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[UltimaPooh]

Well, I really doubt that in most states it would be that close. VT will be a blow out, obviously. Of the 12 states on Super Tuesday, I'd argue Bernie has a chance in 6 of them. Not a good chance, mind you, but a chance. Bernie's best case scenario is a tie in the number of states. However, in the states where Hillary is favored, she'll probably run up the delegate margins. So, even if Bernie gets narrow wins in some states, I don't foresee him winning by enough to net more than a handful of delegates more than Hillary in places like Mass and Minnesota. However, we know she'll make bank in Alabama, Georgia and Arkansas. Hillary can afford ties. Bernie cannot.

The problem is, the map doesn't get better for Bernie as March goes on. Illinois, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Mississippi, and North Carolina all come up. These are delegate rich, and not inside Bernie's wheel house at all. March actually goes from bad to worse for him. April looks a little better for Bernie, but I can't see him actually believing he's viable if he loses a majority of the March states.

Thanks for the breakdown.

Mostly... I'm just trying to dispel this boogieman that is created... like Bernie wouldn't step down if he was slaughtered... or that Hilary wouldn't either. It's just mumbo jumbo.

As I pointed out. Last time Dems had a primary... they made it all the way to June before we had our nominee and we still easily clinched the Presidency.

Just a bunch of nonsense.

 

[Y2Kev]

After the queen demolished the court jester wacky Bernie last night I drank myself into oblivion and I'm never drinking ever again. But allow me to say I will vote for whoever picks purple haze as their running mate.

 

[sangreal]

What happened to early voting? I remember at this point in 2008 we obamabots were lamenting that Hillary was winning primaries only because she banked votes early. Haven't heard anything about that lately

 

[B-Dubs]

What happened to early voting? I remember at this point in 2008 we obamabots were lamenting that Hillary was winning primaries only because she banked votes early. Haven't heard anything about that lately

The calendar started much earlier in 2008, we're a month behind where we were then right now.

 

[Plinko]

Did I go back to August 2015 for a second? What are these guys sniffing? Jeb and the media have been negative on Trump for the entire fucking campaign.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/insiders-no-easy-road-to-nomination-for-trump-219142

Rubio “needs to finish a clear third or second in South Carolina,” said a GOP insider there.

Again with this? Seriously? How in the world is him getting 3rd place here any indication that he is "recovering?" Terrible.

 

[Cybit]

Tell me folks have seen this

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/02/12/obama-s-writer-pens-trump-victory-speech.html

It's Jon Favreau (Obama's old speechwriter) writing a mock "Trump victory speech".

It's terrifying and hilarious. Also, I think I'm falling on this train of thought

If Trump is the GOP nominee, I want Sanders
If anyone else GOP wins, I want Clinton

 

[sangreal]

The calendar started much earlier in 2008, we're a month behind where we were then right now.

right I know, but shouldn't early/absentee voting for some states be starting soon then?

 

[B-Dubs]

Tell me folks have seen this

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/02/12/obama-s-writer-pens-trump-victory-speech.html

It's Jon Favreau (Obama's old speechwriter) writing a mock "Trump victory speech".

It's terrifying and hilarious. Also, I think I'm falling on this train of thought

If Trump is the GOP nominee, I want Sanders
If anyone else GOP wins, I want Clinton

I want Biden if Trump is the nominee. The debates would be the stuff of legend.

 

[User 463088]

Thanks for the breakdown.

Mostly... I'm just trying to dispel this boogieman that is created... like Bernie wouldn't step down if he was slaughtered... or that Hilary wouldn't either. It's just mumbo jumbo.

As I pointed out. Last time Dems had a primary... they made it all the way to June before we had our nominee and we still easily clinched the Presidency.

Just a bunch of nonsense.

The only thing I would be cautious of is comparing 2008 to any other year. The only election that mattered in 2008 was the Democratic Primary. Anyone we had put up in 2008 would have won. Maybe not by Obama's margin, but anyone would have won. McCain was a sacrificial lamb. No Republican was getting a 3rd term when the President's approval rating was in the 30s.

Hillary should have dropped out sooner than she did in 2008. I was fighting for her even though I knew it was over. It was over by the end of February, to be honest. His lead, at that point, was probably too much for her to overcome. Because of Hillary's 2016 advantage with Super Delegates, Bernie has even less wiggle room.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

the nation continues to lean left. Congress exhibits it's current composition due to a slanted districting system that disproportionately favors rural and suburban areas with more seats than their population would normally entail. That has been massively exacerbated and exploited by jerrymandering of districts. It is not a reflection of the nation as a whole and Obama's ability to carry in both the house and senate with him is representative of that. The problem is that the left leaning majority has a horrible track record of getting out the vote, letting the right leaning minority kill them in mid-terms.

The current urban / rural breakdown is definitely a problem but the idea that the US is leaning left is not accurate. The Gallup tracking on self identification shows that more people now view themselves as liberal but the gains have come from the moderate category, and conservatives have staid roughly flat. So Dems still need to wins a strong majority of moderates to get the Presidency.

 

[UltimaPooh]

The only thing I would be cautious of is comparing 2008 to any other year. The only election that mattered in 2008 was the Democratic Primary. Anyone we had put up in 2008 would have won. Maybe not by Obama's margin, but anyone would have won. McCain was a sacrificial lamb. No Republican was getting a 3rd term when the President's approval rating was in the 30s.

Hillary should have dropped out sooner than she did in 2008. I was fighting for her even though I knew it was over. It was over by the end of February, to be honest. His lead, at that point, was probably too much for her to overcome. Because of Hillary's 2016 advantage with Super Delegates, Bernie has even less wiggle room.

Granted.

But I think you're missing my point... in that both would step down at some point... well before election season.

There's not much history to go on when it comes to Bernie and presidential primaries as there is Hilary but I think we could both agree, despite you ravenous love affair with Hildawg, that he would step down. And she ultimately would do the same.

We're just bickering between who is more progressive or who will get stuff done... but I think a good majority of both sides know what progressive things are at stake if we don't come together in the end.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

The problem isn't about whether Bernie will work with her or not. Dragging out the primary is wasting resources and time, because the Democratic party could be preparing for the general instead. What's fortunate for them right now is that Ted Cruz might be enough of an asshole to drag things out with Trump. But if that's not how it plays out on the Republican side, then Dems are eating up valuable resources in a drawn-out primary.

I think there's a very strong chance that we look back at this Sanders surge as a good thing. He has forced Clinton to sharpen her message and reach out to voter's more aggressively, Its much better to be learning this stuff in February than July. Plus it looks like both camps are getting a lot of financial support as people get into the race. More resources overall means that spending some now isn't a problem.

 

[rjinaz]

It's a shame y'all drank so much last night. I save my drinking for the Republican debates mostly, there being one tomorrow. It makes them far more enjoyable. I mostly avoid the Democratic debates altogether. Too much in-fighting for my tastes.

 

[User 463088]

Granted.

But I think you're missing my point... in that both would step down at some point... well before election season.

There's not much history to go on when it comes to Bernie and presidential primaries as there is Hilary but I think we could both agree, despite you ravenous love affair with Hildawg, that he would step down. And she ultimately would do the same.

We're just bickering between who is more progressive or who will get stuff done... but I think a good majority of both sides know what progressive things are at stake if we don't come together in the end.

I'm not arguing that he wouldn't. That's never been my position. I believe he will stay in until it's mathematically impossible for him to win, though. I think Hillary will do the same. The points I've made are that a lot of what his campaign is doing is an attempt to survive March. That's fine. If he only manages to win a handful of states in March, though, he's done, even if Hillary doesn't have enough delegates to secure the nomination. I'm sure he'll stay in after, and that's fine. He's welcome to do that.

However, I know Devine and his ilk, and they'll push to keep Bernie in until the bitter end. That's their job. They want the checks to keep coming. I think Bernie is smart enough to know if the writing is on the wall. At least, I hope he is.

 

[Captain Pants]

Its so weird that Al Sharpton is skinny

I know he has been for a long time now

but its like I'm looking for the rest of him

I had the same thought the other day when I was watching that episode of Chelsea Does on racism. He's lost a crazy amount of weight.

 

[CDX]

What happened to early voting? I remember at this point in 2008 we obamabots were lamenting that Hillary was winning primaries only because she banked votes early. Haven't heard anything about that lately

I haven't really been following the states that allow early voting this year. I know I did see mention that Georgia started early voting on Monday. I remember that only because I saw it mentioned like a little factoid that they were actually going to start voting before New Hampshire, the supposed first votes in the nation.

Last poll I've seen about Georgia had Hillary leading Bernie by about 40 points. That too will narrow of course.

 

[User 463088]

This is a real thing that is really for sale on the real Hillary Clinton store.

OMG. Dead. Just fucking dead.

Spoiler

I ordered two

 

[dramatis]

I think there's a very strong chance that we look back at this Sanders surge as a good thing. He has forced Clinton to sharpen her message and reach out to voter's more aggressively, Its much better to be learning this stuff in February than July. Plus it looks like both camps are getting a lot of financial support as people get into the race. More resources overall means that spending some now isn't a problem.

I know there are good reasons for having a longer primary too, but basically you have to weigh the pros and cons and determine the situation on the opposite side too.

 

[NeoXChaos]

This is a real thing that is really for sale on the real Hillary Clinton store.

OMG. Dead. Just fucking dead.

Spoiler

I ordered two

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DxfMUEf9otQ

so cringe worthy

 

[CCS]

This is a real thing that is really for sale on the real Hillary Clinton store.

OMG. Dead. Just fucking dead.

Spoiler

I ordered two

Sanders has no chill.

 

[Hilbert]

This is a real thing that is really for sale on the real Hillary Clinton store.

OMG. Dead. Just fucking dead.

Spoiler

I ordered two

I am going to order the pint glasses. I already have a collection, so it would be nice to add them.

I was going to order them a few weeks ago, but the fact I had to pay shipping shocked me and was a bit too much money for me to handle.

 

[User 463088]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DxfMUEf9otQ

so cringe worthy

Somehow, I didn't know they actually sold them. I mean...I vaguely remember that vine thing...(But I really don't know what a vine is tbh...)

I just....OMG. My Queen is so in touch. It's amazing.

I am going to order the pint glasses. I already have a collection, so it would be nice to add them.

I was going to order them a few weeks ago, but the fact I had to pay shipping shocked me and was a bit too much money for me to handle.

I ordered a set too. Plus, I ordered 3 supporter packs. My neighbor loves Hillary too, and wanted to know where she could get some swag. I told her I'd get her some. She wants to take it to her church too. I also ordered another t-shirt. I got one of the "Ohioans for HIllary" shirt to wear when I canvass.

 

[NeoXChaos]

why do people refer to Hillary as Queen? Y2kev does it a lot. Is there a hidden joke in there?

 

[rjinaz]

This is a real thing that is really for sale on the real Hillary Clinton store.

OMG. Dead. Just fucking dead.

Spoiler

I ordered two

ok those are pretty dope. Don't drink much canned beer but I might drink some just to use these. Especially at family gathering where talking politics can start family wars that can last decades.

 

[UltimaPooh]

Sanders has no chill.

He's got the hot Bern for coffee tho.
https://store.berniesanders.com/collections/drinkware/products/serious-bern-acrylic-coffee-mug

 

[benjipwns]

He's peddling lies as policy that he knows he can't effect as President. I don't think he's nearly a noble as his supporters make him out to be. He's likely the most narcissistic person in his campaign.

Why do you keep calling Hillary "he"?

 

[UltimaPooh]

why do people refer to Hillary as Queen? Y2kev does it a lot. Is there a hidden joke in there?

Not really.

She's the Queen of Politics.

Just like Beyonce is the Queen of music.

 

[kirblar]

It's hard not to get the feeling that he's going to put Americans (specifically white people) first lol, with all the ramrod straight talk on economics. I don't really get the impression he cares about much outside his ideals, and it's just handwaving to say "everything falls under the umbrella of my ideals".

I feel like China is an easy boogeyman for people whose perceptions about trade are still stuck in the 90s or something.

To be frank, the Asian American population hasn't really grown enough to be a significant force in politics yet, not to mention low participation not just in voting but also in politics in general.


The problem isn't about whether Bernie will work with her or not. Dragging out the primary is wasting resources and time, because the Democratic party could be preparing for the general instead. What's fortunate for them right now is that Ted Cruz might be enough of an asshole to drag things out with Trump. But if that's not how it plays out on the Republican side, then Dems are eating up valuable resources in a drawn-out primary.

Sanders and Trump are both spouting rhetoric that's both protectionist and populist. It's toxic.

 

[User 463088]

I have no shame. I'm going to wear the hell out of this.

 

[UltimaPooh]

I have no shame. I'm going to wear the hell out of this.

Okay. She wins in the fashion department.

I kind of want to see a hilarious Bernie version of this as well.

 

[benjipwns]

I think I just threw up in my mouth.

 

[StopMakingSense]

why do people refer to Hillary as Queen? Y2kev does it a lot. Is there a hidden joke in there?

popgaf

 

[rjinaz]

Okay. She wins in the fashion department.

I kind of want to see a hilarious Bernie version of this as well.

Probably just a bunch of Bernies in his one good pair of underwear.

 

[UltimaPooh]

Probably just a bunch of Bernies in his one good pair of underwear.

Sealed the gay vote!

 

[FloydtheFathead]

I think I just threw up in my mouth.

What happened Benji?

 

[benjipwns]

why do people refer to Hillary as Queen? Y2kev does it a lot. Is there a hidden joke in there?

We let a lot of the Loyalists stay rather than rooting them out like in France.

It's why we need another Revolution.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Hey Sander's you ain't turning out shit

 

[Makai]

Debate lineup revealed. No Gilmore

 

[User 463088]

I'm not a member of Pop Gaf, but I am a big ol gay. Ergo, any powerful woman is my queen. Hillary is my uber queen. Yaaaasss queeen. WERK.

 

[teiresias]

Okay. She wins in the fashion department.

I kind of want to see a hilarious Bernie version of this as well.

Bernie's version would just be a row of text that says, "Homophobia doesn't exist, only income inequality."

 

[B-Dubs]

Debate lineup revealed. No Gilmore

Those monsters! How dare they keep the future frontrunner down!

 

[vicissitudes]

There are way more candidates on the GOP side and only 2 on the Democrat side. When you've got 10+ candidates all campaigning to GOTV of course their turnout is going to be higher and Dems' more subdued.

 

[User 463088]

What happened Benji?

He was confronted with the pure fabulousness that is my Hillary shirt. Some people just can't handle all this fabulousness.

 

[teiresias]

There are way more candidates on the GOP side and only 2 on the Democrat side. When you've got 10+ candidates all campaigning to GOTV of course their turnout is going to be higher and Dems' more subdued.

But there's supposed to be a revolution going on that will upend the political status quo.

 

[User 463088]

But there's supposed to be a revolution going on that will upend the political status quo.

It's...it's real quiet. It's a quiet revolution. It's not going to be televised or anything. We gotta keep it on the DL. Cause, you know, MILLIONAIRES and BILLIONAIRES. And also, China. And also like such as Wall Street. Because...revolution

: nods :

Spoiler

You know I love you Bernie Gaf!

 

[FloydtheFathead]

We let a lot of the Loyalists stay rather than rooting them out like in France.

It's why we need another Revolution.

And Robespierre is Bernie? And that means Trump is Napoleon?

He was confronted with the pure fabulousness that is my Hillary shirt. Some people just can't handle all this fabulousness.

Yeah.. Couldn't really handle the shirt either Adam. I'd rather have the Chillary Clinton cozies than the shirt.

 

[Y2Kev]

Hey Sander's you ain't turning out shit

Actually when you consider that it's a two person race vs a 3 person, hilldawg and wacky have more votes per candidate than the others.

I'm not a member of Pop Gaf, but I am a big ol gay. Ergo, any powerful woman is my queen. Hillary is my uber queen. Yaaaasss queeen. WERK.

Yaaaaaaaas WERK

 

[User 463088]

Yeah.. Couldn't really handle the shirt either Adam. I'd rather have the Chillary Clinton cozies than the shirt.

You poor, poor non-fabulous man. I'll pray for you.

Yaaaaaaaas WERK

 

[kirblar]

Source I trust sends these SC tracking numbers from a non-Jeb campaign; Trump 34, Cruz 17, Jeb 12, Rubio 10. Kasich in single digits.

RTed by Silver.

If Trump can't get past 1/3 of the vote, this is gonna be the most insane political convention we've had in eons.

 

[Y2Kev]

Why? Won't he get most of the delegates?