Then goes on a riff about how firemen are being shot at going to fires. Everybody in this country is being shot at.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT15| Orange is the New Black
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Then goes on a riff about how firemen are being shot at going to fires. Everybody in this country is being shot at.
Yeah, the last poll to come out was in New Hampshire showing that it's leaning our way.
If we take the ones leaning our way:
NH
PA
WI
IL
And keep:
NV
..then the Senate is ours, 50-50, through at least January 2018.
This is even without considering the real chance that we pick-off one or two seats among:
MO
IN
NC
I'm antsy, but feeling okay.
Earthstrike
Member
What is votecastr, and what is its signifcance?
Voysa Reezun
Banned
I don't think Mitchell's high on his own supply. He's just being absurd so that he can post about how rigged things are tomorrow (or alternately about how awful minorities and single women are) and get some sort of talking head deal with Faux News.
His meltdown will be so much less authentic than, say, Sean Hannity's.
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
Someone is a fan of America History X!
balladofwindfishes
Member
Unless there's a record amount of ticket splitting, I don't see how we don't take the senate if she wins by 5% or more
This is what I don't understand. Why can't a republican just come out and make this completely non-controversial, reasonable statement? They would be completely revered by all moderates.
We are in the other timeline.
Donald Trump needs our help. His volunteers need pizza and snacks, stat.
https://twitter.com/paigelav/status/795659878085824512
https://twitter.com/paigelav/status/795659878085824512
Politicians are scarred of being primaried from the right, especially from some of these heavily gerrymandered districts.
Fragamemnon
Member
none of that money is going to pizza and snacks ffs
the behavior of 90% of the house republican conference only makes sense when put through the lens of "oh god don't primary me I don't want to have to work to get re-elected"
the behavior of 90% of the house republican conference only makes sense when put through the lens of "oh god don't primary me I don't want to have to work to get re-elected"
Yep I have reached my absolute limit. So glad this is dawn of the final day. I'm still listening to Trump for the lulz. I can't listen to Kellyanne and friends at all now.
Yup. Oddly, this feels like 2012, where we had a slate of Senate races that could've gone either way, but Obama outperformed his polling, won comfortably, and the Senate races all fell our way. (I still remember Chris Matthews gasping as each one was called in our favor, and Rachel Maddow grinning like the Cheshire Cat..)
streetsahead123
Banned
Nevada, Florida, and North Carolina suddenly blue on 538 on the day that Nate has to make his predictions. Convenient!
There were some bad polls for Ross, Kander, and Bayh - Ayotte and Hassan look like a tie poll wise, and Feingold being ahead by only 1 put what was thought to be a D lock back into play.
That said, no model can account for one campaign having a robust GOTV effort while the other campaign having nearly none (since..well it's never happened before) - so there are some qualitative adjustments that may help the Dems take the Senate.
Monmouth dropping a +6 Clinton poll today will definitely swing things in a lot of the swing states, and today is the day the polls that take early voting into account should drop, meaning that if they do drop, all the models will have at least some polls taking early voting statistics into account. (This is why they don't explicitly build Early Voting into the model, the late breaking polls, if done correctly, take those into account)
User 463088
Banned
It's real time ext polling. It's just going to eb released constantly throughout the day. It's meaningless information, but people are going to be in a tizzy because of it.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
In line to vote in Chicgao. Decently long line.
Already Torn
Banned
Now I'm just imagining all the trump surrogates sitting at a tiny circular table in an auditorium sadly eating pizza.Donald Trump needs our help. His volunteers need pizza and snacks, stat.
https://twitter.com/paigelav/status/795659878085824512
TheOfficeMut
Unconfirmed Member
Who would y'all suggest is the best NY Supreme Court Justice to vote for between the following: Rolando T. Acosta, Erika M. Edwards, Kelly O'Neill Levy, Doris-Ling-Cohan, Andrea Masley, Robert R. Reed, Rosalyn Richter, Troy K. Webber, and James d'Auguste.
Shao Kahn on the Lawn
Member
Someone must have just watched American History X.
The 12 year old running that one office doesn't have to worry, he's getting pizza after his soccer game anyway.
Trump thought a history movie would help him be President. He was sorely mistaken and found new purpose.
Abstrusity
Member
In the end, if you can get people that think like him to do some soul searching and introspection, then yeah, you've won. Because they'll come back a better person for it.
I know from personal experience.
That seems like a not great idea
Fragamemnon
Member
In most elections, the close Senate races tend to all go one way or another, and I don't expect tomorrow to be any different. That's why I'm so bullish given the leads CCM/Hassan/McGinty feel like they have opened up.
Why would I trust Upshot over Nate Silver, who hasn't steered me wrong since 2008?!
What I remember about this from 2008 was that Palin thought she could give a concession speech too.
Imagine if Pence had to give Trump's concession speech...
Roland_Gunner
Member
This last Clinton surge has to make us hopeful, but it wouldn't be unprecedented. In '96 Bill Clinton won by 9 points and the Dems lost two senate seats. Very different environment now though.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Glenn Greenwald's brain has rotten away.
Note: Republicans have sworn to make sure no Supreme Court seat ever gets filled if Hillary becomes president and they have sworn to impeach her over... something.
https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/795668946447925249
Note: Republicans have sworn to make sure no Supreme Court seat ever gets filled if Hillary becomes president and they have sworn to impeach her over... something.
https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/795668946447925249
Brawly Likes to Brawl
Member
Appealing to moderates is something that is no longer appreciated by the core base.
TheCochese
Banned
Yup. There are people that at some points in their lives don't appear to be redeemable, but finally start to get it.
Fragamemnon
Member
Can we get a sad Paul Ryan eating pizza jpeg like that great one from a few years ago with Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer after losing to Michigan St. PLEASE.
Glad I vote by mail.
TumblingHippo
Member
Shock that all the ones that are right now saying "don't judge people/friends for who they vote for" are all the ones who are supporting a bigoted candidate or whom won't be affected by them.
Roland_Gunner
Member
LOOOL That one of the craziest things I've heard this entire election cycle from a non-Trump supporter. I wish we could live in the Greenwald's distopia of moderate consensus.
Pittsburgh Hillary rally LIVE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWg76EYlCOQ
anyone with a better link? Don't want to support this Trump YT channel ha.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWg76EYlCOQ
anyone with a better link? Don't want to support this Trump YT channel ha.
Native Americans and college educated I think. It's hard to know though as there have been very few good polls made there, but pollsters have mentioned being curious about Alaska this year.
When they had this poll up on Fox News they were saying it was within the MOE in the chyron (it isn't)
Dystopia of moderate consensus?
We are in the other timeline.
Trump so openly racist and despicable he managed to make even Glenn Beck blush. Says a lot.
PopcornMegaphone
Banned
How are the early voting numbers looking in Pennsylvania?
metalslimer
Member
There is no early voting.
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