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PoliGAF 2016 |OT15| Orange is the New Black

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ABC/WashPo went T+1 into C+4
Fox News went C+2 into C+4
CBS News went C+3 into C+4

The NYTimes Upshot also showed Trump with improving chances over the past week and now it is leveling off in their model. As Silver's model is more reactive than Cohn's that makes sense.
The tracking poll is garbage but ignoring that. Do you actually think a one point movement in two consecutive polls from a pollster constitutes a trendzline?

The Upshot hasn't shifted from the 84 it declined to after a speight of tighter but still Clinton lead polls. It didn't dip below 84 afaik. So I don't know where you're getting improving chances from.
 

3phemeral

Member
Voted! +2 Hillary. I also got interviewed by the local news but it didn't seem like I gave the kind of juicy answers they were hoping for.
 
The tapping of the podium at the end of his speech was awesome.

Obama the legend- best parting gift to us would be to purge the land of Trump's politics
 

HylianTom

Banned
Suddenly feeling very good about the Senate.

Wisconsin's voting stats, Illinois gone, Nevada's amazing early voting, McGinty's stubborn-but-modest lead in Pennsylvania, and now Obama hypercharging Democrats in New Hampshire..
 
Clinton is campaigning in Ottawa County, Michigan.

EGJ3lWY.png


Makes no sense.

Even McCain won it,.

That really is hopeless. Despite Hope College.

That area is pretty racist, being just South and North of the only decently large AA population centers in Western MI. I guarantee unapologetic Trump supporters there.

That's just South of where I grew up. Western MI is not going Blue ever.
 

mo60

Member
I do hope the polls are underestimating Clinton, just because of how depressing it is to think that someone like Trump can outperform people like Romney and McCain, all because of an email server.

Like the only person at this point he will be outperforming is McCain in terms of the electoral collage. He won't outperform either Mccain or Romney in terms of the popular vote.
 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
The tracking poll is garbage but ignoring that. Do you actually think a one point movement in two consecutive polls from a pollster constitutes a trendzline?

The Upshot hasn't shifted from the 84 it declined to after a speight of tighter but still Clinton lead polls. It didn't dip below 84 afaik. So I don't know where you're getting improving chances from.

They also quadrupled the number of voters in the final ABC poll
 

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Sam Wang's article about how he arrived at 99% probability is kind of hilarious for managing to throw some much shade at Nate Silver.
 
Oh my god, he's going to use his concession to launch his new TV station

It all makes sense

This has a real chance to completely back fire as people figure out they have been conned out of stopping Clinton for a man who just wanted to sell them something.

I'm actually banking on that, because I don't think these people are that stupid to notice when Trump set it up before he lost.
 

Link

The Autumn Wind
Suddenly feeling very good about the Senate.

Wisconsin's voting stats, Illinois gone, Nevada's amazing early voting, McGinty's stubborn-but-modest lead in Pennsylvania, and now Obama hypercharging Democrats in New Hampshire..
Don't forget Patrick Murphy's corpse being dragged across the finish line.

 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Sam Wang's article about how he arrived at 99% probability is kind of hilarious for managing to throw some much shade at Nate Silver.

NERD FIGHT

Sad thing is, Nate could simply point at 2014 and laugh (PEC basically completely screwed the pooch on 2014).

There's a reason 2014 is completely left out of his explanation :p
 

HylianTom

Banned
Elise Foley of HuffPost has done a state-by-state chart of when polls and bars typically close in each state:
CwsXyxRXgAItrK5.jpg:large


(Fun fact: I didn't know what "last call" was until I left Louisiana to go to college elsewhere..)
 

Boke1879

Member
Yea, but actually using his concession speech to do it?

I always thought it made the most sense. Especially with him pushing this rigged narrative. He'll concede or at least argue that it was rigged from the beginning and he'll call out the media.

He'll then go into a whole thing about how he'll create a network that's not biased etc.


I thought about this today at work. After the tweet came out saying the Trump camp is more realistic than the Romney one. What if Trump know's he's losing. But before Clinton reaches 270 he concedes. His reasoning will be it's rigged, but deep down it's so he won't be perceived a loser. He can always just say "I'm the one who backed out."

I clearly don't think that will happen but it's an idea I entertained.
 

Mike M

Nick N
He does already have that crappy Trump TV thing going on Facebook. As much as I think he'll start a network, it's probably for that.

Yeah, I don't think for a second Trump TV is going to be carried on TV anytime soon, but I'd expect it to expand beyond Facebook. Possibly something co-branded with Breitbart.
 

Spider from Mars

tap that thorax
That really is hopeless. Despite Hope College.

That area is pretty racist, being just South and North of the only decently large AA population centers in Western MI. I guarantee unapologetic Trump supporters there.

That's just South of where I grew up. Western MI is not going Blue ever.

My dude, where did you grow up? I was raised in Grand Rapids.
 

Tobor

Member
Yeah, I don't think for a second Trump TV is going to be carried on TV anytime soon, but I'd expect it to expand beyond Facebook. Possibly something co-branded with Breitbart.

Why go on regular TV at all? This is for courting alt-right nut jobs. It belongs on the internet.
 
Why is so much of the Internet against Hillary ? I mean I know the joke about neckbeards spending their lives on 4chan and whatever, but whatever the region of the Internet, if it's an article or tweet or video against or for Hillary - the comments are overwhelmingly full of Hillary hate (except perhaps nytimes comments - which for whatever reason they leave alone ).
 
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