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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Roland_Gunner said:
I feel like Clinton winning NV and getting SC by a huge (20+) margin shifts the narrative to a question if Sanders can win outside of his best states. That makes Super Tuesday do or die for him.
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I don't think she's going to win it by 20. The races naturally tighten over time, and Sanders will pick up more black voters as they learn more about him. I guess the real calculation is what she has to win by (and not a melkr_ style "if she doesn't win by 400 then really it's a bernie win"). Is 15 enough? I'm not sure. You kind of have to do a second order calculation to figure out what this means for minority voters nationally.

edit: I also think the marginal benefit of endorsements for Sanders is tremendously more positive than for Hillary. She has hundreds and they are sort of taken as given and are not focused on by the media. The remaining endorsements will get a lot of attention (and could be from influential endorsers).
 
D

Dixon's Jet

Banned
Veritigo_X said:
Jesus dude, you can't even respond to people's points without deflecting to something else.
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It's not a deflection. I have been saying that it's shameful to be friends with this holocaust baiting, murdering thug Kissinger. Realpolitik is no excuse for what Kissinger has done. And you can't exactly just dismiss Hillary's ties to Henry by saying it's OK to have friends. You need to do better than that if you're gonna do any justice at all for Kissinger's victims around the world. Clinton makes a mockery of them by saying she is friends with Kissinger.

danm999 said:
What, when she was in college?
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How about in the present while he's still alive.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Y2Kev said:
I don't think she's going to win it by 20. The races naturally tighten over time, and Sanders will pick up more black voters as they learn more about him. I guess the real calculation is what she has to win by (and not a melkr_ style "if she doesn't win by 400 then really it's a bernie win"). Is 15 enough? I'm not sure. You kind of have to do a second order calculation to figure out what this means for minority voters nationally.

edit: I also think the marginal benefit of endorsements for Sanders is tremendously more positive than for Hillary. She has hundreds and they are sort of taken as given and are not focused on by the media. The remaining endorsements will get a lot of attention (and could be from influential endorsers).
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If Jim Clyburn breaks for Clinton it would probably be notable though.

In retrospect, I think maybe Sanders' last minute meeting with Obama might have helped a little prior to Iowa; after his near-endorsement in that interview of Clinton.

This scorecard implies Clinton should be aiming for at least 28 out of the 53 SC delegates. But it underestimates and overestimates respectively the Clinton and Sanders targets, I'd say, given it's counting her current superdelegates that would probably start switching.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
shinra-bansho said:
If Jim Clyburn breaks for Clinton it would probably be notable though.

In retrospect, I think maybe Sanders' last minute meeting with Obama might have helped a little prior to Iowa; after his near-endorsement in that interview of Clinton.

This scorecard implies Clinton should be aiming for at least 28 out of the 53 SC delegates. But it underestimates and overestimates respectively the Clinton and Sanders targets, I'd say, given it's counting her current superdelegates that would probably start switching.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...n-as-harry-reid-reiterates-neutrality-pledge/

This is the latest I saw on this. If he is going to jump in, I guess it will happen this week.

edit: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/influential-s-c-democrat-james-clyburn-considering-2016-endorsement/ Oh this is more recent. I wonder why so many voters went from decided to undecided.
 
N

neurosisxeno

Member
Y2Kev said:
Oh this is more recent. I wonder why so many voters went from decided to undecided.
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Clinton is starting to crack. She has been substantially less effective in the debates after O'Malley dropped out because she's forced to go all in on 1 person. When she was going against Obama in 2008 it was fine because he would hit back--Sanders is staying on message the entire time and not getting dragged down. In my mind Clinton looks like a bully in the debates, and she has started slipping up here and there as she stretches to prove she's the better choice--I think the Kissinger line was insanity and she seems to be trying to hard to copy large swaths of Bernie's message every chance she gets.
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
Yoda said:
*fake Kissinger quote *
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You have to swallow quite a bit to be willing to be buddies with this guy. But more importantly if she respects such politics, that means she doesn't view it (entirely) as a moral albatross. Foreign policy is a game of picking the least shitty option, but Henry opted to invent options which didn't appear to most men; unfortunately these options resulted in hundreds of thousands of innocents losing their lives.
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No, Kissinger never really said that. The first reference was three degrees of hearsay.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Cesare Borgia said:
The demise of Rubio was greatly exaggerated. Can't count someone out who has complete media access like that.

Imagine if Bush comes in last...wow.
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He is 17 points back of Trump. That's like his campaign manager bragging about the third place finish in Iowa.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
neurosisxeno said:
Clinton is starting to crack. She has been substantially less effective in the debates after O'Malley dropped out because she's forced to go all in on 1 person. When she was going against Obama in 2008 it was fine because he would hit back--Sanders is staying on message the entire time and not getting dragged down. In my mind Clinton looks like a bully in the debates, and she has started slipping up here and there as she stretches to prove she's the better choice--I think the Kissinger line was insanity and she seems to be trying to hard to copy large swaths of Bernie's message every chance she gets.
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I don't agree with that at all; her last debate was by far her most effective. I think her numbers de-solidify a bit as a competitor gains a bit of momentum and attention (and as younger voters move from solid H to undecided).
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Yoda said:
You have to swallow quite a bit to be willing to be buddies with this guy. But more importantly if she respects such politics, that means she doesn't view it (entirely) as a moral albatross. Foreign policy is a game of picking the least shitty option, but Henry opted to invent options which didn't appear to most men; unfortunately these options resulted in hundreds of thousands of innocents losing their lives.
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Whoa. Wait. Kissinger never said that. What are you talking about?
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
crazy-hillary.jpg

At breaking point. Disarray. FBI. Benghazi.

Arf, arf, arf.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Dixon's Jet said:
Whether or not the quote is real the overall point that Kissinger has at least hundreds of thousands of lives to his name is true.
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Uh, no. You can't just attribute bullshit to people to buttress an argument regardless of what you perceive to be the value of your overall point. Are you Donald Trump?

I don't like Kissinger; I don't see virtue in any line of argument that would make me defend him. Is it not enough to simply state what he did and thinks rather than falsified comments to make him seem like a cartoon villain?
 
N

neurosisxeno

Member
Y2Kev said:
I don't agree with that at all; her last debate was by far her most effective. I think her numbers de-solidify a bit as a competitor gains a bit of momentum and attention (and as younger voters move from solid H to undecided).
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I completely disagree about her last 2 debates even. The second to last one was her going borderline Rubio dropping the word Progressive every sentence to ensure people she comparable to Sanders, and her last debate was a lot of pretending she was a victim of unjustified attacks while her closing statement was literally "Hey I'm like Bernie on all the important stuff!"

I didn't mention it in my earlier post, but I think the other thing is peoples distrust in Clinton is slowly eroding her support. As she kind of crawls to the left each debate and her somewhat amorphous stances become more clear, peoples distrust seems to grow. Sanders might not have the best answers, but he has consistency and the people believe him--even those that don't support him so far.

Melkr_ said:
Gravis

Clinton 59
Sanders 41

If he goes below 15 points sdajfsdhfsdj
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That's starting to get close for Gravis who I think was predicting a tie in NH or something equally as dumb.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Y2Kev said:
I don't think she's going to win it by 20. The races naturally tighten over time, and Sanders will pick up more black voters as they learn more about him.

edit: I also think the marginal benefit of endorsements for Sanders is tremendously more positive than for Hillary. She has hundreds and they are sort of taken as given and are not focused on by the media.
Click to expand...

We'll see in another 11 days but I figure that Sanders should have gotten a big surge from New Hampshire which will fade in time. This is probably my Clinton support filtering through, but I also think some voters will reconsider when they hear more about the downside to some of Sanders' plans.

Certainly one endorsement for Sanders is more valuable than the same for Clinton but you have to give more weight to someone like bona fide Civil Rights hero John Lewis than a random state senator in SC.
 
D

Dixon's Jet

Banned
Y2Kev said:
Uh, no. You can't just attribute bullshit to people to buttress an argument regardless of what you perceive to be the value of your overall point. Are you Donald Trump?
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No, but making up a lie like that about Kissinger has the effect of surprise. Like "wow I can't believe Kissinger didn't say that." It's ironic. Better to just use a real quote since you can find them.
 
A

And_Gignac

Member
S

shinra-bansho

Member
I think you're projecting your perception onto reality. I don't think the last debate moved much of anything. I don't think either shone. Both are occasionally one-note, given there's some new audience in each debate to appeal to and that has to be balanced with returning viewers.

I'm more interested in seeing what impact Scalia's death has.
Wilsongt said:
A two hour nap and still talking about Kissinger? Damn.
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I think the fun part is that a lot of people didn't know or care he even existed a couple weeks ago until it became an attack line. So I guess at the very least it's a nice educational discussion.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
neurosisxeno said:
I completely disagree about her last 2 debates even. The second to last one was her going borderline Rubio dropping the word Progressive every sentence to ensure people she comparable to Sanders, and her last debate was a lot of pretending she was a victim of unjustified attacks while her closing statement was literally "Hey I'm like Bernie on all the important stuff!"

I didn't mention it in my earlier post, but I think the other thing is peoples distrust in Clinton is slowly eroding her support. As she kind of crawls to the left each debate and her somewhat amorphous stances become more clear, peoples distrust seems to grow. Sanders might not have the best answers, but he has consistency and the people believe him--even those that don't support him so far.



That's starting to get close for Gravis who I think was predicting a tie in NH or something equally as dumb.
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Gravis' final poll had Bernie up 16.
 
I

Iolo

Member
neurosisxeno said:
I completely disagree about her last 2 debates even. The second to last one was her going borderline Rubio dropping the word Progressive every sentence to ensure people she comparable to Sanders, and her last debate was a lot of pretending she was a victim of unjustified attacks while her closing statement was literally "Hey I'm like Bernie on all the important stuff!"
Click to expand...

She artfully got under his skin a couple times in the last debate. Not that anybody under the age of 65, except PoliGAF, was watching.

Also remember, Clinton may be cracking, but the light that burns twice as bright Berns half as long.
 
N

neurosisxeno

Member
Y2Kev said:
Gravis' final poll had Bernie up 16.
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I must have missed that one, apologies. I remember seeing polls a few months out that had Bernie like 5-8 points up and Gravis was predicting literally the opposite. They have consistently overstated Clinton's support.

Iolo said:
She artfully got under his skin a couple times in the last debate. Not that anybody under the age of 65, except PoliGAF, was watching.
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She definitely did, but Sanders also managed to stay on message through most of those attacks. I think Clinton was banking on it throwing him off and him just shouting like a deranged madman up there--but that didn't happen. She can't really get more aggressive than that without playing right into Bernie's message.

There's also all this business with Superdelegates and the DNC lifting the ban on lobbyists--people are starting to lose faith in the DNC and their chosen candidate which is clearly Clinton.
 
K

kirblar

Member
Necessary reminder that momentum is not a thing in polling #s.
There's also all this business with Superdelegates and the DNC lifting the ban on lobbyists--people are starting to lose faith in the DNC and their chosen candidate which is clearly Clinton.
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That's not what's going on. It's because Sanders is losing, and because so many of his supporters are True Believers, the only explanation can be that people are cheating to keep him down, rather than people actually preferring another candidate to him.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Dixon's Jet said:
No, but making up a lie like that about Kissinger has the effect of surprise. Like "wow I can't believe Kissinger didn't say that." It's ironic.
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Don't be another ErasureAcer, please. Once's enough. Just admit that it's a dumb idea to criticize people using things they did not actually say and move on. If your point is good* you won't need to fabulate to argue it.


* It is not, you are wrong.
 
N

neurosisxeno

Member
kirblar said:
That's not what's going on. It's because Sanders is losing, and because so many of his supporters are True Believers, the explanation can be that people are cheating to keep him down, rather than people actually preferring another candidate to him.
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But that's not how the system works. Ideally the system would rewards equal representation based on voters desires--that's not what is happening. I realize we're not a representative democracy, but you can't claim it's a democratic process when the powers that be can just give support to whomever they want. How can Bernie and Hillary tie in IA, and he blows her out in NH, and she still has more delegates (not even counting unpledged delegates from other states, of which she has like 350)?

We can't tell people every vote is important and then the Democratic Party just ignores them.
 
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