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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Watching Ivanka tear clueless celebrities new assholes in the boardroom is almost enough to make me swear a loyalty oath.

God, she would be vicious with our enemies, and disciplining in her love for us.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Black Mamba said:
eh, I've always argued Bernie has a chance. I said long ago if he can win Iowa and NH it would be legit, and while he didn't win Iowa is was essentially a tie.

I never underestimate the power of the media to shape things. I mean, if this was 1980, no way Bernie could win (I mean in terms of media consumption, not politics). But in this new insta-media world, things can change on a dime. just ask Rubio.

The only thing I'm truly sure of is Hillary beating Jeb! and Carson (okay the carson one true for Bernie as well). Everyone else in the race can still win (except Gilmore and Carson) given the right circumstances.

But I think Bernie is still at best a 1 in 5 shot.
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Even if the media gets its horserace, that will not make the coalition Hillary has turn on a dime. Clintons and Obama built it over years. I read how Obama took SC block by block, barbershop by barbershop in particularly AA neighborhoods in various cities. Media being media has very less likely effect on turning such "retail politics" in a week or two. We were always headed this way: Sanders going to blow his load in NH and then Hillary sweeps SEC.

Re: RuBo, the media didn't cause him to drop from his perch as much as the jittery GOP voters did who are still very frantic about their mainstream candidate. Every move is magnified no doubt, but watching reports it seems like his backers and donors were furious with his performance and that anxiety spread like wildfire. He screwed up very bad amd didn't help himself in the next 72 hours at all and even repeated the same mistake.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
So apparently NH (GOP) doesn't have any unbound delegates.

The Republican National Committee has a more rigid interpretation of Rule 16(a)(1) and its effect on the binding of the three party delegates when such a binding process is not specified on the state level. In a January 29 memo to RNC members, the RNC general counsel's office, citing both Rule 16(a)(1) and the November call to the 2016 convention, detailed the binding of party delegates in those states. In a state where the allocation of party delegates is not specified, those delegates are to be treated as at-large delegates and allocated in a manner consistent with the allocation of that subset of delegates.

In New Hampshire, then, the party delegates are lumped in with the full allotment of delegates and allocated proportionally. The same would be true in Virginia (rendering Morton Blackwell's endorsement of Ted Cruz somewhat moot). A state like Tennessee, where only the at-large delegates are proportionally allocated based on the statewide results (and the district level delegates based on the congressional district results), those party delegates would treated as another three at-large delegates.

This is bigger than New Hampshire, then. Other state are affected as well, and FHQ's state-level allocation primers will be updated to reflect the clarified interpretation of the rules.
Click to expand...
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Crab said:
They're different coalitions and shouldn't be compared. Obama took young people, people with a college degree, wealthy Democrats, and racial minorities. Clinton took young people, people without a college degree, poorer Democrats, and whites.

Meanwhile, Sanders takes young people, people with a college degree, poorer Democrats, and whites. Clinton takes old people, people without a college degree, wealthy Democrats, and minorities. You'll spot this just doesn't match to either bloc from '08.

It's not as simple as an "Obama bloc" and a "Clinton bloc". There are myriad different interest groups in the Democrats and they don't always work together in the same ways. I think your argument here fails right from the get go because you don't seem to understand this.
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I'm talking about NH and only NH in most of that assessment. The coalition thing nationally is way different. Obama did not win that way in 2008.

I mean, if you really want to break down NH it's pretty simple. Clinton beat Obama because she won catholics. That's it. Yes, Obama won the 18-25 group but he and Clinton essentially tied on 25-40 group.

If you look at New Hampshire only, Obama took super young people, first time voters (overlap a but there), and wealthy. Clinton won middle aged and older and Catholics.

Bernie won super young people this time and people who are just young (unlike Obama).

What I'm saying is, that in New Hampshire, a lot of 2008 Clinton voters voted for Bernie this time along with a ton of young people who didn't vote previously. My question is about those previous Hillary voters and I wonder how much of that was a reaction to Obama's race. If Obama was white in 2008, he probably crushes Hillary in NH is my point.

Then I talked about NH historically. And I don't think what happens in NH really matters in the rest of the country for the party. I don't think their voters are the same as everyone else (and not just in terms of racial composition, but politics). But maybe I'm off. Maybe Democrats are becoming very liberal way sooner than I thought.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Coriolanus said:
Always you say, mamba my friend?

Such a strong word, that one.
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1 in 5 shot at the nomination, not the Presidency. Bernie will not become President. He will lose to Trump, Rubio, etc. I mean, I said he could beat Carson but Carson has no shot at the nomination.

Nominating Bernie would be a disaster for the country because I don't believe he can win. At all.

Sorry if I didn't clarify that in my post. 1 in 5 chance at Dem nominee, not President.
 
U

User 406

Banned
Black Mamba said:
You know, I'm starting to think Sanders is getting the not-Obama voters from '08. He's taking Hillary and Edwards previous voters.

Which kind of makes sense given the racial makeup of NH but not the politics. He didn't do as well in some places that Obama crushed last time and really well in places Obama got crushed.

You'd think Hillary voters would somewhat stay but it seemed a lot switched. It's time to wonder how much of NH's Hillary support was race based. I don't necessarily mean those voters are racist but I wonder if a lot of them believed they couldn't elect a black man because no way the US would vote in a black president.
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You know, the tragic saga of hillaryis44.org fits this theory very well.
 
D

danwarb

Member
RoKKeR said:
Ending racism sounds just as good* as tuition free college!

*unattainable

Appreciate that I will likely become a larger campaign issue going forward, though.
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Tuition free college is a reality in many countries. It's a good investment and a start at addressing damagingly extreme wealth inequality in the US.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
benjipwns said:
If Obama is white...he's not, well, Obama. Or a candidate for President in 2008. Probably not even giving the Keynote at the Democratic convention in 2004.
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I mean, I get that, but you understand what I was trying to say. I feel like in NH a vote for Clinton might have been more a vote against Obama which is weird in a Primary setting.

Obama in '08 fit the profile of everything you'd think a NH primary voter would vote if you exclude race at the time.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Black Mamba said:
I mean, I get that, but you understand what I was trying to say. I feel like in NH a vote for Clinton might have been more a vote against Obama which is weird in a Primary setting.

Obama in '08 fit the profile of everything you'd think a NH primary voter would vote if you exclude race at the time.
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I left this out of my post, but where does John Edwards (likely coming off an Iowa win?) fit into a hypothetical Obama-as-we-know-him-less NH race?
 
K

kirblar

Member
Black Mamba said:
I mean, I get that, but you understand what I was trying to say. I feel like in NH a vote for Clinton might have been more a vote against Obama which is weird in a Primary setting.

Obama in '08 fit the profile of everything you'd think a NH primary voter would vote if you exclude race at the time.
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The "wants to continue Obama's policies" score for Hillary voters might point in this direction as well.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
danwarb said:
Tuition free college is a reality in many countries. It's a good investment and a start at addressing damagingly extreme wealth inequality in the US.
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European type investment in colleges would be far more like Clinton and obamas investment in free community colleges than Bernies plan. Especially cost wise
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Black Mamba said:
I mean, I get that, but you understand what I was trying to say. I feel like in NH a vote for Clinton might have been more a vote against Obama which is weird in a Primary setting.

Obama in '08 fit the profile of everything you'd think a NH primary voter would vote if you exclude race at the time.
Click to expand...

Obama was leading overwhelmingly up until like the last 3 days, though. It's probably too simplistic to isolate a single factor, but Clinton's tears helped humanize her in a way that punctured some of Obama's charismatic draw; immediately after Obama drops like 3 percentage points a day in the polls.
 
D

danm999

Member
Crab said:
The Democrats really need to get their shit together when even the Republicans have a more democratic and responsive party structure.
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Don't worry, in the Nevada Caucus they don't flip coins.

They cut a deck of cards and award it to the highest draw.
 
T

theprodigy

Member
Crab said:
Obama was leading overwhelmingly up until like the last 3 days, though. It's probably too simplistic to isolate a single factor, but Clinton's tears helped humanize her in a way that punctured some of Obama's charismatic draw; immediately after Obama drops like 3 percentage points a day in the polls.
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So what you're saying is if Hillary cries again Bernie is doomed.

Kappa

though speaking of the Republican primary structure, I actually find it interesting in a way how the states tend to use different rules, even if it makes it rather complicated to follow
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Congressional Black Caucus PAC to endorse Clinton
The Congressional Black Caucus PAC will formally endorse Hillary Clinton on Thursday.

It's a coup for the Democratic presidential contender, as many of the black lawmakers can help leverage support for Clinton in African-American communities that will be critical during her primary battle against Sen. Bernie Sanders.

A half-dozen black lawmakers are expected to spend time in South Carolina campaigning for Clinton ahead of the first-in-the-South primary there on Feb. 20.

Many African-American lawmakers ditched Clinton's candidacy in 2008 when then-Senator Barack Obama entered the race. It was a crippling blow to the New York senator.

But now the vast majority of the CBC has endorsed Clinton, including leaders like Reps. G.K. Butterfield and John Lewis.
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Mmmm hmmmm.

I won't start an OT topic. But this might make for a nice headline.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
HylianTom said:
Congressional Black Caucus PAC to endorse Clinton


Mmmm hmmmm.

I won't start an OT topic. But this might make for a nice headline.
Click to expand...

Is this that surprising? This is a PAC staffed by black congressional members. We already knew black congressional members are not pro-Sanders on account of the fact that congressional members are not pro-Sanders! In fact, Sanders has more black congressional endorsements than he does white ones!
 
F

FloydtheFathead

Member
Crab said:
Is this that surprising? This is a PAC staffed by black congressional members. We already knew black congressional members are not pro-Sanders on account of the fact that congressional members are not pro-Sanders! In fact, Sanders has more black congressional endorsements than he does white ones!
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?
There were several negatives in there and I wasn't entirely sure what you meant.
 
P

PBY

Banned
Crab said:
Is this that surprising? This is a PAC staffed by black congressional members. We already knew black congressional members are not pro-Sanders on account of the fact that congressional members are not pro-Sanders! In fact, Sanders has more black congressional endorsements than he does white ones!
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Crab... your spin cycle is insane.

Not even saying you're wrong or anything, I'm actually just impressed.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
PBY said:
Crab... your spin cycle is insane.

Not even saying you're wrong or anything, I'm actually just impressed.
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I'm actually Jeff Weaver.

Not actually Jeff Weaver.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Crab said:
Is this that surprising? This is a PAC staffed by black congressional members. We already knew black congressional members are not pro-Sanders on account of the fact that congressional members are not pro-Sanders! In fact, Sanders has more black congressional endorsements than he does white ones!
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Raul Griljalva is white. (AND CATHOLIC) So that's 2-1 crackers. (And 2-1 Catholics.)
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Crab said:
He self-identifies as Latino afaik.
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Which is white, Latino is of Spanish descent, as in the European nation of Spain, WE HAD THIS DISCUSSION.

HONKEYS FOR BERNIE

I agree with you that they most likely endorsed Hillary more because they're members of Congress than because they're black.
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
I must be crazier than I realized to consider volunteering for Bernie in Maine (I live near the border) or possibly out-of-state. Absolutely crazy.
 
NYR

NYR

Member
Serious question -

Could someone please explain to me why the democrats wouldn't just hedge their bet with a Clinton/Sanders (or vice versa) ticket? They both seem popular enough with Democrats and no one else is running anymore or was really in contention so not sure who else would be legitimate VP candidates. Wouldn't that combo almost certainly guarantee a victory in November no matter who is on top of the ticket?
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
NYR said:
Serious question -

Could someone please explain to me why the democrats wouldn't just hedge their bet with a Clinton/Sanders (or vice versa) ticket? They both seem popular enough with Democrats and no one else is running anymore or was really in contention so not sure who else would be legitimate VP candidates. Wouldn't that combo almost certainly guarantee a victory in November no matter who is on top of the ticket?
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They did not do that when Obama won, so why now?
 
M

Mrs. Manky

Banned
PBY said:
Trump isn't an atheist tho
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I have two words for you.

TWO CORINTHIANS.

ivysaur12 said:
Maybe if Fiorina had self-identified as a feminist and used this rhetoric a bit more, she would've done better:
Click to expand...

Carly Fiorina said:
To young girls and women across the country, I say: do not let others define you. Do not listen to anyone who says you have to vote a certain way or for a certain candidate because you're a woman. That is not feminism. Feminism doesn't shut down conversations or threaten women. It is not about ideology. It is not a weapon to wield against your political opponent. A feminist is a woman who lives the life she chooses and uses all her God-given gifts. And always remember that a leader is not born, but made. Choose leadership.
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If someone had asked me to guess the author of the above quote, I would have never in a million years said "Carly Fiorina". I'm strangely impressed.
 
K

kirblar

Member
NYR said:
Serious question -

Could someone please explain to me why the democrats wouldn't just hedge their bet with a Clinton/Sanders (or vice versa) ticket? They both seem popular enough with Democrats and no one else is running anymore or was really in contention so not sure who else would be legitimate VP candidates. Wouldn't that combo almost certainly guarantee a victory in November no matter who is on top of the ticket?
Click to expand...
Because the VP has to work with congress.

That's the last job you want Sanders doing.
 
H

Holmes

Member
Crab said:
Is this that surprising? This is a PAC staffed by black congressional members. We already knew black congressional members are not pro-Sanders on account of the fact that congressional members are not pro-Sanders! In fact, Sanders has more black congressional endorsements than he does white ones!
Click to expand...
Not a surprise, no, but I enjoyed reading about it. :) Your final sentence made me laugh though.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
I find this to be an odd result. I'm not even in the older bracket of millenials!

tDBVDpQ.png
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
NYR said:
Serious question -

Could someone please explain to me why the democrats wouldn't just hedge their bet with a Clinton/Sanders (or vice versa) ticket? They both seem popular enough with Democrats and no one else is running anymore or was really in contention so not sure who else would be legitimate VP candidates. Wouldn't that combo almost certainly guarantee a victory in November no matter who is on top of the ticket?
Click to expand...

1) If one assumes the VP pick actually matters at all, it's only in terms of optics and swing states. Something neither offers.
2) I don't think they actually like each other at all regardless of what they say.
3) I don't think the general election will be won by appealing to the left and the further left in the way the primary process forces candidates to do.
4) There are multiple better picks for VP.
 
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