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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Black Mamba said:
The only thing that would actually make sense that McConnell is doing is possibly this.

1. Refuse to sign off on any nominee

2. Wait til trump gets nomination

3. Wait til it becomes obvious Trump will lose

4. Take up moderate nominee before Hillary becomes Pres.

So hold off now until things shape up. If Rubio wins he might think they have a chance so it's worth waiting. But if it's obvious they'll lose the election, he'll cut his losses. And by then it might be too late to be primaried as well.
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No way does Obama give them a moderate nominee if they wait that long. He'd give them one now, but once it becomes clear Hillary would win that's the end of their leverage (especially if it also looks like the Senate will flip).
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Imagine Dems swinging nine Senate seats this year (WI, IL, NH, FL, PA, OH, NC, MO, AZ). That would give them a 55-45 edge heading into 2018.

There are only five Romney state Democrats left in the Senate and they're all up then. They all seem to be reasonably well liked so their losses aren't guaranteed, but even losing all of them would produce a tie. Additionally Nevada will be up that year providing a pickup opportunity, although Arizona (Flake only won by 3) might be out of reach in a midterm year.

Then again, WI, PA, FL, VA and OH could be on the map given that three of those states are swingy in general while WI and PA are susceptible to electing Republicans in midterm years. Can't take anything for granted.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
The devotion and worship Republicans have towards Gitmo and torture kind of undercuts their support of freedom and the constitution, idk.

I mean, it makes sense if they're the party of Trump, but they're both pretending they're not the party of Trump and all these Senators are saying that Gitmo should stay open because it's awesome.
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
Black Mamba said:
I've read articles in the past about how Romney's team did just as you said, adjusting the polls.

In the documentary, Romney, and especially his family, really looked stunned at the defeat. Like, deer in the headlights stunned. I can't believe he faked that for a dude doing a in moment documentary.
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A good comparison would be 2008 and 2004. McCain's camp knew for quite some time that he was going to lose. Overall Romney's camp went in feeling they were in good position to win if certain things went their way in Ohio and some other states. I'd compare their mindset moreso to how Kerry's folks went into election night: underdogs but hopeful with a specific gameplan that ultimately fell apart when reality struck. Romney's GOTV tracker crashed on election day and from what I understand they were largely scrambling throughout most of the day. Whereas we pretty much knew it was over by 2PM.

They didn't expect blacks and young people to turn out so fiercely. I'm still amazed at the loyalty displayed by many black voters in Ohio who stood in line for hours, no matter what. The candidate matters. And the perception of how he or she is treated. It's 2016 and republicans still don't get that the way they disrespect Obama fuels a lot of support for him.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Imagine Dems swinging nine Senate seats this year (WI, IL, NH, FL, PA, OH, NC, MO, AZ). That would give them a 55-45 edge heading into 2018.

There are only five Romney state Democrats left in the Senate and they're all up then. They all seem to be reasonably well liked so their losses aren't guaranteed, but even losing all of them would produce a tie. Additionally Nevada will be up that year providing a pickup opportunity, although Arizona (Flake only won by 3) might be out of reach in a midterm year.

Then again, WI, PA, FL, VA and OH could be on the map given that three of those states are swingy in general while WI and PA are susceptible to electing Republicans in midterm years. Can't take anything for granted.
Click to expand...

I think there's a good chance Donnelly loses, but clearly we're keeping the ND seat.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
B-Dubs said:
No way does Obama give them a moderate nominee if they wait that long. He'd give them one now, but once it becomes clear Hillary would win that's the end of their leverage (especially if it also looks like the Senate will flip).
Click to expand...

While on its face, I agree, I'm thinking by not even having hearings, that Obama's nominee is "stuck" and McConnell can pull them back in at any moment. Especially if it's summer.

And I don't think Obama would pull someone the moment McConnell flips. It would be both bad optics and I don't think Obama would do that to the nominee.

But we'll see how this plays out. Maybe Obama will pull back well before the flip can happen and then nominate someone else.

By not even having hearings/rejecting, I'm not sure how the process plays out in terms of nominating someone else.
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
What exactly would a moderate Justice that Obama would appoint be like?

Its hard for me to imagine Obama would appoint a justice that the GOP would consider "moderate"
 
M

Makai

Member
I'm applying to the biggest investment bank in the world and they need me to disclose my political contributions on a form for compliance.

Bernard Sanders - $50

This feels rigged! lol
 
K

kirblar

Member
Makai said:
I'm applying to the biggest investment bank in the world and they need me to disclose my political contributions on a form for compliance.

Bernard Sanders - $50

This feels rigged! lol
Click to expand...
Womp womp.

The only way to win is not to play. (or to just volunteer)
 
D

Diablos

Member
What the fuck GOP Senate judiciary committee. What the fuck.

I'm not convinced this will blow up in their faces. Obama needs to get a nominee confirmed. I wonder if Biden can cite a constitutional crisis and hold a vote
 
K

kirblar

Member
Diablos said:
What the fuck GOP Senate judiciary committee. What the fuck.

I'm not convinced this will blow up in their faces. Obama needs to get a nominee confirmed. I wonder if Biden can cite a constitutional crisis and hold a vote
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If they think Trump is going to tank them, stalling till Hillary comes in w/ a D majority lets them save face with their insano base.

Of course, stalling helps create that D majority, it'll be '98 all over again.
 
C

Cerium

Member
VendettaRed07 said:
I don't really know much about him. Is he pro-life/pro-gun/anti-immigration? Its hard for me to imagine that Obama would appoint anyone who was any of those things, but also hard for me to imagine the GOP accepting anyone who wasn't all three
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There's no proof of his positions on any of those as legal issues.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
I actually rewatched MSNBC coverage of 2012 election night up until Romney concession. So good that night was. Romney butt hurt at Ohio call was so amazing to see.
 
P

PBY

Banned
Makai said:
I'm applying to the biggest investment bank in the world and they need me to disclose my political contributions on a form for compliance.

Bernard Sanders - $50

This feels rigged! lol
Click to expand...

You gotta throw Hilldawg 50 before you apply lol
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
cartoon_soldier said:
I actually rewatched MSNBC coverage of 2012 election night up until Romney concession. So good that night was. Romney butt hurt at Ohio call was so amazing to see.
Click to expand...
I'll probably rewatch it at some point around the conventions. The margins of the states, the Senate call after Senate call for the Democrats, the emphasis on how demographically fucked the GOP is, Chris Matthews & Rachel Maddow audibly gasping or "ooooh"-ing off-camera when certain races or states were called.. it was an incredibly fun broadcast.

Edit: here's the first video of the playlist:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yRodqexUv84
 
C

CCS

Banned
HylianTom said:
I'll probably rewatch it at some point around the conventions. The margins of the state's, the Senate call after Senate call for the Democrate, the emphasis on how demographically fucked the GOP is, Chris Matthews & Rachel Maddow audibly gasping or "ooooh"-ing off-camera when certain races or states were called.. it was an incredibly fun broadcast.

Edit: here's the first video of the playlist:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yRodqexUv84
Click to expand...

Thank you, will rewatch as my pre-bedtime entertainment for this week :D

Macho Madness said:
You can start here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yRodqexUv84

I've watched it before.
Click to expand...

Cheers man :)
 
H

Holmes

Member
ivysaur12 said:
She would still win almost all the delegates there since SO MANY Dem delegates going forward are based on CD.
Click to expand...
So it's going to be like South Carolina last Saturday with Rubio. "Big victory for Sanders! Reaches 35% in Georgia! (takes almost no delegates)"
 
H

Hindl

Member
TumblingHippo said:
Out of nowhere remembering this post-2012 election commentary from a very upset Hannity, and reflecting on how it's actually being applied to the Republican party right now:

So was he right, or just wrong about what party it'd apply to?
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Lol @ Obama invented dirty politics and tactics in a general. Completely glossing over people like Lee Atwater. Hell you can go back to Gilded Age Presidents and find political cartoonists penning stories and pictures about illegitimate children, tax avoidance, etc. Hell, Grover Cleveland was raked over the coals for being a bachelor.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Trump: "I've been very nice to Rubio, because he hasn't hit me. When he does, you will see what happens."

C'mon, Rubio.. take the bait. Taaaaake it.
 
C

CCS

Banned
HylianTom said:
Donald "It was a great night for Mexico" Trump: "I've been very nice to Rubio, because he hasn't hit me. When he does, you will see what happens."

C'mon, Rubio.. take the bait. Taaaaake it.
Click to expand...

Come on Rubio, you're dumb enough to fall for it. Please do.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Cerium said:
Srinivasan.
Click to expand...

Heck, even Ted Cruz is friends with him (for now). :D

Aside:
Couple of interesting articles about the Trump phenomenon

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-02-19/donald-trump-class-warrior

WSJ warning, but still an interesting read (don't agree with him about a lot of it, but still, interesting read)

http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trumps-america-1455290458

and finally the atlantic

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics...al-correctness-away-from-donald-trump/470271/

Y2Kev said:
We are kind of one.
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We are. I'm kind of sad we don't have more moderates / Republican posters on the OT GAF side of things. (Don't blame them in the slightest, though)
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Macho Madness said:
Yeah, this is where it gets touchy for Sanders. He can be down just 20-30 points and get nothing.
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The vast majority of states going forward allocate the majority of their delegates in CD and fewer proportionally. So if she has the geographic advantage in the majority of these states, he's fucked.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
PBY said:
Man.... Trump ceiling is real
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Politico: "Rubio is skyrocketing!!!"

11-point deficit.

As for Trump/Rubio, I guarantee Rubio just ignores Trump. He won't go at him head-to-head.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Cybit said:
We are. I'm kind of sad we don't have more moderates / Republican posters on the OT GAF side of things. (Don't blame them in the slightest, though)
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Part of it's getting dog piled when they try and have a discussion, but part of it is also that the NeoGAF rules make a lot of the social conservative beliefs a tough needle to thread without getting banned.
 
T

theprodigy

Member
ivysaur12 said:
The vast majority of states going forward allocate the majority of their delegates in CD and fewer proportionally. So if she has the geographic advantage in the majority of these states, he's fucked.
Click to expand...

???

the CD delegates are still awarded proportionally, meaning as long as Bernie gets 15% he'll get at least one in each district

(he's still screwed but come on)
 
JetBlackPanda

JetBlackPanda

Member
B-Dubs said:
Part of it's getting dog piled when they try and have a discussion, but part of it is also that the NeoGAF rules make a lot of the social conservative beliefs a tough needle to thread without getting banned.
Click to expand...

its also harder and harder to find a moderate republican that is under the age of 50.
 
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