D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
That's... a really good point I forgot entirely, thank you.
In that case I don't expect any non-Trump/Cruz candidate to take a single delegate.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada
- Thread starter Makai
- Start date
- Status
That's... a really good point I forgot entirely, thank you.
In that case I don't expect any non-Trump/Cruz candidate to take a single delegate.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Trump is an atheist with foreign policy ideas that consist of "we're going to commit a lot of war crimes."
I think America is okay with Trump's foreign policy though.
Trump isn't an atheist tho
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Sanders isn't an atheist. He's a non-denominational Jew.
Sanders is an atheist in the sense that he's said the magic words that can be portrayed as such.
benjipwns
Banned
No, South Carolina is WTA by district and statewide.
The 10% threshold only applied to New Hampshire. (And will to Kansas and Maine.)
RustyNails
Member
How do you think he will respond when one of the questions inevitably ask him if he believes the bible to be the lord's word?
But if he admits it then it doesn't become an issue!!
Abinash117
Member
Someone with a higher favorability rating is going to do better in match ups with someone that doesn't have it has much. Ben Carson is slightly better or is as competitive when it comes to match ups with Clinton. It can also be the case that sometimes someone that isn't that well known, is going to have better favorability ratings .
According to Gallup( at the beginning at December ) Bernie does not have a higher familiar rating than Clinton. http://www.gallup.com/poll/187607/donald-trump-known-not-liked.aspx
Macho Madness
Member
Christie officially out according to AP
Retromelon
Member
cartoon_soldier
Member
Yes, also the current exposure to Sanders people have is, oh look he is doing so well. Raising lots of money, lots of fans, etc. That exposure you get from being in GE is much different.
Noooo stay in New Hampshire please
Suicide bomb indeed.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Yeah, prodigy pointed that out. I just looked it up now - there's 27 for winning the state and 3 for every district win. Considering that, I'd be totally unsurprised if Trump swept the state.
benjipwns
Banned
two point bump in the polls
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
I really needed that right now.
Daaaw
theprodigy
Member
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Gosh, I wonder who is being selective with the polls now?
http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/188957/voting-begins-sanders-popular-clinton-dems.aspx
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
that was a typo, apologies
Noooo I wanted him to destroy Rubio some more. Nobody on that stage was as effective as him. He did what bush failed to do. Take it to Rubio.
Anderson: "Mr. Sanders, 83% of the American population believes the Bible is the Word of God. What do you say to those Americans, and your opponent on the Republican ticket, that feel you don't hold the same beliefs in God?"
Sanders: "Anderson, I don't begrudge anyone what they want to believe. Believe it! Do what you will. In fact, I think the Bible has a great deal to teach us about modern issues. When those Pharaohs were hoarding all that treasure and wealth and beating on the downtrodden Jews, what did the Jews do Anderson? What did they do? Revolution Anderson . . . REVOLUTION! Maybe with a little help from God . . . maybe not . . . but it was a revolution Anderson . . . over income inequality. Now about those bankers in Egypt . . ."
Sanders: "Anderson, I don't begrudge anyone what they want to believe. Believe it! Do what you will. In fact, I think the Bible has a great deal to teach us about modern issues. When those Pharaohs were hoarding all that treasure and wealth and beating on the downtrodden Jews, what did the Jews do Anderson? What did they do? Revolution Anderson . . . REVOLUTION! Maybe with a little help from God . . . maybe not . . . but it was a revolution Anderson . . . over income inequality. Now about those bankers in Egypt . . ."
Lol no, but he says the magic words.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Presumably the same way Kennedy did, given Catholics aren't scripturalist.
Keep in mind that New Hampshire is an open primary where independents can vote for either side. Many anticipated a strong preference for the GOP ticket as it would make more difference than voting one way or the other in a clear Sanders win.
This was likely the reason why so many of the GOP candidates wound up in the running behind Trump.
As for Iowa, it is a traditionally right leaning state with a very strong evangelical right that shows up in primaries. It isn't representative of the nation as a whole and other than being first has basically zero real relevance in selecting a candidate.
If Rubio and Bush continue to squeak into the double digits they aren't going anywhere. Same for Kasich and Christie. The Republican party is heading towards a brokered convention and these guys will get to take their delegates with them in such an event. That is HUGE bargaining power.
For example, consider this possible strategy: One of Rubio or Kasich winds up a close 3rd to Trump and Cruz, all together holding about 2/3rds of the delegates with the other 1/3rd divided between the other candidates. The winner then could form a convention coalition with the other candidates by: making the lower delegate winner of Rubio/Kasich the VP, promising Christie the first Supreme Court seat that opens, offering Carson either Surgeon General or Sec. of HHS, etc.. Jeb Bush would toe the party line and gladly walk off into the sunset being remembered for a "selfless act" in blocking Trump and Cruz. Then they would composite enough delegates together to nullify either of Trump or Cruz and continue to run off ballots until everyone falls in line.
It might result in Trump running as a 3rd party candidate, but then they also might be able to drag Bloomberg in making it a four horse race with an independent siphoning away at each party. Great for the GOP as if no one hits 270 they get to pick from the top three finishers themselves in the House and Senate.
Fenderputty
Banned
I thought this same thing. Sanders revolution resulted in less turnout than 2008, but the repubs came out in force and improved upon 2012 turnout. At least that's what I remember reading.
that sounds just like Bernie..is this real or you made it up?
Ogrekiller
Member
Cherry picking much? From the article:
Clinton does still maintain the upper hand in overall familiarity with Democrats. For the most recent two-week rolling average ending Jan. 31, 93% of Democratic adults know Clinton well enough to have an opinion about her, while 75% of Democrats know Sanders.
I'm becoming troubled that there's an "after Trump, us" undercurrent to the conversation. All this talk about lesser evils and taking the ball home, as it were, ignores the state, governor, and down ticket races, all of which are varying shades of gray. Have people looked at their mayors, councilmen, and state representatives, many of whom are compromised ideologically based on local issues? You cannot be represented by a hypothetical interest group which heretofore has never been elected and apparently has no organization or local presence.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Except wait, I must be misremembering history. Kennedy can't possibly have been elected because polls at the time consistently found Americans wouldn't vote for a Catholic. Apologies, y'all.
Everything I know about Bernie's speech pattern I learned from Larry David.
RustyNails
Member
Catholics still worship a god, you know.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
And? 49% of Democrats find Clinton favourable; 93% know her. 53% of Democrats find Sanders favourable; 75% know him (this is very low compared to most other pollsters, btw; I find it somewhat suspicious but whatever - most of the other pollsters have it in the mid-to-high 80s by now). Like, Sanders is doing better despite having less to work with!
This was Bern's voice in my head
What? What does this even mean? Pretty sure every Catholic I know (because I was unfortunately raised as one) gets pretty miffed if you don't believe the bible as THE TROOF.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
The South Carolina primary actually has a clause whereby delegates can't vote for anyone except the person who won them, unless that person has dropped out, in which case they must vote for the person who take 2nd. I didn't know this until just now, but it's right there in the rules. Does anyone know how many of the other Rep primaries do this? It can't be many or brokered conventions wouldn't be possible/solveable.
Formal Catholic doctrine do not believe the bible is the literal, unchanged word of God. Divinely inspired yes - but Catholic doctrine is not the same as evangelical.
Now, Catholiscism is a broad church and most people in it don't follow all it's teachings one way or the other, but the formal stance of the church isn't to believe in a 6000 year old earth and the events of Genesis, for example.
benjipwns
Banned
He did kinda go out and gave a speech trying to assure people he wasn't a tool of the Pope.
He was actually a tool of the Jewish Bankers who actually controlled the Capitalist system and was assassinated by a patsy set up by those same bankers (who were Jewish) right when he was about to undermine Communism for good, thankfully LBJ was more amenable to harming the country (on orders of the bankers, who were Jewish) through the Great Society to let the Soviets catch up. On the orders of the bankers. The Jewish ones.
TheLaughingStock
Member
If robots turn out to be as efficient as you claim, then productivity should shoot through the roof rather than being currently forecasted in the dumps. Also, we won't have to worry about the population aging because society will easily be able to handle the burden like it's done in the past when the dependency ratio was higher. You know because the robots are that good and will raise living standards with ease.
This is the literal opposite of every catholic I know.
No idea but you're right that it can't be too many. People bitch about super delegates on the democratic side but they exist to prevent a brokered convention, the GOP hasn't installed something similar because they have historically toed the line pretty consistently even in primaries. Their nomination process is not designed for this kind of chaos.
You know a bunch of weird Catholics.
Abinash117
Member
Bahaha, did even read what your own link? I was talking about familiarity .
You still prove my point and helped my argument as it is currently that
Are you stealthy saying I'm right on purpose?
RustyNails
Member
Literal word of god vs inspired word of god is still a word of god. Bernie has to reject or accept.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
You can't know many Catholics, then. The official church stance is that the Bible is divinely inspired but written by people who were fallible and also subject to misinterpretations if the layman attempts to follow it directly in any case. Hence,
Vatican II said:
The solution is for the layman to follow the teachings of the clergy who have dedicated their lives to understanding and interpreting the Bible fully. Hence why the Pope embraces evolution and the like.
If Trump dominates South Carolina, he's on track to winning the nomination.
The GOP plan for beating Trump is basically to assume that the polls are not correct and that people will change their minds because Trump is Trump.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked