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[User 463088]

Also, a +7 and a +4 poll from NC dropped her chances today almost 3 points in the state.

 

[Y2Kev]

Okay,

Bad Nate's model just moved 2 points towards Trump due to the following polls:

NC +4
VA+12
IA (tie) (that they adjust to +1
GA-1 (adjusted to a tie)

National +5

And then one of those Remington polls showing Trump ahead by 10 in MO.

THIS IS STUPID.

I think the Iowa poll hurts her.

Defend this crabbu!!! You nate mills-Morris lover.

 

[Joeytj]

Okay,

Bad Nate's model just moved 2 points towards Trump due to the following polls:

NC +4
VA+12
IA (tie) (that they adjust to +1
GA-1 (adjusted to a tie)

National +5

And then one of those Remington polls showing Trump ahead by 10 in MO.

THIS IS STUPID.

You have to be kidding me?

EDIT: Nope.

How is that Iowa poll hurting her when Q has a big Trump lean? Even Harry Enten just tweeted that these are terrible polls for Trump, but his boss disagrees, I guess.

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

the media is against us!!!!

 

[Zukkoyaki]

You have to be kidding me?

EDIT: Nope.

How is that Iowa poll hurting her when Q has a big Trump lean? Even Harry Enten just tweeted that these are terrible polls for Trump, but his boss disagrees, I guess.

It was only a drop of 1.2% but how anyone could look at those poll numbers and think they hurt Clinton's chances is beyond me.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

The MO Remington poll sucks for Senate though

 

[A Human Becoming]

It moved 1.2% actually, not 2%. Still seems too large.

 

[SlimySnake]

How do we feel about Ohio? I feel like women will turn it blue, but I've got nothing to base that on.

this is just anecdotal but my one of my coworkers is voting trump and his girlfriend(wife to be) cant stand him. i havent asked if she is voting for Hillary but i refuse to believe suburban women will vote for him.

he is doing well in youngstown and other bluedog democrat cities so he can probably sneak in a win here, but i think it will be close either way. i want to believe that the student vote, women vote and black vote will be enough but most of the men at my company have no problems admitting they are trump supporters. and these are college educated men.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

The MO Remington poll sucks for Senate though

Landline only. Trash it.

 

[NeoXChaos]

For the race to be called before 11pm est, Hillary needs to carry FL, NC, OH, IA and NV before 11. It's possible. I think the media might hold back even if it's looking like she'll carry them all before then. The AP might, but CNN would.

Still won't get her there before 11:00 EST. She will need NE-2 which will close 2 hours before 11:00 EST at 9:00 EST or GA which will close 4 hours before 11:00 EST at 7:00 EST or Arizona which will close 1 hour before 11:00 EST at 10:00 EST.

*IA and NV close at 10:00 EST

 

[A Human Becoming]

Landline only. Trash it.

I don't think Sam Wang would. You shouldn't simply ignore a poll completely, just lump it in with the rest and look at the mean.

 

[User 463088]

I think the Iowa poll hurts her.

Defend this crabbu!!! You nate mills-Morris lover.

The previous Iowa poll from them was Trump by 7!

The MO Remington poll sucks for Senate though

Literally, those are shit. They are owned by a GOP operative. Their Ohio numbers were literally insane. Their NC were slightly worse.

 

[Chezzymann]

So I was reading the election results on free republic and they were saying things like "america is lost" and "america is done" etc. Kind of similar to talk I've heard from republicans like Marco Rubio saying that this election will decide what america will be, and that we'll lose our "republican values" forever if the democrats win.

Is this kind of rhetoric something that always is repeated in election years? Even when stuff like the supreme court isn't in play like this year? Is every election "The most important election of our lifetime" for some people?

 

[Basileus777]

The MO Remington poll sucks for Senate though

The Senate poll is from September. They only did a new Presidential/Gov poll.

I don't think Sam Wang would. You shouldn't simply ignore a poll completely, just lump it in with the rest and look at the mean.

The poll doesn't exist. Cohn linked to an old September poll and confused people.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Okay,

Bad Nate's model just moved 2 points towards Trump due to the following polls:

NC +4
VA+12
IA (tie) (that they adjust to +1
GA-1 (adjusted to a tie)

National +5

And then one of those Remington polls showing Trump ahead by 10 in MO.

THIS IS STUPID.

The article they did recently about their models made me realize they can be discounted completely, relative to others. The transparency was nice; I haven't looked at it since then.

Assumption No. 2: The FiveThirtyEight model is calibrated based on general elections since 1972.

What if we changed this assumption? If we calibrated the model based on presidential elections since 2000 only — which have featured largely accurate polling — Clinton’s chances would rise to 95 percent, and Trump’s would fall to 5 percent.

Derp.

 

[Teggy]

Looks like Aleppo lost his cool

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...ers-marijuana-interview-video?CMP=embed_video

That is one weird dude.

 

[HTupolev]

Still won't get her there before 11:00 EST. She will need NE-2 which will close 2 hours before 11:00 EST at 9:00 EST or GA which will close 4 hours before 11:00 EST at 7:00 EST or Arizona which will close 1 hour before 11:00 EST at 10:00 EST.

*IA and NV close at 10:00 EST

Yeah, but can you imagine how awesome it would be if, late at night, people are all "Clinton only has 269 electoral votes, the decision could still get passed to GOP Congress if we manage to get Washington, Oregon, and California!"

 

[Zukkoyaki]

I don't think Sam Wang would. You shouldn't simply ignore a poll completely, just lump it in with the rest and look at the mean.

True. Just explaining why it shouldn't bother anyone!

 

[A Human Becoming]

The article they did recently about their models made me realize they can be discounted completely, relative to others. The transparency was nice; I haven't looked at it since then.


Derp.

Why does that mean they should be discounted completely? Is 2000 the appropriate starting point or later?

 

[NeoXChaos]

Landline only. Trash it.

old poll from September........

 

[nature boy]

PANIC

Political Polls ‏@PpollingNumbers 5m5 minutes ago
#Florida
Dixie Strategies (10/25-10/26):

Trump 46 (+4)
Clinton 42
Johnson 2
Stein 1

http://www.newsmax.com/t/newsmax/ar...path=/Manage/Articles/Template-Main&oref=t.co

Spoiler

It's a total crappy pollster

 

[fantomena]

Not sure if it deserces it's own thread, but...

Sanders calls Trump a 'political coward' over voter suppression report

 

[kadotsu]

Derp.

It is almost like you can only make local predictions in a high complexity manifold. I'll have to ponder this shocking revelation.

 

[tedrotheredro]

PANIC

Spoiler

It's a total crappy pollster

"Dixie" strategies gives Trump the lead. Color me shocked.

 

[BotoxAgent]

Follow up tweet from him is showing low black turn-out in VA as well:

@Redistrict
VA: early vote is at only 36% of '12 total in Newport News, 37% in Norfolk, 37% in Petersburg, 28% in Portsmouth. Low AA enthusiasm.

 

[Grief.exe]

Yeah, but can you imagine how awesome it would be if, late at night, people are all "Clinton only has 269 electoral votes, the decision could still get passed to GOP Congress if we manage to get Washington, Oregon, and California!"

@billmitchell

Follow up tweet from him is showing low black turn-out in VA as well:

@Redistrict
VA: early vote is at only 36% of '12 total in Newport News, 37% in Norfolk, 37% in Petersburg, 28% in Portsmouth. Low AA enthusiasm.

They're all living in hell with no education, what do you expect?

 

[kirblar]

The article they did recently about their models made me realize they can be discounted completely, relative to others. The transparency was nice; I haven't looked at it since then.

Derp.

Thank you for finding the receipts on this. They will come in very useful.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

old poll from September........

In my defense, the article is written poorly and hard to decipher

 

[whyamihere]

Okay,

Bad Nate's model just moved 2 points towards Trump due to the following polls:

NC +4
VA+12
IA (tie) (that they adjust to +1
GA-1 (adjusted to a tie)

National +5

And then one of those Remington polls showing Trump ahead by 10 in MO.

THIS IS STUPID.

Alternatively, Hillary just gained a % in the Upshot model.

 

[Basileus777]

In my defense, the article is written poorly and hard to decipher

It's not, you just got linked to an old article. The new one never mentions the names Kander or Blunt.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

It's not, you just got linked to an old article.

Gotcha, cool!

 

[whyamihere]

Follow up tweet from him is showing low black turn-out in VA as well:

@Redistrict
VA: early vote is at only 36% of '12 total in Newport News, 37% in Norfolk, 37% in Petersburg, 28% in Portsmouth. Low AA enthusiasm.

Taniel actually says this is not what the data shows.

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/791728401518387201

@Taniel
@Redistrict are you sure? Those aren't the comparison trends that VPAP is providing.

 

[maquiladora]

CNN really milking this NEW MAP drama.

 

[clevbrowns94]

Okay,

Bad Nate's model just moved 2 points towards Trump due to the following polls:

NC +4
VA+12
IA (tie) (that they adjust to +1
GA-1 (adjusted to a tie)

National +5

And then one of those Remington polls showing Trump ahead by 10 in MO.

THIS IS STUPID.

Right, and he just had an article stating that the polls ARE NOT tightening, and those who say they are tightening are cherry picking. Then his model drops 4 percent or so based on nothing.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Why does that mean they should be discounted completely? Is 2000 the appropriate starting point or later?

I think Ghaleon means the difference compared to others can be discounted in the sense that: all the statisticians seem to agree about where the race is now, they just disagree about how much things can reasonably vary from this point. It'd be more worrying if they had a fundamental disagreement about the present state of the race, but they don't really.

At least, I think that's the sensible way to read it.

 

[RustyNails]

Aint no mountain HiIiiigh EnouGH

 

[Angry Grimace]

Honestly, I can't figure out anything with regard to polling until I hear from Dick Morris.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

I think Ghaleon means the difference compared to others can be discounted in the sense that: all the statisticians seem to agree about where the race is now, they just disagree about how much things can reasonably vary from this point. It'd be more worrying if they had a fundamental disagreement about the present state of the race, but they don't really.

At least, I think that's the sensible way to read it.

I believe you are spot on. I've seen Silver, Cohn, Enten and others all refer to this as about a 6-7 point race.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

Right, and he just had an article stating that the polls ARE NOT tightening, and those who say they are tightening are cherry picking. Then his model drops 4 percent or so based on nothing.

He had an article saying he was not going to take a stance either way.

Do you guys seriously think he's putting his hands on the balance? That this isn't just an accident of the math? Be real.

 

[Iolo]

Honestly, I can't figure out anything with regard to polling until I hear from Dick Morris.

Wasn't he busy a few days ago coordinating his outfit with his wallpaper?

 

[NeoXChaos]

This place has really turned against Silver. First Chuck then Silver. Whose next? Nate Cohn? Sam Wang?

 

[Loudninja]

This place has really turned against Silver. First Chuck then Silver. Whose next? Nate Cohn? Sam Wang?

If that start to suck sure.

 

[A Human Becoming]

I think Ghaleon means the difference compared to others can be discounted in the sense that: all the statisticians seem to agree about where the race is now, they just disagree about how much things can reasonably vary from this point. It'd be more worrying if they had a fundamental disagreement about the present state of the race, but they don't really.

At least, I think that's the sensible way to read it.

I think it is too. This place is so against Nate Silver I assume most criticisms are exaggerated.

 

[Y2Kev]

Crabbu you shall decry Nate three times before madonna becomes British

 

[Teggy]

36% of 2012 total - how can you call that "low" without the corresponding total from this point in time in 2012? All you can say is that it is "lower" than the current white and Hispanic returns.

 

[Emarv]

It's sad, because I honestly like just about all of the other 538 staff except for Nate. It'd be curious if Enten ends up jumping ship and working with Cohn or somewhere.

 

[Manmademan]

KAY HAGAN AT THE RALLY. SHE'S RUNNING.

...for what

 

[lyrick]

Dakota Access Pipeline protestors are rioting now, setting things on fire. This could get ugly.

How does one riot in the middle of a field in the middle of nowhere?

 

[Angry Grimace]

Wasn't he busy a few days ago coordinating his outfit with his wallpaper?

I watch this video every few months and laugh hysterically:

Dick Morris predicts Mitt Romney to Win 2012 Election in a Landslide - Nov. 4, 2012

His reasoning cracks me the fuck up.

 

[Basileus777]

It's sad, because I honestly like just about all of the other 538 staff except for Nate. It'd be curious if Enten ends up jumping ship and working with Cohn or somewhere.

I actually think 538's biggest issue is the writers they've hired. Enten is the only decent one they have in politics.