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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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R

RustyNails

Member
GnawtyDog said:
Rubio got nailed pretty hard no doubt about that. We'll see how it hurts him. The establishment is not going towards any other candidate so they'll downplay this using every means necessary - that includes the press they can and DO dictate. Whether Rubio and his camp build a response to this attack or not is inconsequential -- the initial burn is so blatant and big that it will define him of sorts aka the playbook.

What I found most gross was this GOP puppet stealing Obama's/Hillary's foreign policy in the middle-east and getting applauded for it - the ignorance of voters knows no bounds. Since he's basically an arm extension of the GOP establishment, basically a mouthpiece, kinda worse.
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I think the establishment and the donor class was feeling pretty good and making deals with Rubio PACS after Iowa. They are probably confused, furious and dialing into his campaign right now, and want to do a wait and see on how he does in NH.
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
The problem with the way Christie nailed Rubio is that it is not enough to have a rebuttal ready for when they come for him next time. The most efficient counter is simply to never give them that angle of attack again, and for that he'll have to completely change his methods and that.... that's a tall order.
 
B

Brawndo Addict

Banned
Ya'll overreacting like crazy. Debate moments like this are a flash in the pan. Every debate so far has had some ridiculously overblown "X destroyed Y" moment that doesn't matter whatsoever after the next day. People blowing stuff out of proportion in the twitter-sphere are the type of people who aren't watching these things to figure out who they want to vote for, they're watching it for entertainment. Meanwhile the actual people who are voting are still listening to the rest of the debate because they're not singularly focused on figuring out what the "it" moment to talk about on social media is.
 
U

User 406

Banned
Coriolanus said:
The problem with the way Christie nailed Rubio is that it is not enough to have a rebuttal ready for when they come for him next time. The most efficient counter is simply to never give them that angle of attack again, and for that he'll have to completely change his methods and that.... that's a tall order.
Click to expand...

latest
 
O

OrangeGrayBlue

Member
Coriolanus said:
The problem with the way Christie nailed Rubio is that it is not enough to have a rebuttal ready for when they come for him next time. The most efficient counter is simply to never give them that angle of attack again, and for that he'll have to completely change his methods and that.... that's a tall order.
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I really think Rubio's chances are overstated. He's going to lose NH. 2nd, 3rd, whatever. What's his path forward after that? What states does he win?
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
OrangeGrayBlue said:
I really think Rubio's chances are overstated. He's going to lose NH. 2nd, 3rd, whatever. What's his path forward after that? What states does he win?
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The strategy is simple. Get other establishment candidates out, if it's him vs Trump/Cruz then there are enough moderate voters in states coming down the pipleline for him to capitalize on it.

It relies on Rubio finishing 2nd in NH though.
 
O

OrangeGrayBlue

Member
Brawndo Addict said:
Ya'll overreacting like crazy. Debate moments like this are a flash in the pan. Every debate so far has had some ridiculously overblown "X destroyed Y" moment that doesn't matter whatsoever after the next day. People blowing stuff out of proportion in the twitter-sphere are the type of people who aren't watching these things to figure out who they want to vote for, they're watching it for entertainment. Meanwhile the actual people who are voting are still listening to the rest of the debate because they're not singularly focused on figuring out what the "it" moment to talk about on social media is.
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It's Saturday night. NH votes on Tuesday. That's just the right amount of time for these flash in the pan moments to matter.


Either way, I can't seem to get a good answer out of anyone as to how someone who is not Trump/Cruz wins this thing. Edit- didn't see cartoon_soldier's post above me when I posted this.


cartoon_soldier said:
The strategy is simple. Get other establishment candidates out, if it's him vs Trump/Cruz then there are enough moderate voters in states coming down the pipleline for him to capitalize on it.

It relies on Rubio finishing 2nd in NH though.
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Pretty sure polling shows that Rubio falls well short of Trump even if he coalesces the entirety of the establishment support.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
New Tweet from a TIME Magazine reporter:

Zeke Miller ‏@ZekeJMiller 1h1 hour ago
Bush aide: "Rubio donors calling our hq worried that his performance tonight has hurt his chances and reiterating openness to Jeb."
Click to expand...
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
OrangeGrayBlue said:
I really think Rubio's chances are overstated. He's going to lose NH. 2nd, 3rd, whatever. What's his path forward after that? What states does he win?
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1. Finish 3rd in the first 30 states.
2. Win Florida
3. He wins the primary!

That his strategy... And well... it's a bold strategy, we'll see how it pays off for him.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
I loved tonight, and I'd love even more for Trump to win NH and have Rubio, Cruz, Christie, Kasich, and even Bush form a second tier with 2 points between them. Nobody drops out.
 
O

OrangeGrayBlue

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
1. Finish 3rd in the first 30 states.
2. Win Florida
3. He wins the primary!

That his strategy... And well... it's a bold strategy, we'll see how it pays off for him.
Click to expand...

If he wants to stay in and try that, by all means. Anything that keeps non-trump support from galvanizing behind one candidate is cool with me.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Ecotic said:
I loved tonight, and I'd love even more for Trump to win NH and have Rubio, Cruz, Christie, Kasich, and even Bush form a second tier with 2 points between them. Nobody drops out.
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Dream outcome: Trump > Cruz > Christie > Jeb > Rubio > Kasich

I think Kasich is the most dangerous out of everyone in the general.
 
B

Brawndo Addict

Banned
OrangeGrayBlue said:
It's Saturday night. NH votes on Tuesday. That's just the right amount of time for these flash in the pan moments to matter.
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Even without the Superbowl on Sunday I think this would be dead by Monday. How many times did people think Trump annihilated Bush or whoever? These are good for news fodder the next day, but not much beyond that in terms of real relevance. The old conservative crowd that's going to turn out to vote isn't going to care much about this moment, they'll react to Rubio's performance as a whole in the context of the field.
 
O

OrangeGrayBlue

Member
Brawndo Addict said:
Even without the Superbowl on Sunday I think this would be dead by Monday. How many times did people think Trump annihilated Bush or whoever? These are good for news fodder the next day, but not much beyond that in terms of real relevance.
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Enough times for Bush to go from presumed anointed frontrunner to 5th place nationally?
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Brawndo Addict said:
Even without the Superbowl on Sunday I think this would be dead by Monday. How many times did people think Trump annihilated Bush or whoever? These are good for news fodder the next day, but not much beyond that in terms of real relevance.
Click to expand...

The only thing is, the media is only going to have this to talk about between now and then, They'll hold onto it and drill it in as hard as they can.

There is no universe in which this does not hurt Rubio. It may not be a permanently fatal blow, but his campaign couldn't afford a 2-3% point hit in NH.
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
Roland_Gunner said:
Am I the only one who assumed this was a joking, and pretty funny, reference to the Dems earlier schedule?
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Such optimism! We'll make a bernie supporter out of you yet!

Brawndo Addict said:
Even without the Superbowl on Sunday I think this would be dead by Monday. How many times did people think Trump annihilated Bush or whoever? These are good for news fodder the next day, but not much beyond that in terms of real relevance. The old conservative crowd that's going to turn out to vote isn't going to care much about this moment, they'll react to Rubio's performance as a whole in the context of the field.
Click to expand...

Iirc jeb's numbers did start tanking heavily after Don kept butchering him in the debates. Could just be the memory acting up.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Brawndo Addict said:
Even without the Superbowl on Sunday I think this would be dead by Monday. How many times did people think Trump annihilated Bush or whoever? These are good for news fodder the next day, but not much beyond that in terms of real relevance. The old conservative crowd that's going to turn out to vote isn't going to care much about this moment, they'll react to Rubio's performance as a whole in the context of the field.
Click to expand...

But Trump did ruin Bush. He went from being a presumed frontrunner to middling 5-6%, with a low-energy tag on his ass.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Brawndo Addict said:
Even without the Superbowl on Sunday I think this would be dead by Monday. How many times did people think Trump annihilated Bush or whoever? These are good for news fodder the next day, but not much beyond that in terms of real relevance. The old conservative crowd that's going to turn out to vote isn't going to care much about this moment, they'll react to Rubio's performance as a whole in the context of the field.
Click to expand...

Bush is tied right now with a guy who has already dropped out of the race on the Huffpo tracker. That's pretty damned dead. Anyone saw Jeb's performance on the debate that Trump skipped realizes that he's a much better candidate that this race shows, he's just been killed by Trump making him look weak and foolish.
 
B

Brawndo Addict

Banned
OrangeGrayBlue said:
Enough times for Bush to go from presumed anointed frontrunner to 5th place nationally?
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Do you really think it was those moments and not Bush's anemic campaign as a whole? You look at those stump speeches or town halls and the guy just sounds like he's trying out for varsity because his mom's making him do it. Bush slowly destroyed himself outside the debates (although I'm not trying to deny they didn't help the process along). It's not like his polls just bottomed out after each debate.

adam387 said:
The only thing is, the media is only going to have this to talk about between now and then, They'll hold onto it and drill it in as hard as they can.

There is no universe in which this does not hurt Rubio. It may not be a permanently fatal blow, but his campaign couldn't afford a 2-3% point hit in NH.
Click to expand...

The political media may keep it afloat, but your average American is more concerned about the Superbowl.
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
HylianTom said:
New Tweet from a TIME Magazine reporter:

Zeke Miller ‏@ZekeJMiller 1h1 hour ago
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Hilarious. This says more about donors being afraid of the Bush family than anything else IMO. Rubio has a far better shot at the nominee than Bush, that's simply a fact. And furthermore Bush has had multiple bad debate performances that didn't cause donors to split, yet one Rubio implosion causes them to jump back on a sinking ship...

I hate to sound like a Rubio spokesman but I think he'll be fine. He has the money to last, and the more the field narrows the better he'll look to donors. Plus Trump is sinking...
 
O

OrangeGrayBlue

Member
Brawndo Addict said:
Do you really think it was those moments and not Bush's anemic campaign as a whole? You look at those stump speeches or town halls and the guy just sounds like he's trying out for varsity because his mom's making him do it. Bush slowly destroyed himself outside the debates (although I'm not trying to deny they didn't help).
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You might say he's low energy.


Anyway, it's likely a combination of both. The extent to which it's one or the other is just conjecture, but I definitely think we'd be looking at a very different race without Trump having jumped in.


Cesare Borgia said:
Plus Trump is sinking...
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I'll see you in 3 days sir.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
OrangeGrayBlue said:
I really think Rubio's chances are overstated. He's going to lose NH. 2nd, 3rd, whatever. What's his path forward after that? What states does he win?
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The plan is to make him win everything starting between March 1st and March 15th, and building to a sizable national lead by April, thanks to both consolidation of anti-trump votes and Trump supporters becoming serious as it comes time to actually make a real decision about who to vote for.

Rubio would make up for the early loss of delegates by inheriting all the delegates from the dropouts. Plus some broken convention shenanigans if needed, forgiven by the fact that he's the clear leader in national polling by that point.
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
thepotatoman said:
The plan is to make him win everything starting between March 1st and March 15th, and building to a sizable national lead by April, thanks to both consolidation of anti-trump votes and Trump supporters becoming serious as it comes time to actually make a real decision about who to vote for.
Click to expand...

Is there any indication whatsoever that Mr. Robot is building the structure needed to pull this off?
 
V

Veritigo_X

Member
Brawndo Addict said:
The political media may keep it afloat, but your average American is more concerned about the Superbowl.
Click to expand...

The average American isn't voting in the NH primary. I think it's close enough to have an effect there. Rubio really needs 2nd and he's already competing with 3 other people, something like this could hurt him.
 
O

OrangeGrayBlue

Member
thepotatoman said:
The plan is to make him win everything starting between March 1st and March 15th, and building to a sizable national lead by April, thanks to both consolidation of anti-trump votes and Trump supporters becoming serious as it comes time to actually make a real decision about who to vote for.

Rubio would make up for the early loss of delegates by inheriting all the delegates from the dropouts. Plus some broken convention shenanigans if needed, forgiven by the fact that he's the clear leader in national polling by that point.
Click to expand...

That's a bold strategy. I think it's worth keeping in mind that it's exceedingly rare for a candidate to lose Iowa and New Hampshire and then come back to win the nomination. Maybe Rubio will pull it off, but the odds of any candidate doing that are low. If anyone other than Trump were poised to win NH, I don't think we'd be talking about how any candidate other than Cruz or Trump is worth discussing.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
OrangeGrayBlue said:
That's a bold strategy. I think it's worth keeping in mind that it's exceedingly rare for a candidate to lose Iowa and New Hampshire and then come back to win the nomination. Maybe Rubio will pull it off, but the odds of any candidate doing that are low. If anyone other than Trump were poised to win NH, I don't think we'd be talking about how any candidate other than Cruz or Trump is worth discussing.
Click to expand...

It's also exceedingly rare for someone with no history as a public servant becoming a major party nominee for president.

At this point, no matter what happens, this will go down in history books as a very exceptional primary.
 
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