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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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I mean, with a handful of exceptions on here and outside, in my experience it's either been people who literally have no experience with losing and/or public policy, or [a symphony of air horns somehow obscures the rest of this post].

(Three of the exceptions: brainchild is Mirror Metaphoreus, disastermouse is secretly a reincarnation of Lenin from 1916, and y'all already know Melkr_ is running down a flight of stairs toward this post.)

And now you gotta write a short description for every exception. It is known.
 

benjipwns

Banned
I mean, with a handful of exceptions on here and outside, in my experience it's either been people who literally have no experience with losing and/or public policy, or [a symphony of air horns somehow obscures the rest of this post].

(Three of the exceptions: brainchild is Mirror Metaphoreus, disastermouse is secretly a reincarnation of Lenin from 1916, and y'all already know Melkr_ is running down a flight of stairs toward this post.)
typical establishment hack leaving out a true independent anti-corporatist voice

you probably don't even watch the #1 marxist on youtube
 
typical establishment hack leaving out a true independent anti-corporatist voice

you probably don't even watch the #1 marxist on youtube

An anti-corporatist that watches youtube? My oh my, do you sip a pumpkin mocha chai venti salted caramel organic vegan tea coffee latte while doing that too?
 

Eidan

Member
Case in point:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jx1XDOZkbZU

It's like he literally studies Obama's speaking pattern and mannerisms and emulates it. Except you can tell he's faking it, so he comes across especially politician-y.
I was expecting to see exactly what you were talking about, but honestly, outside of using the same hand gesture Obama uses, and having a pre-canned talking point on the benefits of HUD (which is to be expected), I'm not seeing it.
 

benjipwns

Banned
An anti-corporatist that watches youtube? My oh my, do you sip a pumpkin mocha chai venti salted caramel organic vegan tea coffee latte while doing that too?
Google is the vanguard of the proletariat.

i would never drink vegan tea

Case in point:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jx1XDOZkbZU

It's like he literally studies Obama's speaking pattern and mannerisms and emulates it. Except you can tell he's faking it, so he comes across especially politician-y.
I was expecting to see exactly what you were talking about, but honestly, outside of using the same hand gesture Obama uses, and having a pre-canned talking point on the benefits of HUD (which is to be expected), I'm not seeing it.
I didn't really either.

I've heard it described (at least when they give speeches) as "five beats up, three beats down."

I've never actually counted.
 
The more I look at the line up of primary/caucus states, the more I think Michigan is going to be hugely important. Maybe the most important state of all of them just due to the nature of media narratives and the usual horse race silliness. I think Bernie winning Michigan on March 8th will largely determine if this is over in three weeks or if it goes all the way to California. The story will be that Hillary won Super Tuesday narrowly overall, but then on March 5th Bernie will probably win 3 out of those 4 states which = "Bernie comeback!" in the media. At that point, Michigan will determine if Hillary is insurmountable and Bernie put up a good fight, or if Bernie is the real deal and some states that Hillary thought were safe are swinging toward Sanders.

What might also be troubling for Hillary is that if Bernie takes Michigan, we're probably going to start seeing people poke at the theory that Hillary can't pull off a decisive win outside of the south. Arizona will probably be her first chance to shut down that notion but it doesn't vote until the 22nd.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Just to note, in-state pollsters for Michigan don't agree with PPP, they had Hillary at 30 point leads.

I asked someone at MIRS last week and they seemed to suggest hearing it was still above 20.
 
If (operative word, if) she does come out of Super Tuesday with a 100-150 pledged delegate lead as in those polls; then I don't see how eking out wins in small white caucus states on the 5th would lead to a comeback narrative. Especially if any net delegate advantage he gained from them was essentially wiped out by the Louisiana primary.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Just how long is she going to drag this out out of some narcissistic fantasy?
Code:
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton	Quinnipiac	Clinton 44, Trump 43	Clinton +1
General Election: Cruz vs. Clinton	Quinnipiac	Cruz 46, Clinton 43	Cruz +3
General Election: Rubio vs. Clinton	Quinnipiac	Rubio 48, Clinton 41	Rubio +7
General Election: Kasich vs. Clinton	Quinnipiac	Kasich 47, Clinton 39	Kasich +8
General Election: Bush vs. Clinton	Quinnipiac	Clinton 43, Bush 44	Bush +1

General Election: Trump vs. Sanders	Quinnipiac	Sanders 48, Trump 42	Sanders +6
General Election: Cruz vs. Sanders	Quinnipiac	Sanders 49, Cruz 39	Sanders +10
General Election: Rubio vs. Sanders	Quinnipiac	Sanders 47, Rubio 41	Sanders +6
General Election: Kasich vs. Sanders	Quinnipiac	Sanders 45, Kasich 41	Sanders +4
General Election: Bush vs. Sanders	Quinnipiac	Sanders 49, Bush 39	Sanders +10
It's time for some party leaders, and maybe her husband, to start calling for her to drop out and save The Party.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Yep; the 22nd only bars presidents from serving more than two terms and/or being on a ticket after two terms.

(Though yeah, not sure why he'd want four more years of this shit.)
One key linguistic distinction here that may be considerable:
The 22nd Amendment only bars one path to the Presidency: election. It stays silent on the other path to the Presidency: succession.

Section 1. No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once. But this article shall not apply to any person holding the office of President when this article was proposed by the Congress, and shall not prevent any person who may be holding the office of President, or acting as President, during the term within which this article becomes operative from holding the office of President or acting as President during the remainder of such term.

A two-termed could still serve as President once again; he/she would just have to succeed into the office. So, for instance, if a former President were designated survivor on State of the Union Night and Congress blew-up, there's nothing in that amendment preventing him/her from ascending into the office.

And if the authors had intended to prevent such a route, they should've chosen their words more carefully.
 

benjipwns

Banned
And if the authors had intended to prevent such a route, they should've chosen their words more carefully.
They probably didn't expect a two-term President to enter the cabinet and orchestrate the murder of the line of succession above them.

Now, after the criminal regimes of LBJ, Nixon, Clinton and Obama, we know better.
 
If (operative word, if) she does come out of Super Tuesday with a 100-150 pledged delegate lead as in those polls; then I don't see how eking out wins in small white caucus states on the 5th would lead to a comeback narrative. Especially if any net delegate advantage he gained from them was essentially wiped out by the Louisiana primary.

The news shows love their narratives. I certainly don't expect them to say "Yeah, Bernie won three of the four but Hillary's still leading on delegates so whatever he's done."
 

benjipwns

Banned
Could depend on the comparative state of the Republican race.

If Ben Carson slaughters everyone and walks away with 95% of the delegates...
 
Ben Carson would like to thank you for including him in this primary.

Saw Abuela Pandillary's new Nevada ad on the Times site. Nice planted Hispanic girl. Good fake crying.
The news shows love their narratives. I certainly don't expect them to say "Yeah, Bernie won three of the four but Hillary's still leading on delegates so whatever he's done."
I wouldn't expect that byline either. However, it would be hard to turn a day in which she extended her lead into a comeback story. (I.e. if in this crystal ball she wins Louisiana as currently polled she'd gain something like a 19 delegate advantage, so he'd probably need to rout her in the three caucus states not just win them.)

Although I guess Rubiomentum means anything that can be spun will be.
 

benjipwns

Banned
I'll have you know Ben Carson sent me a nice personal letter thanking me for my support and informing me that he needed another contribution to help keep up the fight.
 
What if Hillary just picked a moderate republican as VP? I don't like any of the Dem picks. A republican governor with electoral college impact and not crazy....Kasich?
Lincoln picking a moderate democrat as VP seemed like a good idea at the time

Turned out to be the worst decision in the history of the world.

It doesn't matter how moderate a republican is, you can't hand the presidency to the other party and you'd do that if anything happened to you when picking an opposing VP
 
Lincoln picking a moderate democrat as VP seemed like a good idea at the time

Turned out to be the worst decision in the history of the world.

It doesn't matter how moderate a republican is, you can't hand the presidency to the other party and you'd do that if anything happened to you when picking an opposing VP

That is called the "Never give a VP additional incentive to murder you" rule.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Lincoln picking a moderate democrat as VP seemed like a good idea at the time

Turned out to be the worst decision in the history of the world.
I was going to make a comment about how he was a pro-expansion of slavery slaveholder but was merely opposed to secession. Even gave a speech on the eve of it chastising Republicans for trying to abolish slavery. But I guess that would make him a moderate Democrat for the era.

And it wasn't that bad, we got a cabinet member literally barricading himself in his office out of it. That's exciting.

what fight?
I don't know, he didn't mention if I needed to bring my own knife or if he'd be providing them.
 
Case in point:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jx1XDOZkbZU

It's like he literally studies Obama's speaking pattern and mannerisms and emulates it. Except you can tell he's faking it, so he comes across especially politician-y.
When I see Corey Booker, I feel like I can envision him being president one day. Likeable bulldog character

Castro I don't ever see it happening. He seems nice but not presidential. Would like him to prove me wrong but he does not seem deserving at all to be put in the VP seat. Putting someone as young as him as VP you are clearly lining them up to run once you've left office. It would be a mistake to pick him. He should run for governor somewhere to prove himself, if he hates congress so much that is.
 
Morning Joe has breaking news (it was literally phrased this way), PPP has Bernie up seven in Mass (yesterdays news). They didn't mention any of the other Super Tuesday PPP polls...
 
I was going to make a comment about how he was a pro-expansion of slavery slaveholder but was merely opposed to secession. Even gave a speech on the eve of it chastising Republicans for trying to abolish slavery. But I guess that would make him a moderate Democrat for the era.

And it wasn't that bad, we got a cabinet member literally barricading himself in his office out of it. That's exciting.


.
From my understanding Lincoln reigned him in on his views in regards to slavery and was supportive of ending it prior to Lincoln picking him, but completely reverted once Lincoln died and he was in charge.

I get why he felt why he needed to pick a democrat to help "bridge the gap" and hasten reconstruction, and probably didn't have any other options but yeah, even someone who seems moderate or atleast "moderates" on a certain issue can't be trusted to keep to that if they are put in charge
 
Should have ran this time, why build up years of Senate votes that make you vulnerable?

Hell, he'd probably be leading right now.
He can stay in the senate. She doesn't have to pick him. But he'd be a better choice if she absolutely has to pick someone young. In regards to the young democrats with future presidential potential I just was listing him as someone who sits higher up the list.

I don't think the VP spot should be treated like a Pokemon daycare center. I'd prefer if Hillary picked Howard Dean or somebody. But if she must pick someone who clearly isn't ready then pick someone with a little more charisma/character than Castro
 

HylianTom

Banned
Morning Joe has breaking news (it was literally phrased this way), PPP has Bernie up seven in Mass (yesterdays news). They didn't mention any of the other Super Tuesday PPP polls...
Morning Joe does everything but whip-out & flail-upon his private parts every time there's news that can be spun as Bad for Hillary. He was probably raw & chafing from last summer's email hyperventilating.

Hell, they're going to call Virginia for her, and he'll be all.. [hushed tone] "ooooohhh.. that might not work out well for her.."
 

benjipwns

Banned
Other than Quayle, Edwards and Palin, the trend has not really been to pick youngsters who can be firebrands or heir-apparents. But WASHINGTON INSIDERS. (Mondale, Bush, Gore, Cheney, Lieberman, Biden.) Ryan was a bit of a unique case in that he's seen as this policy expert, wonk, etc. and had indicated he wasn't really interested in running for President or anything instead working on legislation, being a GOP version of Warren.

Of course, then he grew the beard.

“That was the end of that campaign, when they chose Ryan,” Mr. Trump said at a town-hall-style setting in Bluffton, S.C., about the Wisconsin congressman who is now the House speaker. “That was the end of the campaign. I said, ‘You gotta be kidding.”

Yet despite Mr. Trump’s claim that Mr. Ryan cost the Republican ticket, the GOP nominee, Mitt Romney, won senior citizens by a wide margin.

When Mr. Ryan was selected as Mr. Romney’s running mate, Democrats made an issue of Mr. Ryan’s proposal, made months earlier, to cut Medicare.

“The only one that’s not cutting is me,” Mr. Trump said, pointing to the fact that he and Mike Huckabee were the only Republican presidential candidates who did not call for reforming Social Security and Medicare. Mr. Huckabee recently pulled out of the race.
 
When I see Corey Booker, I feel like I can envision him being president one day. Likeable bulldog character

Castro I don't ever see it happening. He seems nice but not presidential. Would like him to prove me wrong but he does not seem deserving at all to be put in the VP seat. Putting someone as young as him as VP you are clearly lining them up to run once you've left office. It would be a mistake to pick him. He should run for governor somewhere to prove himself, if he hates congress so much that is.
Another candidate I won't vote for due to the Hillary shilling.
 
Nina Turner didn't have everyone laugh at her in 1993 when she said she believed people should be nicer to each other.

Hilary Clinton also got raked over the coals for saying that she'd rather have a career as Arkansaw First Lady rather than "stay home and bake cookies and have teas." That seemed a very genuine response, and she got skewered for it.

It's not a secret why Hilary comes off as calculating. Every time she gets the slightest bit vulnerable she gets attacked for it.
 

benjipwns

Banned
What a weird story. I think I'll go ask some random black people about the news and title it "Blacks see [X]" since you know....

Deendayal Lulla Mumbai 12 minutes ago
Attention is focussed more on racism,rather than the right candidate for the job. The best candidate should be selected. How about a referendum - more public participation. Those nations where the Executive has no say in selection of judges to higher courts ,can emulate the example of the US.

Ace NYC 9 hours ago
... That Obama is the only modern president besides Eisenhower to win over 50% of the popular vote twice (look it up)
Reagan not a modern President confirmed.
 

Anoregon

The flight plan I just filed with the agency list me, my men, Dr. Pavel here. But only one of you!
Posted already? Oh yes, GOP, continue your slide with pushing away minorities . . . not like you already have a problem there or anything.

NY Times: Blacks See Bias in Delay on a Scalia Successor

I honestly don't believe a huge portion of GOP congressmen are racist themselves, but they are absolutely aware of the fact that a large portion of their base is and that being seen as sticking it to that uppity negro is going to keep them in office.
 

Gruco

Banned
Same, I've always voted Democrat in past elections but if Bernie doesn't get the nomination I might switch to Republican and go for Trump. The problem with the Democratic Party is that they rely on once-in-a-lifetime, political superstars like Obama or Bill Clinton. Once you take a closer look at the party members and politics at a more local level, the Democrats are a mess, they really are. DWS doesn't know what she's doing. Harry Reid was a joke. Nobody liked Pelosi.
I think people are forgetting that there was a period (2007-2010) where the Dems were building a strong bench at both the state and federal level. A big part of the problem was that the slaughterings of 2010 and 2014 just completely crippled the party.
The more I look at the line up of primary/caucus states, the more I think Michigan is going to be hugely important. Maybe the most important state of all of them just due to the nature of media narratives and the usual horse race silliness. I think Bernie winning Michigan on March 8th will largely determine if this is over in three weeks or if it goes all the way to California. The story will be that Hillary won Super Tuesday narrowly overall, but then on March 5th Bernie will probably win 3 out of those 4 states which = "Bernie comeback!" in the media. At that point, Michigan will determine if Hillary is insurmountable and Bernie put up a good fight, or if Bernie is the real deal and some states that Hillary thought were safe are swinging toward Sanders.
Wait, why are you expecting Super Tuesday to be narrow?

Meh. She needs to appeal to the Electoral College.
On the assumption that anyone even cares who the VP pick is anyway, which they probably don't. The maxim is probably just: first, do no harm.

Optics dictate male, younger but not so young to be a neophyte. Governor experience would be good.
Honestly I think the most important thing is picking someone who could reasonably be expected to fill in for the worst case scenario. Also Tim Kaine just seems like a great choice.
 

Fuchsdh

Member
I honestly don't believe a huge portion of GOP congressmen are racist themselves, but they are absolutely aware of the fact that a large portion of their base is and that being seen as sticking it to that uppity negro is going to keep them in office.

I really don't think that many people are actively racist in this country, period. The problem is that not consciously being racist doesn't solve still-existing and legacy issues of inequality, unconscious prejudice is still an issue we haven't addressed, and the more fervent or racist your politics, the more you are a constituency that politicians "have to" address (or, in Trump's case, full-on support.)

I guess in dreamland at least on a national stage we could see both parties ultimately disavow that segment of America and disenfranchise their views, but especially when it comes to localities there's always going to be someone who's willing to nod along when someone talks about "those people" to get a few votes.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I don't know about ST being "narrow," but I think Massachusetts will be important. If Sanders is really ahead, that's a delegate rich state that could propel him forward a bit. I don't know if I believe that entirely but I don't think we'll see a lot more polling.
 
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