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PoliGAF 2016 |OT12| The last days of the Republic

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B

Bronx-Man

Banned
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Wall of Shame:
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PoliGAF Thread Archive
PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting
PoliGAF 2016 |OT10| Jill Stein Inflatable Love Doll Reply to Thread
PoliGAF 2016 |OT9| The Wrath of Khan!
PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.
PoliGAF 2016 |OT7| Notorious R.B.G. Plans NZ Tour
PoliGAF 2016 |OT6| Delete your accounts
PoliGAF 2016 |OT5| Archdemon Hillary Clinton vs. Lice Traffic Jam
PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN
PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida
PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated
PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Jeb is a mistake. Jeb is a huge mess

2015
PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops RIP
PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print
PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On

2014
PoliGAF 2014 |OT2| We need to be more like Disney World/You are already Kay Hagan
PoliGAF 2014 |OT| Kay Hagan and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad News

2013
PoliGAF 2013 |OT3| 1,000 Years of Darkness and Nuclear Fallout
PoliGAF 2013 |OT2| Worth 77% of OT1
PoliGAF 2013 |OT1| Never mind, Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

2012
PoliGaf 2012 |OT6| OBAMA
United States Election: Nov 6, 2012 |OT| - Barack Obama Re-elected
PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi
PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down
PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread |OT2| This thread title is now under military control
US PoliGAF 2012 | The Romney VeepStakes: Waiting for Chris Christie to Sing…
PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

2011
PoliGAF 2011: Forum member gridlock causes inaction on thread title naming crisis
PoliGAF 2011: The 112th U.S. Congress is now in session: Want some graphs with that?

2010
Poligaf episode 2010: The Empire Strikes Back
PoliGAF 2010: On our way to November 2
PoliGAF 2010: Home Of "By The Time I Get To Arizona"

2009
PoliGAF Thread of PRESIDENT OBAMA Checkin' Off His List
PoliGAF Thread of PRESIDENT OBAMA's First 100 Out of the Way
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
QPac:

Florida; Rubio=48, Murphy(D)=44
NC: Ross(D)=46, Burr(D)=46
Ohio: Portman(R)=55, Strickland(D)=38
Florida: Toomey(R)=50, McGinty(D)=42

Bad poll for McGinty.

Murphy still trails by 6-7 points in the aggregate polls even though Rubio was the worst politician out of the 16 that lost to Donald Trump, just sad.
 
B

Bronx-Man

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
QPac:

Florida; Rubio=48, Murphy(D)=44
NC: Ross(D)=46, Burr(D)=46
Ohio: Portman(R)=55, Strickland(D)=38
Florida: Toomey(R)=50, McGinty(D)=42

Bad poll for McGinty.

Murphy still trails by 6-7 points in the aggregate polls even though Rubio was the worst politician out of the 16 that lost to Donald Trump, just sad.
Click to expand...
Damn, still neck & neck in NC. I think Hillary & Cooper's leads could help with Deb though.
 
G

Grief.exe

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
QPac:

Florida; Rubio=48, Murphy(D)=44
NC: Ross(D)=46, Burr(D)=46
Ohio: Portman(R)=55, Strickland(D)=38
Florida: Toomey(R)=50, McGinty(D)=42

Bad poll for McGinty.

Murphy still trails by 6-7 points in the aggregate polls even though Rubio was the worst politician out of the 16 that lost to Donald Trump, just sad.
Click to expand...

QPac always ends up as +R leaning as it generally finds the country to be a higher percentage of the white population than reality.
Their numbers in the Democrat primary were frequently well off reality since Bernie would benefit from white voters.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Rubio had nine months to find out that Trump was running a fake charity and probably was committing tax evasion.

Failed miserably and got owned by even Chris Christie who has been reduced to a puddle now.

And Patrick Murphy still can't beat him.

Sad.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
Asking again from the last thread:

What exactly happened in Ohio over the last few months to turn it so red? There was a time where Clinton led consistently or at least tied and Strickland wasn't completely dead
 
C

Cyanity

Banned
Mmmm, got that fresh thread smell. Things are looking UP today, GAF.


edit - we got through the last OT in 9 days. At this rate, we're gonna have ~four more OTs before the general. Crazy.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
metalslimer said:
Asking again from the last thread:

What exactly happened in Ohio over the last few months to turn it so red? There was a time where Clinton led consistently or at least tied and Strickland wasn't completely dead
Click to expand...

There's this idea that it's the GOP's rejection of free trade among the media.

Except for the fact that Portman adores free trade.

So... IDK.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
I would be really annoyed if McGinty started to struggle. However, the last 3 polls are Toomey +8, Tied, McGinty +6. Someone is wrong.

(I bet it's a 1-2 point race)
 
H

Holmes

Member
My cousin-in-law is having a costume birthday party for his one year old son. His (latina) mother said she should dress up as Hillary Clinton.

I thought I should crash the party and turn it into a GOTV operation. Set up a phone bank and bring spreadsheets of voters in Ohio.
 
G

Grief.exe

Member
metalslimer said:
Asking again from the last thread:

What exactly happened in Ohio over the last few months to turn it so red? There was a time where Clinton led consistently or at least tied and Strickland wasn't completely dead
Click to expand...

Ohio is nearly in the bottom ten states in the country for people with bachelor's degrees, and also has a disproportionately higher percentage of white population than the rest of the country.
Compare that to places like Colorado, Virginia, and New Hampshire which are all in the top ten in the country for people with Bachelor's Degrees, and, at least in the cases of Colorado and Virginia, more diverse populations than Ohio (not sure about NH). Hillary is taking advantage of the continued loss of educated white voters in the Republican party, while Trump is taking advantage of his own electoral advantages in uneducated white voters and a less diverse population. I very much doubt Ohio will be the important swing state it once was.

That would explain why Ohio is basically impossible for Hillary to win, but not why the polls were once showing Hillary in favor in the state. My only guess is the polling was inaccurate. I don't see those demographics ever being in the Clinton column in this election.

Aaron Strife said:
Highly doubt those PA numbers are on the mark. Certainly no one is treating it like he has an 8 point lead.
Click to expand...

I think the most encouraging thing about that QPac is that the Florida and North Carolina Senate races are so close in an R leaning poll.

If Hillary takes those states, we could see some huge Democrat gains.
 
C

Cyanity

Banned
"NSA contractor arrested for allegedly compromising highly classified computer codes, CBS News has confirmed."

Any news on this?
 
G

Grief.exe

Member
Mark Murray ‏@mmurraypolitics 6m6 minutes ago

If Clinton is ahead by 5-6pts nationally, being +2 in Ohio makes sense to me
 
H

Holmes

Member
But yeah, Strickland sucks. Oh well. If ticket splitting makes some voters in Ohio more open to voting for Clinton then so be it.
 
C

clevbrowns94

Member
Cyanity said:
This election's going to be a landslide, isn't it?
Click to expand...

I sure hope so. Of course, you have to adjust the definition of a landslide. Winning about 340 votes would be a Hillary landslide, which is around what Obama won both times. We'll never see another mega landslide like 1964, 1972, 1984 etc. again because of partisanship. Trump has proven you can put any idiot on the ballot and about half of the states would vote for him or her. David Duke could be the nominee and the deep south and most western states would vote for him.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
What sucks is that Portman benefits tremendously by standing next to Kasich who has denounced Trump. Strickland has no play here, unlike Hassan and Ross. He can't tie Trump to anyone.
 
H

Holmes

Member
How Brown performs will depend a lot on his opponent and the national mood. There's no doubt that 2018 will be more Republican than normal but we'll just have to wait and see how it goes. Remember a year ago Ohio was going to be a Democratic pickup and North Carolina and Missouri were completely off the map.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
your state is trending Republican . You've won 1! race for Governor 1986 and that was 2006.
Click to expand...
Sherrod Brown is incredibly well liked. He has deep union and blue collar support, something Strickland has not been able to replicate.The only person who would possibly be able to challenge Strickland is Kasich, and I don't think he wants to be Senator.

Sherrod Brown will be fine.
 
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