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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada
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Aaron Strife
Banned
I wonder if his mookshakes bring all the boys to the yard.
He's apparently NOT single :-(
I'll laugh if Sanders loses MN.
but if they just get to know him first. Not everyone knows him yet.
Rafa=FedKilla
Banned
Trump hasn't attacked him yet. He hasn't labeled him yet. That's when the attack starts.
ChoklitReign
Member
We won't know for sure until 2020 when the next census and Hillary's inevitable reelection will occur. It could be hard for a handful of urban counties to outnumber all of the North Atlanta counties and everything else. My county, Cobb, has lots of urban growth but I don't see it changing its R-D gap anytime soon without more enthusiasm from minorities and the youth.
BoboBrazil
Member
Trump attacks on Rubio start Thursday night at the debate I bet. CNN needs to block Carson from participating.
Kaine said something a few days ago to that effect, how he'll be sitting with the rest of the senators during the DNC. I think they're just holding their cards close to their chests. Why would someone say "hell yeah I want to/will be the VP nominee" at this point? Or ever?
Whoever becomes Hilldawg's VP depends on who wins the GOP nomination. If it's Trump, Cory Booker gets the pick since she would already have the hispanic vote locked up. If it's Rubio, Julian gets the pick to try to stop them from going to Marco's side.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
Oof that sounds like it was awkward
Ralston said YESTERDAY he thinks Trump will win by 30 or 35. He is a fucking attention whore like none other.
Veritigo_X
Member
They've already featured him in commercials so that isn't happening.
Thanks for the analysis ChoklitReign. As a lifelong Georgian that lines up with how I've always seen the state. Those rich as hell Atlanta suburbs are so conservative. I was in Alpharetta recently and there was nothing but luxury car dealerships as far as the eye could see. I half expected to see Mitt Romney.
FUCK, another Ralston article!!!! GO AWAY FOR FOUR YEARS LOSER
No, I'm not saying that destined to become a swing state. More that I think the county's urban attitude has changed, especially in regards to Obama's two best counties in 12. Some of this could be with a larger Hispanic/Latino outreach by the state's Democratic party.
Worth noting that Cobb (which has become a slightly-more-conservative-than-the-state-bellweather) was R+24 in 04, while only R+10 in 08 and R+12 in 12. Closing that margin even slightly could be a white whale for Democrats, but that's their ticket towards GA.
Yoda
Member
The map favors Democrats for sure; but Obama style turnout is still required for Dems to guarantee a friendly map, by this I mean higher than Kerry or Gore.
Playing devils advocate:
The only thing outside a DEM getting hit w/a scandal that could sink them is a massive foreign policy event. This is where Republicans normally win Defacto... but depending on where the event is, if Hillary were the nominee it'd probably help her (FE exp)... unless its in Syria or Lybia, where she'll take the blame w/Obama. If it's Bernie, given how he's really not affiliated w/the party's IR ideology it'll probably not hurt him directly. But as the national conversation changes away from domestic issues, he'd most likely be thrown off his stride (similar to how he's normally "winning" debates until the topic goes overseas) thus giving an advantage to republicans.
Strangely enough I think Trump would fair better at flipping states like PA, than Cruz or Rubio. He'd be able to take free-trade to the jugular in a way Hillary can't due to her previous support of TPP, and Bill's vocal support of NAFTA. The blue collar voters who broke for Obama last time could be flipped. Of course this doesn't change the fact that Florida and a few other states are 100% off limits to him. This is why I don't buy the arguments that Rubio > Trump for the GE. Aside from his last name, how would he appeal to minority voters? His policies couldn't be more anti-minority and they have an obvious alternative.
Finally the republican turnout is still not making sense. I posted about this a few pages back but they are getting sizable increases in turnout. This should NOT be ignored by Dem strategists because the margin in the swing states, even with the demographic edge, isn't insurmountably large. The "I don't care enough to vote" crowd is larger than the voting totals for any major party candidate. IF it can somehow be reliably tapped (Obama did this in 2012 for the mid-western swing states), then a lot of the calculus changes.
More publicity == more $$ for him. It's not like anyone is going to ask for his opinion anymore after the Nevada primary.
It's not like the establishment has done better. Romney got obliterated, so did McCain, Bush didn't win the popular vote in one election, and didn't win the election in the one before that. The evangelical vote is probably fair game to give up. If the bended on social issues, but stuck to their guns on fiscal issues, I could see them OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME, eating @ moderate democrats and gaining minorities. Execution is the thing, there is nothing stopping another Trump (assuming he'd lose) exploiting said fissure for personal gain. In the short future if the demographic problem hardens in favor of Dems, Presidential elections might just be off the table. They still control the rest of the government atm (might loose the SCOTUS soon) but in terms of governorships they are doing well.
BoboBrazil
Member
Carson won't drop out until they stop putting him in debates.
Roland_Gunner
Member
Great points! You do an excellent job of outlining the ground level challenges that Dems are going to have in making a state like Georgia even competitive. I do think there are reasons for optimism though:
1. As Ivy mentioned, the trend nationwide post Great Recession has been towards population growth in urban areas with less elsewhere. That should help make Atlanta more influential.
2. As you point out, much of the growth in the Hispanic population has come from undocumented workers but they will have children who are citizens. If someone came to work on a farm in north Georgia in 1992 and had a kid in '96 that person can now vote. Its up to the Dems to find folks that like and get them registered.
Your ultimate point that Georgia isn't an efficient place to use resources in 2016, is pretty inarguable but we aren't going to see progress there without putting in time on the ground. I still think states like Georgia and Arizona will eventually at least become Republican leaning swing states similar to NC. The question is will it take 10 years or 30. 2016 should tell us more about that.
Aaron Strife
Banned
This is amazing. Please don't stop regaling us with Hillary/Barack/Bill stories throughout the campaign.
Regarding the future of electoral politics, it is my firmly-held belief that Democrats' new strength/competitiveness in Southern states (mainly Virginia, Florida and North Carolina) will solidify and those states will become light blue, but this will eventually be offset by GOP making inroads in the Midwest, with Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa consistently voting red and Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania staying blue but by tighter margins.
The key word here is eventually - I believe EVENTUALLY the GOP will moderate on some social issues (gay rights, immigration and climate change being the big ones) and turn towards economic populism, but until that happens Democrats will continue just expanding the map.
If Hillary is in 5-6 points in 2016, the DNC should put that on focus in 2020 the way that they have put resources in North Carolina. There's also a chance that Trump causes the temporary collapse of suburban Republicans actually voting in 2016.
But there's really no need to put resources in Georgia unless it looks like it's a complete rout and you want to run of the score on the downticket. But Isakson doesn't even have a real challenger, so why?
But there's really no need to put resources in Georgia unless it looks like it's a complete rout and you want to run of the score on the downticket. But Isakson doesn't even have a real challenger, so why?
Macho Madness
Member
The video was pretty awkward too: https://berniesanders.com/press-rel...twitter&utm_medium=post&utm_campaign=tw160221
Which makes me wonder why you would put that on your website.
This is true, right? I'll start believing it to be true.
I missed this. WHAT WHAT WHAT.
I think this'll happen, and it won't be indicative of any real trend. But I definitely see it happening with suburban women, especially middle aged and older Republicans ones. Not so much men. Whenever we see Republicans being asked if they'd vote for Clinton over Trump, the ones that say yes are generally older women. Clinton is not dangerous to them, even if there is an idealogical difference.
RustyNails
Member
Are you kidding? Suburban Republicans are the most batshit crazed lunatics in existence. Peter Roskam is from the suburb of Chicago where I drive to for work. He was the one grilling Hillary like interrogation in Benghazi hearing. Hell I saw a Ben Carson 2016 sticker last week.
User 463088
Banned
THe one of Hillary sucking on the pearl necklace
(SHUT UP)
Or they just don't vote. It might not matter in most states and won't be the sign of a trend, but is the potential danger of a Trump nomination.
I was more of a Golden Girls and The Nanny kid.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I think Georgia is the next logical target after North Carolina. Mobilizing Atlanta to the point where it could outvote the rest of the state would be pretty extraordinary. Huge African-American population and plenty of liberal whites moving in annually.
Obama targeted Georgia hard in 2008 and only lost by 5%. His campaign completely ignored it in 2012 and that margin only increased to 7%. But Romney barely gained any voters, only 30,000 over McCain in raw numbers. Obama shed about 70,000. That suggests to me that even if Democrats (or maybe specifically Obama) have a low ceiling there, they have a very high floor.
Basically GA is on the same path that Virginia has already taken and North Carolina is in the process of. I believe this is the party's future.
Btw Missouri was the same way - Romney barely gained over McCain, it was just a matter of Obama's voters not showing up since he barely bothered to compete there. Unlike Georgia though he shed like 200,000 voters. I mean don't get me wrong, it was more prudent to spend in the critical swing states in a closer election, but if Hillary is routing Trump in national polls, Georgia isn't a bad investment.
shinra-bansho
Member
So, I finally watched the clip on Huertagate.
Shilly Betty's tweet was a misrepresentation. No one shouted "English only" at least that was audible among the clamour.
But, the treatment of Dolores Huerta was also shit. There were heckles thrown at her for volunteering. And there was cheering and applause at going forward in English only.
I don't know why Sarandon thought that video made anyone come out looking good.
Shilly Betty's tweet was a misrepresentation. No one shouted "English only" at least that was audible among the clamour.
But, the treatment of Dolores Huerta was also shit. There were heckles thrown at her for volunteering. And there was cheering and applause at going forward in English only.
I don't know why Sarandon thought that video made anyone come out looking good.
Macho Madness
Member
I told you. The narrative is "the vultures are circling" and it's going to get worse after Saturday.
User 463088
Banned
When I was 3, I would sing the Golden Girl's theme song randomly. That....that should have been a hint to my parents. I love The Golden Girls. I'm a Sophia....and a Blanche with the raw sex appeal of a Dorothy.
I noticed the same thing. #MookMagic
Roland_Gunner
Member
Rationally Rubio should be the nominee but its hard to see how it happens. South Carolina should have been in the bag for him with support from the entire party and Trump blasting GW Bush in a very military heavy state. Instead he squeaks out second place. Even Nate Silver acknowledges that Rubio's two realistic paths to the nom are:
1. Cruz gets pushed out fairly early, which is hard to see since Ted has a lot of money and the establishment has no leverage.
2. Trump gets a plurality of the delegates but not enough to overcome the super-delegates and they do a brokered convention.
I'm a Dorothy but Blanche is my bae.
Exactly. There's no reason for Hillary to spend money in GA and MO unless she's already winning. Missouri seems like a better bet to help Kander, too.
How? Isn't it nearly impossible at this point? GOP would have to go for a brokered convention.
Man yesterday was so great I'm still basking in it.
Not at all impossible, there are a bunch of winner take all states late in the process.
If Trump does really well on Super Tuesday, then it might be impossible.
Not at all impossible, there are a bunch of winner take all states late in the process.
If Trump does really well on Super Tuesday, then it might be impossible.
BoboBrazil
Member
Fox News is still all over Bernie's nuts. I don't think I need to tell you why.
ChoklitReign
Member
Georgia is a great example of Trump Republicans - I picture GOP voters in the Atlanta area as less evangelical, religious voters (but there's plenty of those throughout the state) and more middle- to upper-class people who feel disenfranchised and strongly opposed to immigrants taking jobs and free trade.
I never realized that undocumented workers were sowing the seeds of natural-born citizens who could change the ideology of the whole South in 10-20 years. If enough get registered and turn out, Texas and Arizona would easily become swing or even lean-blue states. It's unlikely to have a major push, but Dems have to preserve natural born citizenship by all means.
Since we're looking this far into the future, I personally feel like I would rather have a different GOP that went back to an era when "compromise" and "moderate" weren't bad words rather than 50 years of Democratic rule. The strategies mentioned before would only work if Hispanics and other minorities voted for Dems with the same commitment they do today. Who knows what post-millennial Hispanics will vote for. But I would certainly like to see the Democratic Party regain state and local governments again. If Bernie Sanders is the future of the Dems, I want Republicans to look more like John Bel Edwards and Mitt Romney as Governor of Massachusetts.
I never realized that undocumented workers were sowing the seeds of natural-born citizens who could change the ideology of the whole South in 10-20 years. If enough get registered and turn out, Texas and Arizona would easily become swing or even lean-blue states. It's unlikely to have a major push, but Dems have to preserve natural born citizenship by all means.
Since we're looking this far into the future, I personally feel like I would rather have a different GOP that went back to an era when "compromise" and "moderate" weren't bad words rather than 50 years of Democratic rule. The strategies mentioned before would only work if Hispanics and other minorities voted for Dems with the same commitment they do today. Who knows what post-millennial Hispanics will vote for. But I would certainly like to see the Democratic Party regain state and local governments again. If Bernie Sanders is the future of the Dems, I want Republicans to look more like John Bel Edwards and Mitt Romney as Governor of Massachusetts.
neurosisxeno
Member
Republicans will cheat if they have to. Didn't they do a rule change in the middle of the 2012 convention just to give Romney a strong majority?
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