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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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Endorsement points on the GOP:

Rubio: 130
Cruz: 22
Kasich: 20
Carson: 1
Trump: 0

So we'll see if this matters at all.

Cruz fired his communication manager after his communication manager posted a spliced up video showing Rubio attacking the Bible. Rubio's team is still going after Cruz though:

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Holmes

Member
I seriously can't believe that you guys are complaining because Bernie is actually going to do his best to win the nomination instead of throwing in the towel. Don't like that he's going to drag this out? TOUGH TITTIES.

Hillary's not going to get a coronation. Get over it.

I seriously can only take this Hillary echo chamber in doses. It's like alt-reddit up in this bitch.
Seriously what? Just like Sanders and his campaign have the right to criticize and attack Clinton, her supporters have the right to react negatively to it. Honestly kind of a useless post.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
So draw this line. Seriously! I want to hear the argument here. How, specifically, did payoffs from Wall Street to Congress lead to the financial crash in 2008? What were the regulatory failures? What were the carve-outs?

Why ask a question you already know the answer to? You know what they'll say, despite the fact that it wouldn't have done any good.
 
Hillary needs to stay above it. She's winning and Bernies people are saying what they feel they need to to stay relevant. However, I've never been unwilling to believe he won't burn this thing down in the way out. However I think that only hurts him in the long run.

Also in the ER might have surgery tonight or tomorrow depending on the emergency CT scan
 
we're defending Wall Street in here?
It does need to be well-regulated, and a better regulated industry than it is now. But I don't think the business model of financial services is necessarily "fraud."

I thought most economists agreed nafta didn't really do shit
Mixed opinion. Type of jobs changed. Raised Mexican living standard -> Increased imports from the US. Would this have occurred without NAFTA?
 
Also, you're entirely ignoring the three or four studies we have that show that whatever a candidate runs on is what they try to do when elected.

I'm not actually disputing that at all. One of the reasons that corporations make donations to parties that are generally against their interests is to have a foot in the door in order to soften those attempts, or direct them in ways that are less favorable to their competitors, They don't do it because they think it'll cancel them out (that's why they donate even more money to the party that's traditionally focused on their interests).

Also those studies are like many social science studies a balance of probabilities thing. It doesn't mean that no candidate will ever drop something they ran on , if their corporate donors put enough pressure on just that by and large candidates tend to attempt to do things they were elected on. Likewise I'm sure there's been candidates who've never even looked at the list of corporations who've provided money to them , to make sure it doesn't give them any influence and done their best to make sure their staff avoid giving influence based on such things too.
 
Hillary needs to stay above it. She's winning and Bernies people are saying what they feel they need to to stay relevant. However, I've never been unwilling to believe he won't burn this thing down in the way out. However I think that only hurts him in the long run.

Now you're just Diablosing.

Also in the ER might have surgery tonight or tomorrow depending on the emergency CT scan

What for?

It does need to be well-regulated, and a better regulated industry than it is now. But I don't think the business model of financial services is necessarily "fraud."

I agree the idea of financial services isn't farud... but I thought it was proven that there was systemic fraud that lead to the housing crash and then subsequently the great recession. That's usually what people talk about when they reference fraud in the finance sector.
 

Iolo

Member
Hillary needs to stay above it. She's winning and Bernies people are saying what they feel they need to to stay relevant. However, I've never been unwilling to believe he won't burn this thing down in the way out. However I think that only hurts him in the long run.

Also in the ER might have surgery tonight or tomorrow depending on the emergency CT scan

good luck
 

danm999

Member
Given the way they treated his loss in Nevada and the rough few weeks ahead, I'm thinking if Sanders starts going negative the story will become underdog gets desperate.
 
No you're just Diablosing.



What for?
Ulnar nerve entrapment. But it's gotten way worse. I have no feeling at all on that side of my hand. Except for the extreme pain and insane swelling.

As to my point, Bernie has never given the impression of being a team player. He's fighting for his campaign and I don't think what he's saying right now will hurt Hillary in the general. It won't help him though.
 

CCS

Banned
Hillary needs to stay above it. She's winning and Bernies people are saying what they feel they need to to stay relevant. However, I've never been unwilling to believe he won't burn this thing down in the way out. However I think that only hurts him in the long run.

Also in the ER might have surgery tonight or tomorrow depending on the emergency CT scan

Good luck Adam, hope it goes okay!!
 
Are you guys seriously worried about Trump [...]

Not really, insofar as I don't really think he has a path to victory. Just saying he's the single most capable person in the race with regards to co-opting Sanders' talking points.


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(it may also be a personal attack but I'm really not okay with the idea that policy attacks that coincide with personal ones should be off limits, that potentially handwaves a lot of serious issues).

I mean, we're not saying those attacks should be off limits - we're saying he should stop being a weaselly little shit and call them what they are, instead of this weird half-measure where he gets to pretend he's not really "attacking" her.
 
If the bolded is true then the idea that Hillary is absolutely spotless on this, as the last page of discussion seems to imply seems a bit questionable. If the money has an influence on policy then clearly the money is a valid policy complaint (it may also be a personal attack but I'm really not okay with the idea that policy attacks that coincide with personal ones should be off limits, that potentially handwaves a lot of serious issues).

There is clearly an influence on how much money plays into politics. Its one of the reasons as to why we have so many climate change deniers in congress. But Bernie's insistence that he isn't attacking her character while doing it is odd. If he feels so passionately that she is bought and she'd be the worst corporate shill ever as president than he should say it outright.

But I think you need more evidence than donations. I would like voting records and positions she's supported as to why she specifically isn't trust worthy. But using it as a crutch to discredit her plans and legislation comes off as a bit bogus to me. We know that politicians do in-fact try to keep their campaign promises. Generally if someone is bought out they are like the above mentioned Scott Walker, they'll defend corporate interest positions from the beginning, rather than campaign on one thing and then totally switch around once they get into office.

Saying she won't appoint justices that will overturn citizens united for example doesn't work for me seeing as how all four of the justices Bill Clinton and Obama appointed voted against it despite the fact that they raised money for their campaigns in the same ways Hillary has.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Looks like most undecideds in Georgia went to Hillary.
 
I agree the idea of financial services isn't farud... but I thought it was proven that there was systemic fraud that lead to the housing crash and then subsequently the great recession. That's usually what people talk about when they reference fraud in the finance sector.
While there's a valid criticism in how deregulation and lack of oversight allowed unethical behaviour EDIT: or as elaborated below just plain stupidity, I'm pretty sure that those "adjectives" are meant to simply describe the industry as a whole and the people working in it today.

I'd say the framing is of the concept of Wall St and, more generally, the financial sector as the enemy.
 
It does need to be well-regulated, and a better regulated industry than it is now. But I don't think the business model of financial services is necessarily "fraud."

Mixed opinion. Raised Mexican living standard -> Increased imports from the US. Would this have occurred without NAFTA?

I always have mixed feelings about financial investment as its currently practiced. The idea that you provide money to a corporation so it can do things and in return you own a bit of the corporation and it then pays out dividends from its profits based on that holding is entirely logical. Its the speculatory buying and selling that seems questionable but its inevitable given that share in the company is an asset with a non-fixed value and that's inherent (since dividends may or may not be paid and may change in value based on future performance) , the way the value fluctuates based on perceived health of the company which is in part based on its own share price just adds to that.

TL:DR Capital investment is necessary for companies to work. The return is inherently a tradeable asset. The way people react to that is probably not great but I don't really see much of a way to do anything about it.
 

Cerium

Member
So remember how I shorted Rubio a long time ago when he was running near 50%? I sold after he tanked in New Hampshire.

aIwPRud.png


It's all about timing.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I think bernies attacks, er, "attacks," are fine. They're general enough that they don't finger Hillary in a sound byte, and you guys may also forget everything he's saying applies to the republicans like 9x over.

Calling for him to get out now is fantasy IMO. I'm glad Hillary had gotten a lot more debate prep. She's actually, on balance, amazing at it.

I don't want Bernie to go scorched earth and I doubt he will. I think right now they are just really trying to get ahead of a potential 30 Point loss in South Carolina.

Also as someone who works for a bank, it's not clear to me he even understands 100% of what a bank does. But that's sort of my gripe about people in general. To call fundamental lending and risk management "fraud" is to get me to tell you to go fuck yourself.
 
While there's a valid criticism in how deregulation and lack of oversight allowed unethical behaviour, I'm pretty sure that those "adjectives" are meant to simply describe the industry as a whole and the people working in it today.

I'd say the framing is of the concept of Wall St and, more generally, the financial sector as the enemy.

i mean fair enough... not everyone in Wall Street is out to get us... It's just a basic framing that all politicians do to get people to wrap their minds around what they want to accomplish.

When I brought up that fact that people were defending Wall Street I wasn't implying that they are an all encompassing conspiracy out to get us... but asking why does Wall Street really need offending? They are capable of doing that themselves... We certainly don't need to shill out for them.
 

PBY

Banned
Also as someone who works for a bank, it's not clear to me he even understands 100% of what a bank does. But that's sort of my gripe about people in general. To call fundamental lending and risk management "fraud" is to get me to tell you to go fuck yourself.

I work in the private fund space, and I agree - wholesale demonization of wall street and "wall street speculation" doesn't begin to understand the issues.
 
I think she's really always been good at debates, although the practice has probably scraped away the rust. The idea that she wasn't was basically due to DWS being an idiot.

Also, I'm again curious whether anyone would try and tie the words "greed, fraudulent, dishonesty" to President Obama out of curiosity? I'm pretty sure that people try and tie the word "arrogant" to him all the time, but that's a different thing altogether.

Does anyone think his current and pending SCOTUS appointments would be a favorable vote for Citizens United?
 

CCS

Banned
I work in the private fund space, and I agree - wholesale demonization of wall street and "wall street speculation" doesn't begin to understand the issues.

As of September I will be working in a financial regulator, and I agree with the two of you.
 
I'm fine with Bernie's "attacks", it's the same old crap. I'm not cool with the "we won more Latinos" bullshit

Georgia poll: Getting destroyed in a state with the second most delegates on Super Tuesday is REAL bad for Bernie
 

pigeon

Banned
I agree the idea of financial services isn't farud... but I thought it was proven that there was systemic fraud that lead to the housing crash and then subsequently the great recession. That's usually what people talk about when they reference fraud in the finance sector.

This is definitely not proven. A lot of banks paid fines for doing shoddy underwriting on mortgage loans and then not necessarily making that clear to investors. Some of those investors got really overleveraged because of risk models that incorrectly assumed risks would be diversified instead of correlated and not looking carefully at the loans in the theoretically diversified assets. Those overleveraged investors ended up losing a lot of money and being unable to cover it, while simultaneously owing a lot of money to a lot of other people, who also owed other people money, etc., etc., creating a network of interdependent financial institutions that might conceivably all collapse at once. Also the overall financial uncertainty and panic caused a lot of individual people to lose a lot of their assets, end up underwater on their mortgages, lose their jobs, etc., and otherwise get screwed.

So that was bad! But saying it was fundamentally about systematic fraud is, like, I think pretty questionable. Because this doesn't go that far back -- the reason banks were doing shoddy underwriting is that there was enormous pressure on them to produce mortgage loans that could be securitized, because people believed that securitizing them would make the underwriting relatively unimportant. And fraud also requires foreknowledge. Most of these banks were actually holding securitized mortgages, loaning money to companies that held them, etc. There aren't any smoking guns of people being like "we got them to buy the shitty mortgages, run away before they blow up." People's actual investment decisions reflected a belief that these bonds would probably be fine. Because they had been fine up til they weren't!

If you want a two-word answer for why the financial crisis happened, my two-word answer is "speculative bubble." This answer has the advantage of lots of historical precedent. It has the disadvantage of not being easy to make illegal. The best you can do is to require banks to hold more capital, make it harder for them to be interdependent, etc. Which is, you know, all mostly what Dodd-Frank does, and what Hillary would expand on.
 

CCS

Banned
This is definitely not proven. A lot of banks paid fines for doing shoddy underwriting on mortgage loans and then not necessarily making that clear to investors. Some of those investors got really overleveraged because of risk models that incorrectly assumed risks would be diversified instead of correlated and not looking carefully at the loans in the theoretically diversified assets. Those overleveraged investors ended up losing a lot of money and being unable to cover it, while simultaneously owing a lot of money to a lot of other people, who also owed other people money, etc., etc., creating a network of interdependent financial institutions that might conceivably all collapse at once. Also the overall financial uncertainty and panic caused a lot of individual people to lose a lot of their assets, end up underwater on their mortgages, lose their jobs, etc., and otherwise get screwed.

So that was bad! But saying it was fundamentally about systematic fraud is, like, I think pretty questionable. Because this doesn't go that far back -- the reason banks were doing shoddy underwriting is that there was enormous pressure on them to produce mortgage loans that could be securitized, because people believed that securitizing them would make the underwriting relatively unimportant. And fraud also requires foreknowledge. Most of these banks were actually holding securitized mortgages, loaning money to companies that held them, etc. There aren't any smoking guns of people being like "we got them to buy the shitty mortgages, run away before they blow up." People's actual investment decisions reflected a belief that these bonds would probably be fine. Because they had been fine up til they weren't!

If you want a two-word answer for why the financial crisis happened, my two-word answer is "speculative bubble." This answer has the advantage of lots of historical precedent. It has the disadvantage of not being easy to make illegal. The best you can do is to require banks to hold more capital, make it harder for them to be interdependent, etc. Which is, you know, all mostly what Dodd-Frank does, and what Hillary would expand on.

Pretty much this. My one line explanation for it generally is "It wasn't mass fraud or criminality, just a mixture of poor decision making, incompetence by a few key figures, and the fact that humans are suckers for bubbles."
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
My answer is "shitty everyone." But glass steagle still wouldn't have stopped derivatives from over levering the shadow banking system. I don't think the government lost a cent in any big bank. To this day the issue wasn't solvency on "Wall Street". Why doesn't he just say he hates trading? That's what he really means; not even investment banking fits the bill.

I also blame poors. Just because.
 
I mean, that just opens him up to "well, you lost black people by 54 then"
This is exactly what MSNBC just did to Weaver. "Okay so you may or may not have won Latinos but if you believe those same entrance polls you lost black voters by 54."

Weaver said something about how black voters aren't monolithic and then diverted to talk about how there's other states at play on Super Tuesday.
 
Also, I'm again curious whether anyone would try and tie the words "greed, fraudulent, dishonesty" to President Obama out of curiosity? I'm pretty sure that people try and tie the word "arrogant" to him all the time, but that's a different thing altogether.

I think it seems pretty obvious towards most that Obama has tried as hard as he can to fight on the right sides of issues that work against everyday Americans. I don't think saying "Obama hasn't delivered what people want because he is a wallstreet puppet" would work because nobody actually believes that. Its pretty clear that it has been republicans in congress working against people's interests and not the President.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
How many delegates would Bernie even get in Georgia? With such a wide lead across almost all demographics, it's likely she'd win the at-large delegates (22) and the district delegates (67).
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
This is exactly what MSNBC just did to Weaver. "Okay so you may or may not have won Latinos but if you believe those same entrance polls you lost black voters by 54."

Weaver said something about how black voters aren't monolithic and then diverted to talk about how there's other states at play on Super Tuesday.

what were you saying about Latinos now Weaver?
 
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