andthebeatgoeson
Junior Member
Is it more than one poll?
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
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The previous Illinois polls were scrutinized immediately following Michigan. Whether or not the new ones are screening too optimistically for Bernie remains to be seen... though it is odd that he seems to be faring better there than Ohio.
But yeah, NC and FL are safe Hillary states. The other three are tossups.
Basileus777
Member
She's comfortably ahead in Ohio, and Illinois has been schizophrenic with the polls, some showing big Hillary leads, some a close race. Missouri is the only March 15th state consistently close in polling.
shinra-bansho
Member
This is neat:
Tracking TV ads in the 2016 presidential race
Hasn't been updated for a couple of weeks though.
Tracking TV ads in the 2016 presidential race
Hasn't been updated for a couple of weeks though.
Coriolanus
Banned
Macho Madness
Member
It's weird because you'd think Ohio would be closer and more favorable to Sanders but the polling hasn't shown that. Maybe that's just the Michigan wariness talking though.
There was a YouGov poll that had him up by 2 and PPP said it had a poll where Ohio and Illinois were close coming out tomorrow. Ohio is a little all over the place since the YouGov had Clinton up 9.
neurosisxeno
Member
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ois_democratic_presidential_primary-5567.html
In don't trust that first one, but other than that we have a +2 Sanders and +6 Clinton, which implies Clinton with a slight edge or a statistical tie.
EDIT: While only a single poll, Clinton sitting on only +7 in Missouri (Single poll, small sample size, unknown pollster)? Actually the more I read this poll the more interesting it is. There was only ~150 Democrat respondents but the policy questions have interesting results. 53% favor a path to citizen ship for immigrants, 52% say increase taxes Large Corporations, and 53% say increase taxes on Top Earners. They oppose defunding Planned Parenthood 46/42 (rest remain neutral on the subject).
In don't trust that first one, but other than that we have a +2 Sanders and +6 Clinton, which implies Clinton with a slight edge or a statistical tie.
EDIT: While only a single poll, Clinton sitting on only +7 in Missouri (Single poll, small sample size, unknown pollster)? Actually the more I read this poll the more interesting it is. There was only ~150 Democrat respondents but the policy questions have interesting results. 53% favor a path to citizen ship for immigrants, 52% say increase taxes Large Corporations, and 53% say increase taxes on Top Earners. They oppose defunding Planned Parenthood 46/42 (rest remain neutral on the subject).
He ruined Iraq because he just didn't give enough of a shit. He was given enormous power and responsiblity, and he treated it like a teenager borrowing his dad's car. If he was 'overwhelmed' he shouldn't have run for reelection. Instead, he went on vacation while the Middle East burned. So maybe he's not a monster, but his inability to any sort of role whatsoever in the rebuilding of Iraq was a major factor in the formation of ISIS, which isn't something that happened a decade ago. So he doesn't deserve a pass. It's his legacy. It's what his time as president has left the world, with consequences we'll be dealing with longer he's gone.
Well, I mean, yes, if you disregard the poll that shows Hillary way ahead, then the rest of the polls show the race being close. That's not too surprising!
It's hard to tell after Michigan since the polls were so off, and in a sort of infuriatingly obscure way. Many of the same pollsters got it pretty right on the GOP side in Michigan, and pollsters got the Mississippi Democratic side pretty right as well. But the Dem Michigan side...
Psychoward
Banned
The post you quoted is also equating political strategy to torture.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
Who saw this shit last night?
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
I remember when Ted Cruz was having a discussion with another student in college and the student mentioned that his mom had an abortion once, and how Cruz reacted by declaring the mother a whore who should burn in hell and then how Cruz cut off communication with that person, I was thinking "Wow, this is the guy that all American politicians should emulate."
I mean, my dad is posting pro-fascism stuff on Facebook right now after being inspired by Trump and I criticize him strongly, but I still show human emotion to him.
To my knowledge, we were supposed to provide the firepower and Europe was supposed to step in and clean up the mess. Apparently France, Germany, etc dropped the ball.
At first I was annoyed by the extreme absurdity of the tweet, but then started scrolling through the comments and he's getting eviscerated. Ironic coming from the party that has won only one popular vote in the last 25 years.
neurosisxeno
Member
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4Bi-iePG1O6bmx0c2hGNWFDRjQ/view
There's not a lot of information to inspire confidence in that poll.
Macho Madness
Member
I think what's happening with the polls right now is that pollsters are changing up their likely voter screens because Michigan spooked them, and some amateur pollsters are more interesting in releasing shock results to get attention (and a lot of amateur polls had Clinton up big in Michigan). It's funny how no one changed their likely voter screen after they were off of South Carolina by about 25% but whatever.
That looks terrifying.Who saw this shit last night?
Coriolanus
Banned
Indeed. The sad bit is that the line could've been avoided by simply saying "because our goal is to transition from coal to renewable sources".
Macho Madness
Member
Yeah, South Carolina actually was quite off. But it was the other way and it didn't change the outcome, so it was likely ignored.
Future Foundation
Member
Who saw this shit last night?
Oh my God, is that McKinnon?
They didn't learn enough of a lesson there. I think a recent North Carolina poll had black voters under 20%. That's absurd.
Politics is the art of human interaction. People seems to lose sight of the fact that at the end of the day, we all live in the country together, and it behooves us all to still maintain close and cordial personal relationships with as many as possible regardless of differences we may have in terms of policy.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
No way, Ted Cruz may be struggling to get his party to support him over actual Hitler, but personal interactions don't matter in politics.
neurosisxeno
Member
I think there's a difference between someone picking up undecideds to run up the score and results shifting 20 or so points and a completely different candidate winning than what everyone projected.
gutter_trash
Banned
McKinnon is not funny
Macho Madness
Member
I know there's a difference but the polling still was a ways off. I'm not saying it's incredibly reflective going forward. We don't even know if Michigan is.
I mean, even Marist and YouGov polls of Georgia, Tennessee and Texas seriously underestimated Clinton before Super Tuesday, and they had time to reweigh their samples to reflect what South Carolina showed before releasing their numbers.
Clinton didn't win because she picked up undecideds. Polls of South Carolina had Sanders in the mid to high 30's.
I've been watching Colony and thinking about what life under Trump's fascist regime would look like.
The Hispanics would be the first to go, obviously. That's been his entire platform. Then the media, when they try to cover it; he's talked about using the Singapore model of suppressing the press by bankrupting them with lawsuits. The inevitable protests will lead to a crackdown that will probably disproportionately target blacks. The Muslim ban will go into effect quickly, and after the next terror attack Trump might stop flirting with internment camps and just embrace them.
Although I don't think Trump has any particular antipathy towards homosexuals, gay rights would probably be one of the first things he'd bargain away to his crazy base. When it comes to the Supreme Court, I think he'd pull an Andrew Jackson and just ignore them.
Then America will finally be Great Again.
The Hispanics would be the first to go, obviously. That's been his entire platform. Then the media, when they try to cover it; he's talked about using the Singapore model of suppressing the press by bankrupting them with lawsuits. The inevitable protests will lead to a crackdown that will probably disproportionately target blacks. The Muslim ban will go into effect quickly, and after the next terror attack Trump might stop flirting with internment camps and just embrace them.
Although I don't think Trump has any particular antipathy towards homosexuals, gay rights would probably be one of the first things he'd bargain away to his crazy base. When it comes to the Supreme Court, I think he'd pull an Andrew Jackson and just ignore them.
Then America will finally be Great Again.
neurosisxeno
Member
Sanders voters didn't show up unsurprisingly.
2 Cubans and 2 Old White guys? Shit, the Democrats at least have a Woman and a crazy old Jewish man.
I think Florida polls are fucking up in the exact same way Michigan polls did. Check out this one, predicts 26% of Democratic Voters to be Black, I find that really hard to believe that Hispanics\Asians will only account for 7% of the vote.
Real talk he's not even buying the bullshit he's selling right now. You know he's behind the scenes planning on how they can salvage whatever is left of their party.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
I was first in pointing this out in this thread I think.
I've hated his self serving moral indignation since day one
Spoiled Milk
Banned
McKinnon is fucking hilarious. I was laughing so hard when I watched my recording this morning. I had to make that gif myself!
The most recent video showed she lied about it. Trump was actually right about this one.
SNL is not funny.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
You seem to be confusing the Iraq War with the immediate aftermath of 9/11. Don't call me stupid. The polling shows only a small fringe minority was against everything Bush was doing at the time.
Yup you can shit on Trump for various other things. No need to lie about something. If anything THAT helps him.
Psychoward
Banned
You were directly quoting a post about torture, implying that I and everyone else living in America should be held accountable for the torture of human beings because the president of my country did it.
Maybe don't make stupid statements then.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Maybe you shouldn't take statements so god damn literally to the point that you think it encompasses every single human being that lived in the country at the time. Here's how we as a nation feel about it now after the fact.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...ee1208-847c-11e4-9534-f79a23c40e6c_story.html
Now imagine what the numbers were back then. If you want to harp on your little semantics argument then go ahead but you know damn well what I meant.
shinra-bansho
Member
Looking at the demographic make up of the YouGov and Marist polls for both Illinois and Ohio.
The main difference seems to be that for Illinois they seem to have upped the proportion of independents, but not for Ohio. This is assuming the earlier polling was using a similar demographic make-up for both states to 2008 exits.
Ohio
2008 Exit:
Male/Female: 41/59
Black: 18%
Independent: 22%
Under 30: 15%
Marist:
M/F: 43/57
Black: 19%
Independent: 23%
Under 30: 18%
Illinois
2008 Exit:
M/F: 41/59
Black: 24%
Latino: 17%
Independent: 16%
Under 30: 15%
Marist:
M/F: 40/60
Black: 24%
Latino 14%
Independent: 25%
Under 30: 20%
Similar situation in YouGov. Also seems to be an underweighting of Latinos.
The main difference seems to be that for Illinois they seem to have upped the proportion of independents, but not for Ohio. This is assuming the earlier polling was using a similar demographic make-up for both states to 2008 exits.
Ohio
2008 Exit:
Male/Female: 41/59
Black: 18%
Independent: 22%
Under 30: 15%
Marist:
M/F: 43/57
Black: 19%
Independent: 23%
Under 30: 18%
Illinois
2008 Exit:
M/F: 41/59
Black: 24%
Latino: 17%
Independent: 16%
Under 30: 15%
Marist:
M/F: 40/60
Black: 24%
Latino 14%
Independent: 25%
Under 30: 20%
Similar situation in YouGov. Also seems to be an underweighting of Latinos.
TheLaughingStock
Member
The people who are dead and had their lives ruined were human beings too. Pres. Bush can't wind the clock back on the fuck ups he made as a decision maker. There's nowhere to move but face the consequences front and center. Tough.
Basileus777
Member
No one is defending GWB's actions, just the idea that one cannot be civil with him at a state funeral without it being a reason to condemn a candidate.
VendettaRed07
Member
She totes is
Psychoward
Banned
You shielded George Bush from criticism of torture because you said everyone supported it. So yes I think it's a bit silly to insinuate that I cannot call him a monster because other people agreed with him. I called him a monster then and a monster now. Sorry I took offense to being lumped in to the reason why people were tortured and that it was my fault. Maybe you should do a better job of explaining yourself next time instead of throwing the entire country under a blanket.
That's not true, I disclosed I had no problem with the funeral thing, I'm arguing with someone who thinks GWB is immune to criticism about torture because other people were bloodthirsty at the time.Basileus777 said:
neurosisxeno
Member
I don't think we can count on 24% of the vote being Black this time around, Obama brought out that demographic for a multitude of reasons. Hillary just doesn't have that kind of draw like 2008 Obama, and I think they are overweighing blacks more than they are underweighing Latinos.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
And yet the public wanted what he was dishing out so what does that say about us?
theprodigy
Member
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