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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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O

Ophelion

Member
Coriolanus said:
Nay? True? Egads, it is almost as if i'd omitted key information on purpose.
Click to expand...

I'll let you in on a secret: I knew this. I just wanted an excuse to post the phrase "Ben Franklin is my boy." It can never be said enough. ;-)

Edit: Ok, yeah, no I was just being a dumbass literalist. But if you can't throw up a semi-credible lie in your own defense on PoliGAF, where can you do it?
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Macho Madness said:
I was able to cobble together a look at March 15th's primaries and requirements. I'm not entirely sure of all of them but this is what I was able to find:

Ohio - Considered a "semi-open" primary. Means you must fill out a party affiliation form on primary day if you are not affiliated with either party. No crossvoting allowed. These tend to favor Sanders and Trump.

Florida - A closed primary. You must be a member of either party on election day to participate. Registration closed February 16th. These tend to favor candidates like Clinton, Cruz, and Rubio.

North Carolina - A "semi-closed" primary. Independent voters may vote in either primary but registered Democrats or Republicans can only vote in their respective primaries so no crossvoting is allowed. Registration closed already. Favors candidates like Clinton and Cruz.

Illinois - A closed primary. Registration is already closed. Favors candidates like Clinton and Cruz.

Missouri - A closed primary. Registration is already closed. Favors candidates like Clinton and Cruz.
Click to expand...

zgRApre.gif
 
M

MysticDistance

Banned
Macho Madness said:
I was able to cobble together a look at March 15th's primaries and requirements. I'm not entirely sure of all of them but this is what I was able to find:

Ohio - Considered a "semi-open" primary. Means you must fill out a party affiliation form on primary day if you are not affiliated with either party. No crossvoting allowed. These tend to favor Sanders and Trump.

Florida - A closed primary. You must be a member of either party on election day to participate. Registration closed February 16th. These tend to favor candidates like Clinton, Cruz, and Rubio.

North Carolina - A "semi-closed" primary. Independent voters may vote in either primary but registered Democrats or Republicans can only vote in their respective primaries so no crossvoting is allowed. Registration closed already. Favors candidates like Clinton and Cruz.

Illinois - A closed primary. Registration is already closed. Favors candidates like Clinton and Cruz.

Missouri - A closed primary. Registration is already closed. Favors candidates like Clinton and Cruz.
Click to expand...

Illinois is open for Dems.

EDIT: Found a more exact statement. Open for those who want to vote for the Democratic candidates, but the registration is closed as of February 16, so Dems and Independents had to register by then if they wanted to vote for Bernie or Hillary.
 
B

billeh

Member
Macho Madness said:
I was able to cobble together a look at March 15th's primaries and requirements. I'm not entirely sure of all of them but this is what I was able to find:

Ohio - Considered a "semi-open" primary. Means you must fill out a party affiliation form on primary day if you are not affiliated with either party. No crossvoting allowed. These tend to favor Sanders and Trump.

Florida - A closed primary. You must be a member of either party on election day to participate. Registration closed February 16th. These tend to favor candidates like Clinton, Cruz, and Rubio.

North Carolina - A "semi-closed" primary. Independent voters may vote in either primary but registered Democrats or Republicans can only vote in their respective primaries so no crossvoting is allowed. Registration closed already. Favors candidates like Clinton and Cruz.

Illinois - A closed primary. Registration is already closed. Favors candidates like Clinton and Cruz.

Missouri - A closed primary. Registration is already closed. Favors candidates like Clinton and Cruz.
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Uhhh, Illinois is 'semi-closed.' You just pick up the ballot for whatever party when you go to vote. Missouri is open, and so is Ohio.
 
P

PBY

Banned
Harry Enten ‏@ForecasterEnten 10m10 minutes ago
Next Tuesday could be Trumpfantastic. Or he'll lose 3 of those 4, and who knows where we

Harry Enten ‏@ForecasterEnten 11m11 minutes ago
So Kasich trails in Ohio. Rubio really trails in Florida. We have no polls from Missouri. There's a clown car pile up in Illinois... (1/?)

Not even taking shots, but 538 really in shambles this cycle lol
 
C

Cerium

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
CNN Polls:

In Ohio, Trump holds 41% to Kasich's 35%, with Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in third at 15% and Rubio in fourth with 7%.

And in Florida, Trump holds 40% to Rubio's 24%, with Cruz at 19% and Kasich at 5%.

On the Democratic side, Clinton leads Sanders 63% to 33% in Ohio and 61% to 34% in Florida. About 7 in 10 voters in each state say they have definitely decided whom to support.

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/09/politics/trump-clinton-lead-florida-ohio/index.html
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Imagine if Rubio comes in third in Florida.

Imagine.

Also I'm worried about Ohio, can someone do something about Kasich?
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
PBY said:
Harry Enten ‏@ForecasterEnten 10m10 minutes ago
Next Tuesday could be Trumpfantastic. Or he'll lose 3 of those 4, and who knows where we

Harry Enten ‏@ForecasterEnten 11m11 minutes ago
So Kasich trails in Ohio. Rubio really trails in Florida. We have no polls from Missouri. There's a clown car pile up in Illinois... (1/?)

Not even taking shots, but 538 really in shambles this cycle lol
Click to expand...

Trump's really thrown a wrench into the whole thing. Without him stoking all that anger I doubt this cycle is as unpredictable.
 
SlimySnake

SlimySnake

Flashless at the Golden Globes
PBY said:
Not even taking shots, but 538 really in shambles this cycle lol
Click to expand...
Nate screwed himself by not trusting the polls. i remember last election cycle he kept saying obama was going to win because the polls showed he was going to win.

then all of a sudden the same polls show trump was going to win and he changed his stance. makes no sense why he would do this.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
So Fiorina endorsed Cruz? Not surprised in the least. Guess he wasn't unlikeable enough so she had to push him over the top.
 
O

Ophelion

Member
SlimySnake said:
Nate screwed himself by not trusting the polls. i remember last election cycle he kept saying obama was going to win because the polls showed he was going to win.

then all of a sudden the same polls show trump was going to win and he changed his stance. makes no sense why he would do this.
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Like a lot of us, I'm sure his faith in humanity just demanded utter irrational disbelief that a human tumor like Donald Trump could end up the frontrunner of anything.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Plinko said:
So Fiorina endorsed Cruz? Not surprised in the least. Guess he wasn't unlikeable enough so she had to push him over the top.
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Can you imagine the scrunching faces she was making as she complained about Clinton
 
T

theprodigy

Member
Macho Madness said:
Just forget I said anything. Like I said, I tried.
Click to expand...

Yeah all the open, semi-open, semi-closed, closed primaries are confusing then there's caucuses on top of it all.

On that note, because I am bored and have too much time on my hands apparently, I went and calculated what the Democratic side would look like if they used Republican rules all the way through, including reallocating the Republican delegates to conform with the bonus delegates that Democrats would receive instead of Republicans (that took a while).

It would currently be 518 to 308 in favor of Clinton, not including Colorado because well who the fuck knows what the rules are on the Republican side there.

(fun fact: Sanders falling just short of 50% in Michigan costs him 35 delegates in this hypothetical world, lol winner take all thresholds)
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Black Republican said:
https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/707611782798413824

Rubio money men not tied to the campaign saying if florida internals look bad, bail the fuck out before super tuesday
Click to expand...

I'm trying to think how this would affect Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio, but Rubio is probably already so dead in those states that dropping out before might not be that big of a difference. PPP already had him at what, 5% in Ohio?

On the other hand, imagine how much this would piss off all those donors and groups pouring money into Florida if Rubio handed it to Trump before election day.
 
K

kmag

Member
PBY said:
Harry Enten ‏@ForecasterEnten 10m10 minutes ago
Next Tuesday could be Trumpfantastic. Or he'll lose 3 of those 4, and who knows where we

Harry Enten ‏@ForecasterEnten 11m11 minutes ago
So Kasich trails in Ohio. Rubio really trails in Florida. We have no polls from Missouri. There's a clown car pile up in Illinois... (1/?)

Not even taking shots, but 538 really in shambles this cycle lol
Click to expand...

The 538 'models' are ultimately polling aggregators with a bit of extra demographic weighting, past election modelling. Ultimately they're only as good as the base polls which as usual in primary tend to be spotty.

Their commentary has been a bit hit and miss but I think that's kind to be expected with a modelling system partly based on prior performance. This is a very unusual election cycle, but you'd expect initially the likes of 538 to stick by their modelling. The criticism I have of them is that it took them a bit longer than it should have to see the model (especially the endorsement stuff) was invalid this time around.

To be honest the best thing they've done is each candidates target path, which is largely simple math based on the most likely states but is pretty concise and nicely presented.
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
soul creator said:
lol, I feel like that's the case. I guess no one ever thinks that religion would have an influence on Democratic voters. I can see that intuitively, but it would be nice to see some actual numbers at least. Especially with all the recent discussion about voters in the South.

Not every religious person is an evangelical Republican, and not every Democrat is baby-eating atheist :/
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Yeah, I'd like to see that breakdown myself. I just think pollsters are of the opinion that there's nothing there. What I really want are trends over time to see if that religious support could ever be chipped away from the GOP.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
I really despise the RNC for suing for Clinton's aides emails/text and for Clinton's campaign emails with state AFTER she left. How about the RNC releases all of their emails with various campaigns. THE PEOPLE HAVE A RIGHT TO KNOW! Go fuck yourself Reince you drunk fuck. I look forward to DESTROYING your party and career come November.
 
B

Brinbe

Member
smfh, Rubio needs to see things through. I don't think he'll drop. After the debate on Thursday there's only a few days till Tuesday, there's no point. Drop next Wednesday and throw your support behind Cruz if you really want to fuck with Trump.
 
X

XenodudeX

Junior Member
CdIHvlsWAAAhkci.jpg:large
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Why does it matter if she's voting Bernie? She's acting like she doesn't want the free publicity of a potential president visiting her shop. Hillary has Bernie fans so fucking salty lately.
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
Hillary just needs to cash in on 90s nostalgia at this point. That's the only chance.

"To all millennials...how would you like to, In 2017, watch some new episodes of Twin Peaks, The X-Files, Full House, Samurai Jack, Gilmore Girls, Dragon Ball, Ducktales and The Powerpuff girls.. and then drive in your car filled up with sub $2.00/gallon gas to Circuit City to pick up Final Fantasy 7 and the new Hootie and the Blowfish album while the Clintons are in the White House. Sound good?! #MakeAmericaThe90sAgain"
 
S

Splendor

Member
Also a comment I like from that picture:
legalizetree "People are waking up and it's because us Bernie supporters are in the comments educating keep it up #feelthebern."
Click to expand...
Frankly Hilary has not been investing in enough Instagram comments, that is what made her lose michigan.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
VendettaRed07 said:
Hillary just needs to cash in on 90s nostalgia at this point. That's the only chance.

"To all millennials...how would you like to, In 2017, watch some new episodes of Twin Peaks, The X-Files, Full House, Samurai Jack, Gilmore Girls, Dragon Ball, Ducktales and The Powerpuff girls.. and then drive in your car filled up with sub $2.00/gallon gas to Circuit City to pick up Final Fantasy 7 and the new Hootie and the Blowfish album while the Clintons are in the White House. Sound good?! #MakeAmericaThe90sAgain"
Click to expand...

The funny part is all that shit is coming back, except for Ducktales.
 
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