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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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A

Aaron Strife

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
Governors that have yet to endorse

Jerry Brown
Kate Brown
Steve Bullock
John Bel Edwards
Earl Ray Tomblin
Daniel Ige

Senators
Harry Reid
Bob Menendez
Jeff Merkley
Jon Tester
Elizabeth Warren

and last but not least
Bernie Sanders

What is holding these guys out?
Click to expand...
Reid didn't endorse because he felt staying neutral in the caucus would boost registration for the Democrats.
 
M

Makai

Member
SC7sW8t.jpg

Pgr5i8N.jpg
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
shinra-bansho said:
So, I finally watched the clip on Huertagate.

Shilly Betty's tweet was a misrepresentation. No one shouted "English only" at least that was audible among the clamour.

But, the treatment of Dolores Huerta was also shit. There were heckles thrown at her for volunteering. And there was cheering and applause at going forward in English only.

I don't know why Sarandon thought that video made anyone come out looking good.
Click to expand...

Yeah, of course Sanders supporters instead chose to attack the tweet instead of what actually happened. The original tweet did not make any sense, because Sanders simply does not emanate that kinda anti-spanish nonsense. But the actual video still does his supporters no favors.


In other news, I think it was you shinra-bansho who was talking about the new wave of fact denying among the left, especially with Sanders supporters.
The sheer vitriol being thrown at Krugman for this article is a very sad day for liberals.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
I don't know if this is 100% true, but I read on Kos that Bernie is only running ads in Colorado, Oklahoma, Minnesota and Massachusetts. Oh, and South Carolina. He's basically conceded the rest already. She's supposedly running in 15 States at the moment. I'm trying to confirm just to be sure but not a good look if true.

And by rest I mean Super Tuesday.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I feel like at some point Rubio will pull ahead in the...I dunno, "normal" states? I mean doesn't he have to? HE HAS TO!
 
D

Diablos

Member
Cerium said:
Man yesterday was so great I'm still basking in it.



Not at all impossible, there are a bunch of winner take all states late in the process.

If Trump does really well on Super Tuesday, then it might be impossible.
Click to expand...
How many and what states are they??
 
T

titiklabingapat

Member
Re: suburban growth versus urban growth in Georgia.

Those counties (especially around Atlanta) might be conservative now but most of the growth from immigration into them are largely from the North or West trying to escape high real estate prices and cost of living, and are probably less racist and less Southern than the current population now. It's what happened to Northern Virginia who was once very conservative. It's one of the most reliably Democratic and progressive regions of the Old South now. It is happening to a certain degree in North Carolina as well.
 
C

ChoklitReign

Member
Aaron Strife said:
I think Georgia is the next logical target after North Carolina. Mobilizing Atlanta to the point where it could outvote the rest of the state would be pretty extraordinary. Huge African-American population and plenty of liberal whites moving in annually.

Obama targeted Georgia hard in 2008 and only lost by 5%. His campaign completely ignored it in 2012 and that margin only increased to 7%. But Romney barely gained any voters, only 30,000 over McCain in raw numbers. Obama shed about 70,000. That suggests to me that even if Democrats (or maybe specifically Obama) have a low ceiling there, they have a very high floor.

Basically GA is on the same path that Virginia has already taken and North Carolina is in the process of. I believe this is the party's future.

Btw Missouri was the same way - Romney barely gained over McCain, it was just a matter of Obama's voters not showing up since he barely bothered to compete there. Unlike Georgia though he shed like 200,000 voters. I mean don't get me wrong, it was more prudent to spend in the critical swing states in a closer election, but if Hillary is routing Trump in national polls, Georgia isn't a bad investment.
Click to expand...
So why shouldn't Hillary establish a ground game here? If a black liberal lost by that little in a state where only 20% of whites voted for him, imagine what a white liberal with a moderate tone could do with all ethnic groups. Clinton appeals to way more categories of people than Trump, even in Georgia. While I still think big, suburban Republican-heavy counties like Cobb and Gwinnett pose the biggest barrier to urban growth, they only need to have a few tens of thousands of whites change their allegiance to swing the state.

Hell, I take it all back. The fastest-growing counties don't have much of a big population anyways compared to the absolute numbers of Fulton, DeKalb, and Chatham. Counties like Cherokee and Forsyth will probably still be hurdles, but Georgia already resembles North Carolina just before 2008. I take back all of the doubt I had in you, Aaron Strife. A good strategy in Georgia could definitely turn it into a swing state.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
titiklabingapat said:
Re: suburban growth versus urban growth in Georgia.

Those counties (especially around Atlanta) might be conservative now but most of the growth from immigration into them are largely from the North or West trying to escape high real estate prices and cost of living, and are probably less racist and less Southern than the current population now. It's what happened to Northern Virginia who was once very conservative. It's one of the most reliably Democratic and progressive regions of the Old South now. It is happening to a certain degree in North Carolina as well.
Click to expand...

is this real life picture week?
 
Q

QuiteWhittle

Member
NeoXChaos said:
Governors that have yet to endorse

Jerry Brown
Kate Brown
Steve Bullock
John Bel Edwards
Earl Ray Tomblin
Daniel Ige

Senators
Harry Reid
Bob Menendez
Jeff Merkley
Jon Tester
Elizabeth Warren

and last but not least
Bernie Sanders

What is holding these guys out?
Click to expand...
Bob Menendez is holding out cause no one wants his endorsement.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Something I don't understand is people handing their babies to politicians. And I say this as someone who would feel the holy spirit move through me if I got to touch the edge of my Queens lavender pantsuit. Why is this still a thing?
 
C

Cerium

Member
SCOTUSblog is floating the name of Ketanji Brown Jackson for the Supreme Court.

45 years old, former Supreme Court clerk, black, female, and related to Paul Ryan by marriage.

Her husband's twin brother is married to Paul Ryan's sister. He supported her nomination to federal court.

ketanji-brown-jackson.png
 
H

Holmes

Member
Diablos said:
How many and what states are they??
Click to expand...
This is what Super Tuesday 2016 looks like.

Alabama - Primary
Alaska - Caucus
American Samoa - Caucus [Dem only]
Arkansas - Primary
Colorado - Caucus*
Georgia - Primary
Massachusetts - Primary
Minnesota - Caucus
North Dakota - Caucus* [GOP only]
Oklahoma - Primary
Tennessee - Primary
Texas - Primary
Vermont - Primary
Virginia - Primary
Wyoming - Caucus* [GOP only]

* No preference poll for the GOP caucuses, similar to IA and NV for the Dems.
 
F

Frank the Great

Banned
Cerium said:
SCOTUSblog is floating the name of Ketanji Brown Jackson for the Supreme Court.

45 years old, former Supreme Court clerk, black, female, and related to Paul Ryan by marriage.

Her husband's twin brother is married to Paul Ryan's sister. He supported her nomination to federal court.

ketanji-brown-jackson.png
Click to expand...

I think her lack of experience on an appellate court gives Republicans an easy excuse to block her without looking too obstructionist.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Y2Kev said:
Nate says Trump skeptics are right in that trump is trending down. Omg world ending noo :(
Click to expand...

Nate speaking negative about Trump's chances?

Well, I never.

I ask the same questions I did last night:

If Cruz stays in (which he will), WHAT STATES DOES RUBIO WIN? I still haven't seen Nate or anyone answer this. It isn't the south. It isn't Michigan. It isn't California or New York. Where is this happening?
 
D

Diablos

Member
Holmes said:
This is what Super Tuesday 2016 looks like.

Alabama - Primary
Alaska - Caucus
American Samoa - Caucus [Dem only]
Arkansas - Primary
Colorado - Caucus*
Georgia - Primary
Massachusetts - Primary
Minnesota - Caucus
North Dakota - Caucus* [GOP only]
Oklahoma - Primary
Tennessee - Primary
Texas - Primary
Vermont - Primary
Virginia - Primary
Wyoming - Caucus* [GOP only]

* No preference poll for the GOP caucuses, similar to IA and NV for the Dems.
Click to expand...
How many are winner takes all?
 
D

danm999

Member
Plinko said:
Nate speaking negative about Trump's chances?

Well, I never.

I ask the same questions I did last night:

If Cruz stays in (which he will), WHAT STATES DOES RUBIO WIN? I still haven't seen Nate or anyone answer this. It isn't the south. It isn't Michigan. It isn't California or New York. Where is this happening?
Click to expand...

How dare you he is winning the endorsement primary!
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Plinko said:
Nate speaking negative about Trump's chances?

Well, I never.

I ask the same questions I did last night:

If Cruz stays in (which he will), WHAT STATES DOES RUBIO WIN? I still haven't seen Nate or anyone answer this. It isn't the south. It isn't Michigan. It isn't California or New York. Where is this happening?
Click to expand...

It could easily be any state if Trump were to drop 3-4 points everywhere! He was polling at like an average of 36 in SC and ended up with 33. Late deciders always break away from him it seems.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Y2Kev said:
It could easily be any state if Trump were to drop 3-4 points everywhere! He was polling at like an average of 36 in SC and ended up with 33. Late deciders always break away from him it seems.
Click to expand...

3-4 points? That still isn't enough. Trump is winning primaries by 12 points.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
When Trump finds this...

Bush reported to this aide that Haley was inclined to play a role in the race and offered an unsolicited critique of Rubio, telling Bush that she agreed with New Jersey Governor Chris Christie that the first-term senator wasn’t qualified for White House.

Bush, who had raised money for Haley’s gubernatorial campaign and helped answer her request for assistance in transition planning (before her race was over), left the meeting thinking that, with a good debate on Saturday, Haley would back him.

“When she endorsed, it just stopped -- it was a wall,” one aide said about Bush's improvements in their daily tracking polls. Something changed between that dinner and her decision to endorse Rubio.

“Something had to be offered,” the aide said. “Some sort of deal had to be done. It doesn’t make sense.”
Click to expand...

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-02-21/how-jeb-bush-was-swallowed-by-his-past
 
H

Holmes

Member
Diablos said:
How many are winner takes all?
Click to expand...
None. There's no such thing on the Democratic side and winner-take-all doesn't start on the GOP side until the 15th. The WTA states on the 15th are Florida and Ohio. Which is why I wouldn't be so quick to call the nomination for Trump until we see how those two vote. If Trump can take one or both of them, it's game over.

Missouri is a state that is similar to South Carolina too, in that the winner of a congressional district wins all of its delegates, and if Trump wins by 10%+ again, he'll probably sweep the state.
 
J

johnsmith

remember me
Yeah, so I finally found out the answer to how Bernie's going to get all this stuff passed, and holy shit, it's even more delusional than I thought.

What we do is you put an issue before Congress, let’s just use free tuition at public colleges and universities, and that vote is going to take place on November 8 ... whatever it may be. We tell millions and millions of people, young people and their parents, there is going to be a vote ... half the people don’t know what’s going on ... but we tell them when the vote is, maybe we welcome a million young people to Washington, D.C. to say hello to their members of Congress. Maybe we have the telephones and the e-mails flying all over the place so that everybody in America will know how their representative is voting. [...]

And then Republicans are going to have to make a decision. Then they’re going to have to make a decision. You know, when thousands of young people in their district are saying, “You vote against this, you’re out of your job, because we know what’s going on.” So this gets back to what a political revolution is about, is bringing people in touch with the Congress, not having that huge wall. That’s how you bring about change.
Click to expand...
http://www.dailykos.com/stories/201...Bernie-Sanders-wins-the-White-House-Then-what
http://webcache.googleusercontent.c...olitical-revolution+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Don't know that much about her but kind of wondering why she didn't run herself.
Her on Rubio's ticket would probably make one wonder why it's not the other way around.
 
C

Crocodile

Member
Why are some states proportional and some winner take all? What's the rational there? It also seems bigger states are more likely to be winner take all?

Cybit said:
Indeed - but the article is about the idea that any GOP nominee has other variables in their favor, Trump or not. I agree with Silver in that I think his ceiling is super low - but it's not out of the realm of possibility that he could pull off an upset. I think liberals / Democrats are overconfident currently in their general election chances, and I do not like that overconfidence.
Click to expand...

I can agree that Democrats should avoid being overconfident but I still don't see the fear of Trump in the GE. He's literally overtly pissed and insulted off nearly every demographic except white men (I guess I've never heard him speak ill of the LGBT community at least but I could have easily missed something). You can't win a presidency with ONLY them.

Effect said:
This is why I don't like labeling myself with that term or even liberal. There are people that self-identify with both that can easily flip that switch when things don't go their way. They're happy when everyone is on board and will happily smile in your face but the second black and brown people decided to to fall in line for whatever reason with them the blame game starts almost instantly and we're first on the list. It's always interesting how easy the coded language starts to fly as well.
Click to expand...

The past few years have been pretty eye-opening in this regard :(

Manmademan said:
Even worse, there's a tendency for certain hispanics to self identify as white, because fuck it why not.

It's probably higher than the reported figures.
Click to expand...

I mean why wouldn't you if you could make your life 35352351324x easier in the process :p

Chezzymann said:
Yeah, I think Trump actually has a much bigger shot at winning the whole thing than people think. Voter turnout on the republican side is setting record numbers, while the democratic side is much lower. If this holds true in the general, we could be seeing a large shift to the right.

I think right now this whole 'hillarys gonna win anyways' mentality is the biggest danger for the democrats' as it results in a lack of enthusiasm, compared to the republican side that is filled with anger and fear (for the wrong reasons in my opinion though) that seems to really be motivating them to get out and vote,
Click to expand...

I do wonder if Democrats should use fear/anger more often in their politics? Then again that could lead to some very dangerous implications (such as radicalization ala the Tea Party) and I guess since the country is moving left socially its harder to do?
 
H

Holmes

Member
Fam, we doing a chat for the Nevada GOP caucus results? They start at 5pm PST everywhere in the state, but 6pm PST in Washoe for some reason. They end at 9pm PST, and I'm guessing results will start trickling in afterwards. Who will be awake?
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Holmes said:
None. There's no such thing on the Democratic side and winner-take-all doesn't start on the GOP side until the 15th. The WTA states on the 15th are Florida and Ohio. Which is why I wouldn't be so quick to call the nomination for Trump until we see how those two vote. If Trump can take one or both of them, it's game over.

Missouri is a state that is similar to South Carolina too, in that the winner of a congressional district wins all of its delegates, and if Trump wins by 10%+ again, he'll probably sweep the state.
Click to expand...

Meanwhile I think Rubio can win those two. Kasich...will he even win Ohio? I mean it's not like JEB!!! was winning Florida.
 
T

Tamanon

Banned
shinra-bansho said:
Don't know that much about her but kind of wondering why she didn't run herself.
Her on Rubio's ticket would probably make one wonder why it's not the other way around.
Click to expand...

I think Haley is waiting until 2020 when the electorate will be ready for a party change in the White House.
 
M

maabus1999

Member
shinra-bansho said:
Don't know that much about her but kind of wondering why she didn't run herself.
Her on Rubio's ticket would probably make one wonder why it's not the other way around.
Click to expand...

She's popular lately (80%) in the state due to her handling of the flooding and Charleston shooting, but doesn't have much to say for accomplishments due to how weak (by design) the SC governor is. She has also fought with the GOP state legislature numerous times, with the legislature winning the vast majority of the time.
 
C

Crocodile

Member
Also, what type of Republican is Nikki Haley? Like an actual moderate Republican like McCain before he pivoted to the Right in the 2008 race? A "moderate" Republican like Jeb or Kasich who occasional do or say things that are reasonable but if you listen to the rest of what they have to say or look at their record there are just bad things all around? Or a "moderate" like Rubio who people say is moderate but if you listen to literally anything they say/do you realize they are full of shit?
 
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