I'm struggling to come up with a map that gets to 270 without CA, OR, and WA, so I don't think it'll be called before 8PST/11EST.
!!!!!!!!
Jawja's gon' flip.
This is a wave election and Manmademan is right. I think the Democratic Party is going to win the House.
VA: so far, absentee votes cast are already 59% of '12 totals in Arlington/Fairfax/Prince William. Only 45% of '12 totals everywhere else.
VA: notably, heavily Latino city of Manassas Park is already at 69% of its '12 absentee votes cast, far outpacing the state average.
Early vote pattern beginning to emerge nationally: higher enthusiasm among liberal whites & Latinos vs. '12, lower enthusiasm among AAs.
She's taking NC, GA, and IA. I'm very bullish on TX now as well. Along with the PA and VA polls, I might be OD'ing on my uncut hopium.
Early vote pattern beginning to emerge nationally: higher enthusiasm among liberal whites & Latinos vs. '12, lower enthusiasm among AAs.
Flash-forward to Election Night:
Wolf Blitzer: "it is 10PM on the East Coast, and Georgia and Texas are TOO CLOSE TO CALL!"
PoliGAF: "HA!"
FreeRepublic: "we still have a path!"
I'm struggling to come up with a scenario in which Donald Trump realistically wins any of those, so they can be comfortably assumed before the polls close regardless. Unless the entire West Coast drops into the ocean on election night, news organizations won't wait on their final counts to call it.I'm struggling to come up with a map that gets to 270 without CA, OR, and WA, so I don't think it'll be called before 8PST/11EST.
Flash-forward to Election Night:
Wolf Blitzer: "it is 10PM on the East Coast, and Georgia and Texas are TOO CLOSE TO CALL!"
PoliGAF: "HA!"
FreeRepublic: "we still have a path!"
I'm struggling to come up with a scenario in which Donald Trump realistically wins any of those, so they can be comfortably assumed before the polls close regardless. Unless the entire West Coast drops into the ocean on election night, news organizations won't wait on their final counts to call it.
I want the networks to call it before the polls close on the west coast, just so we can drive the nail in Darrell Issa's political career.
So... What office can Michelle Run for in 2 years?
WAIT. Does FreeRepublic still exist?
I'm surprised they didn't implode after 2012.
Adam will create a new one for her....just Queen. The office's powers, all of them.So... What office can Michelle Run for in 2 years?
Anecdotal, but i have not heart anyone mention him down here.No. Johnson won't get 8% in Georgia. aLOLepo.
She's taking NC, GA, and IA. I'm very bullish on TX now as well. Along with the PA and VA polls, I might be OD'ing on my uncut hopium.
Mayor of Chicago? IL governor? Those are, honestly, too corrupt for her. Maybe IL senator, but there aren't any open seats left there, unless Dick Durbin retires in 2020.
I've been pretty confident we have the house now for a few weeks, and see no reason to change that prediction.
Back in the summer there were a fair amount of "what would it take for dems to win the house" articles, and consensus had that figure at +6 to +8 nationally. That's exactly where Wang was, in fact. The most pessimistic was Kyle kondik at +10 and Wang was sour on that estimate.
We're now in a situation where Hillary is comfortably POLLING at +10 among LV. not factoring in ground game from unlikely voters which gave Obama another 3 points to the final tally in 2012.
Still, there's been no change in the narrative that "dems can't win the house" despite credible polls rolling in well over +10 and early voting smashing records. It goes directly against where everyone whose job it is to predict these things put the bar back when +6 or +7 was a pipe dream, not a low level outlier.
Why? I think no one wants to be the first guy to stick his neck out on something impossible, then have to eat crow on November 9th.
It's far easier to hedge bets and play it conservative and act surprised when a flip happens, then have to walk back a narrative like Gallup did in 08 or Nate bronze did in the primaries.
How do we feel about Ohio? I feel like women will turn it blue, but I've got nothing to base that on.
WAIT. Does FreeRepublic still exist?
I'm surprised they didn't implode after 2012.
How do we feel about Ohio? I feel like women will turn it blue, but I've got nothing to base that on.
Isn't that gif from the macarenas thing?
I'm really curious what Fox News will look like on Election night. Karl Rove and Megyn Kelly won't fight again because neither believes in Trump. Basically every Fox News election night host except for Hannity and Trump surrogates will totally see this coming.
But they have to frame it in a good way for their audience. It's gonna be really interesting to see how well they walk the line between "Trump demolished, but Hillary doesn't have a mandate".
I just tried going there and its more confusing to navigate for me than 4chan
Clinton basically needs to win Georgia in order to hit 270 before polls close on the west coast. Even if she wins Georgia it is not going to be by enough of a margin to get called quickly....though, everyone is going to see where this is going once Florida and NC get called instantly and Texas is too close to call.
That first night of the DNC, everybody not named Michelle was forgottenMichelle is worth Bernie, Forma and Biden combined. Just an incredible surrogate this election.
That first night of the DNC, everybody not named Michelle was forgotten
Isn't that gif from the macarenas thing?
Why was 90's so corny. Answer me adam.
Ohio has some advantages going for Trump. Less educated population, less diversity, but hopefully women, African Americans, Hillary ground game, and general Republican depressed turnout pushes Hillary over the top.
I see Ohio being less and less of a swing state going forward.
Anecdotally, everyone I know from Ohio has either abandoned it or is living in complete despair (moreso than the normal amount living in Ohio induces). I'm a bit nervous about it but luckily we should be fine without it. My wife and I have finally convinced her mom to vote for Hillary so that's +1 at least.
Datawise, it's basically a tie.
I will live for the meltdowns on election day.
Follow up tweet from him is showing low black turn-out in VA as well:
Are we seeing this, though? I don't get the sense of that in anywhere besides maybe OH, and NC is a bit muddled.
For the race to be called before 11pm est, Hillary needs to carry FL, NC, OH, IA and NV before 11. It's possible. I think the media might hold back even if it's looking like she'll carry them all before then. The AP might, but CNN would.
Yeah everything was corny, fluff and lame. Still cant believe Hillary Gump was a thing and...it was a hit. Lol. I think the 9/11 attacks threw cold water on our faces as we were happily dreaming, starting the trend of gritty realism.It was all that hope and optimism. Made people very lame. The 00's took that right out.
Yeah, they won't "call" it, but they'll start projecting Clinton the winner when Florida gets called. Different terminology, same result; the horse race narrative dies pretty quickly on election night.They won't call it until the polls close on the west coast, but they'll certainly say that Trump's paths to victory are closed off if he lose NC, FL, NH, or PA. Basically all of the states Trump needs to flip to have a viable path are on the east coast. If he loses any of them, they can start talking about how it's basically over sans a miracle.
THIS IS STUPID.
Okay,
Bad Nate's model just moved 2 points towards Trump due to the following polls:
NC +4
VA+12
IA (tie) (that they adjust to +1
GA-1 (adjusted to a tie)
National +5
And then one of those Remington polls showing Trump ahead by 10 in MO.
THIS IS STUPID.