Agree fully. Kasich is too dangerous, and I don't want him to get any kind of foothold. I'd love for Christie to pull-off a skin-of-the-teeth second place ahead of the others, just so that it looks like Trump is towering above the rabble.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada
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Agree fully. Kasich is too dangerous, and I don't want him to get any kind of foothold. I'd love for Christie to pull-off a skin-of-the-teeth second place ahead of the others, just so that it looks like Trump is towering above the rabble.
ugaboga232
Member
Why does econ need topology???? What black magic are you economists doing behind our backs...
User 463088
Banned
No, I think it'd be okay for Kasich to finish in 2nd. Keeping a different Establishment candidate in 2nd depending on the primary is a win/win for us. They may be calling for someone to drop out, but it'd be hard to really decide who should be the one to leave if they're all jockeying for 2nd/3rd each contest.
Are you reading what I'm writing. An informed argument doesn't start with "here's a paper, btw I took more classes than you did." That happen a lot at Berkeley? Maybe I'm missing something.
He is the biggest legitimate threat in the GE, but his infrastructure is basically non existent and he will further split donors for the establishment candidates if he does better than Rubio in the primary.
I'm not sure, I always thought most economic theory felt pretty disconnected.
I'll show myself out.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Also, ivy, I apologize. Clinton is picking up a bounce. I'm picking up the trend in my own aggregate so I can't really deny it. ;_; There isn't one nationally, but in NH I make it she's picked up about 3 points since Iowa while Sanders has lost 2, with undecided dropping 1 to make the other.
My aggregate performed pretty well in Iowa and I now also have some relevant data from this year for pollster accuracy which is fun. If you guys go back and check I actually beat 38's forecast in accuracy, woohoo! Right now for NH I'm predicting Sanders 55.6, Clinton 38.7, Undecided 6.7. That's pretty middle of the road, I guess. If undecideds splits equally, Sanders would just about scrape the 58.1% mark that I think is a good target, but it's definitely not performing as well as I'd hope and Clinton's trajectory is worrying. I don't think she'll win, but she could conceivably force Sanders to 12-12 on delegates with a good performance, which would be dreadful (obviously great for you guys). I definitely think Sanders has ground to make up if he wants to make a statement.
My aggregate performed pretty well in Iowa and I now also have some relevant data from this year for pollster accuracy which is fun. If you guys go back and check I actually beat 38's forecast in accuracy, woohoo! Right now for NH I'm predicting Sanders 55.6, Clinton 38.7, Undecided 6.7. That's pretty middle of the road, I guess. If undecideds splits equally, Sanders would just about scrape the 58.1% mark that I think is a good target, but it's definitely not performing as well as I'd hope and Clinton's trajectory is worrying. I don't think she'll win, but she could conceivably force Sanders to 12-12 on delegates with a good performance, which would be dreadful (obviously great for you guys). I definitely think Sanders has ground to make up if he wants to make a statement.
User 463088
Banned
Exactly. There is no where else outside NH where he's going to play well long enough to be a threat. If the GOP was smart, then yes. But their primary voters have shown, time and time again, they're not.
Jeb is the weird kid in school that you try to like, but he keeps being weird.
You owe it to us to share all your forecasts with us, you're just being shellfish otherwise
campfireweekend
Member
I think you are, because that was like the beginning of the argument.
I made a claim, which apparently upset tmarg, so he made a claim. I provided evidence for my claim, asking him to reciprocate and stop lecturing someone that is more learned on the subject than he is.
He responded, no evidence. Disastermouse joined in, again didn't provide evidence, called economists basically liars, questioned the integrity of the CBO when they're not a mouthpiece for Republicans (well at least they weren't in 2010!) They ask if there is something obvious that they're missing.
I detail exactly what they're missing in a long post, with 3 citations to back up what I said, again I'm providing the only evidence throughout this whole debate.
Someone calls me a Republican, says who need evidence when we have 100 year of experience.
Then you say I need to make better arguments.
And yes, generally any informed debate is made up of making claims and then providing citations. I'd hope that's how it is done at most universities.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
CCS is my mother, can confirm.
EDIT: Actually, CCS, which college are/were you? I don't think I ever asked. I was Balliol.
That's usually how it's done in here when we actually get to talk policy. The healthcare debate was good times.
Can confirm, am large female crustacean.
EDIT: In response to your edit, Jesus, the most entertainingly named of all the colleges. In my last year there. Balliol is a good college, Balliol Tuesdays were a staple of my first year
It's okay, this is what they made hugs for.
Hugs? I would demand alcohol.
I was not aware that Danny Glover, who was awesome in Predator 2 (see photo below) and of course, the Lethal Weapon movies, is a left-wing political activist, so his Bernie endorsement is cool, man, and obviously very welcome:
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
All good points, but I think it's missing the biggest reason why this is so damaging. Rubio is popular not because republicans think he would make the best president, but because he has the best chance to beat Hillary. A mistake like this makes Republicans start to wonder if he can make it through the general election without other similarly embarrassing mistakes.
The strategy is to pick the candidate that your opponent is most afraid of, and I think democrats got a lot less scared about Rubio after last night.
Daniel B·;194502581 said:I was not aware that Danny Glover, who was awesome in Predator 2 (see photo below) and of course, the Lethal Weapon movies, is a left-wing political activist, so his Bernie endorsement is cool, man, and obviously very welcome:
Danny is an interesting guy. He also does Haitian theater. He wanted to make a movie about Toussain Louverture, ut that apparently fell through.
I'll be honest, and I don't want to be too negative, but that's a pretty rough application. I've hard passed on ones with much better math grades. If you want to go to a top 20 program, it's going to be hard. Retake both calc and stats if at all possible. If not, you need to take more advanced courses, kill them, and have your recs tackle the question head on.
Analysis on econ applications is mostly a signal. Programs want someone who will be able to survive the first year and first round of prelims. Dedicated theorists do actually use it, but most empirical people probably won't.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
RCP is showing the signs of a Sanders retrenchment. Not sure why Crab was arguing against it so much. He's still going to win.
Sanders has 2 weeks make inroads with Latinos and Blacks. Wonder if he can close the gap in time.
Clinton still won IA.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/iowa-sanders-clinton-audit-218905
Clinton still won IA.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/iowa-sanders-clinton-audit-218905
Yes, you need to make better arguments. Generally ones that don't start by touting your academic record, which is a lot more self-absorbed and irrational coming from a trained economist than a layman on a forum being skeptical of the CBO.
Ogrekiller
Member
In other words:
Climate change is not happening because snow is still falling. I saw it, the experts honestly don't know what they're talking about.
Veritigo_X
Member
Can you go after campfire's actually arguments instead of campfire himself? Because this argument is boring as fuck.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Whoa.
Ogrekiller
Member
I read some books, and 3 people agree with me.
campfireweekend
Member
Touting an academic record that was directly relevant to the topic at hand.
What's your deal? Why don't you call them out if you're so set on fostering better discussion? The only reason I even mentioned Berkeley is because we're super liberal, and someone called me a Republican, and like no conservative economists come out of Berkeley.
And for the last time, it did not start with me touting my credentials. I had hoped by laying out that time line that'd you finally understand at least that.
You have talked about his education far more then he has in context of the arguments.
You haven't posted anything that isn't just attacking his credentials.
And you accuse him of needing a better arguement.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
I want to cut payroll taxes a decent bit for people making under $50,000 (and people over 60) while raising land taxes to pay for that cut. Probably would cause a decent bit of people to join the labor force and help use land more efficiently (therefore causing more economic growth) and be more equitable.
We've finally dispelled with the fiction that Barack Obama doesn't know what he's doing.
Yes!
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Maybe Rubio just really likes Final Fantasy and is one of those guys that debuffs bosses over and over and over again?
campfireweekend
Member
There are some confounding factors pertaining to how much the land tax would affect the hiring decisions of employers, thereby inducing them to offer a lower wage, and said wage!>reservation wage in its ability to bring people into the labor force.
But otherwise, definitely worth exploring.
That's what I was wondering, didn't sound much like ours but I just wanted to check.
Coriolanus
Banned
Oh to be an optimist.
That implies that Rubio has HU-MAN interests and enjoys leisure activities. As well all know, his analytics team and coders have determined that "enjoys football" is the best, most market-tested personality subroutine.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Here's the literature review of labor elasticity I was looking for.
https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/f...t_Research_on_Labor_Supply_Elasticities_0.pdf
https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/f...t_Research_on_Labor_Supply_Elasticities_0.pdf
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