No way does Obama give them a moderate nominee if they wait that long. He'd give them one now, but once it becomes clear Hillary would win that's the end of their leverage (especially if it also looks like the Senate will flip).
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada
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No way does Obama give them a moderate nominee if they wait that long. He'd give them one now, but once it becomes clear Hillary would win that's the end of their leverage (especially if it also looks like the Senate will flip).
Aaron Strife
Banned
Imagine Dems swinging nine Senate seats this year (WI, IL, NH, FL, PA, OH, NC, MO, AZ). That would give them a 55-45 edge heading into 2018.
There are only five Romney state Democrats left in the Senate and they're all up then. They all seem to be reasonably well liked so their losses aren't guaranteed, but even losing all of them would produce a tie. Additionally Nevada will be up that year providing a pickup opportunity, although Arizona (Flake only won by 3) might be out of reach in a midterm year.
Then again, WI, PA, FL, VA and OH could be on the map given that three of those states are swingy in general while WI and PA are susceptible to electing Republicans in midterm years. Can't take anything for granted.
There are only five Romney state Democrats left in the Senate and they're all up then. They all seem to be reasonably well liked so their losses aren't guaranteed, but even losing all of them would produce a tie. Additionally Nevada will be up that year providing a pickup opportunity, although Arizona (Flake only won by 3) might be out of reach in a midterm year.
Then again, WI, PA, FL, VA and OH could be on the map given that three of those states are swingy in general while WI and PA are susceptible to electing Republicans in midterm years. Can't take anything for granted.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
The devotion and worship Republicans have towards Gitmo and torture kind of undercuts their support of freedom and the constitution, idk.
I mean, it makes sense if they're the party of Trump, but they're both pretending they're not the party of Trump and all these Senators are saying that Gitmo should stay open because it's awesome.
I mean, it makes sense if they're the party of Trump, but they're both pretending they're not the party of Trump and all these Senators are saying that Gitmo should stay open because it's awesome.
Cesare Borgia
Banned
A good comparison would be 2008 and 2004. McCain's camp knew for quite some time that he was going to lose. Overall Romney's camp went in feeling they were in good position to win if certain things went their way in Ohio and some other states. I'd compare their mindset moreso to how Kerry's folks went into election night: underdogs but hopeful with a specific gameplan that ultimately fell apart when reality struck. Romney's GOTV tracker crashed on election day and from what I understand they were largely scrambling throughout most of the day. Whereas we pretty much knew it was over by 2PM.
They didn't expect blacks and young people to turn out so fiercely. I'm still amazed at the loyalty displayed by many black voters in Ohio who stood in line for hours, no matter what. The candidate matters. And the perception of how he or she is treated. It's 2016 and republicans still don't get that the way they disrespect Obama fuels a lot of support for him.
I think there's a good chance Donnelly loses, but clearly we're keeping the ND seat.
Black Mamba
Member
While on its face, I agree, I'm thinking by not even having hearings, that Obama's nominee is "stuck" and McConnell can pull them back in at any moment. Especially if it's summer.
And I don't think Obama would pull someone the moment McConnell flips. It would be both bad optics and I don't think Obama would do that to the nominee.
But we'll see how this plays out. Maybe Obama will pull back well before the flip can happen and then nominate someone else.
By not even having hearings/rejecting, I'm not sure how the process plays out in terms of nominating someone else.
VendettaRed07
Member
What exactly would a moderate Justice that Obama would appoint be like?
Its hard for me to imagine Obama would appoint a justice that the GOP would consider "moderate"
Its hard for me to imagine Obama would appoint a justice that the GOP would consider "moderate"
gutter_trash
Banned
authoritarianism in a nutshell.
Srinivasan.
Macho Madness
Member
OpinionSavvy sponsored by FOX5 Atlanta
Georgia
Clinton 57
Sanders 28
Trump 33
Rubio 22
Cruz 20
Kasich 9
Carson 7
Georgia
Clinton 57
Sanders 28
Trump 33
Rubio 22
Cruz 20
Kasich 9
Carson 7
Man.... Trump ceiling is real
We are kind of one.
Makes more sense than a 50 point Clinton lead, but still very bad news for Sanders. Can see more undecideds breaking for Clinton.
VendettaRed07
Member
Yeah, but, at least we're a super smart/funny/hot echochamber
cartoon_soldier
Member
Don't look at Opinion Savvy polls.
They want 10$ for you to get their cross tabs I mean...
They want 10$ for you to get their cross tabs I mean...
Aaron Strife
Banned
If Heitkamp stays queen of the north we're probably in good shape.
BoboBrazil
Member
red meat to the republican base, Fox News will defend them and it's #1 in ratings of any news channel
VendettaRed07
Member
I don't really know much about him. Is he pro-life/pro-gun/anti-immigration? Its hard for me to imagine that Obama would appoint anyone who was any of those things, but also hard for me to imagine the GOP accepting anyone who wasn't all three
TumblingHippo
Member
Out of nowhere remembering this post-2012 election commentary from a very upset Hannity, and reflecting on how it's actually being applied to the Republican party right now:
So was he right, or just wrong about what party it'd apply to?
So was he right, or just wrong about what party it'd apply to?
She would still win almost all the delegates there since SO MANY Dem delegates going forward are based on CD.
If they think Trump is going to tank them, stalling till Hillary comes in w/ a D majority lets them save face with their insano base.
Of course, stalling helps create that D majority, it'll be '98 all over again.
There's no proof of his positions on any of those as legal issues.
cartoon_soldier
Member
I actually rewatched MSNBC coverage of 2012 election night up until Romney concession. So good that night was. Romney butt hurt at Ohio call was so amazing to see.
Macho Madness
Member
Yeah, this is where it gets touchy for Sanders. He can be down just 20-30 points and get nothing.
You gotta throw Hilldawg 50 before you apply lol
Where did you find it?
Veritigo_X
Member
Not as amazing as seeing the Karl Rove meltdown.
I'll probably rewatch it at some point around the conventions. The margins of the states, the Senate call after Senate call for the Democrats, the emphasis on how demographically fucked the GOP is, Chris Matthews & Rachel Maddow audibly gasping or "ooooh"-ing off-camera when certain races or states were called.. it was an incredibly fun broadcast.
Edit: here's the first video of the playlist:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yRodqexUv84
Macho Madness
Member
You can start here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yRodqexUv84
I've watched it before.
What was wrong with Diane Sawyer that night?
Thank you, will rewatch as my pre-bedtime entertainment for this week
Cheers man
So it's going to be like South Carolina last Saturday with Rubio. "Big victory for Sanders! Reaches 35% in Georgia! (takes almost no delegates)"
Lol @ Obama invented dirty politics and tactics in a general. Completely glossing over people like Lee Atwater. Hell you can go back to Gilded Age Presidents and find political cartoonists penning stories and pictures about illegitimate children, tax avoidance, etc. Hell, Grover Cleveland was raked over the coals for being a bachelor.
Come on Rubio, you're dumb enough to fall for it. Please do.
Pretty much. He would be a great choice in my opinion.
Heck, even Ted Cruz is friends with him (for now).
Aside:
Couple of interesting articles about the Trump phenomenon
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-02-19/donald-trump-class-warrior
WSJ warning, but still an interesting read (don't agree with him about a lot of it, but still, interesting read)
http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trumps-america-1455290458
and finally the atlantic
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics...al-correctness-away-from-donald-trump/470271/
We are. I'm kind of sad we don't have more moderates / Republican posters on the OT GAF side of things. (Don't blame them in the slightest, though)
The vast majority of states going forward allocate the majority of their delegates in CD and fewer proportionally. So if she has the geographic advantage in the majority of these states, he's fucked.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Some of us try to pop it
oh its lit
BoboBrazil
Member
He's already attacked Trump in his rallies, but kind of indirectly. Thursday night is when the magic will happen.
Part of it's getting dog piled when they try and have a discussion, but part of it is also that the NeoGAF rules make a lot of the social conservative beliefs a tough needle to thread without getting banned.
theprodigy
Member
???
the CD delegates are still awarded proportionally, meaning as long as Bernie gets 15% he'll get at least one in each district
(he's still screwed but come on)
JetBlackPanda
Member
its also harder and harder to find a moderate republican that is under the age of 50.
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