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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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C

CCS

Banned
kirblar said:
Latest Hillary/Donald "My twitter has become so powerful" Trump poll in VA- Clinton +17 - http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/va/virginia_trump_vs_clinton-5542.html
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Damn, that's good.

shinra-bansho said:
Cruz pulling out isn't really good for Rubio.

Ideally, Rubio wants Cruz to stay in, in a third place position pulling away votes from The .
Click to expand...

Do we have any polling on where Cruz's voters go?

ivysaur12 said:
The most delegate rich-districts in Illinois are majority black districts and majority minority districts, so she should sweep most of those if she holds those margins. My guess is that Bernie might only be able to scrape up 20-30 of these 102 district delegates.

Tammy Duckworth's district is tied for allocating the least number of delegates at 4.
Click to expand...

Please Ivy, be gentle. I don't know if I can take this much pleasure.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
shinra-bansho said:
Cruz pulling out isn't really good for Rubio.

Ideally, Rubio wants Cruz to stay in, in a third place position pulling away votes from The Donald.
Click to expand...

No fucking way. Rubio gains way more Cruz voters than Trump. By a lot.

All Cruz is doing is delegate-blocking Rubio.

If you think Rubio's path is through a brokered convention where Trump has the lead going into it, lol because you can RIP Republican national party 2016 in that case. They will get annihilated in Congress and WH.

If Cruz dropped out tomorrow, Rubio wins the primary. hands down.
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
Do we have numbers for how Cruz supporters would split ? I remember Trump had god awful favourables with all the other candidate pools , but that was at a time when there were way more candidates in. How do Cruz voters split if their choice is between Trump or Rubio ? Since they are likely mainly Evangelicals of the Fundamentalist flavour I can't see them liking either option very much but they'll vote for somebody.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Black Mamba said:
No fucking way. Rubio gains way more Cruz voters than Trump. By a lot.

All Cruz is doing is delegate-blocking Rubio.

If you think Rubio's path is through a brokered convention where Trump has the lead going into it, lol because you can RIP Republican national party 2016 in that case. They will get annihilated in Congress and WH.

If Cruz dropped out tomorrow, Rubio wins the primary. hands down.
Click to expand...

CAN WE PLEASE STOP WITH THIS

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/who-gains-the-most-when-the-gop-field-shrinks

If Cruz drops tomorrow:

Rubio gets 33% of his voters.

Trump gets 26%.

Not "way more."
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Elaugaufein said:
Do we have numbers for how Cruz supporters would split ? I remember Trump had god awful favourables with all the other candidate pools , but that was at a time when there were way more candidates in. How do Cruz voters split if their choice is between Trump or Rubio ? Since they are likely mainly Evangelicals of the Fundamentalist flavour I can't see them liking either option very much but they'll vote for somebody.
Click to expand...

Polling shows that Rubio benefits more than Trump. Cruz dropping out also clears the way for it to become a 2 man race where Rubio becomes the favorite.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Hmm, I had thought that Cruz's tea party ultra-conservative base wouldn't be partial to Mr Amnesty.
cruz_flow_new.jpg

cruz_supporters_second_choice_chartbuilder.png
Click to expand...

Polling gives mixed signals; top image is older. Guessing there's Fiorina/Rubio overlap.

I still see Cruz pulling out as bad for Rubio despite the national picture. Because at the state level, he acts as a circuit breaker. He competes with Trump in states where Rubio can't.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
shinra-bansho said:
Hmm, I had thought that Cruz's tea party ultra-conservative base wouldn't be partial to Mr Amnesty.


Polling gives mixed signals, top image is older.

I still see Cruz pulling out as bad for Rubio despite the national picture. Because at the state level, he acts as a circuit breaker. He competes with Trump in states where Rubio can't.
Click to expand...

I wonder what the 3rd choice would be after Carson...
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Bernie needs to just stop. It's over. He has zero chance to win, just like a month ago.
 
U

UltimaPooh

Member
Plinko said:
Bernie needs to just stop. It's over. He has zero chance to win, just like a month ago.
Click to expand...

Nah.

Bernie is the scrappy fighter... he needs to keep going. We still got months to go.

It's not like Hilary will be stronger and better for it while the Republicans are still going at it.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Plinko said:
CAN WE PLEASE STOP WITH THIS

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/who-gains-the-most-when-the-gop-field-shrinks

If Cruz drops tomorrow:

Rubio gets 33% of his voters.

Trump gets 26%.

Not "way more."
Click to expand...

That's with others in the race. If Cruz drops out, Kasich drops out soon too. You have 20% in that poll going to Kasich/Jeb/Don't know. They're going to Rubio! Also lol @ 17% going to Carson. That will not happen when the vote actually matters in a 3 man race.

Why do you think in every head to head, Rubio beats Trump? How is that possible if Cruz voters aren't going to him?
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
shinra-bansho said:
Hmm, I had thought that Cruz's tea party ultra-conservative base wouldn't be partial to Mr Amnesty.


Polling gives mixed signals; top image is older. Guessing there's Fiorina/Rubio overlap.

I still see Cruz pulling out as bad for Rubio despite the national picture. Because at the state level, he acts as a circuit breaker. He competes with Trump in states where Rubio can't.
Click to expand...

But you're forgetting the delegate math.

Rubio's best state are proportional. Since Cruz is in it, he's almost entirely eating delegates away from Rubio,

In trump's best states, it's winner take all. That means Rubio has no shot with Cruz in the race.

Look, Cruz dropping out would basically turn this into a trump vs rubio race. Kasich would drop out within a week.

Rubio beats Trump head to head.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Black Mamba said:
That's with others in the race. If Cruz drops out, Kasich drops out soon too. You have 20% in that poll going to Kasich/Jeb/Don't know. They're going to Rubio! Also lol @ 17% going to Carson. That will not happen when the vote actually matters in a 3 man race.

Why do you think in every head to head, Rubio beats Trump? How is that possible if Cruz voters aren't going to him?
Click to expand...

If everyone else drops out? Of course.

Is Carson going to drop out? I don't think so--not yet anyway. Also, why in the world would Cruz drop out before Super Tuesday?

Also, Trump is actually up 5% in that Georgia poll since two weeks ago--same as Rubio. People are still flocking to him.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
UltimaPooh said:
Nah.

Bernie is the scrappy fighter... he needs to keep going. We still got months to go.

It's not like Hilary will be stronger and better for it while the Republicans are still going at it.
Click to expand...
She'd be hoarding cash instead of spending it though.

And really, if she wins by anything like that poll's margin in Georgia, he basically needs to take Massachusetts by like 50+ pts or something to even continue the charade of being competitive. As ivy pointed out that one state would give her something like an 80 delegate lead.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
You deserve it not loneliness. The other thing. That was for CCS I might not have typed good

The cute nurse likes Hillary but he has a partner. At least he plays for my team.

Hillary is in good position you know and winning eighth? That's doable. We got this so good GillaryGraft
 
Y

Yellowtail

Member
Hillary Clinton wants to bring back the public option, offering a competing vision to Bernie Sanders’ support for a more progressive health care system.

Clinton's campaign has updated its website to note her continued support for the government-run health plan that was dropped from Obamacare during the law's drafting. The idea was popular among progressives who prefer a single-payer plan -- like the one Bernie Sanders is touting.

Clinton supported the public option in her 2008 presidential campaign, and during the drafting of the Affordable Care Act a year later, Congress debated allowing a government-run plan to compete with private insurers. However, the public option was eliminated from the legislation because of objections from moderate Senate Democrats who opposed a greater government role in providing health care. But Clinton has hardly referenced her previous support for the idea during the 2016 campaign, and instead has called for building on President Barack Obama’s health care law.

A new version of Clinton’s campaign website suggests she won't try to push the public option through Congress, but instead will work with governors using existing flexibility under Obamacare "to empower states to establish a public option choice." That may be a reference to a waiver program taking effect in 2017 that lets states assert greater control over their health care systems.
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http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/hillary-clinton-health-care-bernie-sanders-219643
 
J

Jarmel

Banned
Cruz only matters a little past the SEC. He'll hold out till mid March at the earliest at which point the damage has been done.
 
C

CCS

Banned
adam387 said:
You deserve it not loneliness. The other thing. That was for CCS I might not have typed good

The cute nurse likes Hillary but he has a partner. At least he plays for my team.

Hillary is in good position you know and winning eighth? That's doable. We got this so good GillaryGraft
Click to expand...

Thank you Adam. I've never encountered a cute gay nurse :( most of the nurses I've been treated by seem to be about 60 lol
 
U

UltimaPooh

Member
shinra-bansho said:
She'd be hoarding cash instead of spending it though.
Click to expand...

Good point. At this point though as Bernie-GAF... I want it to be about sending a message and opportunities for Hilary to expand on what she really wants to accomplish. If she want's the crown it's not going to be so easy. I don't want it to be... oh well it's over now guess I gotta go with Hilary. I want to dream a little longer.


adam387 said:
You deserve it not loneliness. The other thing. That was for CCS I might not have typed good

The cute nurse likes Hillary but he has a partner. At least he plays for my team.

Hillary is in good position you know and winning eighth? That's doable. We got this so good GillaryGraft
Click to expand...

I think the morphine is kicking in.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Plinko said:
If everyone else drops out? Of course.

Is Carson going to drop out? I don't think so--not yet anyway. Also, why in the world would Cruz drop out before Super Tuesday?

Also, Trump is actually up 5% in that Georgia poll since two weeks ago--same as Rubio. People are still flocking to him.
Click to expand...

When did I argue Cruz is dropping out? I'm arguing against the position that Cruz being in the race helps Rubio. That's nonsense.

Trump is going to benefit from the "eventual leader" thing. People who are breaking now, but not day of, can still flock to him (especially undecideds). A lot of people wait a bit to see who is going to win to vote for them.

My argument is that Cruz is destroying Rubio's bid. He's also the only GOPer the party can't control (besides Trump).
 
W

watershed

Banned
The public option is the next step in making the ACA work better. That and lowering drug prices and expanding medicare coverage. Working with states is good for states that want to take on that role, but ultimately stuff will have to get thru congress sooner or later.
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
shinra-bansho said:
Hmm, I had thought that Cruz's tea party ultra-conservative base wouldn't be partial to Mr Amnesty.


Polling gives mixed signals; top image is older. Guessing there's Fiorina/Rubio overlap.

I still see Cruz pulling out as bad for Rubio despite the national picture. Because at the state level, he acts as a circuit breaker. He competes with Trump in states where Rubio can't.
Click to expand...

Hmm. So assuming the more favourable to Rubio split (and that Bush voters have mainly gone to Kasich and those that would have gone to Bush also go to Kasich):

Trump: 31.7 + (18.7 * 0.26) = 36.562
Rubio 22.7 +(18.7 * 0.3333) = 28.9
Cruz 18.7 -> 0
Carson 8.1 + (18.7 * 0.17) = 11.279
Kasich 7.9 + (18.7 * 0.1) = 9.77

Rubio still needs Kaisch to drop to pull ahead (just) and then he needs to pray that either Carson stays in or that Carson's voters break more for him than Trump (which is a maybe? Carson's supporters include a lot of evangelicals so they'd probably split close to Cruz's which mildly favors Rubio).
 
C

CCS

Banned
Public option is a great idea. Improves the ACA, and works within the existing framework rather than having to try and get another revamp through.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Black Mamba said:
When did I argue Cruz is dropping out? I'm arguing against the position that Cruz being in the race helps Rubio. That's nonsense.

.
Click to expand...

If Cruz drops out, Kasich drops out soon too. You have 20% in that poll going to Kasich/Jeb/Don't know. They're going to Rubio! Also lol @ 17% going to Carson. That will not happen when the vote actually matters in a 3 man race.
Click to expand...

You opened your post with it, so I just assumed that's where you were heading.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
adam387 said:
Thank you we got 2 shots of morphine in me and my Bernie bro stopped in yaaaaass we both want the nurse and I rubbed his nose in Georgia. Yaaassssss
Click to expand...

Outside the whole being sick thing, it sounds like a decent night. Hope you have a good ending, and I'm not talking about a 3-way.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Elaugaufein said:
Hmm. So assuming the more favourable to Rubio split (and that Bush voters have mainly gone to Kasich and those that would have gone to Bush also go to Kasich):

Trump: 31.7 + (18.7 * 0.26) = 36.562
Rubio 22.7 +(18.7 * 0.3333) = 28.9
Cruz 18.7 -> 0
Carson 8.1 + (18.7 * 0.17) = 11.279
Kasich 7.9 + (18.7 * 0.1) = 9.77

Rubio still needs Kaisch to drop to pull ahead (just) and then he needs to pray that either Carson stays in or that Carson's voters break more for him than Trump (which is a maybe? Carson's supporters include a lot of evangelicals so they'd probably split close to Cruz's which mildly favors Rubio).
Click to expand...

If Cruz drops out, so does Kasich. This is important and needs to be understood.

There is no scenario where Kasich stays in past 1 election if Cruz is gone. The pressure to drop will be so immense and Rubio will promise him the moon.

Plinko said:
You opened your post with it, so I just assumed that's where you were heading.
Click to expand...

That was clearly in the context of what would happen if Cruz dropped out, not that I think he actually is.
 
U

UltimaPooh

Member
Black Mamba said:
Hillary is NOT supporting a federal public option, BTW. She's asking governors to support it. big difference.
Click to expand...

Yeah. Not through legislative means. We'll see how this goes... as a lot of states fucked it up the first time when they had the option to create their own setup but went with a federal frame work.
 
T

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
CCS said:
Public option is a great idea. Improves the ACA, and works within the existing framework rather than having to try and get another revamp through.
Click to expand...

Yup and critically the public option can be used to drive prices down over time so that single payer is economically feasible in 10 or so years
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
BTW, we get election numbers on religion for the GOP and race for the Dems, but can't we do more?

Who are Jews voting for, Hillary or Bernie? What about Muslims? And Asians?

Granted, the GOP is pretty much covered already but I want more Dem data!
 
N

noshten

Member
MSNBC cut away from a live Bernie Sanders press conference this afternoon as the Democratic presidential candidate was talking about his opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement


MSNBC Cans Only Cable TV Host Who Extensively Covered TPP

[During an 18 month period] CNN and Fox News each mentioned the TPP during two broadcasts. MSNBC's The Ed Show discussed the trade agreement on 71 broadcasts, but the TPP was mentioned on the network's other evening programming only twice (once by host Ed Schultz during coverage of the president's State of the Union speech and a passing mention by All In host Chris Hayes).
Click to expand...

It has to be noted that Comcast, the company that owns MSNBC, is a big supporter of the TPP. Comcast hired a phalanx of lobbyists to spearhead a targeted campaign to push for Trade Promotion Authority, which recently passed. Included among the individuals it was paying was the former chief of staff for former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA).
Click to expand...

screen_shot_2015-07-24_at_10.45.10_am.png
 
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