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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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C

Coriolanus

Banned
dramatis said:
To me, the selling of this great enthusiasm looks, in terms of turnout numbers, disappointing. It would be one thing if Bernie won significantly in NH with a great turnout, but instead the record turnout was on the Republican side. I don't know how many of those votes were joke votes for Donald Trump, but I can't help but feel disappointed that what it takes for Americans to get to the polls in 2016 is spectacle and racism. And that for all the talk of excitement and political revolution on the left, the turnout numbers still can't surpass 2008.
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I feel that this might be somewhat inevitable, given the far smaller pool of democratic choices available.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Crab said:
True enough. My only question is why would Bush drop out after South Carolina if Rubio beats him by ~3% of the vote and they both get no delegates?

Kasich will definitely go, but I could see Trump/Cruz/Rubio/Bush being a continuing quartet for long enough to doom the Republican establishment.
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Bush will hang in; there's no reason not to at this point. He beat him in NH and he should beat him in SC. Plus, R2R has so much cash. It is insane. Even after all their floppage, they still have like 60 million. They also have Blanche.

I guess the wild card is kasich. Will he really drop after the NEXT primary? That would be weird.
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
Crab said:
Also, to an extent, turnout is a product of the number of candidates. The more candidates there are, the higher the likelihood there is a candidate who enthuses you. The more people are enthused by at least one candidate, the more people turn up. Therefore, the more candidates, the more people turn up. There were three serious contenders in the 2008 Democratic NH primary and a turnout of 287,557; getting 250,983 from two candidates in 2016 is pretty good. I don't think we'll have a fair turnout comparison until the Super Tuesday states when 2008 also became a two-person race (well, technically Gravel was still in).
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The deficit so far in Iowa and NH is too large to be explained away completely by the absence of Edwards and the other no names that were running. If the revolution is real, where are the receipts?
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Bam Bam Baklava said:
The deficit so far in Iowa and NH is too large to be explained away completely by the absence of Edwards and the other no names that were running. If the revolution is real, where are the receipts?
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Actually, Sanders and Clinton between them in '16 got more votes than Obama and Clinton did between them in '08. You can look it up. Edwards was more than the difference is all, plus Richardson also picked up 13,000 voters which is quite significant.

Sanders got more individual votes in New Hampshire than any New Hampshire primary candidate in history!
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
Crab said:
Actually, Sanders and Clinton between them in '16 got more votes than Obama and Clinton did between them in '08. You can look it up. Edwards was more than the difference is all.

Sanders got more individual votes in New Hampshire than any New Hampshire primary candidate in history.
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I was combining the two states. You have a 60k deficit in Iowa and 37k deficit in NH. Which, once again, is fine if you're comparing just some average candidates. But we're talking about revolutions here.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Maybe if Fiorina had self-identified as a feminist and used this rhetoric a bit more, she would've done better:

To young girls and women across the country, I say: do not let others define you. Do not listen to anyone who says you have to vote a certain way or for a certain candidate because you're a woman. That is not feminism. Feminism doesn't shut down conversations or threaten women. It is not about ideology. It is not a weapon to wield against your political opponent. A feminist is a woman who lives the life she chooses and uses all her God-given gifts. And always remember that a leader is not born, but made. Choose leadership.
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D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Y2Kev said:
Bush will hang in; there's no reason not to at this point. He beat him in NH and he should beat him in SC. Plus, R2R has so much cash. It is insane. Even after all their floppage, they still have like 60 million. They also have Blanche.

I guess the wild card is kasich. Will he really drop after the NEXT primary? That would be weird.
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Kasich's familiarity is only 59% amongst likely Republican voters, which is bizarre. Unless he has a miracle recovery by Super Tuesday, I think he knows he can't win, and ultimately he still wants the Republicans to win, so I think he'll fold after the Republican Nevada at the latest.
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
RastaMentality said:
https://twitter.com/AngryBlackLady/status/697447136594522112

I don't think black people are that tapped into the Dem
primary that much to actively view the primary this way but she does bring up some good points.
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I don't even think that's it. Don't mean any disrespect but I think it's moreso a case of low information voters who know Clinton, have no interest in the loud old guy, and that's that. I don't buy the idea that overall that many people are buying the idea of a "maintenance presidency." Low information Sanders voters think he's going to eliminate private insurance and forgive their student debt (some of them are in this very thread). Low information Clinton voters think she's going to reign in Wall St and implement universal pre-k. Everyone expects a unicorn.

This process is dominated by people who aren't paying a whole lot of attention, which is why big names like Clinton (or Bush) work so well. The problem this year is that there's an anti establishment sentiment and both the Clinton and Bush running aren't good politicians. In Clinton's case there is no threat to her getting the nomination, whereas Bush has basically been eliminated out of contention by multiple candidates.

Clinton has been a presence in the black community for decades. Bill Clinton has managed to rebuild his image after the ugly 08 election. Sanders has no cache or history with the community, at least not in the "oh, I've been hearing about that guy for awhile" sense.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Crab said:
Kasich's familiarity is only 59% amongst likely Republican voters, which is bizarre. Unless he has a miracle recovery by Super Tuesday, I think he knows he can't win, and ultimately he still wants the Republicans to win, so I think he'll fold after the Republican Nevada at the latest.
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It's so odd to me that New Hampshire would be worth so little. I feel like he's going to get a big boost after this; I would be surprised if it petered out so fast. He's positioning to stay on until the Midwest states.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
And thus, no woman has done better for the Republican Party's nomination than Margaret Chase Smith, who received 27 votes at the 1964 convention.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Bam Bam Baklava said:
I was combining the two states. You have a 60k deficit in Iowa and 37k deficit in NH. Which, once again, is fine if you're comparing just some average candidates. But we're talking about revolutions here.
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You can't tell in Iowa because we don't have the official vote. Nevertheless, if we assume that state delegates approximate the vote (they don't), Sanders and Clinton in '16 between them got 99.3% of 171,000 votes, which is 169,803; and Obama and Clinton in '08 between them got 67.1% of 237,000 votes, which is 159,027. That seems pretty reasonable increase to me.

I mean obviously this is hypothetical because we don't know how many of the people who voted for non-Obama non-Clinton candidates would have either a) still voted for one of the other two, or b) not voted if their candidate had hypothetically never decided to run, but there you go. That's why I said we won't really know whether turnout is better or worse on the Dem side until Super Tuesday, when it will be 1 on 1, same as it was in '08, and we can compare without structural differences.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Also fuck fiorina. She was clearly the worst human in this whole ordeal. Humorless liar who had no character at all.

coming 4 u Ben Carson
 
A

Abinash117

Member
Maledict said:
Not "some". The Black democratic caucus was heavily in favour of, and supported, Clinton's action on crime. It was a different time and the community wanted the drug dealers that were destroying their neighbourhoods removed.

Of course, in the long run it turned into a disaster - but at the time, it wasn't seen as something that would so hurt the black community as it has become. Precisely the opposite in fact.
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Then it doesn't seem it might not hurt her at least not a lot with the older AAs.


RastaMentality said:
https://twitter.com/AngryBlackLady/status/697447136594522112

I don't think black people are that tapped into the Dem
primary that much to actively view the primary this way but she does bring up some good points.
Click to expand...

Hillary needs more than the maintenance president image I think she will attempt to improve that though, although it may not have anything to do with that.
 
O

Owzers

Member
Fox moderator Martha MacCallum pointed out that, in a previous debate, Fiorina said that "unlike the other woman candidate in this race, I actually love spending time with my husband" — to which Fiorina smiled and pointed at her husband, saying, "He's right there."

"But back in September, in an interview, you said that you would stick only to the record — your record vs. Hillary Clinton's record — and never resort to personal attacks," MacCallum continued. "What changed?"

Fiorina responded that her previous comments were not "a personal attack."

"I was pointing out the fact that Hillary Clinton will do anything to gain and hang on to power. Anything," Fiorina said. "Listen, if my husband did what Bill Clinton did, I would have left him long ago."
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Good riddance.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Muzy72 said:
Is Ben Carson gonna drop out today?
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No. He has projected delegates from Iowa and meets the necessary requirements to be invited to the debates, a.k.a. get the publicity necessary for even more money. He won't drop out until he stops being invited to debates.

The real question is when Gilmore will drop out, because what the fuck.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Crab said:
No. He has projected delegates from Iowa and meets the necessary requirements to be invited to the debates, a.k.a. get the publicity necessary for even more money. He won't drop out until he stops being invited to debates.

The real question is when Gilmore will drop out, because what the fuck.
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Why drop out? He has no campaign so he's not paying anything. His website doesn't even work. Why not just keep going? I guess until he needs to pay fees to get on some ballot somewhere.
 
G

Gruco

Banned
Teggy said:
First two questions at the next R debate should be:

"Mr. Cruz, Mr. Trump says you're a pussy. Please comment."

"Mr. Rubio. Some conservatives say that President Obama doesn't know what he's doing. How would you respond to them?"
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This would seriously make my life complete.
------

Hard for me to see at this point how anyone other than Trump gets a plurality. At the same time, it's still easy to see Trump failing to get a majority.
President Ryan, here we come
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Y2Kev said:
Why drop out? He has no campaign so he's not paying anything. His website doesn't even work. Why not just keep going? I guess until he needs to pay fees to get on some ballot somewhere.
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That's just sad. I wonder how big the market for pity votes is?
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Can I just point out that in New Hampshire Martin O'Malley wasn't even running and he still got 4 times as many votes as Gilmore?
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
Carson is one of the worst candidates I've ever seen. I agree his run is moreso about making money than anything else. Something about him just reeks of a man who is in severe debt due to falling for some idiotic scheme, and has now found a great way to recoup.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Gilmore isn't on the ballot in: Arizona, Texas, Maine, Ohio, Missouri, Illinois, Washington D.C., Northern Mariana Islands, Vermont, Idaho, Oklahoma, Michigan, Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana or Kentucky.

:( guess i'm voting for sanders
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Fuchsdh said:
Missing out on your home state? Ouch. Honestly he wasn't a bad governor, either.
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VA has higher requirements than other states, both Newt and Santorum missed the ballot in 2012 (along with others who later dropped out) so it was just Romney vs. Ron Paul.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
benjipwns said:
VA has higher requirements than other states, both Newt and Santorum missed the ballot in 2012 (along with others who later dropped out) so it was just Romney vs. Ron Paul.
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Out of curiosity, who would you estimate most libertarians voting in the primaries are supporting now Rand Paul dropped out?
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
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