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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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The problem is that it happened too early and only once. Have you ever been on the tilt a whirl ride where early in you're with a fat person and you hit a hill just right and you go fucking spinning? Like a five rotation spin? Then the rest of the ride you spend waiting to get another fiver but you only get a three rotator and mostly twos? That was tonight. Rubio blew but he blew SO badly early that it wasn't possible for it to happen again.

It really depends on what the news is talking about and right now they're talking about how poorly Rubio did.
 

danm999

Member
I just don't see what state Rubio wins after New Hampshire to turn things around in time.

Yeah it's early but there needs to be one Establishment candidate to take on Cruz or Trump and this thing just took everybody back to the drawing board.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
CNN going in on Cruz after the break, goddamn. First Trump shivs him at the end and not CNN piles on, bad night for Cruz and it couldn't happen to a bigger dick.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
The timing was awful, I agree. It shows some fundamental weaknesses, that really a lot of people in here have already noted. He is no GOP Obama.
But if in a few days he finishes strong, it will be forgotten, and whatever happens his debate prep is going to be much more thorough after this debacle I imagine.
Agree 100%

He will have a real response to this line of attack next week.
 
The timing was awful, I agree. It shows some fundamental weaknesses, that really a lot of people in here have already noted. He is no GOP Obama.
But if in a few days he finishes strong, it will be forgotten, and whatever happens his debate prep is going to be much more thorough after this debacle I imagine.

I guess that's a matter of wait and see. I predict a 3rd place finish for him in NH after tonight. And if you finish 3rd in both Iowa and New Hampshire, your campaign is done. There's no way around that. I don't think there's any historical precedence showing that's been overcome nor any indication going forward to think Rubio will break that precedent.
 
A third place finish would be bad. He managed to turn bronze into gold once, but you don't do that twice I agree. I don't think he needs to beat Trump though, the other three just have to do poorly enough that he becomes the GOP establishment's last hope.
It really depends on what the news is talking about and right now they're talking about how poorly Rubio did.
It's probably worth looking at which news though. Is it the biased liberal media or the fair and balanced one?
 

Aaron

Member
The timing was awful, I agree. It shows some fundamental weaknesses, that really a lot of people in here have already noted. He is no GOP Obama.
But if in a few days he finishes strong, it will be forgotten, and whatever happens his debate prep is going to be much more thorough after this debacle I imagine.
No amount of debate prep can save Rubio. He's the emptiest of suits. He's the black hole of the GOP.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I guess that's a matter of wait and see. I predict a 3rd place finish for him in NH after tonight. And if you finish 3rd in both Iowa and New Hampshire, your campaign is done. There's no way around that. I don't think there's any historical precedence showing that's been overcome nor any indication going forward to think Rubio will break that precedent.
I honestly don't see cruz getting second so do you think someone else will? Who and why? Jeborah?
 
I wouldn't go that far since he's still the most viable establishment candidate. But clearly his flaws are on display.
Nope, he's done. It's one of those critical moments in debates that happens every election. Not as succint and soundbitable, but he got skewered on all other points:

1. Targeted (hits him where it hurts, the notion is that he is a scripted robot): Nailed 100%.
2. Impactful: You bet...everyone is talking about it, from CNN, to MSNBC to ABC. Social media already all over it.
3. Soundbiteable: Not quite, but enough material in there to show him choke.

Apply those three things to any legendary moment in past (HW fucking up, Stockdale's "where am i", Biden nailing Rudy on verb, noun and 9/11, etc) and it stacks up.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Total overreaction. Quote me on Tuesday after the queen surprises the world by beating wacky Bernie.
 

daedalius

Member
Rubio is hilarious.

Also Hildawg's twitter right now is pretty great... and I just looked at it and its literally filled with gifs. This is kind of incredible.
 
CNN going in on Cruz after the break, goddamn. First Trump shivs him at the end and not CNN piles on, bad night for Cruz and it couldn't happen to a bigger dick.
Like a dog in heat they need to stay on that. Run that shit into the ground like Benghazi. Like Ben said, Cruz is taking that approach.
 
Christie is far too liberal for GOP base. Debate performances have not proved to be important at all.

The GOP primary has been so much about personality I almost think Christie can bluster his way past his policy issues. His bigger problem is that graveyard full as skeletons in his closet. No one is worried about him yet but that will come up if he ever breaks out.
 
I think Kasich takes the highest Establishment position in NH. I'm not 100% willing to give him 2nd, but it's possible. I think there's a small chance Cruz could get 2nd if Rubio falls.
 

Splendor

Member
How do we feel about Trump tonight?

Good, not great. One unique thing is that he felt above everyone, like a king watching court jesters dancing around. He won the Jeb exhange and turned the crowd for and against him whenever it served him and it was enjoyable to see.
 

HylianTom

Banned
How do we feel about Trump tonight?

Pretty optimistic. Tonight helped.

A while back, we spoke of the possibility that he wins three of the first four contests. If the establishment lane remains in disarray (the crab bucket metaphor), this looks really possible.

(Edit: I love the unity we've seen tonight. Hillary fans and Bernie fans, joining together in united disdain for that slate of candidates. Delicious.)
 
Ya, Trump acted like a front runner tonight. I think he did enough to prevent anyone from gaining momentum. He knew how to turn that crowd out. He's so fucking good at this it's scary.
 
Good, not great. One unique thing is that he felt above everyone, like a king watching court jesters dancing around. He won the Jeb exhange and turned the crowd for and against him whenever it served him and it was enjoyable to see.
That's exactly how a frontrunner acts.

Keep in mind Trump's threshold in a debate is way low. As long as he doesn't damage himself, he wins the debate.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
How do we feel about Trump tonight?

slide_230121_1047545_free-300x194.jpg


or

hil5.jpg
 
Rubio got crushed. Wasn't ready for prime time or the pressure of coming in as the guy with the target on his back. He could have gotten away with this on most nights given how weak the field is, however I thought multiple candidates did really good tonight. Christie was commanding from beginning to end. Kasich turned in a good performance. Even Bush did well overall. Cruz stumbled on waterboarding (I agree with him but clearly the base does not) but overall did well. Carson was bad as usual.

The brilliant thing about Christie's attack is that it colored the way I thought about every Rubio answer afterward. Even his good answers didn't resonate much with me because you could tell how canned they were. Sure, nearly everyone on stage gives canned answers. But hearing Rubio repeat his over and over made quite an impact.

Totally agree with this. Great summary.

Folks: we're on the verge of Trump winning a primary.

Wow.

If only PhoenixDark could be here to see it.
 
Nope, he's done. It's one of those critical moments in debates that happens every election. Not as succint and soundbitable, but he got skewered on all other points:

1. Targeted (hits him where it hurts, the notion is that he is a scripted robot): Nailed 100%.
2. Impactful: You bet...everyone is talking about it, from CNN, to MSNBC to ABC. Social media already all over it.
3. Soundbiteable: Not quite, but enough material in there to show him choke.

Apply those three things to any legendary moment in past (HW fucking up, Stockdale's "where am i", Biden nailing Rudy on verb, noun and 9/11, etc) and it stacks up.

Yes it was bad but the media still wants him to win, and they want him to overcome this misstep. If he does well in NH the media will be there to catch him with a "Rubio comeback" narrative.

It was somewhat beneficial that Christie smacked him down instead of the other establishment candidates. I don't think Christie is viable anywhere else, whereas Kasich just has to make it until Ohio. NH could be the end of Christie, and I think the establishment will still pick Rubio as their man.

Personally I'm more apt to believe Rubio will be taken out by scandal, not this.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Best case scenario happened tonight.

Trump was Trump.
Rubio was eviscerated.
Jeb was actually really good, which can take Rubio votes away.

Jeb could be the spoiler here for Rubio. He seems to have woken up, and that may siphon some Rubio support after NH.
 

GnawtyDog

Banned
Rubio got nailed pretty hard no doubt about that. We'll see how it hurts him. The establishment is not going towards any other candidate so they'll downplay this using every means necessary - that includes the press they can and DO dictate. Whether Rubio and his camp build a response to this attack or not is inconsequential -- the initial burn is so blatant and big that it will define him of sorts aka the playbook.

What I found most gross was this GOP puppet stealing Obama's/Hillary's foreign policy in the middle-east and getting applauded for it - the ignorance of voters knows no bounds. Since he's basically an arm extension of the GOP establishment, basically a mouthpiece, kinda worse.
 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
I just hope Hillary is preparing herself for when Trump inevitably brings up her campaign contributions.

I have a real bad feeling of how hard Trump will hit her on the campaign contributions. When she asks "when did I change my votes?", he's going to pull out the specific checks he wrote for each law.
 

Splendor

Member
I really don't think Yeb can spoil anything. If it's going to be anyone it will probably be Kasich.

But any governor doing well is bad for Rubio, all doing well, like they did tonight, is just that much worse. Making establishment voters split and flip flop on who to vote only gives Trump more time in a multi-man race, which is what he needs to win.
 

User 406

Banned
Let's dispel with this fiction that Marco Rubio doesn't know what he's doing. He knows exactly what he's doing. He's only here so he doesn't get fined.
 
Yes it was bad but the media still wants him to win, and they want him to overcome this misstep. If he does well in NH the media will be there to catch him with a "Rubio comeback" narrative.

It was somewhat beneficial that Christie smacked him down instead of the other establishment candidates. I don't think Christie is viable anywhere else, whereas Kasich just has to make it until Ohio. NH could be the end of Christie, and I think the establishment will still pick Rubio as their man.

Personally I'm more apt to believe Rubio will be taken out by scandal, not this.

No candidate who loses both IA and NH has a viable chance. Discussion of their candidacy after this point is only to fill airtime. After NH, this will be a race between Trump and Cruz. It is only our disbelief that one of them is actually going to get the nomination that keeps Rubio alive.
 
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