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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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NeoXChaos

Member
Cruz is never dropping out.

Stuart Stevens continues to be in denile.


@stuartpstevens If Trump is nominee (which seems shockingly possible), what will R's who detest him do? Stay home? Secretly vote D? Cry?

stuart stevens ‏@stuartpstevens 1h1 hour ago
stuart stevens Retweeted David Manson
I don't think a casino exec with Michael Moore's position on Iraq will be nominee.

Will Truman
‏@trumwill
@stuartpstevens How do you think the race gets from Point A (Trump comfortably ahead) to Point B (Trump loses)? Gimme some hope, man!

stuart stevens ‏@stuartpstevens 1h1 hour ago
stuart stevens Retweeted Will Truman
Really, it's not complicated. Somebody has to focus on Trump & beat him. That person wins. No one is yet trying.
 
Racist, rich white dude in his 60s, who likes firing people and wants to cut the rich's taxes by a lot, uses racism as a cudgel to beat his only real opponents while flip-flopping on important issues and having a left-leaning past on healthcare to get a 20 point lead on his opponents despite losing Iowa to a religious nutjob.

Donald Trump or Mitt Romney?
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Racist, rich white dude in his 60s, who likes firing people and wants to cut the rich's taxes by a lot, uses racism as a cudgel to beat his only real opponents while flip-flopping on important issues and having a left-leaning past on healthcare to get a 20 point lead on his opponents despite losing Iowa to a religious nutjob.

Donald Trump or Mitt Romney?

Yes.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
if trump wins SC why does he lose going by history? Past nominees have won NH and SC. He is following the traditional path. Rubio winning would be unprecedented.

He sweeps everything except for TX & Rubio is supposed to somehow overtake him by finally winning on March 15th with FL? get out of here.
 
if trump wins SC why does he lose going by history? Past nominees have won NH and SC. He is following the traditional path. Rubio winning would be unprecedented.

He sweeps everything except for TX & Rubio is supposed to somehow overtake him by finally winning on March 15th with FL? get out of here.

Forget Rubio, if Trump accomplishes that on Super Tuesday it will be incredibly hard to stop him from getting a majority of the delegates and ending all thoughts of a brokered convention. If Trump is not stopped by March 1st it will be over.
 
Yep. Nobody's attacked Trump consistently. Okay buddy. Let me guess, Stuart Stevens is a Politico writer.....

Incredibly, Stevens was the Romney national campaign manager. He's also talked repeatedly about running an establishment Republican as a third party candidate to help out with down ballot elections.
 
PPP did SC assuming only Trump, Cruz, and Rubio:

Trump: 40%
Cruz: 28%
Rubio: 22%

... This seems about what it would be in most states to be honest? I think the "fields narrows, Trump struggles" narrative may not be that accurate since this is how the field will probably narrow (the Jeb dream is dead)

Damn imagine if Cruz dropped out. Most of those voters would go to Trump.
 
Hey, Bernie Sanders supporters.

Explain to me how he's supposed to fund the College For All Act with a tax on speculation if they tried it in Sweden and it didn't produce the expected results?

http://www.businessinsider.com/swed...an-financial-transaction-tax-wont-work-2011-9

Transaction taxes:
- Reduce the efficiency of the market, which actually reduces the revenue produced by the tax
- Reduce investment in the market, which slows growth and kills jobs
- Has no noticeable effect on speculation, so it doesn't do what it's supposed to do

Anders Borg said:
The impact was basically that we did not get any tax revenue. It brought in very little tax money while moving most of the businesses outside of Sweden.
 
Perhaps I'm misunderstanding Trump's position, but the impression I'm getting from all this is that the party of rich people is being taken over by a dude who is basically telling rich people to fuck off (even though he's rich himself). It's kind of amazing.

Considering how this has all played out and how money in politics has become a #1 issue for some people I'm wondering if some Republicans secretly wish that Citizen's United hadn't gone the way it did. The increasing wealth gap + unlimited campaign financing is the perfect storm.
 

Iolo

Member
Politico said:
Abercrombie, a white former House Democratic colleague of Lewis and Sanders, wrote an anguished letter Friday to the Georgia congressman [John Lewis].

“I’m writing to you in a state of shock and disappointment as an admirer of long-standing and a colleague of more than two decades. Your remarks about Senator Sanders and his civil rights record are deeply offensive not only to me but to hundreds of thousands of others dedicated to and participants in the Civil Rights Movement,” the former governor wrote. “In all honesty, John, when did you become the doorkeeper at the entrance to the Civil Rights gate?

I'd guess right around the time Bernie Sanders became the gatekeeper of progressivism
 
Considering how this has all played out and how money in politics has become a #1 issue for some people I'm wondering if some Republicans secretly wish that Citizen's United hadn't gone the way it did. The increasing wealth gap + unlimited campaign financing is the perfect storm.

SuperPacs have been a mixed blessing at the Presidential level but they've helped Republicans win a ton of state and local races by swamping them with money.
 
Hey, Bernie Sanders supporters.

Explain to me how he's supposed to fund the College For All Act with a tax on speculation if they tried it in Sweden and it didn't produce the expected results?

http://www.businessinsider.com/swed...an-financial-transaction-tax-wont-work-2011-9

Transaction taxes:
- Reduce the efficiency of the market, which actually reduces the revenue produced by the tax
- Reduce investment in the market, which slows growth and kills jobs
- Has no noticeable effect on speculation, so it doesn't do what it's supposed to do
How much lower was the revenue than what they expected?

(I'm also expecting the actual cost of that plan to come out significantly higher than his campaign says it will, given its inability to stay realistic on its projected budgets & assumptions elsewhere.)
 
I'd guess right around the time Bernie Sanders became the gatekeeper of progressivism

What's the point of that letter anyway. Does he think John Lewis is going to read the letter and go "whoops, i screwed up!"? Leave the dude alone. He really doesn't need to go through this shit.

On a completely off-topic: There is nothing to gain for Obama to recess appoint now and everything to lose by not making the GOP go through their shitfit about confirmation hearings. It's simply not happening. If in the event that the next President is indeed Trump (and Hillary is behind bars), Obama can do a recess appointment in Jan next year before the next Congress begins.
 
What's the point of that letter anyway. Does he think John Lewis is going to read the letter and go "whoops, i screwed up!"? Leave the dude alone. He really doesn't need to go through this shit.

On a completely off-topic: There is nothing to gain for Obama to recess appoint now and everything to lose by not making the GOP go through their shitfit about confirmation hearings. It's simply not happening. If in the event that the next President is indeed Trump (and Hillary is behind bars), Obama can do a recess appointment in Jan next year before the next Congress begins.

I believe Obama has already said he's not doing a recess appointment.
 
How much lower was the revenue than what they expected?

(I'm also expecting the actual cost of that plan to come out significantly higher than his campaign says it will, given its inability to stay realistic on its projected budgets & assumptions elsewhere.)

Borg said:
...90%-99% of traders in bonds, equities and derivatives moved out of Stockholm to London...
.
 

pa22word

Member
That's correct, it's how Rauner won Illinois. That and utter apathy in the midterms
It's a double edged sword for the gop too. It might help a lot in the purple states, but in the deep red it can cause a tea party flank.

McConnell found this out the hard way when he ran tom Coburn out of Washington for dealing with the democrats and ended up having his seat lost to a tea party when "I have no outsider money" started getting thrown around as a campaign slogan.
 
SuperPacs have been a mixed blessing at the Presidential level but they've helped Republicans win a ton of state and local races by swamping them with money.

It doesn't help that the length of the presidential nomination process has been stretched out to a ridiculous extent because of the intense interest involved.

You need huge amounts of money to get off the ground. On the other hand radical views also gain traction due to the immense amounts of coverage if the money is not a problem.

All which contributes to a set of intensely fought battles by candidates of both parties measured in the span of years.

The best part is campaigning starts even earlier as a result of getting the message out due to the blowing up of the invisible primary and the rapid spread of information.
 
Ahahahahahahahahahahahaha "That would be a strong finish for him." Ahahahahaa God I love participation ribbon culture. So much SPIN.

"Participation trophies have destroyed America"-Political party that takes third place finishes as victories and once had a debate for people polling between 11th and 17th.
 
if trump wins SC why does he lose going by history? Past nominees have won NH and SC. He is following the traditional path. Rubio winning would be unprecedented.

He sweeps everything except for TX & Rubio is supposed to somehow overtake him by finally winning on March 15th with FL? get out of here.

It's possible given that the media and GOP establishment want him to win. I think we're getting close to the party consolidating behind someone, likely Rubio unless someone drops the bomb on him. The problem is that Bush isn't dropping out anytime soon and his people seem like they'll destroy Rubio as payback for "disloyalty." I'm guessing Kasich will drop out sometime in March, but I'm assuming that he doesn't catch on in many states outside of Ohio.

The establishment needs this to become a 1v1 but it doesn't seem like it's going to happen. Cruz has the money to last and plenty of states play to his strengths. Some might argue Trump v Cruz v Rubio would help the establishment by splitting the crazy vote but at this point it seems more like a recipe for multiple 40-35-25 finishes, with Trump on top.

Just watch, if Rubio comes in third in SC he'll get breathless media coverage about how he "came back" from a fatal NH loss. When you "win" by merely playing the game the facts don't matter.
 

Mr.Mike

Member
Hey, Bernie Sanders supporters.

Explain to me how he's supposed to fund the College For All Act with a tax on speculation if they tried it in Sweden and it didn't produce the expected results?

http://www.businessinsider.com/swed...an-financial-transaction-tax-wont-work-2011-9

Transaction taxes:
- Reduce the efficiency of the market, which actually reduces the revenue produced by the tax
- Reduce investment in the market, which slows growth and kills jobs
- Has no noticeable effect on speculation, so it doesn't do what it's supposed to do

What's with this business of trying to match specific taxes to specific spending?

Anyway, this tax sounds like it'd just ruin the arbitrage on my ETF's (and other things), which would be lame.
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
What's with this business of trying to match specific taxes to specific spending?

Anyway, this tax sounds like it'd just ruin the arbitrage on my ETF's (and other things), which would be lame.

Some Bernie supporters on my facebook lately have been posting a "how would it be paid for image" that links specific proposals to specific ideas like that, that's where that linkage came from. Not sure if it was official Sanders campaign material although it looked like it could have been
 
What's with this business of trying to match specific taxes to specific spending?

Anyway, this tax sounds like it'd just ruin the arbitrage on my ETF's (and other things), which would be lame.

Some Bernie supporters on my facebook lately have been posting a "how would it be paid for image" that links specific proposals to specific ideas like that, that's where that linkage came from. Not sure if it was official Sanders campaign material although it looked like it could have been

The speculation tax is precisely how he says he would fund it.
 
It's possible given that the media and GOP establishment want him to win. I think we're getting close to the party consolidating behind someone, likely Rubio unless someone drops the bomb on him. The problem is that Bush isn't dropping out anytime soon and his people seem like they'll destroy Rubio as payback for "disloyalty." I'm guessing Kasich will drop out sometime in March, but I'm assuming that he doesn't catch on in many states outside of Ohio.

The establishment needs this to become a 1v1 but it doesn't seem like it's going to happen. Cruz has the money to last and plenty of states play to his strengths. Some might argue Trump v Cruz v Rubio would help the establishment by splitting the crazy vote but at this point it seems more like a recipe for multiple 40-35-25 finishes, with Trump on top.

Just watch, if Rubio comes in third in SC he'll get breathless media coverage about how he "came back" from a fatal NH loss. When you "win" by merely playing the game the facts don't matter.

When he is in 5th in NH, Fox News had a huge caption on the bottom of the screen saying Rubio was fighting for 3rd place and they cut out of the 2nd place winner's speech to show Rubio's.
 

Mr.Mike

Member
Some Bernie supporters on my facebook lately have been posting a "how would it be paid for image" that links specific proposals to specific ideas like that, that's where that linkage came from. Not sure if it was official Sanders campaign material although it looked like it could have been

His website does specifically link this tax and free tuition.

Has proposed a financial transaction tax which will reduce risky and unproductive high-speed trading and other forms of Wall Street speculation; proceeds would be used to provide debt-free public college education.

https://berniesanders.com/issues/reforming-wall-street/
 
Exactly 2 weeks til Super Tuesday, how far we've come

March 1st
  1. Alabama
  2. Alaska *GOP*
  3. American Samoa *Dem*
  4. Arkansas
  5. Colorado
  6. Georgia
  7. Massachusetts
  8. Minnesota
  9. North Dakota *GOP*
  10. Oklahoma
  11. Tennessee
  12. Texas
  13. Vermont
  14. Virginia
  15. Wyoming *GOP*
 

kirblar

Member
Some Bernie supporters on my facebook lately have been posting a "how would it be paid for image" that links specific proposals to specific ideas like that, that's where that linkage came from. Not sure if it was official Sanders campaign material although it looked like it could have been
This quote is going to be useful to use in the future- http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/16/us/politics/left-leaning-economists-question-cost-of-bernie-sanderss-plans.html?smid=tw-share
Alluding to one progressive analyst’s criticism of the Sanders agenda as “puppies and rainbows,” Mr. Goolsbee said that after his and others’ further study, “they’ve evolved into magic flying puppies with winning Lotto tickets tied to their collars.”
 
Hey, Bernie Sanders supporters.

Explain to me how he's supposed to fund the College For All Act with a tax on speculation if they tried it in Sweden and it didn't produce the expected results?

http://www.businessinsider.com/swed...an-financial-transaction-tax-wont-work-2011-9

Transaction taxes:
- Reduce the efficiency of the market, which actually reduces the revenue produced by the tax
- Reduce investment in the market, which slows growth and kills jobs
- Has no noticeable effect on speculation, so it doesn't do what it's supposed to do

If I recall correctly the Swedish Transaction Tax also had a ton of loopholes. As it mentions, 90-99% of investors just moved to London and did their transactions from abroad, which allowed them to completely avoid the tax (not entirely sure on the specifics, but I know it was easy to avoid which is why the revenue was so shitty). The Swedish attempt was also between 0.1% and 0.5%, the tax proposed by Senator Sanders would be a much lower 0.01%.

The obvious solution is to ensure if you want to trade on our market you have to pay said tax, and because there are so many transactions daily, it is made up for in volume. It also cuts down on HFT which is a crapshoot of good and bad, which overall makes the market more stable. Obviously those 2 points are somewhat contradictory, but you can't have your cake and rip it off financially too. I think the biggest issue people seem to avoid comparing the 2, is that you can probably avoid Sweden's Market, but the US is so big it's almost impossible for any corporation not to trade on it.
 

Holmes

Member
One thing to remember about the Colorado, North Dakota and Wyoming GOP caucuses is that there not be any presidential preference voting, sort of like the Iowa Dem caucus. So no raw numbers.
 
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