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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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I mean, Trump will probably "just" be an asshole who terrorizes people of color for four years while destroying the U.S. economy and forcibly deporting millions of American families that have lived here for a decade and while he commits vast numbers of war crimes overseas... But there's a chance he could be worse.
 

teiresias

Member
Gawd.

If Hilary gets enough wins Bernie will work it out with her and most likely step down.

He's not going to destroy the chance for any kind of progress over his ego. At least I don't think he would.

He's peddling lies as policy that he knows he can't effect as President. I don't think he's nearly a noble as his supporters make him out to be. He's likely the most narcissistic person in his campaign.
 
He's peddling lies as policy that he knows he can't effect as President. I don't think he's nearly a noble as his supporters make him out to be. He's likely the most narcissistic person in his campaign.

Oh hey there again.

I could be wrong. Maybe he has that big of an ego. I just don't see it.

I mean you're bound to form some kind of ego with all the success he has had through primarily small donors. But I don't think it's that big to ruin progress.
 

Chichikov

Member
That's democracy for you. You get the government you deserve, and it seems like by-and-large my generation is far more interested in sharing Facebook images, and then complain that it's the system's fault nothing changes.
5mWocBF.png


It's not snapchat or facebook or MTV or video games or comic books fault that voter turnout it pretty low in the US.
It's just that in a lot of states your vote matter very litter, combine it with the fact you don't get a day off for voting and the fact that a two party system will often present you choices who are not exactly your cup of tea and you get a systemic and pretty consistent voting pattern.

And while youth voting is pretty stable in general, from my personal (and obviously anecdotal) experience, today's youth seems much more engage in politics than people who grew up ~20 years ago.
 

jtb

Banned
this is the part where bernie not being a democrat seems particularly interesting -- if he hasn't had allegiance to the party in the past, why would he start now?
 
Almost 85 percent of Republican insiders said Trump isn’t on a glide path to become the party’s nominee, despite a 22-point win in the New Hampshire primary this week.

Their rationale is partly about math – Trump has a solid plurality of the vote in many states, but polls suggest he is too polarizing to win over a majority of Republicans – and partly grounded in the belief that the brash, sometimes-profane real-estate mogul will wilt once the other candidates turn their fire on him.

“Trump needs to show that he can grow his share of the vote,” said a South Carolina Republican, who, like all respondents, completed the survey anonymously. “Right now he's getting around one-third, but that means two-thirds of the vote is ‘not Trump.’ If he has a ceiling, then as others drop out, Cruz or one of the establishment candidates can pass him. We are down to six in South Carolina – let’s see if he grows this time.”

“Nobody has gone negative on The Donald,” added a Republican in New Hampshire, where Trump won Tuesday with more than 35 percent of the vote. “Nobody has talked about his liberal views, his bankruptcies, or his personal life. As the front runner, it's all fair game.”

A South Carolina Republican put it this way: “He will flame out as people become more serious.”

Did I go back to August 2015 for a second? What are these guys sniffing? Jeb and the media have been negative on Trump for the entire fucking campaign.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/insiders-no-easy-road-to-nomination-for-trump-219142
 

pigeon

Banned
Did I go back to August 2015 for a second? What are these guys sniffing? Jeb and the media have been negative on Trump for the entire fucking campaign.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/insiders-no-easy-road-to-nomination-for-trump-219142

They've talked about it, but nobody's really invested money in it. They've just been hoping that somehow the media or the debates would do it for them.

One of the big surprises of the Trump campaign has been that none of his enemies are willing to actually spend money to attack him because they aren't sure what's going on and they don't want to waste money if he's going to flame out.

It may be too late.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Did I go back to August 2015 for a second? What are these guys sniffing? Jeb and the media have been negative on Trump for the entire fucking campaign.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/insiders-no-easy-road-to-nomination-for-trump-219142
Many are going to be in denial until it actually. And when it does happen, the realization of fate is going to be amazing to witness. I wish I could pinpoint the exact future date and take off from work, just to watch the world react.
 
Did I go back to August 2015 for a second? What are these guys sniffing? Jeb and the media have been negative on Trump for the entire fucking campaign.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/insiders-no-easy-road-to-nomination-for-trump-219142

The GOP still doesn't know their own delegate math. You can't speak glibly about a ceiling when in a field of four candidates, an average-across-states vote share of 30% is enough to get 50% of delegates through Super Tuesday. The GOP's "proportional" states aren't actually that proportional.
 

jtb

Banned
hasn't Right to Rise almost exclusively attacked candidates within the "establishment" lane? (to wonderful effect of course) what puzzles me is that I'm not sure if it's pettiness or just outright stupidity that's driving this idiotic strategy

most likely, both!
 
These SC polls showing Kasich at 8 or 9 percent are really awful for the GOP, you might get a scenario where no one but Trump or Cruz gets delegates from the state, with the winner taking a huge majority of them with the way the allocation works.
 
Obama is up there with Raygun as the best politician since FDR whereas Trump has the vocabulary of a 4th grader and yet there are people that believe in white supremacy. It's like, incredible.
 

User 406

Banned
With that incarceration promise Bernie has sufficiently gone into crazy unattainable-" but he must know better" territory that I can't vote for him in good conscience. At this point he's selling a bill of goods that's as delusional as Tea Party candidates just ideologically opposed on the political spectrum. I can only assume at this point he's only cynically selling his proposals as a means to an end rather than engaging in presenting an earnest plan of action that will result in any real change.

I'm not sure what I'll do during the general election, but if he's the nominee I either skip the Presidential column and only vote local races or see what's happening in third-party land.

Don't be ridiculous. If nothing else Bernie can warm a seat and appoint Justices. Republicans have openly set their sights on Roe v. Wade and Obergefell, and they'll keep trying to kill the ACA in the courts. Let's also not forget that this court cut a key provision of the VRA, and within hours red states had legislation in the pipe to make it harder for minorities to vote. So leave that petty shit to the people who can't do math.


Also, all this shitting on Millenials needs to fucking stop.


Note how the line for 18-24 parallels the one for all voters. Kids don't vote because they're kids, and our generations were no better. And last I checked we've got a second Civil Rights Movement out on these streets right now, so can it with the unearned superiority complex.
 
What did they say? I can't watch TV, I'm at work writing about seeing eye dogs or whatever.

They agreed that Hillary's closing was great, and gave a clear indication of what she wants to do in the campaign. That her best strategy for taking on his pie in the sky stuff is to make it about him instead of making it about her. Then they went off on that Cruz Hillary Office Space attack ad he's running. They also talked about how a lot of the people making the ads this year are total dipshits. I pretty much agreed with the whole segment...except for the part where Andrea said Chuck should have more time on TV. He shouldn't.
 
Hey, I just agreed with John Podhoretz. He absolutely should get on a leaky boat and leave America.

Basically the entire Republican party thinks that America is a hellscape right now too, lol. What a bizarre argument and person.

White supremacists also like the gold standard!

The Constitution is to liberal politics what the gold standard is to liberal economics—barbarous relics that they'd like to get rid of.

https://twitter.com/stevenfhayward/status/694205740739747844
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
They agreed that Hillary's closing was great, and gave a clear indication of what she wants to do in the campaign. That her best strategy for taking on his pie in the sky stuff is to make it about him instead of making it about her. Then they went off on that Cruz Hillary Office Space attack ad he's running. They also talked about how a lot of the people making the ads this year are total dipshits. I pretty much agreed with the whole segment...except for the part where Andrea said Chuck should have more time on TV. He shouldn't.

Most of that sounds reasonable, I'm confused were they replaced by pod people?

Is there...like...should we get tested or something? Something must be wrong with the world today.

This is probably a good idea, I'll bring the beer.
 

Holmes

Member
The media talking up Clinton and her new message and concentrating on Sanders' criticisms of Obama and poor race relations is a pretty stark contrast to just 4-5 days ago.
 

Drek

Member
I think it's obvious that after the economic recession, the middle class was angry and wanted radical change after that. They diverted into two routes, the tea party and Occupation Wallstreet. Bernie is the only presidential candidate appealing to the Occupy Wallstreet crowd.

The vast majority of Americans have had nothing to do with either groups, and aren't particularly big fans of either groups. One has no message and the other has a violently anti-government message. I would agree that Sanders is tapping into the Occupy Wallstreet crowd, but as we've seen that crowd is directionless and unable to follow through on anything of consequence.

Who said Clinton is a shift to the right? Stop projecting stuff. And have you seen Congress? Which is what we mean when we discuss political climate? That's dominated by Republicans... which means currently we are shifting to the right, even tho we have a Dem in the White House.
the nation continues to lean left. Congress exhibits it's current composition due to a slanted districting system that disproportionately favors rural and suburban areas with more seats than their population would normally entail. That has been massively exacerbated and exploited by jerrymandering of districts. It is not a reflection of the nation as a whole and Obama's ability to carry in both the house and senate with him is representative of that. The problem is that the left leaning majority has a horrible track record of getting out the vote, letting the right leaning minority kill them in mid-terms.



It's only not possible if we're not serious about it.
It is impossible because it is an inherently flawed platform the majority of the country will recoil at in disgust. Soak corporations doesn't work when most people work for a corporation of some kind and understand that the increased financial burden on those entities will "trickle down" to them.

Gross. Keep Warren where she is wonderful and useful to us. In Congress. Stop taking our useful progressives and putting them in useless positions. We always need more of them in Congress.
Not when she has no voice due to current senate composition, and not when she is from a staunchly left leaning state and would be replaced by another left leaning candidate. As a VP she gains substantial credibility as a POTUS candidate at an ideal time to capitalize on it.
 
Most of that sounds reasonable, I'm confused were they replaced by pod people?

This is probably a good idea, I'll bring the beer.

It was weird as all hell. They actually defended Hillary! I can't even....at 11:01 tonight possible bae and I are going to go drink. A lot. I hope.

Just think of these people as a clock.

giphy.gif

Usually, I'm the only thing that gets hit that hard in bed.

GmEjiCv.gif


I....I'll see myself out.
 

dramatis

Member
Man as a Chinese-American Bernie really alienated me last night with his anti-China talk. Not a fan of how he disingenuously blamed China for being the sole reason for the decline of US manufacturing jobs when such jobs were on the decline in the US beforehand and such jobs are currently on the decline worldwide, and not a fan of how he indirectly said that Kissinger opening up China was a bad idea. This stood out to me a lot more especially after his token mention of Asian-Americans earlier in the debate. Not a fan of his economic and anti-immigration stances in general honestly.

Though I don't think any candidate really cares about Asian-Americans, Hillary is probably the one who comes the closest since she's the only one I can think of who even has an AAPI outreach thing going on.
It's hard not to get the feeling that he's going to put Americans (specifically white people) first lol, with all the ramrod straight talk on economics. I don't really get the impression he cares about much outside his ideals, and it's just handwaving to say "everything falls under the umbrella of my ideals".

I feel like China is an easy boogeyman for people whose perceptions about trade are still stuck in the 90s or something.

To be frank, the Asian American population hasn't really grown enough to be a significant force in politics yet, not to mention low participation not just in voting but also in politics in general.

Gawd.

If Hilary gets enough wins Bernie will work it out with her and most likely step down.

He's not going to destroy the chance for any kind of progress over his ego. At least I don't think he would.
The problem isn't about whether Bernie will work with her or not. Dragging out the primary is wasting resources and time, because the Democratic party could be preparing for the general instead. What's fortunate for them right now is that Ted Cruz might be enough of an asshole to drag things out with Trump. But if that's not how it plays out on the Republican side, then Dems are eating up valuable resources in a drawn-out primary.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
The media talking up Clinton and her new message and concentrating on Sanders' criticisms of Obama and poor race relations is a pretty stark contrast to just 4-5 days ago.

Well, Sanders did just win a state pretty handily so it makes sense they would be a little harder on him going forward.
 
The media talking up Clinton and her new message and concentrating on Sanders' criticisms of Obama and poor race relations is a pretty stark contrast to just 4-5 days ago.
Well, that's where things are at as of today. Things could be on the downswing for Sanders from here. We don't really know yet but...
 
The media talking up Clinton and her new message and concentrating on Sanders' criticisms of Obama and poor race relations is a pretty stark contrast to just 4-5 days ago.

They have to walk a very fine line, while keeping all the plates spinning. They can't let things shift too far to Bernie. They have to keep it as close to centered as they can. It's all about the horse race numbers.

Well, that and Bernie really isn't coming off well with the line of Obama attacks. It was well done by Hillary. Plus, the race question where he immediately pivoted to Wall Street was..it wasn't a good look.
 
The problem isn't about whether Bernie will work with her or not. Dragging out the primary is wasting resources and time, because the Democratic party could be preparing for the general instead. What's fortunate for them right now is that Ted Cruz might be enough of an asshole to drag things out with Trump. But if that's not how it plays out on the Republican side, then Dems are eating up valuable resources in a drawn-out primary.

Fair enough.

And what if Bernie continues to win? Would Hilary drop out?

The same can be asked to both.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Trump "How can Cruz call himself an Evangelical Christians with all these lies?" YYYEERSSSSSSSSS

FINALLY. I have been waiting for this for weeks now. It's about time. I want to hear it in the debate.

As for Bernie, I'll admit--I'm voting for the democrat either way so I haven't actually watched a democratic debate yet. I finally did last night and heard Bernie speak for the first time.

The guy has ZERO chance to win a general election. Zero. He comes off as "angry old man." I hate to say it, because he seems like a great guy with great priorities and hopes for the future. I really think he sees the dire future our country has if the gap between rich and poor keeps growing. I just don't ever see how he could beat anybody in a general election.
 

noshten

Member
Fair enough.

And what if Bernie continues to win? Would Hilary drop out?

The same can be asked to both.

After loosing NH by the biggest margin in a primary for over 50 years, if Clinton fails to win Nevada and if Bernie is able to bring down the difference in SC down to under 10 points - she should just drop out instead of drugging things out when it's obviously she has lost any semblance of electability ;)
 
And I maintain that Bernie would do the same.

What if it's narrow but Bernie wins the most states?

Well, I really doubt that in most states it would be that close. VT will be a blow out, obviously. Of the 12 states on Super Tuesday, I'd argue Bernie has a chance in 6 of them. Not a good chance, mind you, but a chance. Bernie's best case scenario is a tie in the number of states. However, in the states where Hillary is favored, she'll probably run up the delegate margins. So, even if Bernie gets narrow wins in some states, I don't foresee him winning by enough to net more than a handful of delegates more than Hillary in places like Mass and Minnesota. However, we know she'll make bank in Alabama, Georgia and Arkansas. Hillary can afford ties. Bernie cannot.

The problem is, the map doesn't get better for Bernie as March goes on. Illinois, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Mississippi, and North Carolina all come up. These are delegate rich, and not inside Bernie's wheel house at all. March actually goes from bad to worse for him. April looks a little better for Bernie, but I can't see him actually believing he's viable if he loses a majority of the March states.
 
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