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PoliGAF 2016 |OT15| Orange is the New Black

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KyroLen

Neo Member
Thanks for all the help folks, appreciate it!

So excited for Trump to lose and Hillary to win. This is going to be so cleansing to see Trump's hatefulness and his supporters bigotry be crushed.
 
Ok, I wrote a script that scrapes NC's election site every five minutes and extrapolates the margins per county to guess where the race will end up when it's all counted.

It also does a projection based on the Benchmark Politics prediction for each county.

The whole thing just gets emailed to me.

Who wants to be on the email list? The email looks like this (hardcoded data here, of course):



PM me if you want to get spammed every five minutes after NC polls close, via email, with a new hastily put together 'prediction'.

I'm thinking of making some changes to the format before tonight, like ordering the counties by Hillary winning % instead of alphabetically.

I'd love to be on the list! I'll PM.

+1 for Hillary in...Rhode Island.
 

Wallach

Member
Part of the reason I believe she'll do 6% or better is because I think she'll run up huge margins in some red states like Texas. If she loses Texas by only a couple of points, that's tons of votes for her that will affect the final popular vote margin, despite not taking Texas.

I also think nationally Trump is just going to underperform. Total joke of a campaign in the last couple weeks.
 

kess

Member
Just voted in PA. I was greeted by a pair of Trump and Gary Johnson supporters outside the polling place, which isn't terribly surprising considering that there weren't any Democratic candidates running for the State House here. The Democratic party here needs to get better organized -- trying to call the local county apparatus was a exercise in futility.
 

sazzy

Member
I want Ralston to reply on the votecastr thing :(

Jon Ralston
‏@RalstonReports Jon Ralston Retweeted Sanjay Murti
OK, @votecastr has Hillary only winning Clark by 6.5 points! If so, Trump will win NV easily.

edit- you do need to chill out tho

whatever this project is, its EXPERIMENTAL
 
I have a bank statement that has the new address, but I tossed it in the trash as I must have thought it was junk mail. If I have to, I can dig through the trash outside and find it, but would prefer not to, lol.
The Dems have a number that puts you in touch with election lawyers. More knowledgeable than clerks.

On mobile but someone else can probably get it for you
 
Okay Nate still pinning all this uncertainty on undecided voters.

Nate, if they're still undecided by now, they're not gonna vote. Why is this so difficult to get?
 
So, I'm half an idiot.

I live in Maine, and voted in 2008 but did not vote in 2012. So I thought that I would be registered, checking online it shows that I am for some reason not registered.

BUT, Maine is a state where you can register at the polls. So I can still do so, BUT again as I stated earlier in the thread I voted in a different town in Maine back in 2008 and have since moved. I have no mailing, as the one piece i had I stupidly tossed in the trash as junk mail a few days ago.

Instead of digging through said trash, which I 100% will if I have to in order to vote for Hillary, would something like my ID with the old address and a copy of my marriage license with the new address information suffice? I also have my lease agreement, would that work?
Its not some reason, if you dont vote in a presidential election you're kicked off. You can skip midterms but you always need to vote for president to stay registered.
 

Zukkoyaki

Member
Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 2m2 minutes ago
So Stein on the ballot here (she's not), bizarre Clark numbers and wrong number (off by 150K) of reg voters there. Model probs, @votecastr?

Seriously guys, turn off Votecastr
 
The Dems have a number that puts you in touch with election lawyers. More knowledgeable than clerks.

On mobile but someone else can probably get it for you

sorry for the giant size img but worth it if it helps someone vote

IDA5K9s.png
 
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