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[Plinko]

"We’ve had how many—8 debates? In 7.95 of those debates I did very well. I had a bad incident at the beginning of this debate. And it clouded everything else we talked about," he said. "It’s on me. So we’re going to make sure it doesn't happen again."

http://www.politico.com/blogs/south...ubio-debate-performances-219093#ixzz3znNh0d3j

What? He still wasn't drawing much support at all until his 3rd-place Iowa finish.

 

[soul creator]

well that's certainly an interesting couple of endorsements, in retrospect

Spoiler

Republicans would tie that old essay Sanders wrote with scary footage of Bill Cosby, haha

 

[Diablos]

Clinton up on Sanders on both PredictWise and PredictIt despite NH really feeling the Bern. Hmm


Hillary banking on the "big" states in March rich with delegates reminds me of her attitude back on 08. They need to be more proactive. They're doing the same thing again. Axelrod and Plouffe pls get in there and shake things up.

 

[Atomic Playboy]

http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article59520724.html

South Carolina always gets dirty for Republicans

How dirty could they possibly get? Trump is on the air every other night saying the most outlandish nonsense and his poll numbers only go up. Kick out all the Mexicans and make them build a wall so they can't get back in! Ban all the Muslims! Megyn Kelly is on her period! Numbers constantly climb. I mean, unless they can convince people that he's actually Hillary Clinton in a bad wig and spray tan, what damage can they possibly do?

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Clinton up on Sanders on both PredictWise and PredictIt despite NH really feeling the Bern. Hmm b

Hillary banking on the "big" states in March rich with delegates reminds me of her attitude back on 08. They need tone more proactive. They're doing the same thing again. Axelrod and Plouffe pls get in there and shake things up.

PredictWise and PredictIt are both too small as markets to give reliable predictions. Just use Betfair - it handles about 870 times as many trades per day on the Democratic nomination as PredictWise and PredictIt do. Sanders went from 9/2 to 7/2 after winning New Hampshire, which is about a 3.5% bump. Currently, he's at 21.8% to win the nomination in decimalized weighted odds (Clinton obviously being at 78.2%).

 

[tmarg]

Yeah, I don't know how you attack Trump. His supporters don't give a fuck.

 

[gutter_trash]

Yeah, I don't know how you attack Trump. His supporters don't give a fuck.

it actually boosts them

 

[RastaMentality]

Bill Kristol's amazing prediction from 6 days ago:

@BillKristol: NH prediction, 5 days out: Rubio 25, Cruz 22, Trump 19, Kasich 17, others single digits. #NoGutsNoGlory

 

[Y2Kev]

I really dislike Carly fiorina. Lol.

Remember when she kept saying randomly

WE MUST TAKE OUR COUNTRY BACK

 

[Atomic Playboy]

Bill Kristol's amazing prediction from 6 days ago:

In fairness, that was pre-debate, so Rubio's meltdown had not yet begun. But apart from that, that was a fairly terrible prediction.

 

[benjipwns]

Out of curiosity, who would you estimate most libertarians voting in the primaries are supporting now Rand Paul dropped out?

From my tea leaves readings, voting libertarians were optimistic about Rand as a majority, but since decamped into the other minority groups that existed as Rand disappointed.

1. Ted Cruz (paleos)
2. Donald Trump (paleos)
3. Bernie Sanders (cosmos)
4. Wait for the LP nominee. (Gary Johnson most likely.)

I myself was considering a Rand vote if he was still around, then Sanders, and then Gilmore but he's not on the ballot so back to Sanders.

I do not vote for Republicans or Democrats in the general under any circumstances. (Now that the one local GOPer I supported for other reasons has retired.)

I really dislike Carly fiorina. Lol.

Remember when she kept saying randomly

WE MUST TAKE OUR COUNTRY BACK

Remember when she in multiple debates tried to take the high ground talking about her daughter who died from marijuana.

Kinda wish Rand attended that lower tier debate and just did a "fuck it" moment and lit into her like Trump did when she tried to play the HP card against him.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

You can't tell in Iowa because we don't have the official vote. Nevertheless, if we assume that state delegates approximate the vote (they don't), Sanders and Clinton in '16 between them got 99.3% of 171,000 votes, which is 169,803; and Obama and Clinton in '08 between them got 67.1% of 237,000 votes, which is 159,027. That seems pretty reasonable increase to me.

I mean obviously this is hypothetical because we don't know how many of the people who voted for non-Obama non-Clinton candidates would have either a) still voted for one of the other two, or b) not voted if their candidate had hypothetically never decided to run, but there you go. That's why I said we won't really know whether turnout is better or worse on the Dem side until Super Tuesday, when it will be 1 on 1, same as it was in '08, and we can compare without structural differences.

So when you look at what Sanders is hoping to achieve and you see these numbers, you have zero concerns over them?

 

[benjipwns]

How dirty could they possibly get? Trump is on the air every other night saying the most outlandish nonsense and his poll numbers only go up. Kick out all the Mexicans and make them build a wall so they can't get back in! Ban all the Muslims! Megyn Kelly is on her period! Numbers constantly climb. I mean, unless they can convince people that he's actually Hillary Clinton in a bad wig and spray tan, what damage can they possibly do?

That's not dirty between the candidates though.

From 2000 for example:

Allegations were made that Karl Rove was responsible for a South Carolina push poll that used racist innuendo intended to undermine support for McCain: "Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for John McCain for president if you knew he had fathered an illegitimate black child?"[2] McCain campaign manager Richard Davis said he "had no idea who had made those calls, who paid for them, or how many were made," but in the 2004 film Bush's Brain, John Weaver, political director for McCain's 2000 campaign bid, stated, "I believe I know where that decision was made; it was at the top of the Bush campaign." Rove has continually denied any such involvement. The existence of such a poll is disputed since no recording of the poll has ever been documented (about 20% of robocalls are usually recorded by answering machines).

McCain was pissed as fuck for like a year.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Oklahoma

Trump 30
Cruz 25
Rubio 21

Clinton 42
Sanders 28

This is one of the Super Tuesday states where Sanders made a buy, including Colorado, Minnesota and Massachusetts.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Oklahoma

Trump 30
Cruz 25
Rubio 21

Clinton 42
Sanders 28

This is one of the Super Tuesday states where Sanders made a buy, including Colorado, Minnesota and Massachusetts.

Why would you conduct a poll so that it finishes on the day of another primary? Like, what's the point! It's outdated before it's even released. Who pays for that?

 

[cartoon_soldier]

It's all fine and dandy to hammer Sanders record on race based issues but Hillary needs to find a better message too.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

So when you look at what Sanders is hoping to achieve and you see these numbers, you have zero concerns over them?

I don't know until Super Tuesday. Largely speaking, no concerns yet.

 

[kirblar]

Why would you conduct a poll so that it finishes on the day of another primary? Like, what's the point! It's outdated before it's even released. Who pays for that?

Having a baseline number before the other primaries affect things is a good thing.

 

[Bowdz]

Bill Kristol's amazing prediction from 6 days ago:

Holding true to the axiom that whatever Kristol predicts, the opposite will happen.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

I bet next week we hear Hillary has hired Mark Penn back or something

 

[NeoXChaos]

I bet next week we hear Hillary has hired Mark Penn back or something

Mark Penn is staying right where he is.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Having a baseline number before the other primaries affect things is a good thing.

What, for the next Oklahoma poll? They're not exactly frequent. Like, if it was SC fair point...

Talking of which, I want Nevada polling. ;_; plz poll Nevada Marist plz. Also post-Iowa/NH SC polling.

 

[NeoXChaos]

if Republicans win can they nuke filibuster and pass bills through reconciliation?

 

[Tarkus]

Trump says he would choose a politician as VP and would love to see Bloomberg run. He would hurt Dems more.

Live on Cavuto

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Trump says he would choose a politician as VP and would love to see Bloomberg run. He would hurt Dems more.

Live on Cavuto

He's right, though. Like, I don't get this Bloomberg stuff. Bloomberg would lose regardless of who the two other candidates were and all it would do is harm the Dems, which Bloomberg is closer to. Just seems strange.

 

[Bronx-Man]

So all that's left now is:
Trump
Cruz
Marcosoft
Jeb?
Kaisch
Carson
Gilmore

I'm not really sure who the next one on the chopping block is. Probably Carson.

 

[tmarg]

Trump says he would choose a politician as VP and would love to see Bloomberg run. He would hurt Dems more.

Live on Cavuto

Well, he would be more likely to siphon voters who aren't bat shit crazy.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Okay, let's do this then GAF: predictions for who drops out first: Kasich, Gilmore, Carson or Other.

I'm going Kasich.

 

[Makai]

Fiorina drops out first

Edit: wait, did she already do it?

 

[B-Dubs]

He's right, though. Like, I don't get this Bloomberg stuff. Bloomberg would lose regardless of who the two other candidates were and all it would do is harm the Dems, which Bloomberg is closer to. Just seems strange.

All he needs to do is win a single electoral vote and make sure no one gets to 270 and he wins.

Bloomberg is pretty good at positioning himself to win, even when it looks like he should lose. I've seen it first hand, you cannot underestimate him.

 

[Tarkus]

Okay, let's do this then GAF: predictions for who drops out first: Kasich, Gilmore, Carson or Other.

I'm going Kasich.

Easy. Carson will drop very very soon

 

[QuiteWhittle]

Okay, let's do this then GAF: predictions for who drops out first: Kasich, Gilmore, Carson or Other.

I'm going Kasich.

Carson will not stay in past SC.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

All he needs to do is win a single electoral vote and make sure no one gets to 270 and he wins.

Bloomberg is pretty good at positioning himself to win, even when it looks like he should lose. I've seen it first hand, you cannot underestimate him.

To make sure that nobody gets to 270 he needs to win more than a single electoral vote. Also, the House would back Trump over Bloomberg. They're not going to jeopardize their seats when Trump's voters turn up at the next primaries.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Carson will not stay in past SC.

Carson will stay in as long as his MLM election campaign keeps luring in new suckers errrr contributors.

 

[Veritigo_X]

Christie is officially out. As if his speech yesterday didn't spell this out already...

Okay, let's do this then GAF: predictions for who drops out first: Kasich, Gilmore, Carson or Other.

I'm going Kasich.

Going with Kasich too. He's got like no money left and no established infrastructure in any other state. I doubt a distant second place finish is going to make the donations roll in.

 

[Basileus777]

Okay, let's do this then GAF: predictions for who drops out first: Kasich, Gilmore, Carson or Other.

I'm going Kasich.

Carson. Kasich is going to make it to Super Tuesday.

 

[B-Dubs]

To make sure that nobody gets to 270 he needs to win more than a single electoral vote. Also, the House would back Trump over Bloomberg. They're not going to jeopardize their seats when Trump's voters turn up at the next primaries.

No they won't. Trump scares the ever-loving-shit out of the establishment. They've been in a panic for a reason, no one wants him in the oval. Given the chance they would absolutely stab him in the back. They either want someone they can control or someone they can trust won't start WW3, Trump doesn't fit the bill.

I know he'd need to win more than one vote, I'm just pointing out that if he were in Bloomberg would have a much different looking path to the presidency than anyone else and underestimating him is a foolish move. He never should have won that 3rd term, the city practically revolted with he got the law changed, and yet he won anyway.

 

[tmarg]

To make sure that nobody gets to 270 he needs to win more than a single electoral vote. Also, the House would back Trump over Bloomberg. They're not going to jeopardize their seats when Trump's voters turn up at the next primaries.

At some point they are going to have to alienate Trump's voters, or else they are going to control the party for the foreseeable future. That's what makes this primary fun to watch.

 

[TangoAlphaLima]

Okay, let's do this then GAF: predictions for who drops out first: Kasich, Gilmore, Carson or Other.

I'm going Kasich.

Why would Kasich drop out anytime soon? He took 2nd in N.H. Are you expecting him to bomb in S.C.? Polls haven't been kind to him, but they're old.

I think Carson is out by the end of the day.

 

[Plinko]

Trump says he would choose a politician as VP and would love to see Bloomberg run. He would hurt Dems more.

Live on Cavuto

As I mentioned back in summer (and was subsequently ridiculed)--don't be surprised if he picks Carson as VP.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

No they won't. Trump scares the ever-loving-shit out of the establishment. They've been in a panic for a reason, no one wants him in the oval. Given the chance they would absolutely stab him in the back. They either want someone they can control or someone they can trust won't start WW3, Trump doesn't fit the bill.

I know he'd need to win more than one vote, I'm just pointing out that if he were in Bloomberg would have a much different looking path to the presidency than anyone else and underestimating him is a foolish move. He never should have won that 3rd term, the city practically revolted with he got the law changed, and yet he won anyway.

If Trump wins the Republican nomination, the presidential election is brokered, and House Republicans still do not vote for him, their asses will be primaried so hard you'd be looking at an all-new Republican line-up in the Trump image. Republican leaders may not like Trump, but they love their jobs.

 

[Makai]

As I mentioned back in summer (and was subsequently ridiculed)--don't be surprised if he picks Carson as VP.

Nah, Carson is HHS secretary. VP is going to be a Senator.

 

[Tarkus]

As I mentioned back in summer (and was subsequently ridiculed)--don't be surprised if he picks Carson as VP.

Nah, Carson is HHS secretary. VP is going to be a Senator.

He was adamant about having a seasoned politician since he's a businessman.

 

[Veritigo_X]

Going by this metric, Rubio will be the next to drop out.

Sean Gallitz @seangallitz
Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul - all candidates I covered extensively during 2016 race that are now out

https://twitter.com/seangallitz/status/697533637223325696

 

[Deleted member 231381]

He was adamant about having a seasoned politician since he's a businessman.

Trump-Clinton 2016

 

[B-Dubs]

If Trump wins the Republican nomination, the presidential election is brokered, and House Republicans still do not vote for him, their asses will be primaried so hard you'd be looking at an all-new Republican line-up in the Trump image. Republican leaders may not like Trump, but they love their jobs.

You think the Dems would vote lock-step for Bernie given a chance to keep Trump out of the oval? There'd be a deal between the sane members of the GOP, those who are in safe seats, and the Dems to keep him out.

If we do get a brokered election, all the rules go out the window. We're gonna see wheeling and dealing like you've never seen.

He was adamant about having a seasoned politician since he's a businessman.

It's gonna be Christie. They have a similar temperament and seem to get along. Plus they've totally got that deal going.

 

[dramatis]

Nah, Carson is HHS secretary. VP is going to be a Senator.

We picking Trump's cabinet already?

 

[Deleted member 231381]

You think the Dems would vote lock-step for Bernie given a chance to keep Trump out of the oval? There'd be a deal between the sane members of the GOP, those who are in safe seats, and the Dems to keep him out.

If we do get a brokered election, all the rules go out the window. We're gonna see wheeling and dealing like you've never seen.

Nobody is in a safe seat from primaries. That's the whole point of primaries.

 

[Makai]

Won't have a supermajority in Senate, so he needs a Senator to help him make deals.

 

[Coriolanus]

No they won't. Trump scares the ever-loving-shit out of the establishment. They've been in a panic for a reason, no one wants him in the oval. Given the chance they would absolutely stab him in the back. They either want someone they can control or someone they can trust won't start WW3, Trump doesn't fit the bill.

Pre-Cantor you'd most likely be correct, mate. Post-Cantor, and when even the Turtle had to fight hard to stay around? Unlikely.

I mean, if they going backstab on trump, the ideal scenario would be members of congress stealth supporting a dem president during the general, since that would continue to make their job significantly easier/safer due to dem fatigue and all.