed it out in the NH thread I think, many older AAs lived through all of that, but still supported Bill Clinton when it came to his record . Crime exploded during that time so some were okay with Clinton's "tough on crime", but I'm sure plenty weren't. It probably wouldn't look be effective.

Not "some". The Black democratic caucus was heavily in favour of, and supported, Clinton's action on crime. It was a different time and the community wanted the drug dealers that were destroying their neighbourhoods removed.

Of course, in the long run it turned into a disaster - but at the time, it wasn't seen as something that would so hurt the black community as it has become. Precisely the opposite in fact.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Josh Barro is right:

I'm inclined to agree. Like, the only way I see the establishment making a come back is if they consolidate down to one candidate before Super Tuesday. Otherwise they might find that Trump walked away with every single Texan delegate in one day; he only needs to make sure that no other candidate gets more than 20%. That'd basically end things there. I think Trump's odds are hugely undervalued, I wasn't really following the technical side of the race so closely. I might put some money on him.

EDIT: What the fuck you can still get Trump at 3-1! That's like free money! Sanders was right along, socialism redeemed!

 

[RustyNails]

"We’ve had how many—8 debates? In 7.95 of those debates I did very well. I had a bad incident at the beginning of this debate. And it clouded everything else we talked about," he said. "It’s on me. So we’re going to make sure it doesn't happen again."

http://www.politico.com/blogs/south...ubio-debate-performances-219093#ixzz3znNh0d3j

I hope everyone that bet against Trump are ready to wear my Trump Shame Avatar:

B-dubs, whats yours? We should create a final pool of shame avatars for the losers.

 

[Basileus777]

I'm inclined to agree. Like, the only way I see the establishment making a come back is if they consolidate down to one candidate before Super Tuesday. Otherwise they might find that Trump walked away with every single Texan delegate in one day; he only needs to make sure that no other candidate gets more than 20%. That'd basically end things there. I think Trump's odds are hugely undervalued, I wasn't really following the technical side of the race so closely. I might put some money on him.

Huh, how do you figure Cruz fails to get to 20% in Texas?

 

[B-Dubs]

I hope everyone that bet against Trump are ready to wear my Trump Shame Avatar:

B-dubs, whats yours? We should create a final pool of shame avatars for the losers.

I'm at work, but the plan is something along these lines:

With GOD-KING TRUMP written in big letters across the bottom.

I'm inclined to agree. Like, the only way I see the establishment making a come back is if they consolidate down to one candidate before Super Tuesday. Otherwise they might find that Trump walked away with every single Texan delegate in one day; he only needs to make sure that no other candidate gets more than 20%. That'd basically end things there. I think Trump's odds are hugely undervalued, I wasn't really following the technical side of the race so closely. I might put some money on him.

EDIT: What the fuck you can still get Trump at 3-1! That's like free money! Sanders was right along, socialism redeemed!

You should have gotten in when Cerium and I did, I'm turning $50 into $300. I feel so stupid for not making a bigger bet.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Blowing one's cool in the clutch is what PoliGAF is all about!

Sounds like this entire thread should move to Cleveland, then.

 

[User 463088]

I don't think this is true. Mainstream evangelicalism discourages examination of the Bible but it does so in a really weird way. Many evangelicals will tell you that the Bible is literally true in every particular but they don't actually interpret it like this - it's just that they're committed to the Bible being simple and easy to understand such that good faith disagreement isn't possible.

In practice there are official interpretations (which may vary a bit from subculture to subculture) which are asserted to be the clear meaning of the text, backed up in some cases by cherry-picking passages and in others by appealing to a complicated illusion of scholarship which nobody is ever actually examining critically (beliefs about the rapture feature a lot of this). But the rapture stuff is a good example of one way the Bible isn't taken to be literally true - many modern evangelicals take parts of the Bible that were literally about Rome and Jews and the Temple and interpret them as predicting something which is yet to happen. These are people who know what the Bible means and know that it's unambiguous, and that influences how they go about interpreting the actual text.

It depends on which groups you're talking about, though. I'm talking of your Independent, fundamental, pre-millenial KJV only Baptists. They identify as evangelical, but are often a subset of the larger evangelical movement. My high school graduation project was on textual support for verbal plenary inspiration, and how it fit into the evangelical movement. There as schisms, since "evangelical" is pretty much a catch all anymore. When you speak of the Rapture, I think it's something like 60% of evangelicals who believe in a literal Biblical reading of it. (I think most of these are pre-Millenial but I could be wrong on that.). Interestingly, you can get into a really interesting argument over wether or not Christianity can, by it's own religious text, support a non verbal plenary inspiration. It's an argument I've had many times with those who took a more metaphorical interpretation of scripture when I had a far more verbal plenary one.

Adam.. I would pay to see you give a sermon.

I'm good at the on your knees part. Otherwise....

 

[Rafa=FedKilla]

Man, the more I look at the Republican side the more convinced I am Trump has this in the bag. All the states favourable to the Republican establishment are proportional, all the Trump-favourable ones are winner-take-all. The party elite really fucked things up, what were they thinking when they designed this!?

If he double digits South Carolina then it's completely over. Cruz doesn't have a big evangelical advantage over Trump, so out west and up north he will wipe the floor with him. His message should resonate more with SC voters' than Cruz. I think all these poor southern states will be jet fuel to Trump and he melt the establishment.

America Future Fund has taken a 1.5 million ad buy out in SC, declaring him weak on defense and immigration. Said he sided with Bernie Sanders and Obama on defense.

 

[daedalius]

I'm at work, but the plan is something along these lines:

With GOD-KING TRUMP written in big letters across the bottom.

Could Trump be the Emperor of Mankind? This is just one of his many faces over time, the only way to unite the peoples of the world... against him.

 

[ivysaur12]

I'm inclined to agree. Like, the only way I see the establishment making a come back is if they consolidate down to one candidate before Super Tuesday. Otherwise they might find that Trump walked away with every single Texan delegate in one day; he only needs to make sure that no other candidate gets more than 20%. That'd basically end things there. I think Trump's odds are hugely undervalued, I wasn't really following the technical side of the race so closely. I might put some money on him.

EDIT: What the fuck you can still get Trump at 3-1! That's like free money! Sanders was right along, socialism redeemed!

Cruz will do very well in Texas, though. Still don't think it matters.

 

[Coriolanus]

I'm at work, but the plan is something along these lines:

With GOD-KING TRUMP written in big letters across the bottom.

Wait what. Since when does the emprah have chestnut instead of jet black hair? That's hairesy!


(1d4chan is and will always be the best chan)

 

[Allard]

Ah, i see your point. Do you recollect, however, how negative bams went on hills? That might explain why they handling it with care?

(i dont recall, btw. Is why i'm asking)



does the trick involve a saxophone? that would explain so much.

If I am remembering correctly it was the Hilary camp that made the mistake (Specifically not Hilary but Bill Clinton who made a comment that came off racist against Obama when they were showing more frustration with lack of support from the African American community after feeling like they had 'won it' going into the election season) but the first to the 'punch' so to speak came from the Obama campaign and surrogates trying to tie Bill Clinton's poor choice of words against Hilary. They felt insulted by the Obama campaign for making the Clintons out to be racists. To me that was the pivotal point when things got nasty. There is also the War in Iraq and the vote Hilary cast for it. Probably the defining element of Obama's campaign at the time, the only person among them that was 'against' the war and had a record that showed it. He hammered that like it was no tomorrow and it stuck because that was probably the prevailing element in the primary season people talked about the most, the worst part of the financial collapse didnt really hit home till shortly after the primaries were wrapping up.

Actually that brings up another element in this primary season. Make no mistake the people who are trying to get Bernie elected are doing it on a platform, but the platform does not resonate as issue number 1) in the entirety of this election cycle unlike the Iraq war had in 2008. What might be a platform for one democratic person, is not necessarily the number one issue plagueing another. Specifically some find social issues to be much higher priority then simple economics, some people feel directly attacked, either for sexual orientation or color of their skin to the religion they choose. Some are looking for a friend/leader who shows more than simple lip service toward those issues. I don't think Bernie is bad for those issues but it has not been his platform or focus on the campaign trail, whereas Hilary has been stumping on those social inequalities. The fact is there is no one defining platform that takes up everyone's focus. Its part of the reason despite what happened in 2008 most of the African American Population and other ethnic minority groups have been supporting her instead of Bernie but also why Bernie does so well with most of the younger population.

 

[Y2Kev]

I don't see how you DON'T only have like two establishment candidates by Super Tuesday unless bush is a huge sloppy loser and won't drop out after South Carolina.

Kasich going on after getting blitzed in SC will be dubious to me; Christie is already out.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Cruz will do very well in Texas, though. Still don't think it matters.

I can't see Cruz putting up a fight unless he manages to rally the Establishment behind him. He's going to get curbstomped by Trump anywhere that's not religious conservative territory unless the Establishment defacto endorses him and even then I'm not sure it'd help. The RNC must be tearing their hair out right now.

 

[Teggy]

First two questions at the next R debate should be:

"Mr. Cruz, Mr. Trump says you're a pussy. Please comment."

"Mr. Rubio. Some conservatives say that President Obama doesn't know what he's doing. How would you respond to them?"

 

[Macho Madness]

I can't see Cruz putting up a fight unless he manages to rally the Establishment behind him. He's going to get curbstomped by Trump anywhere that's not religious conservative territory unless the Establishment defacto endorses him and even then I'm not sure it'd help. The RNC must be tearing their hair out right now.

Cruz has less establishment support than Trump. Think about that.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

Part of his appeal has been refraining from getting into the sort of fight Clinton and Obama did 8 years ago. If he starts throwing big punches he risks alienating those supporters who liked him because of how he ran his campaign without doing that.

Having said that, I agree and am of the opinion that he should have started actually throwing punches earlier. I feel like it might be too late for it to have any effect, especially against someone who is so used to being hit.

True but at the same time his supporters don't seem nearly as idealistic about this. The anger they've displayed towards Clinton online and in real life suggests they'd be more than willing to go on the attack. It doesn't have to be "negative advertising" or whatever. But a contrast should be made here. Especially with Hillary trotting to Flint to score some political points with black people.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Bernie Sanders raised $5.2 million in the 18 hours after polls closed in NH, per campaign...

.

 

[Veritigo_X]

First two questions at the next R debate should be:

"Mr. Cruz, Mr. Trump says you're a pussy. Please comment."

"Mr. Rubio. Some conservatives say that President Obama doesn't know what he's doing. How would you respond to them?"

Has Cruz made any comment on Trump calling him (but sorta not really) a pussy?

 

[Krowley]

IMO the only way Sanders goes 3rd party is if the dnc gets directly involved in trying to derail his campaign. If he won the popular vote and they tried to fuck him over with super delegates that would probably be enough to make him do it.

 

[dramatis]

Nay, if anything, Hillary is an average to weak candidate for the general election. She has a history tainted by scandals. Hers is not a presidency destined for accomplishment and greatness. Her campaign is poorly managed. She isn't half as entertaining as Donald Trump, she isn't as charismatic as Obama, and she lacks the fortitude of an old jewish socialist going against the candidate that benefits from the most ridiculously stacked deck in recent history.

I mean. You know that was too heavy on the drama when you wrote it, mate.

You know, if I were talking about Hillary, I would talk about Hillary.

To me, the selling of this great enthusiasm looks, in terms of turnout numbers, disappointing. It would be one thing if Bernie won significantly in NH with a great turnout, but instead the record turnout was on the Republican side. I don't know how many of those votes were joke votes for Donald Trump, but I can't help but feel disappointed that what it takes for Americans to get to the polls in 2016 is spectacle and racism. And that for all the talk of excitement and political revolution on the left, the turnout numbers still can't surpass 2008.

It irritates me that this kind of speculation about the general election is then immediately spun into "Bernie is vital" by a guy who makes no disguise of his bias. To me the only thing that can be deemed 'vital' in this election is that any of the Republican candidates cannot be elected, not "Hillary is the one" or "Bernie is the one" or "Must be Trump".

Or maybe I'm just setting the standard too high.

we have work to do Wilsongt. I am PMing you. dramatic remember your thread goes up tomorrow for the WI debate.

I know, I'm on it

Might be lazy though

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I don't see how you DON'T only have like two establishment candidates by Super Tuesday unless bush is a huge sloppy loser and won't drop out after South Carolina.

Kasich going on after getting blitzed in SC will be dubious to me; Christie is already out.

True enough. My only question is why would Bush drop out after South Carolina if Rubio beats him by ~3% of the vote and they both get no delegates?

Kasich will definitely go, but I could see Trump/Cruz/Rubio/Bush being a continuing quartet for long enough to doom the Republican establishment.

 

[benjipwns]

"We’ve had how many—8 debates? In 7.95 of those debates I did very well. I had a bad incident at the beginning of this debate. And it clouded everything else we talked about," he said. "It’s on me. So we’re going to make sure it doesn't happen again."

http://www.politico.com/blogs/south...ubio-debate-performances-219093#ixzz3znNh0d3j

"We’ve had how many—8 debates? In 7.95 of those debates I did very well. I had a bad incident at the beginning of this debate. And it clouded everything else we talked about," he said. "It’s on me. So we’re going to make sure it doesn't happen again."

 

[Elaugaufein]

Cruz has less establishment support than Trump. Think about that.

I know. It's glorious isn't it ?

I do think people should be careful of taking Trump too lightly in the general though, that was the mistake the GOP made and he's devouring them from within.

 

[Teggy]

Has Cruz made any comment on Trump calling him (but sorta not really) a pussy?

He just kind of said "lol Trump". He didn't comment further on the topic of waterboarding.

 

[RoKKeR]

.

Jesus.

 

[HylianTom]

"We’ve had how many—8 debates? In 7.95 of those debates I did very well. I had a bad incident at the beginning of this debate. And it clouded everything else we talked about," he said. "It’s on me. So we’re going to make sure it doesn't happen again."

The robot jokes write themselves (although I could make a joke about Fi from Skyward Sword..)

 

[And_Gignac]

Crying.

 

[Macho Madness]

Crying.

ALARM BELLS!!!!!!

 

[ivysaur12]

That's a very standard fundraising letter.

Jesus guys.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Also, to an extent, turnout is a product of the number of candidates. The more candidates there are, the higher the likelihood there is a candidate who enthuses you. The more people are enthused by at least one candidate, the more people turn up. Therefore, the more candidates, the more people turn up. There were three serious contenders in the 2008 Democratic NH primary and a turnout of 287,557; getting 250,983 from two candidates in 2016 is pretty good. I don't think we'll have a fair turnout comparison until the Super Tuesday states when 2008 also became a two-person race (well, technically Gravel was still in).

 

[RastaMentality]

@AngryBlackLady: I think ppl who are confused about why Black folks are supporting Clinton are failing to recognize that she'd be a maintenance president.

I get the sense that Black folks want to protect Obama's legacy. Clinton would do that. Sanders? Eh.

While Michelle Alexander made a lot of great points in her article, the bottom line is that Sanders is a big risk.

And maybe that's a risk Black folks don't want to take. Because again, not that they have forgiven her 90's era policies or 2008 behavior.

But because protecting Obama is paramount. But what I do know.

https://twitter.com/AngryBlackLady/status/697447136594522112

I don't think black people are that tapped into the Dem
primary that much to actively view the primary this way but she does bring up some good points.

 

[A Human Becoming]

I just realize I've lost nearly 20 pounds since I started canvassing. I'm not sure exactly when I started, probably mid November. My peak walking had to be Sunday when I went for ~9.5 miles. I was also going to the gym three times a week before mid January, but I've still lost 8 pounds the last three weeks.

Now to sit on my ass and gain all that weight back in two months.