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[ivysaur12]

What's the Kay Hagan talk about? Kinda felt bad watching her and other red state democrats try to exist in DC. Torn between endless pollsters telling you you're screwed, and democrat/WH officials trying to get you to vote for various stuff you can't get away with.

Well North Carolina Democrats are SUPER liberal now. And their Republicans are SUPER conservative. And the state is SUPER inelastic. So there are very few swing voters in North Carolina. More than almost any other state, it's just a turn out game between your very liberal and very conservative bases.

So Kay Hagan doesn't need to be super moderate to get elected, she actually just needed to motivate her base enough to go out. But she got Ebola-ed worse than most.

Also it's bad news for Kay.

 

[UltimaPooh]

My question is, do Sanders supporters understand how alone they are when it comes to people currently and formerly in public service?

Is this really a question?

 

[Holmes]

Does anyone else feel like it's good news that no-names like Deborah Ross is keeping it in single digits in North Carolina this far out? What happens with she wins the nomination and gets exposure?

Ugh, so excited. Kay Hagan 2.0.

Nobody can replace the kween, the ethereal goddess that was Kay Hagan.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

Is this really a question?

Yes. I've seen a lot of people say "Reich is a good guy! He supports Sanders!" under the delusion that one former cabinet member is enough to claim repute.

 

[ivysaur12]

Nobody can replace the kween, the ethereal goddess that was Kay Hagan.

She's passing the torch. Our new queen is Deborah Ross. Get involved.

 

[Box of Kittens]

Yep. You always write a concession speech. Always.

Romney reportedly made the same mistake in 2012.

That always floored me. I mean I can sort of understand it if you're far ahead in the polls, but Romney was behind. The way everyone in the Republican Party bought into some form of unskewing in 2012 is just incredible.

 

[Holmes]

She's passing the torch. Our new queen is Deborah Ross. Get involved.

I want to believe but Hagan was The One.

 

[UltimaPooh]

Yes. I've seen a lot of people say "Reich is a good guy! He supports Sanders!" under the delusion that one former cabinet member is enough to claim repute.

Oh. Okay.

I mean yeah I know we don't have the best endorsements or the backing of key advisors.

But hey... We just got Spike Lee! And I think he's awesome. Haha.

 

[Rafa=FedKilla]

I love Ben Carson on CNN right now talking about his Politico interview. Hahahaha

 

[Slacker]

Is he a smart guy? Is that why he surrounds himself with zero qualified foreign policy advisers, zero qualified economic policy advisers, nearly no democratic house representatives, any senators, any governors... etc.?

My question is, do Sanders supporters understand how alone they are when it comes to people currently and formerly in public service?

The Sanders True Believers have immersed themselves in a Bernie Bubble not unlike some right-wingers who only get their news from one source and assume unemployment is at 40% and Obama is hosting a show on MSNBC holding a Quran in one hand and a burning flag in the other. Look at r/politics on Reddit. I counted earlier today, and in the first 50 most popular posts it's 21 positive stories about Bernie and 20 negative stories about Hillary. In their minds they must think "Man all I hear all day every day is how awesome Bernie is and how terrible Hillary is. How can anyone vote for her?!?"

It's the kind of narrow thinking that unfortunately leads to this kind of reaction: https://imgur.com/rB3SOYg

 

[Macho Madness]

The Sanders True Believers have immersed themselves in a Bernie Bubble not unlike some right-wingers who only get their news from one source and assume unemployment is at 40%. Look at r/politics on Reddit. I counted earlier today, and in the first 50 most popular posts it's 21 positive stories about Bernie and 20 negative stories about Hillary. In their minds they must think "Man all I hear all day every day is how awesome Bernie is and how terrible Hillary is. How can anyone vote for her?!?"

It's the kind of narrow thinking that unfortunately leads to this kind of reaction: https://imgur.com/rB3SOYg

This is what I see too. I try to stay out of the bubble a little bit by reading what's said there, on Twitter, etc. because sometimes it feels like this place is the opposite. The story is often in between what's said on the extreme. If you follow some of the Intercept writers on Twitter, I get why you don't like Hillary Clinton. Because all they talk about is how horrible she is.

When I see the sort of bubble thing where it's all about how bad Hillary is, my mind switches to "Are you even paying attention to the Republicans?" It lends crediility to the idea that these people screaming about Hillary 24/7 did not know or pay attention to politics under the Bush administration, and they think it's impossible for a Republican to win the white house now.

 

[Black Mamba]

I think McConnell is making a huge mistake on the SCOTUS appointee. To not even hold a hearing would destroy them.

The Dems will make the race also about the Supreme Court. This is the BEST way to bring the young voters out in the election, again. Yes, I've seen the thread with the Pew Poll. But that's what's scary for the GOP. The youth vote doesn't know shit..yet.

Imagine all September commercial after commercial about how gay marriage will be reversed, abortion illegal, immigrants deported, etc all because Trump is President and nominated another Scalia. That will motivate them.

And also among minorities. Affirmative Action gone. And as I said, immigration issues. Drive the black and hispanic turnout numbers up.

If the Dems played their cards right, this can be a real issue. All those ads, mentioning how the GOP not only won't have a vote, won't even acknowledge Obama's nominee for 300+ days, longest vacancy by almost 3 times the previous!

And Obama will nominate someone not very liberal to damn them for good.

I really think this could be a massive mistake by the GOP. And they will lose the Presidency and Senate and Hillary can get them to nuke the filibuster to put in someone real liberal as a giant FUCK YOU for obstruction.

In the meantime, the GOP will lose almost every important court case from now til appointment.


edit: And in what world is it better to say "no hearings, no votes no matter what" than "hearings, but we'll vote no?"

 

[ivysaur12]

I want to believe but Hagan was The One.

The Son died for our sins. He was resurrected 3 days (four years) later and will reign eternal.

 

[Blader]

Oh hey poligaf.

I gotta sit down and watch it one day.

How is it? I've always meant to watch it.

It's interesting, insofar as you get an inside look into Romney's campaign and he and his wife seem like nice people (his son -- the older one I think -- comes off like a maniac). But then you're done watching it, and it's kind of like, well, so what? Maybe Mitt's a nice guy in person and he likes O Brother Where Art Thou a hell of a lot, doesn't mean I'd want him to be a president.

So the point of the doc seems a bit confused to me, but it's an interesting side of Romney you wouldn't normally see. And frankly, I like that he irons his sleeves while wearing them.

 

[B-Dubs]

Oh hey poligaf.





It's interesting, insofar as you get an inside look into Romney's campaign and he and his wife seem like nice people (his son -- the older one I think -- comes off like a maniac). But then you're done watching it, and it's kind of like, well, so what? Maybe Mitt's a nice guy in person and he likes O Brother Where Art Thou a hell of a lot, doesn't mean I'd want him to be a president.

So the point of the doc seems a bit confused to me, but it's an interesting side of Romney you wouldn't normally see. And frankly, I like that he irons his sleeves while wearing them.

Well, who doesn't like O Brother Where Art Thou?

 

[ivysaur12]

I can't find it for the life of me, but does anyone remember that NYT about how Southern Republicans were generally surprised that they lost the presidency in 2012? Started with some anecdotal story about these people coming the polls in Tennessee? and hugging because the reign of Obama was over.

 

[Blader]

I think McConnell is making a huge mistake on the SCOTUS appointee. To not even hold a hearing would destroy them.

I'm kind of two minds about this. On the one hand, not holding a hearing at all, sight unseen on any nominee, is quintessential obstructionism in a year where McConnell and Ryan are trying very to make their Congress look functional and productive, which could come back to haunt them. On the other hand, I feel like a protracted hearing over any Obama nominee exposes that obstructionism for even longer -- and the longer that news coverage runs, the worse it gets for Senate Republicans running for re-election.

So I see where he's coming from, but I also look forward to having him eat his "let's let the American people the next justice" when a Hillary and a Dem-controlled Senate push through an even more liberal nominee than who Obama would put up.

 

[Cerium]

I can't find it for the life of me, but does anyone remember that NYT about how Southern Republicans were generally surprised that they lost the presidency in 2012? Started with some anecdotal story about these people coming the polls in Tennessee? and hugging because the reign of Obama was over.

It was the Washington Post actually.

When does Nevada start voting?

 

[BoboBrazil]

Carson saying use truth serum on terrorists on CNN

 

[OmniOne]

I think McConnell is making a huge mistake on the SCOTUS appointee. To not even hold a hearing would destroy them.

The Dems will make the race also about the Supreme Court. This is the BEST way to bring the young voters out in the election, again. Yes, I've seen the thread with the Pew Poll. But that's what's scary for the GOP. The youth vote doesn't know shit..yet.

Imagine all September commercial after commercial about how gay marriage will be reversed, abortion illegal, immigrants deported, etc all because Trump is President and nominated another Scalia. That will motivate them.

And also among minorities. Affirmative Action gone. And as I said, immigration issues. Drive the black and hispanic turnout numbers up.

If the Dems played their cards right, this can be a real issue. All those ads, mentioning how the GOP not only won't have a vote, won't even acknowledge Obama's nominee for 300+ days, longest vacancy by almost 3 times the previous!

And Obama will nominate someone not very liberal to damn them for good.

I really think this could be a massive mistake by the GOP. And they will lose the Presidency and Senate and Hillary can get them to nuke the filibuster to put in someone real liberal as a giant FUCK YOU for obstruction.

In the meantime, the GOP will lose almost every important court case from now til appointment.


edit: And in what world is it better to say "no hearings, no votes no matter what" than "hearings, but we'll vote no?"

The only lens in which these actions make sense, is that they are not playing to us or an GE crowd.

This is primary politics and he is trying to sheild his caucus from their right flank, who would deem even a hearing and a no vote as giving in to the muslim dictator.

 

[CCS]

Carson saying use truth serum on terrorists on CNN

You what? Did he actually say that?

 

[BoboBrazil]

You what? Did he actually say that?

Yes.

 

[Slacker]

Carson saying use truth serum on terrorists on CNN

Geez. The man is hopeless. Clearly the solution is to shrink investigators down to microscopic size, have them fly a tiny ship into the terrorist's ear, then read information from his brain directly.

 

[CCS]

Yes.

I don't even know how to react to that.

 

[Cerium]

Jon Huntsman likes Trump.

Huntsman praised Trump’s “build here first” philosophy in terms of infrastructure, remarking that the U.S. should practice what it preaches abroad. He also embraced Trump’s rhetoric on campaign finance reform and the influence of money in politics, saying that the Manhattan real-estate mogul is “right about bringing aboard a new generation of the best and the brightest and wiping out the old Washington establishment and the old Washington culture.”

 

[Black Mamba]

The Mitt documentary was fascinating to me because of how in disbelief the Romneys and the campaign was to the loss.

They were truly in a bubble. they were so shell-shocked it was both hilarious and sad. They were all "I don't understand, this country wants 4 more years of Obama!? WHAAAT!?!?"


It's just another confirmation that the GOP doesn't get it. They don't understand where the country is headed at all.

But this is why this election is so fucking important. Because the only way for conservatives to have real long-lasting pull in our national politics going forward is by reshaping the Supreme Court. And if Hillary wins, replaces Scalia, Ginsberg, and hopefully Kennedy and Breyer, then it's over. Their replacements with Kagan and Sotamayer solidify generations there, plus at least 12 if not 16 years of other federal appointees.

They GOP will then be fighting the clock on numerous issues just like the have with same-sex marriage.

 

[Iolo]

Carson saying use truth serum on terrorists on CNN

Like mother's milk

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Jon Huntsman likes Trump.

Trump hates the LDS church so this is fucking weird.

 

[Slacker]

Jon Huntsman likes Trump.

Well, now when people ask me, "Is there a single Republcan you could support?" the answer is apparently 'no.' Say it aint so John.

 

[Black Mamba]

The only lens in which these actions make sense, is that they are not playing to us or an GE crowd.

This is primary politics and he is trying to sheild his caucus from their right flank, who would deem even a hearing and a no vote as giving in to the muslim dictator.

But if they pass someone now, no one will remember in november that matters. Maybe they'll get some primaries I guess, but McConnell is old. He can retire after his term, already, ala Boehner and leave the party better than by playing this game.

he's risking an annihilation and a much more liberal justice replacing a really conservative one. This is just dumb.

I get that he's playing to the base, but by not even having a hearing and then rejection...it looks really stupid.

 

[maabus1999]

I think McConnell is making a huge mistake on the SCOTUS appointee. To not even hold a hearing would destroy them.

The Dems will make the race also about the Supreme Court. This is the BEST way to bring the young voters out in the election, again. Yes, I've seen the thread with the Pew Poll. But that's what's scary for the GOP. The youth vote doesn't know shit..yet.

Imagine all September commercial after commercial about how gay marriage will be reversed, abortion illegal, immigrants deported, etc all because Trump is President and nominated another Scalia. That will motivate them.

And also among minorities. Affirmative Action gone. And as I said, immigration issues. Drive the black and hispanic turnout numbers up.

If the Dems played their cards right, this can be a real issue. All those ads, mentioning how the GOP not only won't have a vote, won't even acknowledge Obama's nominee for 300+ days, longest vacancy by almost 3 times the previous!

And Obama will nominate someone not very liberal to damn them for good.

I really think this could be a massive mistake by the GOP. And they will lose the Presidency and Senate and Hillary can get them to nuke the filibuster to put in someone real liberal as a giant FUCK YOU for obstruction.

In the meantime, the GOP will lose almost every important court case from now til appointment.


edit: And in what world is it better to say "no hearings, no votes no matter what" than "hearings, but we'll vote no?"

It is also a rallying cry to not just vote D for President, but D for your entire ticket. The coat tails can be very dangerous for the GOP...especially if Trump is the nominee.

 

[VendettaRed07]

Carson saying use truth serum on terrorists on CNN

In any other election Ben Carson and his bizarrely hilarious antics would have been the #1 focus of everything. But he's been eclipsed by the Trumpster.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Remember Anakin Skywalker had to fall to give way to Luke.

All hail Darth Hagan

 

[Teggy]

Jon Huntsman likes Trump.

Huntsman would probably like nothing more than to tear the Republican party down so moderates have a say again, so this doesn't surprise me in a way.

 

[OmniOne]

But if they pass someone now, no one will remember in november that matters. Maybe they'll get some primaries I guess, but McConnell is old. He can retire after his term, already, ala Boehner and leave the party better than by playing this game.

he's risking an annihilation and a much more liberal justice replacing a really conservative one. This is just dumb.

I get that he's playing to the base, but by not even having a hearing and then rejection...it looks really stupid.

I agree it will backfire hard, but I'm just trying to figure out what they are thinking.

 

[Black Mamba]

It is also a rallying cry to not just vote D for President, but D for your entire ticket. The coat tails can be very dangerous for the GOP...especially if Trump is the nominee.

Yes, this is what I mean. Not just the Presidency, but especially the Senate and possibly the house.

I can easily envision a world where Trump is the nominee and is a disaster of a ticket. meanwhile, the Dems are motivated to vote because of the SCOTUS and Trump.

It might not turn the house but it can make it closer by a bunch. And it might flip the Senate more than expected providing a better outcome for the midterm as a result.

I agree it will backfire hard, but I'm just trying to figure out what they are thinking.

Oh, you are right. I just question their thinking, is all. I guess the GOP is just stupid at this point. They may not stop Trump and now they're likely destroying themselves on this issue.

 

[ivysaur12]

It was the Washington Post actually.

When does Nevada start voting?

Everyone should read this. It's a fascinating look into the dangers of the echo chamber.

 

[Macho Madness]

The Mitt documentary was fascinating to me because of how in disbelief the Romneys and the campaign was to the loss.

They were truly in a bubble. they were so shell-shocked it was both hilarious and sad. They were all "I don't understand, this country wants 4 more years of Obama!? WHAAAT!?!?"


It's just another confirmation that the GOP doesn't get it. They don't understand where the country is headed at all.

But this is why this election is so fucking important. Because the only way for conservatives to have real long-lasting pull in our national politics going forward is by reshaping the Supreme Court. And if Hillary wins, replaces Scalia, Ginsberg, and hopefully Kennedy and Breyer, then it's over. Their replacements with Kagan and Sotamayer solidify generations there, plus at least 12 if not 16 years of other federal appointees.

They GOP will then be fighting the clock on numerous issues just like the have with same-sex marriage.

The real kicker would be the GOP losing with a Rubio/Haley ticket.

I'd say they finally would do some soul searching after that but...

 

[Rafa=FedKilla]

The NYT hates Trump because it's owned by Mexico!

 

[Cesare Borgia]

The Mitt documentary was fascinating to me because of how in disbelief the Romneys and the campaign was to the loss.

They were truly in a bubble. they were so shell-shocked it was both hilarious and sad. They were all "I don't understand, this country wants 4 more years of Obama!? WHAAAT!?!?"


It's just another confirmation that the GOP doesn't get it. They don't understand where the country is headed at all.

But this is why this election is so fucking important. Because the only way for conservatives to have real long-lasting pull in our national politics going forward is by reshaping the Supreme Court. And if Hillary wins, replaces Scalia, Ginsberg, and hopefully Kennedy and Breyer, then it's over. Their replacements with Kagan and Sotamayer solidify generations there, plus at least 12 if not 16 years of other federal appointees.

They GOP will then be fighting the clock on numerous issues just like the have with same-sex marriage.

I still don't buy that 100%. Romney had a lot of the same polling data we had. The difference is that he also had consultants and pollsters adjusting bad polls to make them good, especially in relation to the youth and black votes. There were certainly people in the campaign who knew what was going to happen on election day, just as we did.

It amazes me that nearly eight years after 2008 the GOP/RNC hasn't caught up in terms of GOTV or basic infrastructure. They're too busy falling for consultant scams. This is part of the reason I'm not afraid of Rubio at all. His campaign's dismissal of even barebones RNC style election infrastructure is stunning.

 

[Slacker]

I agree it will backfire hard, but I'm just trying to figure out what they are thinking.

They're thinking:

- We will win the White House (wrong)
- We will win the Senate (wrong)
- We will win the House even though a majority of Americans will vote for Democrats (they're right about this one).

 

[Box of Kittens]

I think McConnell is caught between a rock and a hard place here. Letting Obama name Scalia's replacement tips the balance of the Supreme Court and the base knows it. If you're terrified of your own party's base then you could very well be afraid of doing anything to suggest you'd even entertain the idea of Obama getting to place a Supreme Court Justice. On the other hand, there is a serious danger of motivating the Democratic base which, all else being equal, was likely to be less motivated than the Republicans. I wouldn't be surprised to see more blue state senators follow Mark Kirk's lead and hope that "well I'd totes be up for voting on Obama's nominee but golly-gee the leadership won't let me" is enough to save them. Democrats really need to hammer home the message that voting for (insert name of "moderate" blue state senator) is a vote for McConnell, obstruction, and a hard-right Supreme Court.

 

[Chezzymann]

I really hate how CNN talks over these rallies. I don't give a shit about what you have to say, I wanna hear trump say stupid shit

 

[Black Mamba]

I still don't buy that 100%. Romney had a lot of the same polling data we had. The difference is that he also had consultants and pollsters adjusting bad polls to make them good, especially in relation to the youth and black votes. There were certainly people in the campaign who knew what was going to happen on election day, just as we did.

It amazes me that nearly eight years after 2008 the GOP/RNC hasn't caught up in terms of GOTV or basic infrastructure. They're too busy falling for consultant scams. This is part of the reason I'm not afraid of Rubio at all. His campaign's dismissal of even barebones RNC style election infrastructure is stunning.

I've read articles in the past about how Romney's team did just as you said, adjusting the polls.

In the documentary, Romney, and especially his family, really looked stunned at the defeat. Like, deer in the headlights stunned. I can't believe he faked that for a dude doing a in moment documentary.

 

[NeoXChaos]

WI Poll coming Thursday.

 

[Averon]

The Senate GOP is making a HUGE gamble here. If they deny Obama SC nominee and Hilary and the Dems wins the WH and Senate, there's nothing stopping the Dems from appointing a more liberal nominee. If, by some act of God, Trump wins the WH and the GOP keeps the Senate, then McConnell's decision would be correct. But that is a HUGE if to bet on.

The more prudent course of action is to work with Obama to get a more moderate pick through the Senate.

 

[Cerium]

The Senate GOP is making a HUGE gamble here. If they deny Obama SC nominee and Hilary and the Dems wins the WH ans Senate, there's nothing stopping the Dems from appointing a more liberal nominee. If, by some act of God, Trump wins the WH and the GOP keeps the Senate, then McConnell's decision would be correct.But that is a HUGE if to bet on.

The more prudent course of action is to work with Obama to get a more moderate pick through the Senate.

I want Hillary to nominate Goodwin Liu in 2017 as punishment for the Republicans.

 

[Dash_Riprock]

I've read articles in the past about how Romney's team did just as you said, adjusting the polls.

In the documentary, Romney, and especially his family, really looked stunned at the defeat. Like, deer in the headlights stunned. I can't believe he faked that for a dude doing a in moment documentary.

Lets be fair, EVERY Republican who got their news from Fox was surprised that day, since for 4 years Fox had spun the narrative that "real" Americans hated Obama and that the GoP retaking the white house was inevitable after his "failures."

Worst part is 8 years later and most still live in that bubble. Don't be surprised if come November you see the same shocked faces again.

 

[Black Mamba]

The only thing that would actually make sense that McConnell is doing is possibly this.

1. Refuse to sign off on any nominee

2. Wait til trump gets nomination

3. Wait til it becomes obvious Trump will lose

4. Take up moderate nominee before Hillary becomes Pres.

So hold off now until things shape up. If Rubio wins he might think they have a chance so it's worth waiting. But if it's obvious they'll lose the election, he'll cut his losses. And by then it might be too late to be primaried as well.

 

[Basileus777]

McConnell probably figures that he still has time to change his mind in a few months. And I expect he'd do so if it becomes clear that Trump is the nominee. If the Republicans gave any sway now it could strengthen the anti-establishment sentiment in the primary.