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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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F

Frank the Great

Banned
I'm gonna stick my neck out and say Hillary has a comfortable win in NV. 3+ points.

No basis for that, I just know NV is unpredictable as fuck and this is what I want to happen.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Ok even if she loses is it worth freaking out over? Legit question. Caucuses are messy to begin with and Hillary is going to win big in SC and other states. In other words is a loss tomorrow so bad for Hillary that it's the beginning of the end?
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Diablos said:
Ok even if she loses is it worth freaking out over? Legit question. Caucuses are messy to begin with and Hillary is going to win big in SC and other states. In other words is a loss tomorrow so bad for Hillary that it's the beginning of the end?
Click to expand...
The media will paint it as Sanders being able to win in any state, which could change some voter's minds who were on the fence. Nevada itself means almost nothing.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Diablos said:
Ok even if she loses is it worth freaking out over? Legit question. Caucuses are messy to begin with and Hillary is going to win big in SC and other states. In other words is a loss tomorrow so bad for Hillary that it's the beginning of the end?
Click to expand...

Clinton shouldn't be losing NV. It would call into question her whole campaign organization, I mean her manager is who got her win in NV last primary.

Sure, she can still be fine.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Diablos said:
Ok even if she loses is it worth freaking out over? Legit question. Caucuses are messy to begin with and Hillary is going to win big in SC and other states. In other words is a loss tomorrow so bad for Hillary that it's the beginning of the end?
Click to expand...

to the media yes. She has no excuse for not winning. Its going to be 65% white and 30% minority unlike IA and NH.

Bowdz said:
I agree with Halperin and Heilman. They think NV is a must win for Bernie but that it will really illustrate that Bernie is here to stay if he wins. Hillary can comeback, but it will be a long, hard slog versus getting the mo from this win starting a streak with SC going into Super Tuesday.

She will be MUCH better off if she wins, but she will probably still bounce back big in SC if she loses. The biggest problem will be Bernie constantly outraising her and being able to expand his campaign operation.
Click to expand...

right. She need atleast to win with over 50% of the vote.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Diablos said:
Ok even if she loses is it worth freaking out over? Legit question. Caucuses are messy to begin with and Hillary is going to win big in SC and other states. In other words is a loss tomorrow so bad for Hillary that it's the beginning of the end?
Click to expand...

I agree with Halperin and Heilman. They think NV is a must win for Bernie but that it will really illustrate that Bernie is here to stay if he wins. Hillary can comeback, but it will be a long, hard slog versus getting the mo from this win starting a streak with SC going into Super Tuesday.

She will be MUCH better off if she wins, but she will probably still bounce back big in SC if she loses. The biggest problem will be Bernie constantly outraising her and being able to expand his campaign operation.
 
L

lastflowers

Banned
Sea Manky said:
It bears repeating, the amplified internet "MY CANDIDATE OR I WON'T VOTE!!!" noise isn't a new thing, and it's still nowhere near as bad as 2008. People need to calm down.


Also, privileged dudes getting antsy because minority and womens' issues are getting time is a good sign of progress, not some growing flaw in the Democratic party. Anyone who seriously thinks identity politics is a "problem" because it's alienating some straight white men should really take a step back and do some deeper self-examination as to why exactly this bothers them, and why it should be necessary that straight white men remain the axis around which all politics revolve.
Click to expand...


At most, it's disheartening to be automatically dismissed for being straight white. If that's all that happens to me, whatever. I deserve to be treated like an ignoramus sometimes because I am.
 
D

danm999

Member
Diablos said:
Ok even if she loses is it worth freaking out over? Legit question. Caucuses are messy to begin with and Hillary is going to win big in SC and other states. In other words is a loss tomorrow so bad for Hillary that it's the beginning of the end?
Click to expand...

As someone who thinks she'll lose tomorrow no, it's not a big deal.

Not unless her SC and Super Tuesday numbers get soft. If she runs into problems in those places you've got a race on your hands.
 
D

danm999

Member
NeoXChaos said:
what makes you think she is going to lose?
Click to expand...

No reason. No analysis. Pure gut. Feels like the Sanders campaign realises this is their last chance for positive headlines and momentum before a brutal March and should have thrown all they have into it.

That said if Hillary wins I won't be shocked either.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
I'm kind of fascinated by how impossible it is to judge the Nevada caucus. There's like one poll!

Based on that one poll, and knowing that it was CNN so it will be undercounting Latinos by a bunch, I think Hillary will win by 1-5 points.
 
N

noshten

Member
pigeon said:
I'm kind of fascinated by how impossible it is to judge the Nevada caucus. There's like one poll!

Based on that one poll, and knowing that it was CNN so it will be undercounting Latinos by a bunch, I think Hillary will win by 1-5 points.
Click to expand...

I think you are underestimating the inroads Sanders has made in Nevada with Latinos and how young this electorate is. If they show up in numbers it's going to be mostly people under 40 and I don't need to tell you in such a case Clinton doesn't have much an advantage.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Las7 said:
I think you are underestimating the inroads Sanders has made in Nevada with Latinos and how young this electorate is. If they show up in numbers it's going to be mostly people under 40 and I don't need to tell you in such a case Clinton doesn't have much an advantage.
Click to expand...

Good thing it's 8AM on a Saturday!
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
True bros will just go to a keg party, have a blast, and head straight to the voting thingie afterwards.

..man, i get 4-5 hours of sleep nowadays and am done. can party all the way to 5, go to bed, then be up at 9. wtf happened.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Anyone expecting 11AM to depress the youth vote is kidding themselves. That's GOP analyst "this is totally going to kill Trump!" tier delusion. Bernie's youth vote has and will continue to turn out.
 
T

Teggy

Member
Sounds like we'll pretty much know the caucus results by about 5pm eastern tomorrow, correct? Unless they take a lot longer than the Iowa version.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Bowdz said:
Anyone expecting 11AM to depress the youth vote is kidding themselves. That's GOP analyst "this is totally going to kill Trump!" tier delusion. Bernie's youth vote has and will continue to turn out.
Click to expand...

Depress? Define depress. Timing, like weather, can have real effects on turnout. That's not nonsense.
 
I

Incognito

Troll
ive heard reports that bernie's team has had to push back the start times on their nevada block walks numerous times because no one under 25 shows up before 1130am. theyre starting as late as 4, 5, 6 pm and hitting only a few # of voters while simultaneously upsetting families for ruining dinner time. i think the implications for saturday are obvious.
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
NeoXChaos said:
college kids sleep later than 11 AM? I assume most of you did that.
Click to expand...
I'm not in college. I'm sure a lot sleep until 11, I did. Can't be there if they're just waking up!
Incognito said:
ive heard reports that bernie's team has had to push back the start times on their nevada block walks numerous times because no one under 25 shows up before 1130am. theyre starting as late as 4, 5, 6 pm and hitting only a few # of voters while simultaneously upsetting families for ruining dinner time. i think the implications for saturday are obvious.
Click to expand...
lol even I only canvassed early the weekend of primary: before that it was after noon.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
Incognito said:
ive heard reports that bernie's team has had to push back the start times on their nevada block walks numerous times because no one under 25 shows up before 1130am. theyre starting as late as 4, 5, 6 pm and hitting only a few # of voters while simultaneously upsetting families for ruining dinner time. i think the implications for saturday are obvious.
Click to expand...

clinton wins by 40 confirmed
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Las7 said:
I think you are underestimating the inroads Sanders has made in Nevada with Latinos and how young this electorate is. If they show up in numbers it's going to be mostly people under 40 and I don't need to tell you in such a case Clinton doesn't have much an advantage.
Click to expand...

Maybe! I don't have any real numbers on the inroads Sanders has made with Latinos.

This came up some during 2012. Latinos just heavily underreport on traditional polling that doesn't include a Spanish option. Latino Decisions was the only pollster to have a good view of Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, etc. Other polls tilted R notably because they undercounted Latinos.

Of those Latinos who are willing to take English polls, I would bet they're younger. So that's also likely, in my view, to make Latinos look a little more sympathetic to the Bern than they may actually be at the polls, and it probably has the same effect on considering the composition of the electorate in a state like Nevada.

I don't think your argument is impossible, but we'll just have to see! It's kind of exciting to have a caucus with basically no reliable information whatsoever on the outcome.

I think O'Malley doesn't have much of a chance, though.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
pigeon said:
Maybe! I don't have any real numbers on the inroads Sanders has made with Latinos.

This came up some during 2012. Latinos just heavily underreport on traditional polling that doesn't include a Spanish option. Latino Decisions was the only pollster to have a good view of Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, etc. Other polls tilted R notably because they undercounted Latinos.

Of those Latinos who are willing to take English polls, I would bet they're younger. So that's also likely, in my view, to make Latinos look a little more sympathetic to the Bern than they may actually be at the polls, and it probably has the same effect on considering the composition of the electorate in a state like Nevada.

I don't think your argument is impossible, but we'll just have to see! It's kind of exciting to have a caucus with basically no reliable information whatsoever on the outcome.

I think O'Malley doesn't have much of a chance, though.
Click to expand...

BREAKING NEWS

LINCOLN "it was my first day okay" CHAFEE HAS WON THE NEVADA CAUCUS
 
I

Incognito

Troll
Macho Madness said:
When do the doors close?

The Clinton camp is probably going to do some of the stuff they did last time. Go to the casinos, get the union workers.
Click to expand...

no doubt about this. there'e gonna be more $$$ sloshing around the clinton campaign GOTV on saturday than all the casinos on the strip combined.
 
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