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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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T

teiresias

Member
HylianTom said:
Looks like she's narrowing the gap in a few polls, but it isn't being as widely reported.as those 25-30% gaps were earlier in the week. For people not paying attention, this could seem like a surprise on Tuesday night. She's looking more and more likely to beat the expectations game.
Click to expand...

Perhaps we need to keep people informed with a nice OT thread about these polls showing Sanders falling and Hillary gaining momentum in NH. It could be titled, "Sanders cratering in NH as Hillary gains on strength of actual policy positions."
 
E

East Lake

Member
campfireweekend said:
Thats all well and good, but I literally never mentioned income taxes. So a knee jerk response like that is super sad.

Especially when no one that responded to me cited anything they said! I thought there was a higher level of rigor in PoliGAF.
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You really need to come off your high horse. Going to school for economics doesn't give you a god given right to beat people over the head with your credentials and neither does citing a single paper. You need to make better arguments.
 
R

Retromelon

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Ted Cruz is the least likable candidate to ever run for president and he still might win the nomination despite being a terrible speaker and ugly as fuck too. What about when someone with Cruz's ideas actually comes around with some ability to connect to people emotionally?
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This is mostly subjective. If he was as ugly, unlikeable, and bad at oration as you claim, there's no way he he could have carried iowa. Dont let your personal feelings allow you to spout hyperbole.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
HylianTom said:
Oh goodness, no. Let the masses remain distracted by The Big Game and loops of MarcoRobo..
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This. Stealth rises are the best rises. If the media stays focused on the largest poll differentials, any tightening will be a win for Hillary in the expectations game.
 
C

campfireweekend

Member
FiggyCal said:
This isn't really a response to what you wrote. But that people are paid the marginal product of labor is basically Introduction to micro-economics that people learn in freshman year. And I specifically remember my professor saying it's all bullshit, but that he has to teach it. He's a Sraffian and I'm taking him right now for my History of economic thought class. I really should ask him to explain why he thinks it's wrong. He's an interesting guy.
Click to expand...

I was trying to simplify it a bit, because like you said you do learn a slightly different model once you get to further on labor economics courses. That's mostly because many firms are monopsonistic, and perfect competition is largely nonexistent.

It is always true at least that you hire until the way you've decided to pay your workers is no longer above their MPL.

East Lake said:
You really need to come off your high horse. Going to school for economics doesn't give you a god given right to beat people over the head with your credentials and neither does citing a single paper. You need to make better arguments.
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I cited 4 papers. They responded with none. I walked them through the scenario entirely. They didn't respond at all. Then someone accused me of being a Republican when one of my responses explicitly stated that I was liberal.

Yeah, it's me that should be held to a higher standard of argument.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
I mean, there are a number of reasons why employment numbers might not increase in response to tax decreases - demand could be saturated, employers could prefer to increase employee wages/hours rather than taken on new employees due to training costs etc., the labour supply could be constrained, businesses could doubt the permanence of the tax decrease and do nothing as per Ricardian equivalence (unlikely, but still) - but yes, in general tax decreases, ceteris paribus, will increase employment numbers.

The real question is whether this is meaningful because tax decreases are almost never ceteris paribus and actually have implications for spending; and spending decreases (usually) decrease employment numbers, so you then have to debate whether the current government programme or a tax cut has better employment effects. For example, cutting taxes on the top third of society and balancing this by reducing welfare progammes will almost certainly reduce employment.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
RustyNails said:
Monmouth posted? Moe 4.7%

Sanders 52
Clinton 42

Trump 30
Kasich 14
Rubio and Bush 13
Cruz 12
Click to expand...

Hmm, if it's 1. Trump (by 15), 2. Kasich, 3. Cruz, 4. Rubio, I think the media will create a "Rubio blew it!" narrative that will sustain for the next few months and Trump will be able to crush the upcoming states.
 
C

campfireweekend

Member
Crab said:
I mean, there are a number of reasons why employment numbers might not increase in response to tax decreases - demand could be saturated, employers could prefer to increase employee wages/hours rather than taken on new employees due to training costs etc., the labour supply could be constrained, businesses could doubt the permanence of the tax decrease and do nothing as per Ricardian equivalence (unlikely, but still) - but yes, in general tax decreases, ceteris paribus, will increase employment numbers.

The real question is whether this is meaningful because tax decreases are almost never ceteris paribus and actually have implications for spending; and spending decreases (usually) decrease employment numbers, so you then have to debate whether the current government programme or a tax cut has better employment effects. For example, cutting taxes on the top third of society and balancing this by reducing welfare progammes will almost certainly reduce employment.
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For sure, and all of that was in the CBO report I posted!

And once again, I'm not arguing for the policy, just stating what would happen if one was enacted. Especially agreed to the last part.
 
E

East Lake

Member
campfireweekend said:
I cited 4 papers. They responded with none. I walked them through the scenario entirely. They didn't respond at all. Then someone accused me of being a Republican when one of my responses explicitly stated that I was liberal.

Yeah, it's me that should be held to a higher standard of argument.
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You cited a paper and touted your credentials before any serious arguments were made. If you want to get all huffy about how people don't respect your degree I'm sure we can all cite Chicago school papers from people who took a couple more classes than you did.
 
B

Bronx-Man

Banned
PoliGAF, can we just dispel this notion that Barack Obama doesn't know what he's doing?

RustyNails said:
Monmouth posted? Moe 4.4%

Sanders 52
Clinton 42

Trump 30
Kasich 14
Rubio and Bush 13
Cruz 12
Click to expand...
If this becomes accurate for NH, the narrative is officially that last night was Rubio's Rick Perry/Howard Dean moment.
 
Z

Zona

Member
kess said:
It sure was nice having a former Supreme Court aide defining what is and what isn't torture. Just the moral clarity we needed.
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So your saying Ted Cruz is a Sword of Truth protagonist?

That makes a lot of sense, actually.
 
C

campfireweekend

Member
Makai said:
campfire demands a challenger. Crab scuttles in.
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And agrees with me! Yay, solidarity of economists.
East Lake said:
You cited a paper and touted your credentials before any serious arguments were made. If you want to get all huffy about how people don't respect your degree I'm sure we can all cite Chicago school papers from people who took a couple more classes than you did.
Click to expand...

Cool, do so next time. Or now. I'll read them then respond with relevant literature that I know. That's what an informed argument is.

I didn't know you were a young Republican though. What arguments are you gonna be making that demand citation from the Chicago school? We aren't arguing about the veracity of keynesianism, nor are we disputing whether there are multiplier effects from a tax cut. So?
 
P

PBY

Banned
I feel like Trump needs to do something non controversial just to get an extra media bump.


Another random endorsement would be nice right about now.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
campfireweekend said:
For sure, and all of that was in the CBO report I posted!

And once again, I'm not arguing for the policy, just stating what would happen if one was enacted. Especially agreed to the last part.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I was just agreeing with you plus providing some clarifications. I specialized into trade and political economy more than labour, so you're probably ahead of me on that front anyway.
 
A

Armaros

Member
East Lake said:
You cited a paper and touted your credentials before any serious arguments were made. If you want to get all huffy about how people don't respect your degree I'm sure we can all cite Chicago school papers from people who took a couple more classes than you did.
Click to expand...

When dealing with people that won't put forward concrete support of their arguments and then belittle someone education and then instantly label them an 'enemy', I think he should stay on his 'high horse' as you say.

One person has put forward more effort in their arguments and it's none of his detactors.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Makai said:
crab has a comparative advantage in politicaleconomy
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I do. Also in ethics, comparative government, and politics of the middle east.

I never settled into one discipline very well. :x I also almost went into physics before any of this and changed after my first year of my first undergraduate from history to PPE then specialized into economics before pursuing my masters on IR.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
RustyNails said:
Monmouth posted? Moe 4.4%

Sanders 52
Clinton 42

Trump 30
Kasich 14
Rubio and Bush 13
Cruz 12
Click to expand...

Holy shit. If this debate causes Rubio to fall, it will become the stuff of legends.

Imagine a finish like this:

1. Trump
2. Kasich
3. Bush
4. Cruz
5. Rubio

That is the absolutely best outcome imaginable and would blow up the race for another 2 months minimum.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Bronx-Man said:
PoliGAF, can we just dispel this notion that Barack Obama doesn't know what he's doing?


If this becomes accurate for NH, the narrative is officially that last night was Rubio's Rick Perry/Howard Dean moment.
Click to expand...
Poll was conducted largely before the debate:
Again, it is important to remember that the vast majority of interviews for this poll were conducted before last night’s GOP debate.
Click to expand...
Source
 
U

User 463088

Banned
I wonder how much (if any) of the Hillary momentum in NH (if it exists) is related to Rubio being viable? I mean, if I'm in NH, and I'm a Democrat, maybe I'm scared of supporting Bernie because Rubio could be the nominee? I mean, if I think Trump's the guy, then LOLZ who cares. But, if I'm afraid there's a chance someone actually dangerous could get the nod, maybe I'm a little more pragmatic in my vote?

This is just me thinking out loud here. It's something I've been thinking about sense the Iowa caucuses. Like, my sorta maybe might be a boyfriend in the future and I were talking, if it gets to Ohio and it's still close, he's going to vote for Hillary. He likes Bernie, but he doesn't actually want Bernie to get the nod.

Because Bernie's support is so much dependent upon Independents, I wonder how firm that support is going to be. The GOP side looks more interesting, since the narrative is Bernie's going to beat Hillary by 30 points, so maybe a few cross back over and go into a booth where they think their vote is more important.

She's still going to lose NH. I'm not arguing otherwise. I'm not that delusional.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Bowdz said:
Holy shit. If this debate causes Rubio to fall, it will become the stuff of legends.

Imagine a finish like this:

1. Trump
2. Kasich
3. Bush
4. Cruz
5. Rubio

That is the absolutely best outcome imaginable and would blow up the race for another 2 months minimum.
Click to expand...
Would rather see Kasich finish lower. The 1-2 being Cruz for the entire primary would be the best case scenario for the Democrats.
 
C

campfireweekend

Member
FiggyCal said:
Any advice for a guy looking to get a graduate degree in econ, but got a d+ in stats?
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Can you retake it? That'll look pretty bad. Are you good with math? Meaning have you taken linear algebra and real analysis?

Those classes are super important for grad school.

Here's the source I use to gauge whether I'm ready.
 
F

FiggyCal

Banned
campfireweekend said:
Can you retake it? That'll look pretty bad. Are you good with math? Meaning have you taken linear algebra and real analysis?

Those classes are super important for grad school.

Here's the source I use to gauge whether I'm ready.
Click to expand...

Yeah. It really fucked up my gpa too.

It's actually a passing grade at my school. So I'm actually taking stats 2 and econometrics this semester despite the D+. But I'll definitely look into retaking it over the summer or something.

I'm pretty bad at math. I also got a C+ in calculus which I figure isn't that important.
 
I

Iolo

Member
HylianTom said:
These guys are following Rubio around New Hampshire today.

MarcoRoboTrolls.jpg
Click to expand...

domo arigato, marco roboto
 
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