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[ivysaur12]

For people who are more knowledgeable than me on these matters: What impact will Scalia's death have in regards to Friedrichs vs. California? Is it likely to be a split 4-4 decision now?

Any vote that Scalia made is void if the decision has not been handed down. It's likely going to be a 4-4 decision that would let the lower court ruling stand.

A huge win for labor.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

ARG South Carolina (February 12th-13th), 400 likely Democratic and Republican voters

Clinton 65%
Sanders 27%
74-19 Clinton with AA voters

Trump 35%
Kasich 15%
Rubio 14%
Cruz 12%
Bush 10%

http://americanresearchgroup.com/ for further deets

???????????????????????

Kasich above Cruz in the deep south?

 

[Slayven]

I've got the rest of the Republican threads but you can take one if you stick with the format

I think there are a few Dem debates up for grabs.

Cause I have some really good idea for comic alter egos of the candidates.

 

[StopMakingSense]

I wonder how much of McConnells immediate response was an effort to not let Cruz own the debate in obstructing a nominee.

 

[Bowdz]

ARG South Carolina (February 12th-13th), 400 likely Democratic and Republican voters

Clinton 65%
Sanders 27%
74-19 Clinton with AA voters

Trump 35%
Kasich 15%
Rubio 14%
Cruz 12%
Bush 10%

OMG at those GOP positions. Kasich and Rubitron above the Canadian? This day is bonkers. Literally bonkers. BONKERS.

 

[Macho Madness]

ARG South Carolina (February 12th-13th), 400 likely Democratic and Republican voters

Clinton 65%
Sanders 27%
74-19 Clinton with AA voters

Trump 35%
Kasich 15%
Rubio 14%
Cruz 12%
Bush 10%

http://americanresearchgroup.com/ for further deets

ARG gets a C- from Nate fwiw

 

[Kyosaiga]

I have such a girl boner for Rachel Maddow. Seriously.

But...but...

Your name is Adam?

 

[kirblar]

OMG at those GOP positions. Kasich and Rubitron above the Canadian? This day is bonkers. Literally bonkers. BONKERS.

Moderate/establishment voters are going to Kasich as the literal only electable option.

 

[User 463088]

But...but...

Your name is Adam?

Actual boners are reserved for mens.

Psychological ones are reserved for people like Rachel Maddow.

 

[Kyosaiga]

Goddamn.

 

[Wilsongt]

Goddamn.

Holy shit.

 

[User 463088]

Goddamn.

OMG. I laughed so hard. I spilled some of my pre-debate cocktail.

 

[Four_Chamber]

ARG gets a C- from Nate fwiw

Agreed not the best pollster. Far more useful for the Democratic findings than the GOP ones to be honest. I think all I can gleam from these polls is that Trump and Clinton have big leads in the polls. Positions 2-5 on the GOP side are up in the air.

 

[neurosisxeno]

ARG gets a C- from Nate fwiw

Look at their splits and it's clear something is amiss. Sanders has consistently done well with the 18-49 crowd but this poll has him losing that 57 to 36. I find that really hard to believe even in SC.

 

[User 463088]

Look at their splits and it's clear something is amiss. Sanders has consistently done well with the 18-49 crowd but this poll has him losing that 57 to 36. I find that really hard to believe even in SC.

Not when you consider Hillary runs significantly ahead of Bernie among young AA.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

McConnell is betting the farm. Wow.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Do you have a moment to talk about our Lord and Savior Ted Strickland?

Haha well I'm actually not employed (yet) but he'll be getting one too. Same with Jason Kander, Deborah Ross and Ann Kirkpatrick.

 

[Macho Madness]

ARG did appear however to be the first to catch Kasich's late surged in NH, so I don't know. Still, more polls coming soon.

 

[sangreal]

how many 4-4 decisions go against conservatives before they think this might be a bad idea? there are some big cases this year, some of which went against conservatives in the lower courts

and yes, I realize they don't set precedent

 

[SenorArdilla]

Has Obama decided on who his nomination?

 

[User 463088]

Haha well I'm actually not employed (yet) but he'll be getting one too. Same with Jason Kander, Deborah Ross and Ann Kirkpatrick.

I got my donations all setup to. Hillary's getting $75 a month as is Strickland. $50 to my local Democratic party. More to some local races, depending on who we get to run.

 

[sangreal]

Has Obama decided on who his nomination?

Even if he had, he won't announce who for some time

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Citizens United is done though. They can't really just bring stuff up because they want to.

They can't just flip it back around but there are test cases liberals can bring to restrain some of its impact. Just a year or two ago there was a Montana case that would have allowed for more state level limits on non-disclosed funds. With a liberal instead of Scalia that goes through.

 

[Macho Madness]

Has Obama decided on who his nomination?

We won't know until he's decided. Though leaks sometimes happen.

 

[Four_Chamber]

Like I said in the other thread, if Obama nominates a reasonable candidate for the spot and the GOP plays this game, its gonna pay big dividends in downballot races. People already detest Congress and this will slam it home.

 

[Macho Madness]

https://twitter.com/Eugene_Scott/status/698663135536877570

#BREAKING on @CNN: President Obama intends to nominate a new Supreme Court Justice

 

[Aaron Strife]

I got my donations all setup to. Hillary's getting $75 a month as is Strickland. $50 to my local Democratic party. More to some local races, depending on who we get to run.

I feel like Hillary, if the nominee will have plenty of money behind her so I'm not too concerned about that.

If the nominee is Sanders though? Hoo boy. I'll be throwing everything I've got at him, he'll need all the help he can get. I gave him a token $10 donation early on and bought a shirt (that counts, right?).

 

[shinra-bansho]

Look at their splits and it's clear something is amiss. Sanders has consistently done well with the 18-49 crowd but this poll has him losing that 57 to 36. I find that really hard to believe even in SC.

I think you need to consider that more than half of the primary electorate in SC is AA and she wins that group in this poll by wide margin.

That's not to say that one should take the poll at face value, but the point your making isn't necessarily a discrepancy. It's a very different electorate than NH or IA.

 

[Suikoguy]

https://twitter.com/Eugene_Scott/status/698663135536877570

Are they that together that the intentionally are going after that terrible narrative McConnel started?

If so, they have it more together than I thought.

 

[Four_Chamber]

https://twitter.com/Eugene_Scott/status/698663135536877570

My man

 

[neurosisxeno]

Not when you consider Hillary runs significantly ahead of Bernie among young AA.

Speaking of which, from that ARG poll; African American/Black(53%) White (46%)

Uhhhh, South Carolina's Black population only accounts for 28 percent of the entire population (as of 2013). So where did they get that split? They took it from the 2008 Democratic Primary, when Barrack Obama got more Black voters out than anyone thought possible.

I think you need to consider that more than half of the primary electorate in SC is AA and she wins that group in this poll by wide margin.

That's not to say that one should take the poll at face value, but the point your making isn't necessarily a discrepancy. It's a very different electorate than NH or IA.

That was true in 2008, but mainly because Obama was on the ticket.

EDIT: Apparently non-whites accounted for ~45% of the vote in the 2004 primary as well, how unusual.

 

[Crisco]

Recess appointment of a liberal justice to replace Scalia would be the ultimate denouement to Obama's presidency.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Speaking of which, from that ARG poll; African American/Black(53%) White (46%)

Uhhhh, South Carolina's Black population only accounts for 28 percent of the entire population (as of 2013). So where did they get that split? They took it from the 2008 Democratic Primary, when Barrack Obama got more Black voters out than anyone thought possible.



That was true in 2008, but mainly because Obama was on the ticket.

that 53% is of the African American electorate that will make up the Democratic primary. It was 55% in 08.

 

[User 406]

Just found out about Scalia's death. My reaction: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ppqoILwgYZY

I'm playing this video all the way through, only so I can fully understand your reaction. That's the only reason. Really.

???????????????????????

Kasich above Cruz in the deep south?

OMG at those GOP positions. Kasich and Rubitron above the Canadian? This day is bonkers. Literally bonkers. BONKERS.

Moderate/establishment voters are going to Kasich as the literal only electable option.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

https://twitter.com/Eugene_Scott/status/698663135536877570

Cynical text of the night: "know of any Hispanic judges?"

 

[Makai]

You guys are cold-blooded.

 

[neurosisxeno]

that 53% is of the African American electorate that will make up the Democratic primary. It was 55% in 08.

I see that. I'm wondering why it is Black Voters show up in such large numbers in South Carolina compared to White Voters who outnumber them nearly 3:1 in the general population.

 

[Suikoguy]

Dang, I go out to get groceries, and went I come back, Scalia has passed away :\

That's a really unexpected Butterfly effect.

 

[Plinko]

Graham is absolutely insane to say something like that before anybody is nominated. This could be the tipping point in a presidential election. What is he thinking?

 

[Macho Madness]

I see that. I'm wondering why it is Black Voters show up in such large numbers in South Carolina compared to White Voters who outnumber them nearly 3:1 in the general population.

South Carolina is a deep red state. White liberals are the minority.

 

[Basileus777]

I see that. I'm wondering why it is Black Voters show up in such large numbers in South Carolina compared to White Voters who outnumber them nearly 3:1 in the general population.

Because black voters are overwhelmingly Democrats. The white vote is voting in the other party's primary.

 

[Kyosaiga]

Compilation of all the GOP Presidential Candidates reactions:

Ben Carson

It is imperative that the Senate not allow President Obama to diminish his legacy by trying to nominate an individual who would carry on his wishes to subvert the will of the People. Given the dire condition our democracy currently finds itself under Obama’s ideological agenda, I call on the Senate to stop any attempts to fill this crucial seat until We The People elect a strong Constitutionalist this November.

Marco Rubio

Today, our nation has suffered a deep loss. Justice Scalia was one of the most consequential Americans in our history and a brilliant legal mind who served with only one objective: to interpret and defend the Constitution as written. One of the greatest honors in my life was to attend oral arguments during Town of Greece v. Galloway and see Justice Scalia eloquently defend religious freedom. I will hold that memory forever. The next president must nominate a justice who will continue Justice Scalia’s unwavering belief in the founding principles that we hold dear. Jeanette and I mourn the loss of Justice Scalia, and our thoughts and prayers are with his wife Maureen and his family.

Ted Cruz

Justice Scalia was an American hero. We owe it to him, & the Nation, for the Senate to ensure that the next President names his replacement.

Donald Trump

The totally unexpected loss of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia is a massive setback for the Conservative movement and our COUNTRY!

Jeb Bush

Today we lost a great man whose principled service left our nation vastly better off. This afternoon at Mass, Columba and I prayed for Justice Scalia, who was devout in faith and has been brought home to God in heaven. Our prayers are also with his wife, Maureen, his children and his 28 grandchildren.

Justice Scalia was a brilliant defender of the rule of law — his logic and wit were unparalleled, and his decisions were models of clarity and good sense. I often said he was my favorite justice, because he took the Constitution, and the responsibility of judges to interpret it correctly, with the utmost seriousness. Now it is up to all of us to fight for the principles Justice Scalia espoused and carry fourth his legacy.

John Kasich

An essential, principled force for conservative thought and is a model for others to follow. His dedication to the Constitution and love for and service to our country will be deeply missed.”

 

[shinra-bansho]

That was true in 2008, but mainly because Obama was on the ticket.

Well, it was about 47% in '04. Which while less than the 53% weight in this poll should indicate it's not just Obama that makes the SC primary very different from the likes of NH and IA.

This is a primary electorate, not a general electorate so the statewide demographics aren't indicative. I'm not sure why this would be seen as unusual.

 

[neurosisxeno]

South Carolina is a deep red state. White liberals are the minority.

That's true, Romney walked away with 55% of the vote in 2012.

Because black voters are overwhelmingly Democrats. The white vote is voting in the other party's primary.

Yea I forgot to consider that the Republican Primary was probably 95%+ White.

 

[HylianTom]

I see that. I'm wondering why it is Black Voters show up in such large numbers in South Carolina compared to White Voters who outnumber them nearly 3:1 in the general population.

A general electorate does not look like a Democratic Party electorate.
edit: beaten!

 

[User 463088]

I see that. I'm wondering why it is Black Voters show up in such large numbers in South Carolina compared to White Voters who outnumber them nearly 3:1 in the general population.

Because you're talking about a partisan primary. AAs are far more likely to be a Democrat, especially in the south, than whites. The whites vote for the GOP, hence the reason the GOP carries the state every election.

 

[Macho Madness]

So Bush and Kasich hedged their bets and are the only two who did not call for the next president to nominate a judge. I guess Trump didn't either but I know the answer to that.

 

[dramatis]

Cause I have some really good idea for comic alter egos of the candidates.

PM NeoXChaos, he has the debate/primary thread assignments

 

[Suikoguy]

Thanks Kyosaiga for the compilation. Most of them are buying into this, 'no nomination until next year'. The dems have to be so ecstatic.

 

[RustyNails]

McConnell is absolutely insane to say something like that before anybody is nominated. This could be the tipping point in a presidential election. What is he thinking?

Scorched earth. Rile up conservatives and bring them to polls.