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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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U

User 463088

Banned
There are some worrisome things in the PPP poll for Bernie, especially for any deep south primary. I'm not talking about the AA issues, because we all know how that ship is going at the moment. His unfavorables among people older than 46 is not good. His favorable/unfavorables among Democrats is also going to be a big issue in any state that's a closed primary/caucus. (Which, again, we already knew). His "Don't Know" numbers are also ridiculous. He's been running for months. There have been two primaries. He's not making inroads where he should have all this time.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Y2Kev said:
When do the primaries start closing?
Click to expand...

Closed Caucuses
NV
American Somoa
CO
KS
NE
ME
AL
HI
WY
Virgin Islands
Guam

I assume most of these except for CO and WY have same day registration

Closed Primaries
LA
Democrats Abroad
NY
CT
DE
MD
PA
NM
FL
DC

The rest are open, semi-open and semi-closed like IA and NH
 
Q

QuiteWhittle

Member
NeoXChaos said:
Closed Caucuses
NV
American Somoa
CO
KS
NE
ME
AL
HI
WY
Virgin Islands
Guam

I assume most of these except for CO and WY have same day registration

Closed Primaries
LA
Democrats Abroad
NY
CT
DE
MD
PA
NM
DC

The rest are open, semi-open and semi-closed like IA and NH
Click to expand...

Florida isn't closed?
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
For Saturday:
Nevada's Democratic Caucuses commence at 1100PT, with no listed end time.

South Carolina's Republican Primary has polls open from 0700 to 1900ET.

(Do your junk food/drinky-poo shopping ahead of time!)
 
F

Frank the Great

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
Closed Caucuses
NV
American Somoa
CO
KS
NE
ME
AL
HI
WY
Virgin Islands
Guam

I assume most of these except for CO and WY have same day registration

Closed Primaries
LA
Democrats Abroad
NY
CT
DE
MD
PA
NM
FL
DC

The rest are open, semi-open and semi-closed like IA and NH
Click to expand...

I thought NJ is closed?
 
C

CCS

Banned
thepotatoman said:
Three way race:
Donald "It was a great night for Mexico" Trump 40
Rubio 28
Cruz 22

Head to head:
Donald "It was a great night for Mexico" Trump 50
Jeb 40

Donald "It was a great night for Mexico" Trump 48
Cruz 38

Donald "It was a great night for Mexico" Trump 46
Rubio 45

You need everyone but Rubio to drop out just to have a chance to take out Donald "It was a great night for Mexico" Trump.
Click to expand...

63e.gif
 
V

Veritigo_X

Member
From the PPP poll:

George W. Bush Favorability

Base 64/25
Bush 92/4
Carson 69/15
Cruz 77/16
Kasich 59/31
Rubio 73/16
Trump 48/41

Trump's comments about W probably aren't going to cause any damage against him.
 
C

CCS

Banned
I wonder how elections would go in a hypothetical society where every mass media outlet reported news in a calm, balanced, and sensible fashion.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Ralston was once again on MSNBC this morning. If giving a point spread, he'd set Hillary as a 5-point favorite in Nevada. He says he bases this not on actual data, but on the behavior of the Clinton campaign. I don't know quite what to think about this.
 
S

Snowman Prophet of Doom

Member
I'm not saying this won't be a consequential election, but panicking at minutia over a situation that, outside of the ballot box, is out of your control helps nobody, and is bad for your health. There needs to be a safe word for all the Diablosing people do to themselves in this thread.
 
M

Maledict

Member
Y2Kev said:
Politico is TRASH
Click to expand...

teruterubozu said:
Yup, sorry I forgot he was basically 2nd place all the way.
Click to expand...

Nope! ;-)

Santorum plummeted after Iowa, and basically vanished from the campaign for the next few states. Romney won New Hampshire by miles, but the. Gingrich took Sotuh Carolina. In response Florida turned into ground Zero, with Romney, his super pax and the establishment burying Gingrich in negative ads. Santorum was missing from all of this, and generally was polling low single digits in these states.

After Gingrich was finally put to bed, Santorum then established a surprise comeback in the mid-west states, winning three beauty contests in one night after being written off by everyone. That again threatened to overwhelm Romney, until he finally clinched it by beating him in Michigan.

2012s story was about Romney versus a challenger - who that was depended upon the time and the place, but there was never a clear second place rival. It also showed how Superpacs can work - if it wasn't for his pacs absolutely flattening Gingrich (first in Iowa, then in Florida), it could have gone very differently. His team described their operation against Newt as 'carpet bombing' for a reason - they threw the whole kitchen sink at him.
 
T

Teggy

Member
Holmes said:
Interesting, but that South Carolina result would be pretty bad for Clinton. Here's my take at the moment.

NV: 52-48 Clinton
SC: 61-38 Clinton
VT: 72-27 Sanders
AR: 59 - 41 Clinton
OK: 57 - 43 Clinton
MN: 55 - 45 Sanders
TN: 59 - 40 Clinton
TX: 61 - 39 Clinton
VA: 58 - 42 Clinton
CO: 53 - 47 Sanders
MA: 54 - 45 Sanders
GA: 63 - 37 Clinton
AL: 61 - 38 Clinton
Click to expand...

Is this based on some secret polling or just wishful thinking?

When Sanders had taken over by 5-10 points in NH he was still 30 pts behind in Mass. He's not that popular here.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Teggy said:
Is this based on some secret polling or just wishful thinking?

When Sanders had taken over by 5-10 points in NH he was still 30 pts behind in Mass. He's not that popular here.
Click to expand...

For reasons that are unclear to me everybody is convinced Bernie will win Massachusetts. I guess because it's pretty white and collegiate.

I tend to think that Mass is the archetypal example of an establishment Dem state and I expect Hillary to win it. I will be pretty surprised if she doesn't.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
pigeon said:
For reasons that are unclear to me everybody is convinced Bernie will win Massachusetts. I guess because it's pretty white and collegiate.

I tend to think that Mass is the archetypal example of an establishment Dem state and I expect Hillary to win it. I will be pretty surprised if she doesn't.
Click to expand...

why is that?
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
HylianTom said:
Ralston was once again on MSNBC this morning. If giving a point spread, he'd set Hillary as a 5-point favorite in Nevada. He says he bases this not on actual data, but on the behavior of the Clinton campaign. I don't know quite what to think about this.
Click to expand...

It's a dead heat!!!!!!!

We have no polls from Nevada, so trying to discern any sort of spread with a tangible number seems silly.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
why is that?
Click to expand...

Mass has always had a strong Democratic machine. Party people do best there. Even with Kennedy's endorsement, Obama didn't win the state. Hillary won it by 16. Outside of Warren, Hillary has every other state level Dem on her team already. Plus, Bernie didn't open his headquarters there until like a week before the voter registration deadline.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
-70% think the Confederate flag should still be flying over the State Capital, to only 20% who agree with it being taken down. In fact 38% of Trump voters say they wish the South had won the Civil War to only 24% glad the North won and 38% who aren't sure. Overall just 36% of Republican primary voters in the state are glad the North emerged victorious to 30% for the South, but Trump's the only one whose supporters actually wish the South had won.

-By an 80/9 spread, Trump voters support his proposed ban on Muslims entering the United States. In fact 31% would support a ban on homosexuals entering the United States as well, something no more than 17% of anyone else's voters think is a good idea. There's also 62/23 support among Trump voters for creating a national database of Muslims and 40/36 support for shutting down all the mosques in the United States, something no one else's voters back. Only 44% of Trump voters think the practice of Islam should even be legal at all in the United States, to 33% who think it should be illegal. To put all the views toward Muslims in context though, 32% of Trump voters continue to believe the policy of Japanese internment during World War II was a good one, compared to only 33% who oppose it and 35% who have no opinion one way or another.
Click to expand...


............................. But Trump supporters aren't racist?
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Ralston seems to be enjoying the attention.

But I also don't think he's that far off. All the national polling and state polling do indicate that Sanders is gaining momentum and the race is tightening. The problem with Jon's assertions is that he's only going by the Clinton campaign's moves in Nevada and using that to think it's tightening and will be close. From what we've heard, the Clinton ground game in Nevada is smart, organized and hitting all of the points it should. The Sanders game from what we've heard is a lot less organized but is riding the wave of momentum right now. But all of that momentum is lost if they don't win Nevada or come close in South Carolina.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Macho Madness said:
Ralston seems to be enjoying the attention.

But I also don't think he's that far off. All the national polling and state polling do indicate that Sanders is gaining momentum and the race is tightening. The problem with Jon's assertions is that he's only going by the Clinton campaign's moves in Nevada and using that to think it's tightening and will be close. From what we've heard, the Clinton ground game in Nevada is smart, organized and hitting all of the points it should. The Sanders game from what we've heard is a lot less organized but is riding the wave of momentum right now. But all of that momentum is lost if they don't win Nevada or come close in South Carolina.
Click to expand...

Agreed. NV will be another nail biter for sure. There is no way in hell Clinton pulls out a NH sized win there.
 
C

CCS

Banned
So 1/3 of the Republican base are insane/insanely bigoted. Who would have known?

Seriously though, what the actual fuck.
 
C

CCS

Banned
So both nationally and in SC, Jeb Bush is being outpolled by Carson, a candidate who doesn't seem to actually have any sort of campaign or organisation whatsoever. I think it's time to play the world's tiniest violin.
 
G

Gruco

Banned
Bernie's economics problem is every bit as real and substantial as his foreign policy problem

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/16/u...t-of-bernie-sanderss-plans.html?smid=tw-share
http://qz.com/610963/bernie-sanders-refusal-to-reveal-his-economic-advisers-is-an-ominous-sign/

nyt said:
By the reckoning of the left-of-center economists, none of whom are working for Mrs. Clinton, the proposals would add $2 trillion to $3 trillion a year on average to federal spending; by comparison, total federal spending is projected to be above $4 trillion in the next president’s first year. “The numbers don’t remotely add up,” said Austan Goolsbee, formerly chairman of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, now at the University of Chicago.
Click to expand...
nyt said:
While calling Mr. Friedman’s work a good effort, Mr. Bernstein cited several assumptions as “wishful thinking.” Among them were minimal health-cost inflation, economic growth reaching 5.3 percent and, in that heated-up economy, no action from the Federal Reserve to apply brakes.
Click to expand...
nyt said:
But Kenneth E. Thorpe, a prominent health policy economist at Emory University who advised the Clintons in the 1990s, recently concluded that Mr. Sanders’s health plan would cost $27 trillion, not $14 trillion, which would put total spending for all of his initiatives above $30 trillion through 2026.
Click to expand...
qz said:
But despite repeated inquiries, Sanders’ campaign won’t tell Quartz, or anyone else, which economists he is talking to, or who he plans to appoint to high-level positions if he becomes president. What kind of experience does he think is is relevant, beyond not working in the financial sector? No one knows.
Click to expand...
qz said:
He told the Hill newspaper in October that he considered the Nobel prize-winning economists Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz important influences. But Krugman has been critical of Sanders’ plans for healthcare and financial reform, while Stiglitz is also claimed as an adviser by Sanders’ rival, Hillary Clinton. Update, 2/7/16: Asked about his work on political campaigns, Stiglitz relayed to Quartz that he spoke with Clinton’s campaign staff several times in 2015.
Click to expand...
A few of the specific problems people here are broadly aware of, such as the magical cost saving assumptions for health care, and unrealistic revenue projections from a financial transaction tax. But it goes well beyond that. Much like how his campaign has no real foreign policy advisors, liberal economists almost to a person criticize his proposals. I don't think he has any advisors of note, speaking both of those economists with policy experience as well as academics from the most highly regarded programs. Which of course, is why his proposals are so bad.

So, to recap, Bernie Sanders

  1. Wants to ignore the progress of the 111th Congress and refight those battles, instead of moving on to other important issues.
  2. Has no legislative strategy to empower him to do this, other than wishful thinking about a geographically impossible political revolution.
  3. Is routinely criticized by liberal economists, and has no real support among economists, leading to shoddy policy proposals that wouldn't work even if said imaginary revolution happened.
  4. Is both ignorant about and indifferent towards foreign policy, making him unqualified to engage in the area where the president has the most direct power.
  5. Apparently thinks he can pardon people in state prison.
 
A

And_Gignac

Member
adam387 said:
There are some worrisome things in the PPP poll for Bernie, especially for any deep south primary. I'm not talking about the AA issues, because we all know how that ship is going at the moment. His unfavorables among people older than 46 is not good. His favorable/unfavorables among Democrats is also going to be a big issue in any state that's a closed primary/caucus. (Which, again, we already knew). His "Don't Know" numbers are also ridiculous. He's been running for months. There have been two primaries. He's not making inroads where he should have all this time.
Click to expand...

His "Dont Know" are not a bad thing. Most people wont be aware of him until their state primary gets closer, so that gives him a lot of potential to grow. PPP also leans Clinton by A LOT. I think it is fair to judge the pollster by their results in the current race, and PPP comically skews Clinton: They had Clinton+8 in IW and Clinton+3 in their last NH poll (first week of January, I wonder why they decided not to poll the place later on?)

Lets use Morning Consult latest poll as a guide: Bernie is at 26% with AA voters and at 44% vs 52% with Hispanics. He already has more support with black and hispanic voters than Clinton and Obama had in 08, respectively. Obama was trounced 2:1 (65% vs 35%) with Hispanics and Clinton garnered just 17% of black votes.

So yeah, he is making tons of inroads.
 
J

Jack Remington

Banned
PopcornMegaphone said:
There was an article I can't find that basically explains why nationalized health care will cost more in the US. I remember, one of the reasons is we can't all of a sudden cut because we can't cut salaries of healthcare workers. Does anyone know of the link I'm referring to?
Click to expand...

Kristoffer said:
That was a widely circulated post from the Bloomberg View. http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-04-30/single-payer-would-make-health-care-worse
Click to expand...

Lol, Megan McArdle. She's a goddamn moron. She's occasionally correct about a few things, but by and large is an awful, awful analyst.
 
B

BoboBrazil

Member
Looks like Jeb is going to stop wearing the glasses and stand up straight now to appear like a stronger candidate since yesterday. W must have told him to do this.

Also CNN is running the story about Hilary barking like a dog. Shame on you CNN.
 
A

And_Gignac

Member
BoboBrazil said:
Looks like Jeb is going to stop wearing the glasses and stand up straight now to appear like a stronger candidate since yesterday. W must have told him to do this.

Also CNN is running the story about Hilary barking like a dog. Shame on you CNN.
Click to expand...

https://vine.co/v/ivqn5HQwLDF

messy.

The optics omg.

ivysaur12 said:
The Don't Know is bad because this is not a situation like Iowa where these contests are going to be months apart from each other. Starting in two weeks, there will be multiple states with multiple primaries and caucuses happening every week or so. If you're not a name by then or people don't know who you are, that's a huge problem.
Click to expand...

He can only go up when ads roll in and election hype captures the conversation. I really dont see it as a bad thing, considering he is probably at <10% in nationals. Its a privilege Clinton does not have.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Melkr_ said:
His "Dont Know" are not a bad thing. Most people wont be aware of him until their state primary gets closer, so that gives him a lot of potential to grow. PPP also leans Clinton by A LOT. I think it is fair to judge the pollster by their results in the current race, and PPP comically skews Clinton: They had Clinton+8 in IW and Clinton+3 in their last NH poll (first week of January, I wonder why they decided not to poll the place later on?)

Lets use Morning Consult latest poll as a guide: Bernie is at 26% with AA voters and at 44% vs 52% with Hispanics. He already has more support with black and hispanic voters than Clinton and Obama had in 08, respectively. Obama was trounced 2:1 (65% vs 35%) with Hispanics and Clinton garnered just 17% of black votes.

So yeah, he is making tons of inroads.
Click to expand...

The Don't Know is bad because this is not a situation like Iowa where these contests are going to be months from now. Starting in two weeks, there will be multiple states with multiple primaries and caucuses happening every week or so. If you're not a name by then or people don't know who you are, that's a huge problem.
 
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