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PoliGAF 2016 |OT15| Orange is the New Black
- Thread starter Y2Kev
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hipsterpants
Member
I think they need to reboot their Tim Kaine when he officially becomes the VP. Their toddler Tim Kaine is kind of meh. I think they might have tried too hard to get away from what people were expecting.
Xamtheking
Member
First TLG and now this
Do you see into the future?
There are some voter suppression and intimidation stories already on Twitter that are spreading. I doubt it's super widespread, but it sounds like it's out there. False information about needing specific things for voting by poll workers, Trump supporters hanging out nearby with Confederate flags, people being asked for their ID in line and saying it's not good enough...
I see they're out in full force, as Trump demanded.
I see they're out in full force, as Trump demanded.
Armoured Priest
Member
As mentioned in the election thread, I did my part. +1 for Hillary and +1 for Feingold (plus other D candidates at local level).
superdeluxe
Member
Creating a Twitter list to follow for political polling stuff.
Who should I include?
Already have 538, Benchmarkpol, Sam Wang etc
Others?
Who should I include?
Already have 538, Benchmarkpol, Sam Wang etc
Others?
The illuminati tell the rich and powerful things through special chemicals dropped into cocktails at wall street bars
SciencePilot
Member
I voted for Clinton in California! Also voted to repeal the death penalty here. Let's do this!!
Doc Holliday
SPOILER: Columbus finds America
Hey someone posted a Twitter list of Trump supporters to follow during this glorious day.
I forgot to save and this thread is already too big lol
I forgot to save and this thread is already too big lol
Xamtheking
Member
Ok, thanks
I'm nominating you for second best mod of the year
plagiarize
Banned
Incase anyone could be bothered to read Nate Cohn's piece on the big issue with votecastr and similar things, here's the major issue in a nutshell.
It presumes voting throughout the day in any given state is completely uniform demographically. It makes no adjustments for the fact that a lot of millennials, for example, won't vote until after they get out of work.
Any group that tends to turn out early, it will project as seeing high turnout, and any group that tends to turn out late it will project as having low turnout.
So yeah, if you're looking at it right now, it's going to be way off.
It presumes voting throughout the day in any given state is completely uniform demographically. It makes no adjustments for the fact that a lot of millennials, for example, won't vote until after they get out of work.
Any group that tends to turn out early, it will project as seeing high turnout, and any group that tends to turn out late it will project as having low turnout.
So yeah, if you're looking at it right now, it's going to be way off.
sazzy
Member
yep
but this Slate turnout tracker is exactly what I wanted to see
lets see how it changes and how close it is to final results...
BobTheFork
Member
Is it time for r\The Donald Meltdowns?
I need the link to that page!
I need the link to that page!
Bill Mitchell @mitchellvii will be salty as hell.
Officerrob
Banned
+2 for Hillary here in VA, felt fucking GOOD to vote against Trump
Tell me this is getting a Hillary edit.
I used to be a bothsider back in 2012, though at least in my defense It was more in a positive way that both sides would do fine no matter who won. (I also favored Obama a bit more then Romney due to that 47% comment.)
I still kick myself to this day for not actually researching what was going on and favoring the candidates based on their position, rather then just feelings and whatever reached through my bubble of ignorance at the time. I also wish I got off my lazy bum and voted in 2012 too. What I hate even more is knowing so many people will follow suit and make the same mistake I did growing up. Hopefully more people realize what's at stake this year and vote accordingly.
https://www.reddit.com/r/the_meltdown/
HERE YOU GO.
Going to be a fun night.
I'm so waiting for reddit to instantly ban the_Donald when the election is called.
sazzy
Member
So, I'm half an idiot.
I live in Maine, and voted in 2008 but did not vote in 2012. So I thought that I would be registered, checking online it shows that I am for some reason not registered.
BUT, Maine is a state where you can register at the polls. So I can still do so, BUT again as I stated earlier in the thread I voted in a different town in Maine back in 2008 and have since moved. I have no mailing, as the one piece i had I stupidly tossed in the trash as junk mail a few days ago.
Instead of digging through said trash, which I 100% will if I have to in order to vote for Hillary, would something like my ID with the old address and a copy of my marriage license with the new address information suffice? I also have my lease agreement, would that work?
I live in Maine, and voted in 2008 but did not vote in 2012. So I thought that I would be registered, checking online it shows that I am for some reason not registered.
BUT, Maine is a state where you can register at the polls. So I can still do so, BUT again as I stated earlier in the thread I voted in a different town in Maine back in 2008 and have since moved. I have no mailing, as the one piece i had I stupidly tossed in the trash as junk mail a few days ago.
Instead of digging through said trash, which I 100% will if I have to in order to vote for Hillary, would something like my ID with the old address and a copy of my marriage license with the new address information suffice? I also have my lease agreement, would that work?
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
I was tempted to watch votecastr today but I think I'm tuning out until 7PM.
I'm not up on Maine voter law, but do you have a bill with the address on it? The lease agreement might also work.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Closed votecastr
Their Nevada EV analysis made me so nervous
Their Nevada EV analysis made me so nervous
Got you covered: https://mobile.twitter.com/pattymo/lists/election-night
(Not my list, but I saw it in this thread and bookmarked it immediately. Bitter tears here we come!)
Asma Khalid (@asmamk) will likely be nerding out about demographics all day, she's a good follow.
Abinash117
Member
You did the right thing.
I have a bank statement that has the new address, but I tossed it in the trash as I must have thought it was junk mail. If I have to, I can dig through the trash outside and find it, but would prefer not to, lol.
Call your local county office of elections.
Fragamemnon
Member
this is what made it not comsumable for me-there's real experts who have been diving into early voting for weeks and have a clear idea (or in the case of NC, no one has a clear idea because NPA and early voting changes make direct comps to 2012 hard) what's happening. It's hard to trust this unnamed site vs. analysis backed with historical data from experts in their state.
cartoon_soldier
Member
It's still fucking awful. Though I couldn't see their estimate of Clark Country due to shit UI.
superdeluxe
Member
He is the NY Times guy right? I'm following.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Part of the reason I believe she'll do 6% or better is because I think she'll run up huge margins in some red states like Texas. If she loses Texas by only a couple of points, that's tons of votes for her that will affect the final popular vote margin, despite not taking Texas.
superdeluxe
Member
Thank you!
When both Nates agree something is trash, it probably is trash. (538 lit them up during a podcast where they had the Votecastr people on)
Ok, I wrote a script that scrapes NC's election site every five minutes and extrapolates the margins per county to guess where the race will end up when it's all counted.
It also does a projection based on the Benchmark Politics prediction for each county.
The whole thing just gets emailed to me.
Who wants to be on the email list? The email looks like this (hardcoded data here, of course):
PM me if you want to get spammed every five minutes after NC polls close, via email, with a new hastily put together 'prediction'.
I'm thinking of making some changes to the format before tonight, like ordering the counties by Hillary winning % instead of alphabetically.
It also does a projection based on the Benchmark Politics prediction for each county.
The whole thing just gets emailed to me.
Who wants to be on the email list? The email looks like this (hardcoded data here, of course):
PM me if you want to get spammed every five minutes after NC polls close, via email, with a new hastily put together 'prediction'.
I'm thinking of making some changes to the format before tonight, like ordering the counties by Hillary winning % instead of alphabetically.
bluepolicebox
Member
Lease will work. I believe.
VendettaRed07
Member
Dumb question but when was the last time two candidates were "from" the same state? Both Hillary and Donald technically rep NY
cartoon_soldier
Member
I think they have a methodology too.
Fragamemnon
Member
I looked up the maine law. You need to re-register to vote in your town's main offices (such as a town hall) at the municipal registar ( http://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/munic.html ) . You can do that today and still vote. My read of the law is that you don't need to bring in proof of address since you were previously a Maine voter.
You can also vote out of precinct provisional, which is better than not voting at all if you can't make it to the registrar.
I hope he writes in Romney.
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